See who's ahead in our 2020 national polling averages 📈

UPDATED Oct. 20, 2020, at 10:49 AM

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Who’s ahead in California’s 4th District?

Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2020 primary polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

 

DatesPollsterSampleResultNet result
U.S. House
U.S. House
CA-4CA-4
Oct 12-14, 2020
958 LV
Oct 12-14, 2020
958LVKennedy
45%

Kennedy

45%

McClintock

49%
49%
McClintockMcClintock+4

Key

A = ADULTS

RV = REGISTERED VOTERS

V = VOTERS

LV = LIKELY VOTERS

July 31, 2020

U.S. House
U.S. House
CA-4CA-4
Jul 22-25, 2020
650 LV
Jul 22-25, 2020
650LVKennedy
42%

Kennedy

42%

McClintock

45%
45%
McClintockMcClintock+3
U.S. House
CA-4CA-4
Apr 26-May 4, 2020
2,196 LV
Apr 26-May 4, 2020
2,196LVKennedy
40%

Kennedy

40%

McClintock

46%
46%
McClintockMcClintock+6

Oct. 23, 2018

U.S. House
U.S. House
CA-4CA-4
Oct 15-16, 2018
840 LV
Oct 15-16, 2018
840LVMorse
45%

Morse

45%

McClintock

49%
49%
McClintockMcClintock+4

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