2022-23 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The Houston Rockets have a 0% chance of making the playoffs and a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Jalen Green | J. Green | 31 | -3 | +0.8 | -2.7 | ||||||||
| Kevin Porter Jr. | K. Porter Jr. | 31 | -2 | +1.4 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Jabari Smith Jr. | J. Smith Jr. | 29 | -1 | -3.1 | -1.2 | ||||||||
| Alperen Sengun | A. Sengun | 27 | -1 | 0.0 | +0.4 | ||||||||
| Josh Christopher | J. Christopher | 12 | -2 | -2.1 | -2.6 | ||||||||
| Jae'Sean Tate | J. Tate | 21 | -2 | -1.3 | +0.7 | ||||||||
| Kenyon Martin Jr. | K. Martin Jr. | 28 | +1 | -0.9 | -3.2 | ||||||||
| Daishen Nix | D. Nix | 11 | +3 | -3.4 | -2.3 | ||||||||
| TyTy Washington Jr. | T. Washington Jr. | 7 | -1 | -2.2 | -2.3 | ||||||||
| Tari Eason | T. Eason | 22 | +2 | -0.6 | +1.1 | ||||||||
| Usman Garuba | U. Garuba | 14 | SAME | -2.3 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Frank Kaminsky | F. Kaminsky | 2 | +1 | -2.1 | +1.1 | ||||||||
| D.J. Augustin | D. Augustin | 0 | SAME | -0.9 | -4.0 | ||||||||
| Trevor Hudgins | T. Hudgins | 0 | SAME | -1.8 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Darius Days | D. Days | 0 | SAME | -1.2 | -0.1 | ||||||||
| Boban Marjanovic | B. Marjanovic | 5 | +5 | -3.2 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -3.6 | -4.2 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.6 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.6 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 108-116 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 22 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1303 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1278). The weight given to Elo — 46% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1278). The weight given to Elo — 46% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1292 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Exp. min. per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||
| Jalen Green | J. Green | 34 | +0.8 | -2.7 | |||||
| Kevin Porter Jr. | K. Porter Jr. | 33 | +1.4 | -0.9 | |||||
| Jabari Smith Jr. | J. Smith Jr. | 30 | -3.1 | -1.2 | |||||
| Alperen Sengun | A. Sengun | 28 | 0.0 | +0.4 | |||||
| Josh Christopher | J. Christopher | 14 | -2.1 | -2.6 | |||||
| Jae'Sean Tate | J. Tate | 23 | -1.3 | +0.7 | |||||
| Kenyon Martin Jr. | K. Martin Jr. | 27 | -0.9 | -3.2 | |||||
| Daishen Nix | D. Nix | 8 | -3.4 | -2.3 | |||||
| TyTy Washington Jr. | T. Washington Jr. | 8 | -2.2 | -2.3 | |||||
| Tari Eason | T. Eason | 20 | -0.6 | +1.1 | |||||
| Usman Garuba | U. Garuba | 14 | -2.3 | +0.3 | |||||
| Frank Kaminsky | F. Kaminsky | 1 | -2.1 | +1.1 | |||||
| D.J. Augustin | D. Augustin | 0 | -0.9 | -4.0 | |||||
| Trevor Hudgins | T. Hudgins | 0 | -1.8 | -0.3 | |||||
| Darius Days | D. Days | 0 | -1.2 | -0.1 | |||||
| Boban Marjanovic | B. Marjanovic | 0 | -3.2 | +0.1 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -3.2 | -4.4 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.5 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.5 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 108-116 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 22 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1309 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1278). The weight given to Elo — 43% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1278). The weight given to Elo — 43% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1296 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Jalen Green | J. Green | 35 | +1 | +0.8 | -2.7 | ||||||||
| Kevin Porter Jr. | K. Porter Jr. | 34 | +1 | +1.4 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Jabari Smith Jr. | J. Smith Jr. | 34 | +4 | -3.1 | -1.2 | ||||||||
| Alperen Sengun | A. Sengun | 29 | +1 | 0.0 | +0.4 | ||||||||
| Josh Christopher | J. Christopher | 13 | -1 | -2.0 | -2.6 | ||||||||
| Jae'Sean Tate | J. Tate | 24 | +1 | -1.3 | +0.7 | ||||||||
| Kenyon Martin Jr. | K. Martin Jr. | 25 | -2 | -0.9 | -3.2 | ||||||||
| Daishen Nix | D. Nix | 8 | SAME | -3.3 | -2.3 | ||||||||
| TyTy Washington Jr. | T. Washington Jr. | 8 | SAME | -2.1 | -2.3 | ||||||||
| Tari Eason | T. Eason | 20 | SAME | -0.7 | +1.1 | ||||||||
| Usman Garuba | U. Garuba | 10 | -4 | -2.3 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Frank Kaminsky | F. Kaminsky | 0 | -1 | -2.1 | +1.1 | ||||||||
| D.J. Augustin | D. Augustin | 0 | SAME | -0.8 | -4.1 | ||||||||
| Trevor Hudgins | T. Hudgins | 0 | SAME | -1.6 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Darius Days | D. Days | 0 | SAME | -1.2 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Boban Marjanovic | B. Marjanovic | 0 | SAME | -3.2 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -3.6 | -4.9 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 104-112 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 22 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1304 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1278). The weight given to Elo — 39% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1278). The weight given to Elo — 39% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1294 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1294 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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