2022-23 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The Indiana Pacers have a <0.1% chance of making the playoffs and a <0.1% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Tyrese Haliburton | T. Haliburton | 28 | -6 | +5.2 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Myles Turner | M. Turner | 24 | -5 | -0.6 | +0.9 | ||||||||
| Buddy Hield | B. Hield | 24 | -4 | +1.5 | -0.8 | ||||||||
| Andrew Nembhard | A. Nembhard | 24 | -2 | -1.4 | -0.5 | ||||||||
| Bennedict Mathurin | B. Mathurin | 25 | -2 | -0.8 | -1.1 | ||||||||
| T.J. McConnell | T. McConnell | 16 | +1 | 0.0 | +1.1 | ||||||||
| Chris Duarte | C. Duarte | 8 | -6 | -0.6 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Jalen Smith | J. Smith | 16 | -3 | -1.9 | -1.2 | ||||||||
| Jordan Nwora | J. Nwora | 20 | +2 | -1.6 | -2.4 | ||||||||
| Daniel Theis | D. Theis | 7 | -1 | -2.2 | +0.8 | ||||||||
| Aaron Nesmith | A. Nesmith | 15 | +8 | -0.8 | -0.8 | ||||||||
| Isaiah Jackson | I. Jackson | 13 | +5 | -2.1 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Oshae Brissett | O. Brissett | 11 | +4 | -1.0 | -1.2 | ||||||||
| George Hill | G. Hill | 5 | +5 | -1.5 | +1.0 | ||||||||
| James Johnson | J. Johnson | 4 | +4 | -2.4 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| Kendall Brown | K. Brown | 0 | SAME | -2.6 | -1.1 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -0.6 | -2.3 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.7 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.7 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 111-114 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 33 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1431 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1403). The weight given to Elo — 41% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1403). The weight given to Elo — 41% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1419 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Exp. min. per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||
| Tyrese Haliburton | T. Haliburton | 34 | +5.2 | -0.9 | |||||
| Myles Turner | M. Turner | 29 | -0.6 | +0.9 | |||||
| Buddy Hield | B. Hield | 28 | +1.5 | -0.8 | |||||
| Andrew Nembhard | A. Nembhard | 26 | -1.4 | -0.5 | |||||
| Bennedict Mathurin | B. Mathurin | 27 | -0.8 | -1.1 | |||||
| T.J. McConnell | T. McConnell | 15 | 0.0 | +1.1 | |||||
| Chris Duarte | C. Duarte | 14 | -0.6 | +0.1 | |||||
| Jalen Smith | J. Smith | 19 | -1.9 | -1.2 | |||||
| Jordan Nwora | J. Nwora | 18 | -1.6 | -2.4 | |||||
| Daniel Theis | D. Theis | 8 | -2.2 | +0.8 | |||||
| Aaron Nesmith | A. Nesmith | 7 | -0.8 | -0.8 | |||||
| Isaiah Jackson | I. Jackson | 8 | -2.1 | -0.6 | |||||
| Oshae Brissett | O. Brissett | 7 | -1.0 | -1.2 | |||||
| George Hill | G. Hill | 0 | -1.5 | +1.0 | |||||
| James Johnson | J. Johnson | 0 | -2.4 | -0.7 | |||||
| Kendall Brown | K. Brown | 0 | -2.6 | -1.1 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +0.4 | -2.2 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 112-114 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 36 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1459 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1403). The weight given to Elo — 25% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1403). The weight given to Elo — 25% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1445 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Tyrese Haliburton | T. Haliburton | 35 | +1 | +5.2 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Myles Turner | M. Turner | 29 | SAME | -0.6 | +1.0 | ||||||||
| Buddy Hield | B. Hield | 30 | +2 | +1.5 | -0.8 | ||||||||
| Andrew Nembhard | A. Nembhard | 23 | -3 | -1.3 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Bennedict Mathurin | B. Mathurin | 27 | SAME | -0.8 | -1.1 | ||||||||
| T.J. McConnell | T. McConnell | 16 | +1 | 0.0 | +1.1 | ||||||||
| Chris Duarte | C. Duarte | 13 | -1 | -0.6 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Jalen Smith | J. Smith | 16 | -3 | -1.8 | -1.2 | ||||||||
| Jordan Nwora | J. Nwora | 15 | -3 | -1.6 | -2.4 | ||||||||
| Daniel Theis | D. Theis | 10 | +2 | -2.2 | +0.9 | ||||||||
| Aaron Nesmith | A. Nesmith | 9 | +2 | -0.8 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| Isaiah Jackson | I. Jackson | 9 | +1 | -2.1 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Oshae Brissett | O. Brissett | 8 | +1 | -1.0 | -1.2 | ||||||||
| George Hill | G. Hill | 0 | SAME | -1.4 | +1.1 | ||||||||
| James Johnson | J. Johnson | 0 | SAME | -2.4 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| Kendall Brown | K. Brown | 0 | SAME | -2.5 | -1.1 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +0.8 | -2.1 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.2 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.2 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 108-110 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 38 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1473 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1403). The weight given to Elo — 25% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1403). The weight given to Elo — 25% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1455 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1457 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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