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UPDATED Dec. 8, 2022, at 7:28 AM

2022-23 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:Our preseason player projectionsRAPTOR player ratingsBuild your own team

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The Indiana Pacers have a 24% chance of making the playoffs and a <0.1% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePROJECTED PLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePROJ. PLAYER RATING
PlayerTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Tyrese HaliburtonT. Haliburton28-6
+4.5
-1.3
Myles TurnerM. Turner25-4
-0.9
+1.2
Chris DuarteC. Duarte21-3
+0.2
+0.3
Buddy HieldB. Hield28-3
+1.4
-0.7
Jalen SmithJ. Smith19-1
-1.4
-0.8
T.J. McConnellT. McConnell16-3
-0.9
+1.1
Bennedict MathurinB. Mathurin23+2
-1.0
-1.3
Daniel TheisD. Theis0-17
-2.2
+0.9
Andrew NembhardA. Nembhard22+7
-0.4
+0.4
Oshae BrissettO. Brissett12+6
-1.2
-0.1
Aaron NesmithA. Nesmith14+8
-1.2
+0.1
Isaiah JacksonI. Jackson10+4
-1.3
-0.2
James JohnsonJ. Johnson5-1
-2.3
-0.7
Goga BitadzeG. Bitadze5-1
-1.0
-0.9
Terry TaylorT. Taylor3+3
-0.5
-1.5
Kendall BrownK. Brown4+4
-2.6
-1.1
Trevelin QueenT. Queen5+5
-0.1
+1.0
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
0.0
-0.9
Points per gameWe combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.9 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
Points per game
We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.9 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
112-113
Rotation winsWe use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Rotation wins
We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
39
Rotation ratingThen we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
Rotation rating
Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1483
Team ratingWe blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1449). The weight given to Elo — 42% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.
Team rating
We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1449). The weight given to Elo — 42% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.
1469
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
PROJECTED PLAYER RATINGPROJ. PLAYER RATING
PlayerExpected minutes per gameExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Tyrese HaliburtonT. Haliburton34
+4.5
-1.3
Myles TurnerM. Turner29
-0.9
+1.2
Chris DuarteC. Duarte24
+0.2
+0.3
Buddy HieldB. Hield31
+1.4
-0.7
Jalen SmithJ. Smith20
-1.4
-0.8
T.J. McConnellT. McConnell19
-0.9
+1.1
Bennedict MathurinB. Mathurin21
-1.0
-1.3
Daniel TheisD. Theis17
-2.2
+0.9
Andrew NembhardA. Nembhard15
-0.4
+0.4
Oshae BrissettO. Brissett6
-1.2
-0.1
Aaron NesmithA. Nesmith6
-1.2
+0.1
Isaiah JacksonI. Jackson6
-1.3
-0.2
James JohnsonJ. Johnson6
-2.3
-0.7
Goga BitadzeG. Bitadze6
-1.0
-0.9
Terry TaylorT. Taylor0
-0.5
-1.5
Kendall BrownK. Brown0
-2.6
-1.1
Trevelin QueenT. Queen0
-0.1
+1.0
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+0.4
-0.6
Points per gameWe combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
Points per game
We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
112-112
Rotation winsWe use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Rotation wins
We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
40
Rotation ratingThen we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
Rotation rating
Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1499
Team ratingWe blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1449). The weight given to Elo — 24% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.
Team rating
We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1449). The weight given to Elo — 24% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.
1488
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePROJECTED PLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePROJ. PLAYER RATING
PlayerTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Tyrese HaliburtonT. Haliburton36+2
+4.5
-1.3
Myles TurnerM. Turner29SAME
-0.9
+1.2
Chris DuarteC. Duarte25+1
+0.2
+0.3
Buddy HieldB. Hield31SAME
+1.4
-0.7
Jalen SmithJ. Smith20SAME
-1.4
-0.8
T.J. McConnellT. McConnell17-2
-0.9
+1.1
Bennedict MathurinB. Mathurin22+1
-0.9
-1.3
Daniel TheisD. Theis17SAME
-2.2
+0.9
Andrew NembhardA. Nembhard13-2
-0.4
+0.4
Oshae BrissettO. Brissett5-1
-1.2
-0.1
Aaron NesmithA. Nesmith6SAME
-1.2
+0.2
Isaiah JacksonI. Jackson7+1
-1.3
-0.2
James JohnsonJ. Johnson5-1
-2.3
-0.7
Goga BitadzeG. Bitadze7+1
-1.0
-0.8
Terry TaylorT. Taylor0SAME
-0.5
-1.5
Kendall BrownK. Brown0SAME
-2.5
-1.1
Trevelin QueenT. Queen0SAME
0.0
+1.0
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+0.7
-0.8
Points per gameWe combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
Points per game
We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
108-108
Rotation winsWe use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Rotation wins
We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
41
Rotation ratingThen we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
Rotation rating
Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1503
Team ratingWe blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1449). The weight given to Elo — 23% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.
Team rating
We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1449). The weight given to Elo — 23% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.
1491
Playoff ratingFinally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.
Playoff rating
Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.
1492
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

At full strength vs. with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent