2022-23 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The Golden State Warriors have a 90% chance of making the playoffs and a 4% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Stephen Curry | S. Curry | 31 | -3 | +6.7 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| Andrew Wiggins | A. Wiggins | 28 | -4 | -0.2 | +1.3 | ||||||||
| Draymond Green | D. Green | 28 | -3 | -1.0 | +3.2 | ||||||||
| Klay Thompson | K. Thompson | 29 | -3 | +1.1 | -1.3 | ||||||||
| Kevon Looney | K. Looney | 22 | -2 | +0.1 | +1.9 | ||||||||
| Jordan Poole | J. Poole | 21 | +2 | +0.1 | -1.5 | ||||||||
| Donte DiVincenzo | D. DiVincenzo | 16 | +1 | -0.1 | +1.4 | ||||||||
| Jonathan Kuminga | J. Kuminga | 19 | -2 | -2.2 | -0.2 | ||||||||
| Ty Jerome | T. Jerome | 13 | -2 | -0.2 | -1.7 | ||||||||
| Gary Payton II | G. Payton II | 8 | +3 | +0.7 | +2.2 | ||||||||
| Andre Iguodala | A. Iguodala | 7 | -1 | -0.9 | +1.9 | ||||||||
| Moses Moody | M. Moody | 5 | +1 | -2.0 | -1.4 | ||||||||
| JaMychal Green | J. Green | 5 | +5 | -1.4 | -1.3 | ||||||||
| Anthony Lamb | A. Lamb | 8 | +8 | -1.1 | +0.8 | ||||||||
| Ryan Rollins | R. Rollins | 0 | SAME | -2.1 | -1.0 | ||||||||
| Patrick Baldwin Jr. | P. Baldwin Jr. | 0 | SAME | -3.5 | -2.0 | ||||||||
| Lester Quinones | L. Quinones | 0 | SAME | -1.8 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +2.3 | +1.6 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 104.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 104.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 115-111 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 51 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1605 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1556). The weight given to Elo — 31% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1556). The weight given to Elo — 31% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1590 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Exp. min. per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||
| Stephen Curry | S. Curry | 34 | +6.7 | -0.7 | |||||
| Andrew Wiggins | A. Wiggins | 32 | -0.2 | +1.3 | |||||
| Draymond Green | D. Green | 31 | -1.0 | +3.2 | |||||
| Klay Thompson | K. Thompson | 32 | +1.1 | -1.3 | |||||
| Kevon Looney | K. Looney | 24 | +0.1 | +1.9 | |||||
| Jordan Poole | J. Poole | 19 | +0.1 | -1.5 | |||||
| Donte DiVincenzo | D. DiVincenzo | 15 | -0.1 | +1.4 | |||||
| Jonathan Kuminga | J. Kuminga | 21 | -2.2 | -0.2 | |||||
| Ty Jerome | T. Jerome | 15 | -0.2 | -1.7 | |||||
| Gary Payton II | G. Payton II | 5 | +0.7 | +2.2 | |||||
| Andre Iguodala | A. Iguodala | 8 | -0.9 | +1.9 | |||||
| Moses Moody | M. Moody | 4 | -2.0 | -1.4 | |||||
| JaMychal Green | J. Green | 0 | -1.4 | -1.3 | |||||
| Anthony Lamb | A. Lamb | 0 | -1.1 | +0.8 | |||||
| Ryan Rollins | R. Rollins | 0 | -2.1 | -1.0 | |||||
| Patrick Baldwin Jr. | P. Baldwin Jr. | 0 | -3.5 | -2.0 | |||||
| Lester Quinones | L. Quinones | 0 | -1.8 | -0.7 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +2.8 | +1.7 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 104.4 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 104.4 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 116-111 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 53 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1621 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1556). The weight given to Elo — 25% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1556). The weight given to Elo — 25% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1605 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Stephen Curry | S. Curry | 36 | +2 | +6.8 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| Andrew Wiggins | A. Wiggins | 35 | +3 | +0.2 | +1.3 | ||||||||
| Draymond Green | D. Green | 33 | +2 | -0.4 | +3.3 | ||||||||
| Klay Thompson | K. Thompson | 30 | -2 | +0.7 | -1.3 | ||||||||
| Kevon Looney | K. Looney | 25 | +1 | +0.3 | +2.0 | ||||||||
| Jordan Poole | J. Poole | 23 | +4 | +0.1 | -1.6 | ||||||||
| Donte DiVincenzo | D. DiVincenzo | 17 | +2 | -0.2 | +1.5 | ||||||||
| Jonathan Kuminga | J. Kuminga | 19 | -2 | -2.3 | -0.2 | ||||||||
| Ty Jerome | T. Jerome | 16 | +1 | -0.2 | -1.7 | ||||||||
| Gary Payton II | G. Payton II | 1 | -4 | +0.8 | +2.2 | ||||||||
| Andre Iguodala | A. Iguodala | 5 | -3 | -0.7 | +1.8 | ||||||||
| Moses Moody | M. Moody | 0 | -4 | -2.0 | -1.4 | ||||||||
| JaMychal Green | J. Green | 0 | SAME | -1.3 | -1.3 | ||||||||
| Anthony Lamb | A. Lamb | 0 | SAME | -1.0 | +0.8 | ||||||||
| Ryan Rollins | R. Rollins | 0 | SAME | -2.0 | -1.0 | ||||||||
| Patrick Baldwin Jr. | P. Baldwin Jr. | 0 | SAME | -3.4 | -2.0 | ||||||||
| Lester Quinones | L. Quinones | 0 | SAME | -1.6 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +4.1 | +2.0 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 114-107 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 55 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1648 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1556). The weight given to Elo — 24% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1556). The weight given to Elo — 24% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1626 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1647 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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