Welcome to Milwaukee

The 2024 Republican National Convention is underway. Here’s why the Republican Party chose Milwaukee as the host city.

July 15, 2024

The 2024 Republican Party platform is far from traditional

Conservative lawmakers have learned that things don’t go well if they break with their party.

July 12, 2024

Is Trump trying to soften the Republican Party’s least popular positions?

The GOP released its proposed party platform this week.

July 12, 2024

Nancy Pelosi and other lawmakers leave the door open for Biden to withdraw

More Democrats are saying the president shouldn’t run, but he continues on.

July 12, 2024

Americans were worried about Biden's age long before the debate

Polls show even many Democrats think he's too old for a second term.

July 12, 2024

4 reasons to beware of post-debate polling takes

Biden's lost some ground, but it's hard to say much more.

July 11, 2024

What the Democrats doubting Biden have in common

They're more moderate, while his backers are progressive and racially diverse.

July 10, 2024

Why 538's forecast hasn't moved much post-debate

Polls move a lot in the fall, and the fundamentals are still good for Biden.

July 9, 2024

Can Biden recover from the debate?

Avoiding public appearances and minimizing camera time isn’t a scandal, but it doesn’t bode well.

July 9, 2024

What do Democrats really think about Biden continuing to run?

Voters are more concerned about his age than a few years ago, polls show.

July 9, 2024

Why Biden will probably stay in the race despite Democratic dissent

538’s Nathaniel Rakich joins the podcast to shed light on similarities between Biden today and Trump in 2016.

July 9, 2024

Why the Supreme Court tends to release unpopular decisions late in its term

The court may be trying to minimize public backlash over controversial opinions.

July 8, 2024

Would Kamala Harris be a stronger candidate than Biden?

What the 538 forecast would say if the 2024 election were Harris versus Trump.

July 4, 2024

Will President Biden stay in the race?

After fallout from his debate performance, the president's future in the White House has been questioned.

July 4, 2024

Democrats express concern over Biden’s future

With the election months away, 538 breaks down the possibilities and future of President Biden in the White House.

July 4, 2024

Has the United Kingdom established a political identity?

Helen Thompson and David Runciman join 538 to discuss the country's political identity and what to expect in the UK election.

July 4, 2024

The Brexit movement's impact on the present day

Political and economic experts discuss a post-Brexit economy ahead of election day.

July 4, 2024

Making sense of a historic British election

The UK could be on the verge of electing a center-left government, a groundbreaking decision given the country's conservative history in politics.

July 4, 2024

Voters are mad as hell in the UK and France

It's one of many similarities with the U.S. election.

July 3, 2024

Will SCOTUS' blockbuster rulings push Biden criticism out of the headlines?

Since SCOTUS handed down its decisions, the focus appears to have shifted. 538 discusses.

July 2, 2024

538 discusses Justice Amy Coney Barrett's disagreement regarding evidence

Despite Justice Barrett siding with the majority on the presidential immunity case, she dissented on a section of the ruling. 538 has more.

July 2, 2024

SCOTUS ruled on presidential immunity. What does that mean for Trump?

It's very unlikely Trump will stand trial before the 2024 presidential election: 538

July 2, 2024

What the polls say after the first presidential debate

Trump looks to be gaining, but by how much remains to be seen.

July 2, 2024

What Trump's VP pick could mean for 2028

Less than the current front-runners might hope.

July 1, 2024

Who won the first Biden-Trump presidential debate?

We partnered with Ipsos to poll voters before and after the debate.

June 28, 2024

Trump and Biden talk taxes at 1st debate

New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik and senior election analyst Nathaniel Rakich join the 538 Politics podcast to discuss the first presidential debate.

June 28, 2024

Would Biden step aside in 2024 election?

Senior election analyst Nathaniel Rakich reacts to President Joe Biden’s performance at the first debate.

June 28, 2024

Who won the 1st presidential debate?

538's Galen Druke is joined by senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik to talk about the first 2024 presidential debate.

June 28, 2024

Biden's biggest weakness -- his age -- on full display at debate: ANALYSIS

The president's age and perceived frailty became a clear liability on stage.

June 28, 2024

Who will win the first Biden-Trump presidential debate?

We’re partnering with Ipsos to poll voters before and after the debate.

June 27, 2024

Biden and Trump are in a toss-up race for president

Ahead of the first presidential debate on Thursday, 538 looks at the chances of each candidate winning the election this fall.

June 26, 2024

Why the Biden-Trump debate matters more than you think

Debates usually move the polls — and a tied race could shift either way.

June 26, 2024

What to expect from the 1st 2024 presidential debate

President Biden and former President Donald Trump will go head-to-head on Thursday.

June 25, 2024

All eyes on 3 high-profile primaries Tuesday

Polls are open in Colorado, New York, and Utah on Tuesday.

June 25, 2024

Upcoming debate is different than other debates

The debate Thursday between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is the first not run by the Commission on Presidential Debates since 1988.

June 25, 2024

How will polls change after the 1st presidential debate?

The 538 Politics podcast discusses whether President Joe Biden can increase his support until election night.

June 25, 2024

15 elections to watch in New York, Colorado, Utah and South Carolina

Jamaal Bowman and Lauren Boebert could both lose their primaries.

June 24, 2024

Do global election trends provide insight into the US election? 

Experts explain how trends of discontent around the world could help explain the outcome for the 2024 U.S. presidential election. 

June 20, 2024

Why are voters so dissatisfied around the world? 

Experts talk about dissatisfaction among voters around the world.

June 20, 2024

Is discontent a trend for elections around the world?

Discontent among voters has been documented in Europe and the United States. Does this trend also exist in countries with upcoming elections?

June 20, 2024

Beyond the election, how might AI be regulated? | 538 Politics Podcast

Last month, a bipartisan group of senators unveiled a roadmap for artificial intelligence policy, proposing $32 billion in funding to support AI research.

June 13, 2024

Lawmakers feel public pressure to regulate AI | 538 Politics Podcast

Gregory Allen, director of the Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies, joins the 538 Politics podcast.

June 13, 2024

How concerned are Americans with AI? | 538 Politics Podcast

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with Gregory Allen, director of the Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies, about the politics of AI regulation.

June 13, 2024

How 2016 and 2020 polling errors are accounted for in the election forecast

In this episode of the 538 podcast, Elliott explains how the forecast model accounts for historical polling errors to minimize bias and accurately reflect a wide range of potential election outcomes.

June 11, 2024

UPDATED Jul. 18, 2024, at 9:38 PM

Who Is Favored To Win Michigan's 15 Electoral Votes?

538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.

Biden wins 60 times out of 100
in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
Trump wins 40 times out of 100.
A third-party candidate wins less than 1 time out of 100.
Biden
 
 
Trump
 
 
Third party
+
 
 
 simulations
Biden wins Mich.
Trump wins Mich.
No winner
Popular vote margin

What are the latest polls in Michigan?

We adjust polls for house effects, mode, partisanship, voter likelihood and third parties and weight them based on their firm’s 538 pollster rating and how often it polls.

DatesPollster
Sponsor
538 Pollster RatingResultNet result
July 17-18
1.4
Biden
44%
45%
Trump
Trump +1
July 15-16
2.9
Biden
40%
43%
Trump
Trump +3
July 11-13
1.8
Biden
36%
39%
Trump
Trump +3
July 8-10
1.8
Biden
43%
42%
Trump
Biden +1
July 1-5
1.8
Biden
45%
39%
Trump
Biden +6
June 30-July 2
2.9
Biden
44%
45%
Trump
Trump +1
June 29-July 1
2.6
Biden
42%
45%
Trump
Trump +3
June 28-30
No rating
Biden
41%
45%
Trump
Trump +4
June 21-26
2.0
Biden
38%
42%
Trump
Trump +4
June 11-20
Building America's Future
1.2
Biden
40%
43%
Trump
Trump +3
Dates
Pollster
Sponsor
538 Pollster Rating
Result
Net result
44%
45%
Trump +1
40%
43%
Trump +3
36%
39%
Trump +3
45%
39%
Biden +6
44%
45%
Trump +1
42%
45%
Trump +3
June 28-30
No rating
41%
45%
Trump +4
June 21-26
2.0
38%
42%
Trump +4
June 11-20
1.2
40%
43%
Trump +3

How has the forecast changed in Michigan over time?

The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get new data. Uncertainty will decrease as we get closer to Election Day.

What do the polls and fundamentals alone say?

Our forecast is based on a combination of the polls and various economic and political variables we call the “fundamentals.” This chart shows the different components of the forecast in [state] and what they say.

Median
95% of outcomes fall in this range
Margin of victory

Polling average

The state of the polls today according to 538’s polling average only. This does not account for the chance that polls systematically underestimate one candidate.

Adjusted polling average

The polling average adjusted for movement in similar states and the effects of party conventions. This does not account for the chance that polls systematically underestimate one candidate.

Forecast of polling average on Election Day

An adjusted version of our polling average that accounts for potential movement in the race between now and Election Day. This does not account for the chance that the polls systematically underestimate one candidate.

Fundamentals-only forecast

What our fundamentals model alone would predict the popular vote margin to be.

Full forecast

Our final forecast of the popular vote, based on both polls and fundamentals and accounting for the chance that polls systematically underestimate one candidate. Before Election Day, the final forecast in some states can be more Democratic or Republican than the fundamentals and polls because of patterns of overperformance in similar states.

How has [state] voted in the past?

The results of the last six presidential elections in [state] compared with the national popular vote.

20XXDem.Rep.
ST XX.X%XX.X%
U.S.XX.X%XX.X%

See a different contest

Alabama
Better for Cand than ST
Alaska
Better for Cand than ST
Arizona
Better for Cand than ST
Arkansas
Better for Cand than ST
California
Better for Cand than ST
Colorado
Better for Cand than ST
Connecticut
Better for Cand than ST
District of Columbia
Better for Cand than ST
Delaware
Better for Cand than ST
Florida
Better for Cand than ST
Georgia
Better for Cand than ST
Hawaii
Better for Cand than ST
Idaho
Better for Cand than ST
Illinois
Better for Cand than ST
Indiana
Better for Cand than ST
Iowa
Better for Cand than ST
Kansas
Better for Cand than ST
Kentucky
Better for Cand than ST
Louisiana
Better for Cand than ST
Maine
Better for Cand than ST
Maine 1st District
Better for Cand than ST
Maine 2nd District
Better for Cand than ST
Maryland
Better for Cand than ST
Massachusetts
Better for Cand than ST
Michigan
Better for Cand than ST
Minnesota
Better for Cand than ST
Mississippi
Better for Cand than ST
Missouri
Better for Cand than ST
Montana
Better for Cand than ST
Nebraska
Better for Cand than ST
Nebraska 1st District
Better for Cand than ST
Nebraska 2nd District
Better for Cand than ST
Nebraska 3rd District
Better for Cand than ST
Nevada
Better for Cand than ST
New Hampshire
Better for Cand than ST
New Jersey
Better for Cand than ST
New Mexico
Better for Cand than ST
New York
Better for Cand than ST
North Carolina
Better for Cand than ST
North Dakota
Better for Cand than ST
Ohio
Better for Cand than ST
Oklahoma
Better for Cand than ST
Oregon
Better for Cand than ST
Pennsylvania
Better for Cand than ST
Rhode Island
Better for Cand than ST
South Carolina
Better for Cand than ST
South Dakota
Better for Cand than ST
Tennessee
Better for Cand than ST
Texas
Better for Cand than ST
Utah
Better for Cand than ST
Vermont
Better for Cand than ST
Virginia
Better for Cand than ST
Washington
Better for Cand than ST
West Virginia
Better for Cand than ST
Wisconsin
Better for Cand than ST
Wyoming
Better for Cand than ST
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Sources: American National Election Studies, The American Presidency Project at the University of California Santa Barbara, Ballotpedia, Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives, Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, Federal Election Commission, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Our Campaigns, polls, The Roper Center, state election websites, U.S. Census Bureau, University of Michigan Survey Research Center, VoteSmart