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Who’s ahead in the California 4 House race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Oct. 13, 2020

U.S. House, CA-4, 2020

958LV
Oct.12-14
958LV
Kennedy
45%
Kennedy
45%

Kennedy

45%

McClintock

49%
49%
McClintock  McClintock+4

July 24, 2020

U.S. House, CA-4, 2020

650LV
Jul.22-25
650LV
Kennedy
42%
Kennedy
42%

Kennedy

42%

McClintock

45%
45%
McClintock  McClintock+3

May 3, 2020

U.S. House, CA-4, 2020

2,196LV
Apr.26-May 4
2,196LV
Kennedy
40%
Kennedy
40%

Kennedy

40%

McClintock

46%
46%
McClintock  McClintock+6

Oct. 15, 2018

U.S. House, CA-4, 2018

840LV
Oct.15-16
840LV
Morse
45%
Morse
45%

Morse

45%

McClintock

49%
49%
McClintock  McClintock+4
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Candidate is an incumbent

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Campaign poll

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