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Who’s ahead in the New York 11th District House race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

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A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Sept. 29, 2022

U.S. House, NY-11, 2022

451LV
Sep.27-30
451LV
Rose
43%
Rose
43%

Rose

43%

Malliotakis

49%
49%
Malliotakis  Malliotakis+6

June 25, 2022

U.S. House, NY-11, 2022

400LV
Jun.23-26
400LV
Rose
36%
Rose
36%

Rose

36%

Malliotakis

51%
51%
Malliotakis  Malliotakis+15

Oct. 20, 2020

U.S. House, NY-11, 2020

861RV
Oct.19-21
861RV
Rose
47%
Rose
47%

Rose

47%

Malliotakis

46%
46%
Malliotakis  Rose+1
650LV
Oct.19-21
650LV
Rose
46%
Rose
46%

Rose

46%

Malliotakis

48%
48%
Malliotakis  Malliotakis+2

Oct. 26, 2018

Sept. 4, 2018

U.S. House, NY-11, 2018

509V
Sep.4-5
509V
Rose
39%
Rose
39%

Rose

39%

Donovan

47%
47%
Donovan  Donovan+8
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Candidate is an incumbent

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Campaign poll

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