2022-23 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The Detroit Pistons have a 0% chance of making the playoffs and a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Cade Cunningham | C. Cunningham | 0 | -34 | -0.4 | -0.5 | ||||||||
| Isaiah Stewart | I. Stewart | 22 | -6 | -2.6 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Bojan Bogdanovic | B. Bogdanovic | 24 | -7 | +0.8 | -2.9 | ||||||||
| Jaden Ivey | J. Ivey | 25 | -5 | -1.5 | -2.7 | ||||||||
| Marvin Bagley III | M. Bagley III | 22 | SAME | -1.4 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Killian Hayes | K. Hayes | 24 | +4 | -2.6 | +0.5 | ||||||||
| Rodney McGruder | R. McGruder | 19 | +4 | -0.4 | -0.8 | ||||||||
| Isaiah Livers | I. Livers | 19 | +1 | -1.8 | -0.1 | ||||||||
| Eugene Omoruyi | E. Omoruyi | 15 | +8 | -2.1 | +0.6 | ||||||||
| Jalen Duren | J. Duren | 12 | +5 | -2.2 | -0.1 | ||||||||
| Cory Joseph | C. Joseph | 16 | +10 | -0.7 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Alec Burks | A. Burks | 12 | +4 | +1.6 | +0.5 | ||||||||
| Hamidou Diallo | H. Diallo | 2 | -5 | -1.2 | +2.0 | ||||||||
| James Wiseman | J. Wiseman | 13 | +6 | -3.3 | -2.0 | ||||||||
| Buddy Boeheim | B. Boeheim | 3 | +3 | -1.4 | -1.4 | ||||||||
| Jared Rhoden | J. Rhoden | 4 | +4 | -1.8 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| R.J. Hampton | R. Hampton | 8 | +8 | -2.2 | -1.5 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -5.6 | -2.8 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.9 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.9 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 105-113 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 20 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1285 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1281). The weight given to Elo — 36% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1281). The weight given to Elo — 36% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1284 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Exp. min. per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||
| Cade Cunningham | C. Cunningham | 34 | -0.4 | -0.5 | |||||
| Isaiah Stewart | I. Stewart | 28 | -2.6 | +0.3 | |||||
| Bojan Bogdanovic | B. Bogdanovic | 31 | +0.8 | -2.9 | |||||
| Jaden Ivey | J. Ivey | 30 | -1.5 | -2.7 | |||||
| Marvin Bagley III | M. Bagley III | 22 | -1.4 | 0.0 | |||||
| Killian Hayes | K. Hayes | 20 | -2.6 | +0.5 | |||||
| Rodney McGruder | R. McGruder | 15 | -0.4 | -0.8 | |||||
| Isaiah Livers | I. Livers | 18 | -1.8 | -0.1 | |||||
| Eugene Omoruyi | E. Omoruyi | 7 | -2.1 | +0.6 | |||||
| Jalen Duren | J. Duren | 7 | -2.2 | -0.1 | |||||
| Cory Joseph | C. Joseph | 6 | -0.7 | -0.6 | |||||
| Alec Burks | A. Burks | 8 | +1.6 | +0.5 | |||||
| Hamidou Diallo | H. Diallo | 7 | -1.2 | +2.0 | |||||
| James Wiseman | J. Wiseman | 7 | -3.3 | -2.0 | |||||
| Buddy Boeheim | B. Boeheim | 0 | -1.4 | -1.4 | |||||
| Jared Rhoden | J. Rhoden | 0 | -1.8 | -0.3 | |||||
| R.J. Hampton | R. Hampton | 0 | -2.2 | -1.5 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -4.7 | -3.0 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.7 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.7 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 107-114 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 22 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1306 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1281). The weight given to Elo — 12% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1281). The weight given to Elo — 12% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1303 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Cade Cunningham | C. Cunningham | 37 | +3 | -0.5 | -0.5 | ||||||||
| Isaiah Stewart | I. Stewart | 27 | -1 | -2.5 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Bojan Bogdanovic | B. Bogdanovic | 28 | -3 | +0.9 | -2.9 | ||||||||
| Jaden Ivey | J. Ivey | 30 | SAME | -1.5 | -2.7 | ||||||||
| Marvin Bagley III | M. Bagley III | 23 | +1 | -1.4 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Killian Hayes | K. Hayes | 23 | +3 | -2.5 | +0.5 | ||||||||
| Rodney McGruder | R. McGruder | 11 | -4 | -0.3 | -0.8 | ||||||||
| Isaiah Livers | I. Livers | 19 | +1 | -1.8 | -0.1 | ||||||||
| Eugene Omoruyi | E. Omoruyi | 8 | +1 | -2.1 | +0.6 | ||||||||
| Jalen Duren | J. Duren | 9 | +2 | -2.1 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Cory Joseph | C. Joseph | 1 | -5 | -0.7 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Alec Burks | A. Burks | 8 | SAME | +1.7 | +0.5 | ||||||||
| Hamidou Diallo | H. Diallo | 8 | +1 | -1.2 | +2.0 | ||||||||
| James Wiseman | J. Wiseman | 8 | +1 | -3.3 | -2.0 | ||||||||
| Buddy Boeheim | B. Boeheim | 0 | SAME | -1.2 | -1.4 | ||||||||
| Jared Rhoden | J. Rhoden | 0 | SAME | -1.7 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| R.J. Hampton | R. Hampton | 0 | SAME | -2.1 | -1.5 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -5.5 | -3.1 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.2 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.2 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 102-111 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 21 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1300 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1281). The weight given to Elo — 11% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1281). The weight given to Elo — 11% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1298 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1299 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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