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Bernie Sanders dropped out April 8, making Joe Biden the presumptive nominee. We will continue to add results from the ongoing primaries, but this forecast has stopped updating.
Who Will Win The 2020 Democratic Primary?
How each candidate’s chances of winning
have changed over time
Each candidate’s chances of winning
How each candidate’s chances of winning
have changed over time
Our latest forecast for how many pledged delegates each candidate will win after all states have voted
FiveThirtyEight’s model simulates the primary season thousands of times to find the most likely outcome for each candidate, accounting for the margin of their wins and losses, plus the possibility that a trailing candidate might drop out. The chart shows how many delegates, on average, each candidate is projected to have pledged to them at each point in the primary season, along with a range of possible delegate counts. We’re also showing the distribution of simulated final pledged delegate counts in the table, where taller bars mean a more likely outcome.
FiveThirtyEight’s model simulates the primary season thousands of times to find the most likely outcome for each candidate, accounting for the margin of their wins and losses, plus the possibility that a trailing candidate might drop out. We’re showing the distribution of simulated final pledged delegate counts in the table, where taller bars mean a more likely outcome.
We’re also charting how many delegates, on average, each candidate is projected to have pledged to them at each point in the primary season, along with a range of possible delegate counts
Welcome to our new 2020 Democratic primary forecast. Predicting the primaries is a tricky business. See something you think is wrong? Send us an email.
How does FiveThirtyEight forecast elections? Read our methodology »Who will win the Puerto Rico primary?
Puerto Rico will vote on April 26th.
This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. These results do not affect the overall forecast.
Who will win the Ohio primary?
Ohio will vote on April 28th.
This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. These results do not affect the overall forecast.
Who will win the Guam caucuses?
Guam will vote on May 2nd.
This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. These results do not affect the overall forecast.
Who will win the Pennsylvania primary?
Pennsylvania will vote on June 2nd.
This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. These results do not affect the overall forecast.
Who will win the Maryland primary?
Maryland will vote on June 2nd.
This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. These results do not affect the overall forecast.
Who will win the Indiana primary?
Indiana will vote on June 2nd.
This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. These results do not affect the overall forecast.
Who will win the New Mexico primary?
New Mexico will vote on June 2nd.
This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. These results do not affect the overall forecast.
Who will win the Rhode Island primary?
Rhode Island will vote on June 2nd.
This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. These results do not affect the overall forecast.
Who will win the Delaware primary?
Delaware will vote on June 2nd.
This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. These results do not affect the overall forecast.
Who will win the District of Columbia primary?
The District of Columbia will vote on June 2nd.
This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. These results do not affect the overall forecast.
Who will win the Montana primary?
Montana will vote on June 2nd.
This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. These results do not affect the overall forecast.
Who will win the South Dakota primary?
South Dakota will vote on June 2nd.
This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. These results do not affect the overall forecast.
Who will win the Virgin Islands caucuses?
The Virgin Islands will vote on June 6th.
This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. These results do not affect the overall forecast.
Who will win the Georgia primary?
Georgia will vote on June 9th.
This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. These results do not affect the overall forecast.
Who will win the West Virginia primary?
West Virginia will vote on June 9th.
This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. These results do not affect the overall forecast.
Who will win the New York primary?
New York will vote on June 23rd.
This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. These results do not affect the overall forecast.
Who will win the Kentucky primary?
Kentucky will vote on June 23rd.
This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. These results do not affect the overall forecast.
Who will win the New Jersey primary?
New Jersey will vote on July 7th.
This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. These results do not affect the overall forecast.
Who will win the Louisiana primary?
Louisiana will vote on July 11th.
This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. These results do not affect the overall forecast.
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