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Who’s ahead in the Minnesota 2nd District House race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Oct. 15, 2022

U.S. House, MN-2, 2022

586LV
Oct.13-16
586LV
Craig
46%
Craig
46%

Craig

46%

Kistner

45%

Overby

5%
45%
KistnerCraig+1

July 25, 2022

U.S. House, MN-2, 2022

400LV
Jul.19-26
400LV
Craig
47%
Craig
47%

Craig

47%

Kistner

46%
46%
Kistner  Craig+1

May 14, 2022

U.S. House, MN-2, 2022

450LV
May 14-15
450LV
Craig
43%
Craig
43%

Craig

43%

Kistner

38%

Overby

4%
38%
KistnerCraig+5

Oct. 13, 2020

U.S. House, MN-2, 2020

400LV
Oct.12-14
400LV
Craig
53%
Craig
53%

Craig

53%

Kistner

35%

Weeks

4%
35%
KistnerCraig+18

July 7, 2020

U.S. House, MN-2, 2020

401LV
Jul.6-8
401LV
Craig
45%
Craig
45%

Craig

45%

Kistner

36%

Weeks

6%
36%
KistnerCraig+9
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Candidate is an incumbent

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