2022-23 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The Portland Trail Blazers have a <0.1% chance of making the playoffs and a <0.1% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Damian Lillard | D. Lillard | 26 | -10 | +7.6 | -2.0 | ||||||||
| Jerami Grant | J. Grant | 25 | -9 | 0.0 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Shaedon Sharpe | S. Sharpe | 22 | SAME | -2.3 | -2.2 | ||||||||
| Matisse Thybulle | M. Thybulle | 16 | -2 | -1.7 | +3.1 | ||||||||
| Anfernee Simons | A. Simons | 25 | -9 | +2.0 | -1.4 | ||||||||
| Cam Reddish | C. Reddish | 17 | -6 | -2.2 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Jusuf Nurkic | J. Nurkic | 20 | -3 | -0.7 | +2.3 | ||||||||
| Justise Winslow | J. Winslow | 13 | -5 | -1.9 | +0.8 | ||||||||
| Trendon Watford | T. Watford | 16 | -2 | -2.3 | -1.1 | ||||||||
| Drew Eubanks | D. Eubanks | 10 | +3 | -2.2 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Nassir Little | N. Little | 12 | +5 | -0.9 | -1.6 | ||||||||
| Keon Johnson | K. Johnson | 9 | +9 | -3.0 | -2.4 | ||||||||
| Kevin Knox II | K. Knox II | 9 | +9 | -1.9 | -2.2 | ||||||||
| Ryan Arcidiacono | R. Arcidiacono | 7 | +7 | -1.4 | +1.0 | ||||||||
| Jabari Walker | J. Walker | 8 | +8 | -3.0 | -1.2 | ||||||||
| John Butler Jr. | J. Butler Jr. | 5 | +5 | -3.5 | -1.1 | ||||||||
| Ibou Badji | I. Badji | 0 | SAME | -1.5 | -1.3 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -1.2 | -2.5 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 110-114 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 31 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1410 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1336). The weight given to Elo — 30% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1336). The weight given to Elo — 30% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1387 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Exp. min. per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||
| Damian Lillard | D. Lillard | 36 | +7.6 | -2.0 | |||||
| Jerami Grant | J. Grant | 34 | 0.0 | -0.9 | |||||
| Shaedon Sharpe | S. Sharpe | 22 | -2.3 | -2.2 | |||||
| Matisse Thybulle | M. Thybulle | 18 | -1.7 | +3.1 | |||||
| Anfernee Simons | A. Simons | 34 | +2.0 | -1.4 | |||||
| Cam Reddish | C. Reddish | 23 | -2.2 | -0.6 | |||||
| Jusuf Nurkic | J. Nurkic | 23 | -0.7 | +2.3 | |||||
| Justise Winslow | J. Winslow | 18 | -1.9 | +0.8 | |||||
| Trendon Watford | T. Watford | 18 | -2.3 | -1.1 | |||||
| Drew Eubanks | D. Eubanks | 7 | -2.2 | -0.3 | |||||
| Nassir Little | N. Little | 7 | -0.9 | -1.6 | |||||
| Keon Johnson | K. Johnson | 0 | -3.0 | -2.4 | |||||
| Kevin Knox II | K. Knox II | 0 | -1.9 | -2.2 | |||||
| Ryan Arcidiacono | R. Arcidiacono | 0 | -1.4 | +1.0 | |||||
| Jabari Walker | J. Walker | 0 | -3.0 | -1.2 | |||||
| John Butler Jr. | J. Butler Jr. | 0 | -3.5 | -1.1 | |||||
| Ibou Badji | I. Badji | 0 | -1.5 | -1.3 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +1.6 | -2.0 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.4 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.4 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 113-113 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 40 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1494 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1336). The weight given to Elo — 9% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1336). The weight given to Elo — 9% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1479 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Damian Lillard | D. Lillard | 37 | +1 | +7.5 | -2.0 | ||||||||
| Jerami Grant | J. Grant | 33 | -1 | 0.0 | -0.8 | ||||||||
| Shaedon Sharpe | S. Sharpe | 20 | -2 | -2.3 | -2.2 | ||||||||
| Matisse Thybulle | M. Thybulle | 19 | +1 | -1.8 | +3.1 | ||||||||
| Anfernee Simons | A. Simons | 33 | -1 | +2.1 | -1.4 | ||||||||
| Cam Reddish | C. Reddish | 24 | +1 | -2.1 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Jusuf Nurkic | J. Nurkic | 27 | +4 | -0.9 | +2.1 | ||||||||
| Justise Winslow | J. Winslow | 22 | +4 | -1.8 | +0.8 | ||||||||
| Trendon Watford | T. Watford | 14 | -4 | -2.2 | -1.1 | ||||||||
| Drew Eubanks | D. Eubanks | 7 | SAME | -2.1 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Nassir Little | N. Little | 4 | -3 | -0.9 | -1.6 | ||||||||
| Keon Johnson | K. Johnson | 0 | SAME | -2.9 | -2.4 | ||||||||
| Kevin Knox II | K. Knox II | 0 | SAME | -1.7 | -2.1 | ||||||||
| Ryan Arcidiacono | R. Arcidiacono | 0 | SAME | -1.3 | +1.0 | ||||||||
| Jabari Walker | J. Walker | 0 | SAME | -2.9 | -1.1 | ||||||||
| John Butler Jr. | J. Butler Jr. | 0 | SAME | -3.4 | -1.0 | ||||||||
| Ibou Badji | I. Badji | 0 | SAME | -1.5 | -1.3 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +1.9 | -1.8 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 109-109 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 41 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1508 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1336). The weight given to Elo — 4% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1336). The weight given to Elo — 4% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1501 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1506 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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