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Who’s ahead in the Montana House race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Oct. 13, 2022

U.S. House, MT-2, 2022

183A
Oct.3-14
183A
Buchanan
27%
Buchanan
27%

Buchanan

27%

Rosendale

40%

Ronning

14%

Rankin

5%
40%
RosendaleRosendale+13

U.S. House, MT-1, 2022

143A
Oct.3-14
143A
Tranel
32%
Tranel
32%

Tranel

32%

Zinke

34%

Lamb

12%
34%
ZinkeZinke+2

Sept. 30, 2022

U.S. House, MT-1, 2022

840LV
Sep.27-Oct.1
840LV
Tranel
40%
Tranel
40%

Tranel

40%

Zinke

41%

Lamb

8%
41%
ZinkeZinke+1

Sept. 18, 2022

U.S. House, MT-1, 2022

400LV
Sep.14-19
400LV
Tranel
43%
Tranel
43%

Tranel

43%

Zinke

45%

Lamb

3%
45%
ZinkeZinke+2

Oct. 23, 2020

U.S. House, MT-1, 2020

546LV
Oct.19-24
546LV
Williams
46%
Williams
46%

Williams

46%

Rosendale

47%
47%
Rosendale  Rosendale+1

Oct. 19, 2020

U.S. House, MT-1, 2020

758LV
Oct.18-20
758LV
Williams
46%
Williams
46%

Williams

46%

Rosendale

50%
50%
Rosendale  Rosendale+4
500LV
Oct.15-20
500LV
Williams
46%
Williams
46%

Williams

46%

Rosendale

46%
46%
Rosendale  Even
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Candidate is an incumbent

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