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Who’s ahead in the New York 1 House race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Oct. 7, 2020

U.S. House, NY-1, 2020

402LV
Oct.5-8
402LV
Goroff
48%
Goroff
48%

Goroff

48%

Zeldin

49%
49%
Zeldin  Zeldin+1

Aug. 9, 2020

U.S. House, NY-1, 2020

400LV
Aug.5-10
400LV
Goroff
48%
Goroff
48%

Goroff

48%

Zeldin

46%
46%
Zeldin  Goroff+2

Aug. 4, 2020

U.S. House, NY-1, 2020

400LV
Aug.3-5
400LV
Goroff
42%
Goroff
42%

Goroff

42%

Zeldin

47%
47%
Zeldin  Zeldin+5

July 14, 2020

U.S. House, NY-1, 2020

1,100V
Jul.14-15
1,100V
Goroff
40%
Goroff
40%

Goroff

40%

Zeldin

47%
47%
Zeldin  Zeldin+7

Oct. 28, 2018

U.S. House, NY-1, 2018

838LV
Oct.27-29
838LV
Gershon
37%
Gershon
37%

Gershon

37%

Zeldin

52%
52%
Zeldin  Zeldin+15
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Candidate is an incumbent

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Campaign poll

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