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Why your vote matters in 2024
In the 2000 presidential race, the election came down to Florida, and the winner of the Sunshine State won by less than 0.1 percent of the vote.
The 2024 election could have a big impact on education policy
States are voting on school choice and more in 2024.
Why voting patterns may shift this election
538’s Galen Druke asks The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik if analysts should be skeptical of data that shows a shift in voting patterns.
Could recent hurricanes affect the presidential election?
The 538 team discusses how hurricane season and election season collide, prompting it to become a political talking point this election cycle.
What the polls say about the 2024 election
538’s Galen Druke and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss the latest polling data showing an extremely close presidential race.
How Hurricanes Helene and Milton could affect the 2024 election
Even if they don't change voters' minds, they could dampen turnout.
How Georgia could swing back to the GOP in 2024
Our fourth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.
3 states could vote to mandate paid sick days
Paid leave and minimum wage policies have passed by ballot initiative before.
Trump is holding more campaign events than Harris
But it probably doesn't matter.
How redistricting could play a key role in the fight to control the House in 2024
North Carolina, New York, Alabama, Georgia and Louisiana redrew their districts.
The 2024 race to control the House couldn't be tighter
Introducing 538's forecast for U.S. House races.
How 538's 2024 House election forecast works
Here's everything that goes into this year's model.
Are polls that use AI chatbots even polls? | 538 Politics podcast
The 538 team plays another round of "Good or Bad Use of Polling” to discuss how an experimental polling company, Aaru, uses AI chatbots to obtain information about political preferences.
The election might not be that close after all | 538 Politics podcast
The 538 team discusses whether average polling error in presidential elections could translate into a landslide victory for either candidate.
Will there be a racial realignment in the 2024 election? | 538 Politics podcast
538’s Galen Druke and G. Elliott Morris discuss crosstabs and whether they can predict a racial realignment on Election Day.
What Americans think about the war in Gaza, a year after the Oct. 7 attacks
They've grown less supportive of Israel's actions and U.S. military aid.
Which way are key demographic groups leaning in the 2024 election?
Keep an eye on the gender gap and a possible racial realignment in November.
Black and Arab American voters could swing Michigan's 2024 election
Our third deep dive into polling and other data in the seven swing states.
How does a VP debate affect candidate favorability? | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss how polls show a vice presidential debate has little to no impact on a candidate's favorability.
What issues matter to Americans? | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss how important voters rank climate change, national security and the Middle East ahead of the election.
Does a VP debate impact how voters see presidential candidates?
The 538 team and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss whether a vice presidential debate can impact how viewers see presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
What early polls say about who won the VP debate
Americans are split over whether Vance or Walz won.
How Harris is distancing herself from Biden on the economy | 538 Politics podcast
The 538 team discusses the strategic differences between the Harris campaign when addressing inflation and the economy compared to President Joe Biden.
How a scandal in New York could affect the national House race
538's Galen Druke and G. Elliott Morris discuss allegations of possible violations of ethics rules by Rep. Anthony D'Esposito and what it means for which party wins the House.
Will foreign policy impact the 2024 election? | 538 Politics podcast
The 538 team discusses conflict in the Middle East and whether it impacts whom Americans will cast their ballot for in November.
Why VP debates aren't all that important
Historically, they haven't really moved the polls.
The 2024 election could come down to a single tipping-point state
A close contest means one state could decide the outcome.
Why you can't predict polling error in advance | 538 Politics podcast
The 538 team discusses how polls have underestimated Democratic and Republican support in the past and how unpredictable the direction of polling error can be.
Why the GOP could win Nevada for the first time in 20 years
Our second deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.
The importance of polls and public opinion | 538 Politics podcast
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich talk about the role polling can have in a democracy, from measuring issues voters consider important to providing insight into presidential elections.
What does a margin of error in polling mean? | 538 Politics podcast
The 538 team discusses what you should know about the margin of error of national and state polls.
Efforts to elect more Republican women stalled in the 2024 primaries
But Democratic women could expand their ranks this year after a strong showing.
Can you guess how Americans feel about Trump's platform?
Test your knowledge of what the public thinks about Trump's policies.
Why Democrats are doing better in Senate races than presidentially
The 538 team discusses what our new polling averages say in the states that will decide the Senate majority.
Will the Electoral College benefit Republicans again? | 538 Politics podcast
538's Galen Druke and Geoffrey Skelley talk about the Electoral College advantage in past elections and how it could play out in 2024.
What does early voting data reveal? | 538 Politics podcast
The 538 team discusses whether early voting data is a good indicator of who will win the 2024 presidential election.
How Harris talks about race and gender on the campaign trail | 538 Politics podcast
538's Galen Druke, University of Maryland’s Chryl Laird and Pew Research Center’s Kiana Cox discuss Kamala Harris' approach to talking about her race and gender during the 2024 presidential campaign.
What to know about 'Black Voters for Trump' | 538 Politics podcast
538's Galen Druke and the University of Maryland’s Chryl Laird talk about whether or not Black voters who support Trump are representative of a breakdown in this voting block.
How important is identity to Black voters? | 538 Politics podcast
University of Maryland’s Chryl Laird and Pew Research Center’s Kiana Cox discuss data on "linked fate" across interracial voters and voters of different political ideologies.
Is the gender gap growing? | 538 Politics podcast
538's Galen Druke and The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik discuss how young women are more liberal and what that means for the future electorate.
Does the Taylor Swift effect include voting? | 538 Politics podcast
The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik discusses how Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Kamala Harris has affected voter registration and the presidential race.
What do voters think about political violence? | 538 Politics podcast
538's Galen Druke and The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik talk about the percentage of Americans open to a variety of manifestations, from protesting to more serious violence.
Make your picks on the 2024 Interactive Electoral Map
ABC News Chief Washington Correspondent Jonathan Karl explains how to make your predictions on the 2024 presidential race.
538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.
What are the latest national polls influencing the forecast?
We adjust polls for house effects, mode, partisanship, voter likelihood and third parties and weight them based on their firm’s 538 pollster rating and how often it polls.
| Dates | Pollster Sponsor | 538 Pollster Rating | Result | Net result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 18-20 | 1.8 | Harris 47% 48% Trump | Trump +1 | |
| Oct. 14-18 | 2.9 | Harris 45% 44% Trump | Harris +1 | |
| Oct. 15-17 | No rating | Harris 49% 49% Trump | Even | |
| Oct. 15-17 | 1.8 | Harris 49% 47% Trump | Harris +2 | |
| Oct. 12-17 | 2.7 | Harris 48% 51% Trump | Trump +3 | |
| Oct. 9-17 | No rating | Harris 49% 51% Trump | Trump +2 | |
| Oct. 14-16 | 2.3 | Harris 50% 49% Trump | Harris +1 | |
| Oct. 14-16 | 1.1 | Harris 45% 46% Trump | Trump +1 | |
| Oct. 14-16 | 2.9 | Harris 50% 49% Trump | Harris +1 | |
| Sept. 27-Oct. 16 | No rating | Harris 53% 47% Trump | Harris +6 |
Sponsor
Latest updates
For the first time since 538 published our presidential election forecast for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, Trump has taken the lead (if a very small one) over Harris. As of 3 p.m. Eastern on Oct. 18, our model gives Trump a 52-in-100 chance of winning the majority of Electoral College votes. The model gives Harris a 48-in-100 chance.
The change in candidate’s fortunes came after a slow drip-drip-drip of polls showed the race tightening across the northern and Sun Belt battlegrounds. In our forecast of the popular vote in Pennsylvania, the race has shifted from a 0.6-point lead for Harris on Oct. 1 to a 0.2-point lead for Trump; In Michigan, a 1.8-point Harris lead is now just 0.4 points; And in Wisconsin, a 1.6-point lead for Harris is now an exact tie between the two candidates. Meanwhile, Arizona and Georgia have flipped from toss-ups to “Lean Republican” states.
Still, a word of caution: You might be tempted to make a big deal about our forecast “flipping” to Trump, but it’s important to remember that a 52-in-100 chance for Trump is not all that different from a 58-in-100 chance for Harris — both are little better than a coin flip for the leading candidate. While Trump has undeniably gained some ground over the past couple weeks, a few good polls for Harris could easily put her back in the “lead” tomorrow. Our overall characterization of the race — that it’s a toss-up — remains unchanged.
538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to “call” a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win. Check out our methodology to learn exactly how we calculate these probabilities.
—G. Elliott Morris
How has the forecast changed over time?
The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get new data. Uncertainty will decrease as we get closer to Election Day.
Who’s favored to win each state?
Number of electoral votes and the probability of a Democratic or Republican win in each state. Outlined states are most likely to give the winner their 270th Electoral College vote.
What are the closest races?
Use the table below to sort states by name, forecasted margin of victory or two different metrics of how much influence they have over the outcome.
A state’s tipping-point chance is the probability it will give the Electoral College winner their 270th electoral vote. The Voter Power Index (VPI) is a relative measure of how likely an individual voter in that state is to determine the outcome of the election.
A state’s tipping-point chance is the probability it will give the Electoral College winner their 270th electoral vote. The Voter Power Index (VPI) is a relative measure of how likely an individual voter in that state is to determine the outcome of the election.
What does the path to 270 look like?
Our “snake” chart orders the states by forecasted margin of victory. Scroll to the left or right to see uncompetitive states; more contested states are in the middle. Bigger segments mean more Electoral College votes.
How the popular vote translates into electoral votes
This graph shows the national popular vote margin and Electoral College margin in every model simulation. It shows you how often a candidate wins the Electoral College while losing the popular vote.
What do the polls or fundamentals alone say?
Our forecast is based on a combination of the polls and various economic and political variables we call the “fundamentals.” This chart shows how we get from the polls today to a forecast for Election Day.
Polling average
The state of public opinion today, according only to 538’s average of national polls.
Adjusted polling average
The national polling average adjusted for results of state polls and the effects of party conventions.
Forecast of polling average on Election Day
The adjusted polling average with uncertainty intervals that account for potential movement in the race between now and Election Day. This does not account for the chance that the polls systematically underestimate one candidate.
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Fundamentals-only forecast
What our fundamentals model alone would predict the popular vote margin to be.
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Our final forecast of the popular vote, based on a weighted average of the polls and fundamentals using the weights above. This accounts for the chance that the polls systematically underestimate one candidate.
Forecast components may not exactly add up to full forecast because of rounding and random sampling. (When combining the components, we take a random sample of simulations from each, and they may not exactly match the full sample of simulations.)
Unusual and not-so-unusual scenarios
The probability of each outcome below, according to our simulations.
| Harris wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes) | 12 out of 100 |
| Trump wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes) | 3 out of 100 |
| Harris wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes | 35 out of 100 |
| Trump wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes | 47 out of 100 |
| Harris wins the national popular vote | 67 out of 100 |
| Trump wins the national popular vote | 33 out of 100 |
| Harris wins the national popular vote by 10+ percentage points | 6 out of 100 |
| Trump wins the national popular vote by 10+ percentage points | 1 out of 100 |
| Harris wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College | 18 out of 100 |
| Trump wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College | <1 out of 100 |
| No candidate wins a majority of Electoral College votes | <1 out of 100 |
| Every state votes for the same party that it did in 2020 | 1 out of 100 |
| Election is decided by a recount (winner's margin is <0.5% in a decisive state) | 8 out of 100 |
| Election is decided by a smaller margin than the vote share for third-party candidates | <1 out of 100 |
| Harris wins at least one state Biden didn't win in 2020 | 47 out of 100 |
| Trump wins at least one state he didn't win in 2020 | 82 out of 100 |
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