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Who’s ahead in the Pennsylvania 16th District House race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending June 22, 2020

U.S. House, PA-16, 2020

726V
Jun.22-23
726V
Gnibus
40%
Gnibus
40%

Gnibus

40%

Kelly

48%
48%
Kelly  Kelly+8

Oct. 29, 2018

U.S. House, PA-16, 2018

405LV
Oct.29-30
405LV
DiNicola
51%
DiNicola
51%

DiNicola

51%

Kelly

47%
47%
Kelly  DiNicola+4

Oct. 9, 2018

U.S. House, PA-16, 2018

548LV
Oct.9-10
548LV
DiNicola
46%
DiNicola
46%

DiNicola

46%

Kelly

49%
49%
Kelly  Kelly+3

Oct. 7, 2018

U.S. House, PA-16, 2018

532RV
Oct.5-8
532RV
DiNicola
37%
DiNicola
37%

DiNicola

37%

Kelly

51%
51%
Kelly  Kelly+14
532LV
Oct.5-8
532LV
DiNicola
42%
DiNicola
42%

DiNicola

42%

Kelly

50%
50%
Kelly  Kelly+9

June 6, 2018

U.S. House, PA-16, 2018

400LV
Jun.5-7
400LV
DiNicola
44%
DiNicola
44%

DiNicola

44%

Kelly

50%
50%
Kelly  Kelly+6
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Candidate is an incumbent

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Republican-funded

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