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Who’s ahead in the Kansas 4th District House race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

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A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Sept. 29, 2020

U.S. House, KS-4, 2020

842LV
Sep.29-30
842LV
Lombard
37%
Lombard
37%

Lombard

37%

Estes

51%
51%
Estes  Estes+14

Oct. 27, 2018

U.S. House, KS-4, 2018

262LV
Oct.26-28
262LV
Thompson
33%
Thompson
33%

Thompson

33%

Estes

63%
63%
Estes  Estes+30

Sept. 27, 2018

U.S. House, KS-4, 2018

256RV
Sep.26-28
256RV
Thompson
26%
Thompson
26%

Thompson

26%

Estes

50%
50%
Estes  Estes+24

July 18, 2018

U.S. House, KS-4, 2018

1,896LV
Jul.17-19
1,896LV
Thompson
38%
Thompson
38%

Thompson

38%

Estes

42%
42%
Estes  Estes+4
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