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Who’s ahead in the Pennsylvania governor race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

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A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Nov. 5, 2022

Governor, Pennsylvania, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

450LV
Nov.4-6
450LV
Shapiro
55%
Shapiro
55%

Shapiro

55%

Mastriano

43%
43%
Mastriano  Shapiro+12
631LV
Nov.2-6
631LV
Shapiro
52%
Shapiro
52%

Shapiro

52%

Mastriano

46%

Hackenburg

1%
46%
MastrianoShapiro+6
904RV
Nov.2-6
904RV
Shapiro
52%
Shapiro
52%

Shapiro

52%

Mastriano

38%

Hackenburg

2%
38%
MastrianoShapiro+14

Nov. 4, 2022

Governor, Pennsylvania, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

846RV
Nov.2-5
846RV
Shapiro
52%
Shapiro
52%

Shapiro

52%

Mastriano

45%
45%
Mastriano  Shapiro+7
249LV
Aug.7-Nov.5
249LV
Shapiro
54%
Shapiro
54%

Shapiro

54%

Mastriano

46%
46%
Mastriano  Shapiro+8

Nov. 2, 2022

Governor, Pennsylvania, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

750LV
Nov.3
750LV
Shapiro
51%
Shapiro
51%

Shapiro

51%

Mastriano

43%

Hackenburg

2%
43%
MastrianoShapiro+8
1,097LV
Nov.1-3
1,097LV
Shapiro
50%
Shapiro
50%

Shapiro

50%

Mastriano

45%
45%
Mastriano  Shapiro+4

Nov. 1, 2022

Governor, Pennsylvania, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

1,180LV
Nov.1-2
1,180LV
Shapiro
52%
Shapiro
52%

Shapiro

52%

Mastriano

40%

Hackenburg

2%

DiGiulio

1%
40%
MastrianoShapiro+12
1,152RV
Oct.31-Nov.2
1,152RV
Shapiro
54%
Shapiro
54%

Shapiro

54%

Mastriano

39%
39%
Mastriano  Shapiro+15

Oct. 31, 2022

Governor, Pennsylvania, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

700LV
Oct.28-Nov.1
700LV
Shapiro
52%
Shapiro
52%

Shapiro

52%

Mastriano

38%
38%
Mastriano  Shapiro+14
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.avg.

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Candidate is an incumbent

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Republican-funded

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