UPDATED Jan. 23, 2020, at 8:20 AM

Who Will Win The 2020 Democratic Nomination?

Our latest forecast for how many pledged delegates each candidate will win after all states have voted

FiveThirtyEight’s model simulates the primary season thousands of times to find the most likely outcome for each candidate. The chart shows how many delegates, on average, each candidate is projected to have pledged to them at each point in the primary season, along with a range of possible delegate counts. We’re also showing the distribution of simulated final pledged delegate counts in the table, where taller bars mean a more likely outcome. Right now, many candidates, even the front-runners, wind up with tall bars close to zero — generally, those are simulations where the candidate dropped out before having a chance to accumulate many delegates.

FiveThirtyEight’s model simulates the primary season thousands of times to find the most likely outcome for each candidate. We’re showing the distribution of simulated final pledged delegate counts, where taller bars mean a more likely outcome. Right now, many candidates, even the front-runners, wind up with tall bars close to zero — generally, those are simulations where the candidate dropped out before having a chance to accumulate many delegates.

We’re also charting how many delegates, on average, each candidate is projected to have pledged to them at each point in the primary season, along with a range of possible delegate counts

How each candidate’s chances of winning

have changed over time

Each candidate’s chances of winning

How each candidate’s chances of winning

have changed over time

Welcome to our new 2020 Democratic primary forecast. Predicting the primaries is a tricky business. During the first couple weeks of the model’s life, as we start to see how it reacts to real-world data, we reserve the right to make minor changes and bug fixes. See something you think is wrong? Send us an email.

How does FiveThirtyEight forecast elections? Read our methodology »
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Upcoming primaries and caucuses

Who will win the Iowa caucuses?

Iowa will vote on Feb. 3rd.

Who will win the New Hampshire primary?

New Hampshire will vote on Feb. 11th.

Who will win the Nevada caucuses?

Nevada will vote on Feb. 22nd.

Who will win the South Carolina primary?

South Carolina will vote on Feb. 29th.

Who will win the California primary?

California will vote on March 3rd.

Who will win the Texas primary?

Texas will vote on March 3rd.

Who will win the North Carolina primary?

North Carolina will vote on March 3rd.

Who will win the Virginia primary?

Virginia will vote on March 3rd.

Who will win the Massachusetts primary?

Massachusetts will vote on March 3rd.

Who will win the Minnesota primary?

Minnesota will vote on March 3rd.

Who will win the Colorado primary?

Colorado will vote on March 3rd.

Who will win the Tennessee primary?

Tennessee will vote on March 3rd.

Who will win the Alabama primary?

Alabama will vote on March 3rd.

Who will win the Oklahoma primary?

Oklahoma will vote on March 3rd.

Who will win the Arkansas primary?

Arkansas will vote on March 3rd.

Who will win the Utah primary?

Utah will vote on March 3rd.

Who will win the Maine primary?

Maine will vote on March 3rd.

Who will win the Vermont primary?

Vermont will vote on March 3rd.

Who will win the American Samoa caucuses?

American Samoa will vote on March 3rd.

Who will win the Michigan primary?

Michigan will vote on March 10th.

Who will win the Washington primary?

Washington will vote on March 10th.

Who will win the Missouri primary?

Missouri will vote on March 10th.

Who will win the Mississippi primary?

Mississippi will vote on March 10th.

Who will win the Idaho primary?

Idaho will vote on March 10th.

Who will win the North Dakota primary?

North Dakota will vote on March 10th.

Who will win the Democrats Abroad primary?

Democrats Abroad vote from March 3rd to March 10th.

Who will win the Northern Marianas caucuses?

The Northern Marianas will vote on March 14th.

Who will win the Florida primary?

Florida will vote on March 17th.

Who will win the Illinois primary?

Illinois will vote on March 17th.

Who will win the Ohio primary?

Ohio will vote on March 17th.

Who will win the Arizona primary?

Arizona will vote on March 17th.

Who will win the Georgia primary?

Georgia will vote on March 24th.

Who will win the Puerto Rico primary?

Puerto Rico will vote on March 29th.

Who will win the Louisiana primary?

Louisiana will vote on April 4th.

Who will win the Hawaii primary?

Hawaii will vote on April 4th.

Who will win the Alaska primary?

Alaska will vote on April 4th.

Who will win the Wyoming caucuses?

Wyoming will vote on April 4th.

Who will win the Wisconsin primary?

Wisconsin will vote on April 7th.

Who will win the New York primary?

New York will vote on April 28th.

Who will win the Pennsylvania primary?

Pennsylvania will vote on April 28th.

Who will win the Maryland primary?

Maryland will vote on April 28th.

Who will win the Connecticut primary?

Connecticut will vote on April 28th.

Who will win the Rhode Island primary?

Rhode Island will vote on April 28th.

Who will win the Delaware primary?

Delaware will vote on April 28th.

Who will win the Kansas primary?

Kansas will vote on May 2nd.

Who will win the Guam caucuses?

Guam will vote on May 2nd.

Who will win the Indiana primary?

Indiana will vote on May 5th.

Who will win the Nebraska primary?

Nebraska will vote on May 12th.

Who will win the West Virginia primary?

West Virginia will vote on May 12th.

Who will win the Oregon primary?

Oregon will vote on May 19th.

Who will win the Kentucky primary?

Kentucky will vote on May 19th.

Who will win the New Jersey primary?

New Jersey will vote on June 2nd.

Who will win the New Mexico primary?

New Mexico will vote on June 2nd.

Who will win the District of Columbia primary?

The District of Columbia will vote on June 2nd.

Who will win the Montana primary?

Montana will vote on June 2nd.

Who will win the South Dakota primary?

South Dakota will vote on June 2nd.

Who will win the Virgin Islands caucuses?

The Virgin Islands will vote on June 6th.

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