What Redistricting Looks Like In Every State
An updating tracker of proposed congressional maps — and whether they might benefit Democrats or Republicans in the 2022 midterms and beyond.
Map source: New York Independent Redistricting Commission
|"Names" draft plan||R+4.5|
|"Letters" draft plan||R+4.7|
|"Letters" draft plan||D+0.8|
|"Names" draft plan||R+10.5|
|"Letters" draft plan||3/26|
|"Names" draft plan||3/26|
|District||Incumbent||Partisan lean||Racial makeup|
Andrew R. GarbarinoR
Gregory W. MeeksD
Nydia M. VelázquezD
Yvette D. ClarkeD
Sean Patrick MaloneyD
Paul D. TonkoD
Joseph D. MorelleD
The racial makeup of each district is of the voting-age population.
The latest in New York
New York’s bipartisan redistricting commission released two draft maps on Sept. 15, neither of which are likely to be passed into law. The two maps don’t depart dramatically from the current partisan makeup of the state’s House delegation, which comprises 19 Democrats and eight Republicans. New York is losing a congressional district this cycle, and one of the maps would likely subtract that seat from the Republican column. In the other, Democrats would likely lose the seat, while another existing seat would flip to Republicans.
If these maps were at all likely to be implemented, there would be much more to say about how they draw some incumbents into the same district and what it all means for the prospects of either party winning the House in 2022. But in reality, these maps are dead on arrival. New York’s redistricting laws give the state legislature the ability to sidestep the commission map by passing a different map with a two-thirds vote (a referendum being put to voters this November would lower that threshold to a simple majority). And given their legislative supermajorities, it’s likely that Democrats in the state will ignore the commission and draw their own gerrymander, unless the commission’s maps are pretty beneficial to Democrats — and these are not.
Given that we generally expect Republicans in the Sun Belt to pick up House seats through gerrymandering, and Democratic-controlled states like California, Virginia and Colorado have independent commissions that can’t be overridden, Democratic gerrymandering in New York is one of the party’s only avenues for picking up seats through the redistricting process. Since New York Democrats are plenty aware of this fact, the final map they enact may be closer to a 23-3 Democratic advantage.