2022-23 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The Phoenix Suns have a >99% chance of making the playoffs and a 3% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Kevin Durant | K. Durant | 4 | -31 | +4.3 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Devin Booker | D. Booker | 32 | -2 | +4.7 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Chris Paul | C. Paul | 28 | -3 | +2.5 | -0.1 | ||||||||
| Deandre Ayton | D. Ayton | 28 | -3 | -1.4 | +0.4 | ||||||||
| Josh Okogie | J. Okogie | 19 | +1 | -0.8 | +3.2 | ||||||||
| Torrey Craig | T. Craig | 21 | +1 | -1.9 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Damion Lee | D. Lee | 9 | -5 | -1.0 | +0.6 | ||||||||
| Cameron Payne | C. Payne | 16 | +1 | +0.9 | -0.5 | ||||||||
| Terrence Ross | T. Ross | 16 | +2 | -0.9 | -2.1 | ||||||||
| Landry Shamet | L. Shamet | 12 | +7 | -0.3 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| T.J. Warren | T. Warren | 16 | +7 | -1.4 | -0.8 | ||||||||
| Ish Wainright | I. Wainright | 12 | +6 | -0.7 | +0.5 | ||||||||
| Jock Landale | J. Landale | 15 | +7 | -1.1 | +1.0 | ||||||||
| Bismack Biyombo | B. Biyombo | 11 | +11 | -3.5 | +0.5 | ||||||||
| Saben Lee | S. Lee | 0 | SAME | -1.2 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Darius Bazley | D. Bazley | 1 | +1 | -3.5 | +1.4 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +0.7 | +0.2 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 111-110 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 44 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1529 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1573). The weight given to Elo — 46% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1573). The weight given to Elo — 46% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1549 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Exp. min. per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||
| Kevin Durant | K. Durant | 35 | +4.3 | +0.3 | |||||
| Devin Booker | D. Booker | 34 | +4.7 | -0.9 | |||||
| Chris Paul | C. Paul | 31 | +2.5 | -0.1 | |||||
| Deandre Ayton | D. Ayton | 31 | -1.4 | +0.4 | |||||
| Josh Okogie | J. Okogie | 18 | -0.8 | +3.2 | |||||
| Torrey Craig | T. Craig | 20 | -1.9 | -0.4 | |||||
| Damion Lee | D. Lee | 14 | -1.0 | +0.6 | |||||
| Cameron Payne | C. Payne | 15 | +0.9 | -0.5 | |||||
| Terrence Ross | T. Ross | 14 | -0.9 | -2.1 | |||||
| Landry Shamet | L. Shamet | 5 | -0.3 | 0.0 | |||||
| T.J. Warren | T. Warren | 9 | -1.4 | -0.8 | |||||
| Ish Wainright | I. Wainright | 6 | -0.7 | +0.5 | |||||
| Jock Landale | J. Landale | 8 | -1.1 | +1.0 | |||||
| Bismack Biyombo | B. Biyombo | 0 | -3.5 | +0.5 | |||||
| Saben Lee | S. Lee | 0 | -1.2 | +0.3 | |||||
| Darius Bazley | D. Bazley | 0 | -3.5 | +1.4 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +4.2 | +0.3 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.6 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.6 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 116-111 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 53 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1618 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1573). The weight given to Elo — 30% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1573). The weight given to Elo — 30% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1605 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Kevin Durant | K. Durant | 37 | +2 | +4.0 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Devin Booker | D. Booker | 33 | -1 | +4.7 | -0.8 | ||||||||
| Chris Paul | C. Paul | 33 | +2 | +2.5 | -0.1 | ||||||||
| Deandre Ayton | D. Ayton | 31 | SAME | -1.2 | +0.5 | ||||||||
| Josh Okogie | J. Okogie | 16 | -2 | -0.8 | +3.2 | ||||||||
| Torrey Craig | T. Craig | 20 | SAME | -1.9 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Damion Lee | D. Lee | 14 | SAME | -1.0 | +0.7 | ||||||||
| Cameron Payne | C. Payne | 15 | SAME | +0.7 | -0.5 | ||||||||
| Terrence Ross | T. Ross | 14 | SAME | -0.8 | -2.0 | ||||||||
| Landry Shamet | L. Shamet | 4 | -1 | -0.5 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| T.J. Warren | T. Warren | 9 | SAME | -1.5 | -0.8 | ||||||||
| Ish Wainright | I. Wainright | 6 | SAME | -0.6 | +0.5 | ||||||||
| Jock Landale | J. Landale | 8 | SAME | -1.0 | +1.1 | ||||||||
| Bismack Biyombo | B. Biyombo | 0 | SAME | -3.4 | +0.6 | ||||||||
| Saben Lee | S. Lee | 0 | SAME | -1.1 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Darius Bazley | D. Bazley | 0 | SAME | -3.4 | +1.5 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +4.8 | +0.4 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 112-107 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 53 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1626 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1573). The weight given to Elo — 28% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1573). The weight given to Elo — 28% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1611 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1629 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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