2022-23 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The New Orleans Pelicans have a 42% chance of making the playoffs and a 0.4% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Zion Williamson | Z. Williamson | 0 | -32 | +2.7 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Brandon Ingram | B. Ingram | 33 | SAME | +1.8 | -1.6 | ||||||||
| CJ McCollum | C. McCollum | 33 | -1 | +1.8 | -1.1 | ||||||||
| Herbert Jones | H. Jones | 28 | -1 | -0.9 | +2.7 | ||||||||
| Trey Murphy III | T. Murphy III | 31 | +2 | +0.7 | -0.1 | ||||||||
| Jonas Valanciunas | J. Valanciunas | 27 | +8 | -0.3 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Josh Richardson | J. Richardson | 20 | +7 | -0.3 | -0.8 | ||||||||
| Naji Marshall | N. Marshall | 20 | +3 | -0.8 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Jose Alvarado | J. Alvarado | 0 | -13 | +0.3 | +1.9 | ||||||||
| Dyson Daniels | D. Daniels | 12 | +9 | -2.7 | +2.1 | ||||||||
| Larry Nance Jr. | L. Nance Jr. | 15 | +9 | -0.7 | +1.6 | ||||||||
| Jaxson Hayes | J. Hayes | 7 | +1 | -2.7 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Kira Lewis Jr. | K. Lewis Jr. | 5 | +3 | -0.5 | -1.1 | ||||||||
| Willy Hernangomez | W. Hernangomez | 6 | +2 | -1.0 | +0.4 | ||||||||
| Garrett Temple | G. Temple | 3 | +3 | -2.1 | -0.1 | ||||||||
| E.J. Liddell | E. Liddell | 0 | SAME | -1.5 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Dereon Seabron | D. Seabron | 0 | SAME | -1.7 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +0.1 | 0.0 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.1 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.1 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 111-111 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 41 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1508 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1516). The weight given to Elo — 52% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1516). The weight given to Elo — 52% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1512 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Exp. min. per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||
| Zion Williamson | Z. Williamson | 32 | +2.7 | +0.1 | |||||
| Brandon Ingram | B. Ingram | 33 | +1.8 | -1.6 | |||||
| CJ McCollum | C. McCollum | 34 | +1.8 | -1.1 | |||||
| Herbert Jones | H. Jones | 29 | -0.9 | +2.7 | |||||
| Trey Murphy III | T. Murphy III | 29 | +0.7 | -0.1 | |||||
| Jonas Valanciunas | J. Valanciunas | 19 | -0.3 | -0.3 | |||||
| Josh Richardson | J. Richardson | 13 | -0.3 | -0.8 | |||||
| Naji Marshall | N. Marshall | 17 | -0.8 | -0.3 | |||||
| Jose Alvarado | J. Alvarado | 13 | +0.3 | +1.9 | |||||
| Dyson Daniels | D. Daniels | 3 | -2.7 | +2.1 | |||||
| Larry Nance Jr. | L. Nance Jr. | 6 | -0.7 | +1.6 | |||||
| Jaxson Hayes | J. Hayes | 6 | -2.7 | +0.1 | |||||
| Kira Lewis Jr. | K. Lewis Jr. | 2 | -0.5 | -1.1 | |||||
| Willy Hernangomez | W. Hernangomez | 4 | -1.0 | +0.4 | |||||
| Garrett Temple | G. Temple | 0 | -2.1 | -0.1 | |||||
| E.J. Liddell | E. Liddell | 0 | -1.5 | -0.4 | |||||
| Dereon Seabron | D. Seabron | 0 | -1.7 | -0.9 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +2.5 | +0.1 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.7 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.7 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 114-111 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 48 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1571 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1516). The weight given to Elo — 32% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1516). The weight given to Elo — 32% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1554 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Zion Williamson | Z. Williamson | 34 | +2 | +2.6 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Brandon Ingram | B. Ingram | 34 | +1 | +1.9 | -1.6 | ||||||||
| CJ McCollum | C. McCollum | 35 | +1 | +1.7 | -1.1 | ||||||||
| Herbert Jones | H. Jones | 30 | +1 | -0.9 | +2.7 | ||||||||
| Trey Murphy III | T. Murphy III | 25 | -4 | +0.7 | -0.1 | ||||||||
| Jonas Valanciunas | J. Valanciunas | 25 | +6 | -0.3 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Josh Richardson | J. Richardson | 16 | +3 | -0.3 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Naji Marshall | N. Marshall | 17 | SAME | -0.7 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Jose Alvarado | J. Alvarado | 15 | +2 | +0.2 | +1.9 | ||||||||
| Dyson Daniels | D. Daniels | 0 | -3 | -2.7 | +2.1 | ||||||||
| Larry Nance Jr. | L. Nance Jr. | 4 | -2 | -0.6 | +1.6 | ||||||||
| Jaxson Hayes | J. Hayes | 3 | -3 | -2.7 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Kira Lewis Jr. | K. Lewis Jr. | 0 | -2 | -0.5 | -1.0 | ||||||||
| Willy Hernangomez | W. Hernangomez | 2 | -2 | -0.9 | +0.4 | ||||||||
| Garrett Temple | G. Temple | 0 | SAME | -2.1 | -0.1 | ||||||||
| E.J. Liddell | E. Liddell | 0 | SAME | -1.5 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Dereon Seabron | D. Seabron | 0 | SAME | -1.6 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +3.2 | 0.0 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.1 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.1 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 111-107 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 49 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1578 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1516). The weight given to Elo — 26% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1516). The weight given to Elo — 26% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1562 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1567 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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