4 reasons to beware of post-debate polling takes

Biden's lost some ground, but it's hard to say much more.

July 11, 2024

What the Democrats doubting Biden have in common

They're more moderate, while his backers are progressive and racially diverse.

July 10, 2024

Why 538's forecast hasn't moved much post-debate

Polls move a lot in the fall, and the fundamentals are still good for Biden.

July 9, 2024

Can Biden recover from the debate?

Avoiding public appearances and minimizing camera time isn’t a scandal, but it doesn’t bode well.

July 9, 2024

What do Democrats really think about Biden continuing to run?

Voters are more concerned about his age than a few years ago, polls show.

July 9, 2024

Why Biden will probably stay in the race despite Democratic dissent

538’s Nathaniel Rakich joins the podcast to shed light on similarities between Biden today and Trump in 2016.

July 9, 2024

Why the Supreme Court tends to release unpopular decisions late in its term

The court may be trying to minimize public backlash over controversial opinions.

July 8, 2024

Would Kamala Harris be a stronger candidate than Biden?

What the 538 forecast would say if the 2024 election were Harris versus Trump.

July 4, 2024

Will President Biden stay in the race?

After fallout from his debate performance, the president's future in the White House has been questioned.

July 4, 2024

Democrats express concern over Biden’s future

With the election months away, 538 breaks down the possibilities and future of President Biden in the White House.

July 4, 2024

Has the United Kingdom established a political identity?

Helen Thompson and David Runciman join 538 to discuss the country's political identity and what to expect in the UK election.

July 4, 2024

The Brexit movement's impact on the present day

Political and economic experts discuss a post-Brexit economy ahead of election day.

July 4, 2024

Making sense of a historic British election

The UK could be on the verge of electing a center-left government, a groundbreaking decision given the country's conservative history in politics.

July 4, 2024

Voters are mad as hell in the UK and France

It's one of many similarities with the U.S. election.

July 3, 2024

Will SCOTUS' blockbuster rulings push Biden criticism out of the headlines?

Since SCOTUS handed down its decisions, the focus appears to have shifted. 538 discusses.

July 2, 2024

538 discusses Justice Amy Coney Barrett's disagreement regarding evidence

Despite Justice Barrett siding with the majority on the presidential immunity case, she dissented on a section of the ruling. 538 has more.

July 2, 2024

SCOTUS ruled on presidential immunity. What does that mean for Trump?

It's very unlikely Trump will stand trial before the 2024 presidential election: 538

July 2, 2024

What the polls say after the first presidential debate

Trump looks to be gaining, but by how much remains to be seen.

July 2, 2024

What Trump's VP pick could mean for 2028

Less than the current front-runners might hope.

July 1, 2024

Who won the first Biden-Trump presidential debate?

We partnered with Ipsos to poll voters before and after the debate.

June 28, 2024

Trump and Biden talk taxes at 1st debate

New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik and senior election analyst Nathaniel Rakich join the 538 Politics podcast to discuss the first presidential debate.

June 28, 2024

Would Biden step aside in 2024 election?

Senior election analyst Nathaniel Rakich reacts to President Joe Biden’s performance at the first debate.

June 28, 2024

Who won the 1st presidential debate?

538's Galen Druke is joined by senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik to talk about the first 2024 presidential debate.

June 28, 2024

Biden's biggest weakness -- his age -- on full display at debate: ANALYSIS

The president's age and perceived frailty became a clear liability on stage.

June 28, 2024

Who will win the first Biden-Trump presidential debate?

We’re partnering with Ipsos to poll voters before and after the debate.

June 27, 2024

Biden and Trump are in a toss-up race for president

Ahead of the first presidential debate on Thursday, 538 looks at the chances of each candidate winning the election this fall.

June 26, 2024

Why the Biden-Trump debate matters more than you think

Debates usually move the polls — and a tied race could shift either way.

June 26, 2024

What to expect from the 1st 2024 presidential debate

President Biden and former President Donald Trump will go head-to-head on Thursday.

June 25, 2024

All eyes on 3 high-profile primaries Tuesday

Polls are open in Colorado, New York, and Utah on Tuesday.

June 25, 2024

Upcoming debate is different than other debates

The debate Thursday between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is the first not run by the Commission on Presidential Debates since 1988.

June 25, 2024

How will polls change after the 1st presidential debate?

The 538 Politics podcast discusses whether President Joe Biden can increase his support until election night.

June 25, 2024

15 elections to watch in New York, Colorado, Utah and South Carolina

Jamaal Bowman and Lauren Boebert could both lose their primaries.

June 24, 2024

Trump's trial showed the legal system works, but his rhetoric has left scars

Legal experts are worried about Trump's ongoing attacks on the courts.

June 24, 2024

Do global election trends provide insight into the US election? 

Experts explain how trends of discontent around the world could help explain the outcome for the 2024 U.S. presidential election. 

June 20, 2024

Why are voters so dissatisfied around the world? 

Experts talk about dissatisfaction among voters around the world.

June 20, 2024

Is discontent a trend for elections around the world?

Discontent among voters has been documented in Europe and the United States. Does this trend also exist in countries with upcoming elections?

June 20, 2024

Beyond the election, how might AI be regulated? | 538 Politics Podcast

Last month, a bipartisan group of senators unveiled a roadmap for artificial intelligence policy, proposing $32 billion in funding to support AI research.

June 13, 2024

Lawmakers feel public pressure to regulate AI | 538 Politics Podcast

Gregory Allen, director of the Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies, joins the 538 Politics podcast.

June 13, 2024

How concerned are Americans with AI? | 538 Politics Podcast

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with Gregory Allen, director of the Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies, about the politics of AI regulation.

June 13, 2024

How 2016 and 2020 polling errors are accounted for in the election forecast

In this episode of the 538 podcast, Elliott explains how the forecast model accounts for historical polling errors to minimize bias and accurately reflect a wide range of potential election outcomes.

June 11, 2024

Should voters look at election forecast as codification?

For us here at 538, forecasting is an exercise in quantifying the reliability of various indicators of public opinion.

June 11, 2024

Election forecast: History versus unknown unknowns?

On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Director of Data Analytics G. Elliott Morris joins Galen to discuss the forecast for the 2024 presidential election.

June 11, 2024

538’s new forecast says 2024 election a toss-up

In this 538 episode, 538's Galen Druke sits down with G. Elliott Morris, director of data analytics, to discuss the even odds between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.

June 11, 2024

UPDATED Jul. 12, 2024, at 2:10 PM

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.

Biden wins 50 times out of 100
in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
Trump wins 49 times out of 100.
Biden
 
 
Trump
 
 
No winner
+
 
 
 simulations
Biden wins
Trump wins
No winner
Electoral vote margin

What are the latest national polls influencing the forecast?

We adjust polls for house effects, mode, partisanship, voter likelihood and third parties and weight them based on their firm’s 538 pollster rating and how often it polls.

DatesPollster
Sponsor
538 Pollster RatingResultNet result
July 9-10
2.9
Biden
42%
43%
Trump
Trump +1
July 7-9
2.9
Biden
40%
43%
Trump
Trump +3
July 5-9
2.8
Biden
42%
43%
Trump
Trump +1
July 8
1.8
Biden
42%
43%
Trump
Trump +1
July 7-8
2.9
Biden
40%
44%
Trump
Trump +4
July 5-7
1.8
Biden
42%
44%
Trump
Trump +2
July 1-7
2.5
Biden
40%
44%
Trump
Trump +4
July 2-6
1.0
Biden
42%
43%
Trump
Trump +1
July 2-4
1.8
Biden
42%
44%
Trump
Trump +2
June 28-July 4
No rating
Biden
31%
34%
Trump
Trump +3
Dates
Pollster
Sponsor
538 Pollster Rating
Result
Net result
42%
43%
Trump +1
40%
43%
Trump +3
42%
43%
Trump +1
42%
43%
Trump +1
July 7-8
2.9
40%
44%
Trump +4
July 5-7
1.8
42%
44%
Trump +2
40%
44%
Trump +4
42%
43%
Trump +1
July 2-4
1.8
42%
44%
Trump +2
31%
34%
Trump +3

Latest updates

LAST UPDATED July 8

It’s 120 days until Election Day, and our model thinks the presidential election could go either way. Right now, President Joe Biden is favored to win in XXX out of 1,000 of our model’s simulations of how the election could go, while former President Donald Trump wins in XXX of our simulations. There is still a small chance of the pure chaos scenario: In XXX simulations, no candidate wins a majority of Electoral College votes, which would throw the election to the House of Representatives.

It might not seem like it based on the panicked reaction to Biden’s poor debate performance nearly two weeks ago, but the election is still a considerable ways away. This means there is a lot of uncertainty about where the polls will end up on Nov. 5. In turn, the 538 election model puts a healthy amount of weight on non-polling factors such as economic growth and political indicators. Today these indicators suggest an outcome closer to a 3-point Biden win — clear in the opposite direction of national polls.

538’s focus on uncertainty partially explains why our election forecast has not moved much in reaction to new national polls showing Trump gaining on Biden. In effect, we are hedging our bets, putting more weight on the so-called “fundamentals” because we believe the campaign could be volatile or polls could be biased. The other big factor explaining our model’s relative stability is the flurry of swing-state polls that were published over the weekend, most good for Biden. The average swing-state poll published since July 6 has Trump leading Biden by 1 point, compared to his 2.2-point lead in national polls today.

538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to “call” a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win. Check out our methodology to learn exactly how we calculate these probabilities.

—G. Elliott Morris

How has the forecast changed over time?

The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get new data. Uncertainty will decrease as we get closer to Election Day.

Who’s favored to win each state?

Number of electoral votes and the probability of a Democratic or Republican win in each state. Outlined states are most likely to give the winner their 270th Electoral College vote.

Hover over a state to see its forecast
State Name
XX EVs
Chance of a win
XX out of 100 Biden win
XX out of 100 Trump win
Solid D
≥98 in 100%
Likely D
≥75 in 100%
Lean D
≥60 in 100%
Toss-up
Both <60 in 100%
Lean R
≥60 in 100%
Likely R
≥75 in 100%
Solid R
≥98 in 100%
Chance of a win based on 538’s forecast
Likeliest tipping-point states
Maine and Nebraska’s congressional districts are shown separately because those states split their Electoral College votes, allotting two to the statewide winner and one to the winner of each district.

What are the closest races?

Use the table below to sort states by name, forecasted margin of victory or two different metrics of how much influence they have over the outcome.

A state’s tipping-point chance is the probability it will give the Electoral College winner their 270th electoral vote. The Voter Power Index (VPI) is a relative measure of how likely an individual voter in that state is to determine the outcome of the election.

Median
95% of outcomes fall in this range
State
Forecasted margin of victory
Vote share
VPI
Tipping point
State
Forecasted margin of victory

A state’s tipping-point chance is the probability it will give the Electoral College winner their 270th electoral vote. The Voter Power Index (VPI) is a relative measure of how likely an individual voter in that state is to determine the outcome of the election.

What does the path to 270 look like?

Our “snake” chart orders the states by forecasted margin of victory. Scroll to the left or right to see uncompetitive states; more contested states are in the middle. Bigger segments mean more Electoral College votes.

Zoom out

What do the polls and fundamentals alone say?

Our forecast is based on a combination of the polls and various economic and political variables we call the “fundamentals.” This chart shows the different components of the forecast and what they say.

Median
95% of outcomes fall in this range
Margin of victory

Polling average

The state of the polls today according to 538’s polling average only. This does not account for the chance that polls systematically underestimate one candidate.

Adjusted polling average

The polling average adjusted for movement in similar states and the effects of party conventions. This does not account for the chance that polls systematically underestimate one candidate.

Forecast of polling average on Election Day

An adjusted version of our polling average that accounts for potential movement in the race between now and Election Day. This does not account for the chance that the polls systematically underestimate one candidate.

Fundamentals-only forecast

What our fundamentals model alone would predict the popular vote margin to be.

Full forecast

Our final forecast of the popular vote, based on both polls and fundamentals and accounting for the chance that polls systematically underestimate one candidate.

Unusual and not-so-unusual scenarios

The probability of each outcome below, according to our simulations.

Biden wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes)22 out of 100
Trump wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes)12 out of 100
Biden wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes28 out of 100
Trump wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes36 out of 100
Biden wins the national popular vote62 out of 100
Trump wins the national popular vote38 out of 100
Biden wins a majority of the national popular vote25 out of 100
Trump wins a majority of the national popular vote11 out of 100
Biden wins the national popular vote by 10+ percentage points13 out of 100
Trump wins the national popular vote by 10+ percentage points5 out of 100
Biden wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College12 out of 100
Trump wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College1 out of 100
No candidate wins a majority of Electoral College votes<1 out of 100
Every state votes for the same candidate that it did in 2020<1 out of 100
Election is decided by a recount (winner's margin is <0.5% in a decisive state)6 out of 100
Election is decided by a smaller margin than the vote share for third-party candidates59 out of 100
Biden wins at least one state he didn't win in 202050 out of 100
Trump wins at least one state he didn't win in 202079 out of 100

Credits

How this works

Contact us

Download our data

Sources: American National Election Studies, The American Presidency Project at the University of California Santa Barbara, Ballotpedia, Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives, Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, Federal Election Commission, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Our Campaigns, polls, The Roper Center, state election websites, U.S. Census Bureau, University of Michigan Survey Research Center, VoteSmart