UPDATED Sep. 27, 2022, at 8:10 PM

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Who’s ahead in the Montana House race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Sept. 18, 2022

U.S. House, MT-1, 2022

400LV
Sep.14-19
400LV
Tranel
43%
Tranel
43%

Tranel

43%

Zinke

45%

Lamb

3%
45%
ZinkeZinke+2

Oct. 23, 2020

U.S. House, MT-1, 2020

546LV
Oct.19-24
546LV
Williams
46%
Williams
46%

Williams

46%

Rosendale

47%
47%
Rosendale  Rosendale+1

Oct. 19, 2020

U.S. House, MT-1, 2020

758LV
Oct.18-20
758LV
Williams
46%
Williams
46%

Williams

46%

Rosendale

50%
50%
Rosendale  Rosendale+4
500LV
Oct.15-20
500LV
Williams
46%
Williams
46%

Williams

46%

Rosendale

46%
46%
Rosendale  Even

Oct. 17, 2020

U.S. House, MT-1, 2020

800LV
Oct.15-18
800LV
Williams
47%
Williams
47%

Williams

47%

Rosendale

47%
47%
Rosendale  Even

Oct. 1, 2020

U.S. House, MT-1, 2020

1,615LV
Sep.14-Oct.2
1,615LV
Williams
46%
Williams
46%

Williams

46%

Rosendale

48%
48%
Rosendale  Rosendale+2
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