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Who’s ahead in the California 10th District House race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

U.S. House, CA-10, 2018

501RV
Oct.21-25
501RV
Harder
48%
Harder
48%

Harder

48%

Denham

39%
39%
Denham  Harder+9
501LV
Oct.21-25
501LV
Harder
47%
Harder
47%

Harder

47%

Denham

45%
45%
Denham  Harder+2
726LV
Sep.16-23
726LV
Harder
50%
Harder
50%

Harder

50%

Denham

45%
45%
Denham  Harder+5
501LV
Jun.27-Jul.1
501LV
Harder
48%
Harder
48%

Harder

48%

Denham

48%
48%
Denham  Even
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Candidate is an incumbent

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Campaign poll

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