A Supreme Court abortion ruling that voters will be happy about

Plus, voters' shifting priorities, Pride month and a poll about polling.

June 14, 2024

Beyond the election, how might AI be regulated? | 538 Politics Podcast

Last month, a bipartisan group of senators unveiled a roadmap for artificial intelligence policy, proposing $32 billion in funding to support AI research.

June 13, 2024

Lawmakers feel public pressure to regulate AI | 538 Politics Podcast

Gregory Allen, director of the Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies, joins the 538 Politics podcast.

June 13, 2024

How concerned are Americans with AI? | 538 Politics Podcast

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with Gregory Allen, director of the Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies, about the politics of AI regulation.

June 13, 2024

Why Hunter Biden's guilty verdict probably won't affect the 2024 election

It's not clear that voters will fault the president for his son's wrongdoing.

June 12, 2024

How 2016 and 2020 polling errors are accounted for in the election forecast

In this episode of the 538 podcast, Elliott explains how the forecast model accounts for historical polling errors to minimize bias and accurately reflect a wide range of potential election outcomes.

June 11, 2024

Should voters look at election forecast as codification?

For us here at 538, forecasting is an exercise in quantifying the reliability of various indicators of public opinion.

June 11, 2024

Election forecast: History versus unknown unknowns?

On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Director of Data Analytics G. Elliott Morris joins Galen to discuss the forecast for the 2024 presidential election.

June 11, 2024

538’s new forecast says 2024 election a toss-up

In this 538 episode, 538's Galen Druke sits down with G. Elliott Morris, director of data analytics, to discuss the even odds between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.

June 11, 2024

Trump and Biden are tied in 538's new election forecast

Trump has a slight edge in the polls, but the fundamentals favor Biden.

June 11, 2024

How 538's 2024 presidential election forecast works

Here's everything that goes into this year's brand-new model.

June 11, 2024

10 primaries to watch in South Carolina, North Dakota, Maine and Nevada

All of Tuesday's notable races are Republican primary elections.

June 9, 2024

Abortion-rights ballot measures are leading in the polls

Two years after Dobbs, Americans still broadly support abortion access.

June 7, 2024

Democratic women are overperforming in 2024 primaries; Republicans lag behind

We're tracking how many women are running (and winning) in primaries this year.

June 6, 2024

Trump’s conviction may be hurting him — but it’s early

Post-verdict polling shows a slight shift toward Biden.

June 4, 2024

Will Supreme Court rule on presidential immunity before the election?

On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, senior Washington reporter, Devin Dwyer, and AP polling editor, Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux weigh in.

June 4, 2024

Half of Americans think Supreme Court is conservative

On this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, we play a game of “Guess What Americans Think: Supreme Court Edition.”

June 4, 2024

How Trump's conviction in hush money case affects public opinion

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen and Elliott talk about the latest polling data.

June 3, 2024

How Trump's polls are changing post-conviction

538’s Galen Druke breaks down recent polling for the 2024 presidential election following former President Donald Trump’s conviction.

June 3, 2024

How Trump’s guilty verdict will impact the 2024 presidential election

Trump may lose some support, but the drop could be temporary.

June 3, 2024

4 primaries to watch in New Jersey, Montana and Iowa

Bob Menendez's trial could cost his son reelection.

June 3, 2024

Poll numbers could shift in wake of Trump’s guilty verdict

538's Nathaniel Rakich joins the podcast to discuss the possible political implications of the guilty verdict.

May 31, 2024

Trump can’t appeal until after sentencing

In this 538 Politics reaction podcast, Galen speaks with former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth about the legal implications of the jury's finding.

May 31, 2024

How the jury got to the guilty verdict

In this 538 Politics reaction podcast, former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth discusses the jury’s verdict in Donald Trump’s criminal trial.

May 31, 2024

How Trump’s guilty verdict will impact the 2024 presidential election

Trump may lose some support, but the drop could be temporary.

May 30, 2024

Polling isn't broken, but pollsters still face Trump-era challenges

Pollsters are trying to reach more Republicans and gauge turnout in 2024.

May 30, 2024

Republicans are ramping up election fraud claims ahead of November

It could lay the groundwork for again contesting the presidential election.

May 29, 2024

Donald Trump’s next move if he’s found guilty

Law professor and former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth joins the 538 Politics podcast to discuss Trump’s options for appeal if he’s found guilty.

May 29, 2024

Does Trump’s trial hinge on Michael Cohen’s testimony?

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, law professor Jessica Roth joins Galen to discuss the possible outcomes in Donald Trump’s criminal trial.

May 29, 2024

Why Donald Trump didn’t take the stand

Jessica Roth, a law professor and former federal prosecutor, joins the 538 Politics podcast to discuss Trump’s criminal trial.

May 29, 2024

What to know about the UK’s July general election

With the announcement that the U.K. will hold general elections on July 4, the electoral picture for the Conservative Party is currently negative and they have six weeks to try to change it.

May 28, 2024

Will Nikki Haley supporters vote for Trump?

Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley said on Wednesday that she is going to vote for former President Donald Trump this fall, but what will her supporters do?

May 28, 2024

How will Trump's hush money trial impact the 2024 election?

Trump could get convicted, but it may not matter to voters.

May 28, 2024

Will there be record-breaking turnout for the 2024 election?

The team at 538 predicts how this year’s voter turnout will compare to the unusually high turnout during the 2018 and 2020 election cycles.

May 20, 2024

Will low voter enthusiasm affect election turnout?

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we examine the low voter enthusiasm for the presidential candidates. Are there other factors that could drive Americans to the polls?

May 20, 2024

Which candidate benefits more from early debates?

The 538 crew discusses the presidential debates and which candidate benefits more from their earlier-than-usual schedule.

May 20, 2024

What potential threats are experts and voters concerned about?

"Experts placed a really high probability on a number of very concerning norm breaking scenarios occurring," about a second Trump term, according to Gretchen Helmke.

May 16, 2024

Polls show some Americans are losing faith in our elections

Gretchen Helmke of Bright Line Watch discusses how Americans feel about our voting systems and American Democracy.

May 16, 2024

Why are voters worried about democracy?

In the latest polling from The New York Times/Siena College, 14% of voters said the economic and political system needs to be torn down entirely, while 55% said it needs major changes.

May 16, 2024

Maryland's contentious Senate race  

The 538 crew dive into Tuesday's Democratic primary election in Maryland.

May 14, 2024

Has inflation been Biden's biggest political problem?

Polling shows that President Joe Biden has a negligible lead over former President Donald Trump when it comes to job creation, infrastructure and the economy.

May 14, 2024

UPDATED Jun. 18, 2024, at 12:56 PM

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.

Trump wins 50 times out of 100
in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
Biden wins 49 times out of 100.
Trump
 
 
Biden
 
 
No winner
+
 
 
 simulations
Biden wins
Trump wins
No winner
Electoral vote margin

What are the latest national polls influencing the forecast?

We adjust polls for house effects, mode, partisanship, voter likelihood and third parties and weight them based on their firm’s 538 pollster rating and how often it polls.

DatesPollster
Sponsor
538 Pollster RatingResultNet result
June 14-16
1.8
Biden
44%
43%
Trump
Biden +1
June 11-13
1.8
Biden
44%
43%
Trump
Biden +1
June 12
2.8
Biden
37%
38%
Trump
Trump +1
June 10-12
2.9
Biden
41%
42%
Trump
Trump +1
June 11-12
1.8
Biden
41%
40%
Trump
Biden +1
June 10-12
2.7
Biden
42%
43%
Trump
Trump +1
June 9-11
2.9
Biden
40%
42%
Trump
Trump +2
June 8-11
Daily Kos
2.5
Biden
45%
45%
Trump
Even
June 8-10
1.8
Biden
43%
44%
Trump
Trump +1
June 7-9
1.6
Biden
43%
42%
Trump
Biden +1
Dates
Pollster
Sponsor
538 Pollster Rating
Result
Net result
June 14-16
1.8
44%
43%
Biden +1
June 11-13
1.8
44%
43%
Biden +1
June 12
2.8
37%
38%
Trump +1
41%
42%
Trump +1
41%
40%
Biden +1
June 10-12
2.7
42%
43%
Trump +1
June 9-11
2.9
40%
42%
Trump +2
June 8-11
Daily Kos
2.5
45%
45%
Even
June 8-10
1.8
43%
44%
Trump +1
June 7-9
1.6
43%
42%
Biden +1

Latest updates

LAST UPDATED June 17

With 141 days until Election Day, our forecast still sees the presidential race as a pure toss-up. Right now, President Joe Biden is favored to win in XXX out of 1,000 of our model’s simulations of how the election could go, while former President Donald Trump wins in XXX of our simulations. There is still a small chance of the pure chaos scenario: In XXX simulations, no candidate wins a majority of Electoral College votes, which would throw the election to the House of Representatives.

Compared to last week, the fundamentals have gotten slightly better for Biden — owing to positive releases of payroll, wage growth, inflation and stock market data. But a preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment for June also flashed red last week, so the good news for Biden may not last for long. And at 38 percent (brushing against the lowest mark of his presidency), the president’s approval rating is not doing him any favors. Currently, though, our median fundamentals-only forecast for the national popular vote is holding steady at roughly +3 for Biden.

Meanwhile, the polls continue to suggest a slight edge for Trump in both the popular vote and the Electoral College. As mentioned in our discussion of the model on the 538 Politics podcast last week, these polls will continue to receive more weight in our forecast as we approach November — and that will keep pulling Biden’s overall chances down unless his numbers improve. That’s not happening yet, though: Recent polls aren’t suggesting statewide momentum for either candidate relative to last week’s forecasts. And national polls indicate that the recent judicial news surrounding each candidate — the conviction of Trump on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records, and the conviction of Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, on charges relating to purchasing a gun while on drugs — has not yet meaningfully impacted vote intention.

What should you watch for this week? Besides the typical stream of polls, we’ll get new data on private residential housing construction and manufacturing sales, both of which feed into our model.

538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to “call” a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win. Check out our methodology to learn exactly how we calculate these probabilities.

—G. Elliott Morris

How has the forecast changed over time?

The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get new data. Uncertainty will decrease as we get closer to Election Day.

Who’s favored to win each state?

Number of electoral votes and the probability of a Democratic or Republican win in each state. Outlined states are most likely to give the winner their 270th Electoral College vote.

Hover over a state to see its forecast
State Name
XX EVs
Chance of a win
XX out of 100 Biden win
XX out of 100 Trump win
Solid D
≥98 in 100%
Likely D
≥75 in 100%
Lean D
≥60 in 100%
Toss-up
Both <60 in 100%
Lean R
≥60 in 100%
Likely R
≥75 in 100%
Solid R
≥98 in 100%
Chance of a win based on 538’s forecast
Likeliest tipping-point states
Maine and Nebraska’s congressional districts are shown separately because those states split their Electoral College votes, allotting two to the statewide winner and one to the winner of each district.

What are the closest races?

Use the table below to sort states by name, forecasted margin of victory or two different metrics of how much influence they have over the outcome.

A state’s tipping-point chance is the probability it will give the Electoral College winner their 270th electoral vote. The Voter Power Index (VPI) is a relative measure of how likely an individual voter in that state is to determine the outcome of the election.

Median
95% of outcomes fall in this range
State
Forecasted margin of victory
Vote share
VPI
Tipping point
State
Forecasted margin of victory

A state’s tipping-point chance is the probability it will give the Electoral College winner their 270th electoral vote. The Voter Power Index (VPI) is a relative measure of how likely an individual voter in that state is to determine the outcome of the election.

What does the path to 270 look like?

Our “snake” chart orders the states by forecasted margin of victory. Scroll to the left or right to see uncompetitive states; more contested states are in the middle. Bigger segments mean more Electoral College votes.

Zoom out

Unusual and not-so-unusual scenarios

The probability of each outcome below, according to our simulations.

Biden wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes)21 out of 100
Trump wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes)13 out of 100
Biden wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes27 out of 100
Trump wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes36 out of 100
Biden wins the national popular vote60 out of 100
Trump wins the national popular vote40 out of 100
Biden wins a majority of the national popular vote24 out of 100
Trump wins a majority of the national popular vote11 out of 100
Biden wins the national popular vote by 10+ percentage points13 out of 100
Trump wins the national popular vote by 10+ percentage points5 out of 100
Biden wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College11 out of 100
Trump wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College1 out of 100
No candidate wins a majority of Electoral College votes<1 out of 100
Every state votes for the same candidate that it did in 2020<1 out of 100
Election is decided by a recount (winner's margin is <0.5% in a decisive state)5 out of 100
Election is decided by a smaller margin than the vote share for third-party candidates59 out of 100
Biden wins at least one state he didn't win in 202048 out of 100
Trump wins at least one state he didn't win in 202080 out of 100

Credits

How this works

Contact us