UPDATED Sep. 29, 2022, at 1:20 PM

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Who’s ahead in the Kentucky Senate race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

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A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Jan. 21, 2022

U.S. Senate, Kentucky, 2022

625RV
Jan.19-22
625RV
Booker
39%
Booker
39%

Booker

39%

Paul

55%
55%
Paul  Paul+16

Oct. 31, 2020

U.S. Senate, Kentucky, 2020

365LV
Oct.23-Nov.1
365LV
McGrath
46%
McGrath
46%

McGrath

46%

McConnell

49%

Barron

5%
49%
McConnellMcConnell+3

Oct. 30, 2020

U.S. Senate, Kentucky, 2020

911LV
Oct.22-31
911LV
McGrath
40%
McGrath
40%

McGrath

40%

McConnell

51%
51%
McConnell  McConnell+11

Oct. 27, 2020

U.S. Senate, Kentucky, 2020

250RV
Oct.16-28
250RV
McGrath
40%
McGrath
40%

McGrath

40%

McConnell

50%
50%
McConnell  McConnell+10

Oct. 19, 2020

U.S. Senate, Kentucky, 2020

640LV
Oct.19-20
640LV
McGrath
40%
McGrath
40%

McGrath

40%

McConnell

50%

Barron

5%
50%
McConnellMcConnell+10
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