UPDATED Nov. 15, 2021, at 9:45 AM

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Who’s ahead in California?

Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2020 primary polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

Added Sept. 16, 2021

DatesPollsterSampleResultNet result
Governor
Governor
Calif. Calif.
Aug 30-Sep 6, 2021
9,809 RV
Aug 30-Sep 6, 2021
9,809RVNewsom
49%

Newsom

49%

Faulconer

27%
27%
FaulconerNewsom+22
Governor
Calif. Calif.
Aug 30-Sep 6, 2021
9,809 RV
Aug 30-Sep 6, 2021
9,809RVNewsom
50%

Newsom

50%

Kiley

25%
25%
KileyNewsom+25
Governor
Calif. Calif.
Aug 30-Sep 6, 2021
9,809 RV
Aug 30-Sep 6, 2021
9,809RVNewsom
51%

Newsom

51%

Cox

26%
26%
CoxNewsom+25
Governor
Calif. Calif.
Aug 30-Sep 6, 2021
9,809 RV
Aug 30-Sep 6, 2021
9,809RVNewsom
52%

Newsom

52%

Elder

30%
30%
ElderNewsom+22

Key

A = ADULTS

RV = REGISTERED VOTERS

V = VOTERS

LV = LIKELY VOTERS

Sept. 12, 2021

Governor
Governor
Calif. Calif.
Sep 11-13, 2021
1,082 LV
Sep 11-13, 2021
1,082LVPaffrath
10%

Paffrath

10%

Elder

41%

Faulconer

4%

Kiley

4%

McGowan

4%

Cox

3%

Ross

1%

Drake

1%

Jenner

1%
MoreElder+32
Governor
Calif. Calif.
Sep 10-11, 2021
1,000 LV
Sep 10-11, 2021
1,000LVDrake
6%

Drake

6%

Elder

30%

Paffrath

6%

Faulconer

4%

Kiley

4%

McGowan

3%

Cox

3%

Jenner

2%

Ose

1%
MoreElder+24

Sept. 9, 2021

Governor
Governor
Calif. Calif.
Sep 2-10, 2021
2,557 LV
Sep 2-10, 2021
2,557LVElder
22%

Elder

22%

Cox

7%

Paffrath

6%

Ross

5%

McGowan

4%

Faulconer

4%

Kiley

3%

Watts

3%

Baade

2%

Jenner

1%
MoreElder+15
Governor
Calif. Calif.
Aug 30-Sep 6, 2021
4,441 LV
Aug 30-Sep 6, 2021
4,441LVPaffrath
10%

Paffrath

10%

Elder

38%

Faulconer

8%

Cox

4%

Kiley

4%

Ross

4%

McGowan

2%

Ventresca

2%

Baade

1%

Drake

1%

Hewitt

1%

Jenner

1%

Kapelovitz

1%

Kilpatrick

1%

Perez-Serrato

1%

Watts

1%
MoreElder+28

Sept. 8, 2021

Governor
Governor
Calif. Calif.
Sep 7-8, 2021
597 LV
Sep 7-8, 2021
597LVPaffrath
9%

Paffrath

9%

Elder

29%

Cox

8%

Faulconer

6%

Drake

4%

Baade

4%

McGowan

4%

Ross

3%

Kiley

3%

Kilpatrick

2%

Ventresca

2%

Watts

2%

Jenner

2%

Perez-Serrato

1%
MoreElder+20

Sept. 7, 2021

Governor
Governor
Calif. Calif.
Sep 6-7, 2021
500 LV
Sep 6-7, 2021
500LVElder
39%

Elder

39%

Faulconer

5%

Paffrath

5%

Cox

4%

Kiley

2%

McGowan

2%

Ross

2%

Drake

1%

Gaines

1%

Hewitt

1%

Jenner

1%

Ventresca

1%

Baade

0%

Perez-Serrato

0%
MoreElder+34
Governor
Calif. Calif.
Aug 27-Sep 1, 2021
1,955 LV
Aug 27-Sep 1, 2021
1,955LVPaffrath
6%

Paffrath

6%

Elder

20%

Faulconer

4%

Cox

4%

McGowan

2%

Kiley

2%

Watts

2%

Ross

1%

Angelyne

1%

Baade

1%

Drake

1%

Stoner

1%

Jenner

1%

Lodge

1%

Lozano

1%

Ventresca

1%

Kapelovitz

1%

Perez-Serrato

1%

Moore

1%

Ose

1%

Kaul

1%

Trimino

1%

Loebs

1%

Gaines

1%

Kilpatrick

1%

Newman

1%

Collins

1%

Martinez

1%

Hewitt

1%

Marciniak

0%

Le Roux

0%

Gallucci

0%

Richter

0%

Furin

0%

Hanink

0%

Symmon

0%

Singh

0%

Lucey

0%

Stephens

0%

Hillberg

0%

Zacky

0%

Killens

0%

Papagan

0%

Wildstar

0%

Bramante

0%

Mercuri

0%
MoreElder+14
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