UPDATED Apr. 4, 2020, at 1:33 AM

Who Will Win The 2020 Democratic Primary?

How each candidate’s chances of winning

have changed over time

Each candidate’s chances of winning

How each candidate’s chances of winning

have changed over time

Our latest forecast for how many pledged delegates each candidate will win after all states have voted

FiveThirtyEight’s model simulates the primary season thousands of times to find the most likely outcome for each candidate, accounting for the margin of their wins and losses, plus the possibility that a trailing candidate might drop out. The chart shows how many delegates, on average, each candidate is projected to have pledged to them at each point in the primary season, along with a range of possible delegate counts. We’re also showing the distribution of simulated final pledged delegate counts in the table, where taller bars mean a more likely outcome.

FiveThirtyEight’s model simulates the primary season thousands of times to find the most likely outcome for each candidate, accounting for the margin of their wins and losses, plus the possibility that a trailing candidate might drop out. We’re showing the distribution of simulated final pledged delegate counts in the table, where taller bars mean a more likely outcome.

We’re also charting how many delegates, on average, each candidate is projected to have pledged to them at each point in the primary season, along with a range of possible delegate counts

Welcome to our new 2020 Democratic primary forecast. Predicting the primaries is a tricky business. See something you think is wrong? Send us an email.

How does FiveThirtyEight forecast elections? Read our methodology »
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Upcoming primaries and caucuses
See completed contests »

Who will win the Alaska primary?

Alaska will vote on April 10th.

Who will win the Wisconsin primary?

Wisconsin will vote on April 13th.

Who will win the Wyoming caucuses?

Wyoming will vote on April 17th.

Who will win the Puerto Rico primary?

Puerto Rico will vote on April 26th.

Who will win the Ohio primary?

Ohio will vote on April 28th.

Who will win the Kansas primary?

Kansas will vote on May 2nd.

Who will win the Guam caucuses?

Guam will vote on May 2nd.

Who will win the Nebraska primary?

Nebraska will vote on May 12th.

Who will win the Georgia primary?

Georgia will vote on May 19th.

Who will win the Oregon primary?

Oregon will vote on May 19th.

Who will win the Hawaii primary?

Hawaii will vote on May 22nd.

Who will win the Pennsylvania primary?

Pennsylvania will vote on June 2nd.

Who will win the New Jersey primary?

New Jersey will vote on June 2nd.

Who will win the Maryland primary?

Maryland will vote on June 2nd.

Who will win the Indiana primary?

Indiana will vote on June 2nd.

Who will win the Connecticut primary?

Connecticut will vote on June 2nd.

Who will win the New Mexico primary?

New Mexico will vote on June 2nd.

Who will win the Rhode Island primary?

Rhode Island will vote on June 2nd.

Who will win the Delaware primary?

Delaware will vote on June 2nd.

Who will win the District of Columbia primary?

The District of Columbia will vote on June 2nd.

Who will win the Montana primary?

Montana will vote on June 2nd.

Who will win the South Dakota primary?

South Dakota will vote on June 2nd.

Who will win the Virgin Islands caucuses?

The Virgin Islands will vote on June 6th.

Who will win the West Virginia primary?

West Virginia will vote on June 9th.

Who will win the Louisiana primary?

Louisiana will vote on June 20th.

Who will win the New York primary?

New York will vote on June 23rd.

Who will win the Kentucky primary?

Kentucky will vote on June 23rd.

Completed primaries and caucuses
See upcoming contests »

New Hampshire forecast and results

New Hampshire voted on Feb. 11th.

Nevada forecast and results

Nevada voted on Feb. 22nd.

South Carolina forecast and results

South Carolina voted on Feb. 29th.

California forecast and results

California voted on March 3rd.

Texas forecast and results

Texas voted on March 3rd.

North Carolina forecast and results

North Carolina voted on March 3rd.

Virginia forecast and results

Virginia voted on March 3rd.

Massachusetts forecast and results

Massachusetts voted on March 3rd.

Minnesota forecast and results

Minnesota voted on March 3rd.

Colorado forecast and results

Colorado voted on March 3rd.

Tennessee forecast and results

Tennessee voted on March 3rd.

Alabama forecast and results

Alabama voted on March 3rd.

Oklahoma forecast and results

Oklahoma voted on March 3rd.

Arkansas forecast and results

Arkansas voted on March 3rd.

Utah forecast and results

Utah voted on March 3rd.

Maine forecast and results

Maine voted on March 3rd.

Vermont forecast and results

Vermont voted on March 3rd.

American Samoa forecast and results

American Samoa voted on March 3rd.

Michigan forecast and results

Michigan voted on March 10th.

Washington forecast and results

Washington voted on March 10th.

Missouri forecast and results

Missouri voted on March 10th.

Mississippi forecast and results

Mississippi voted on March 10th.

Idaho forecast and results

Idaho voted on March 10th.

North Dakota forecast and results

North Dakota voted on March 10th.

Democrats Abroad forecast and results

Democrats Abroad voted from March 3rd to March 10th.

The Northern Marianas forecast and results

The Northern Marianas voted on March 14th.

Florida forecast and results

Florida voted on March 17th.

Illinois forecast and results

Illinois voted on March 17th.

Arizona forecast and results

Arizona voted on March 17th.

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