Updated Aug. 8, 2020 at 1:27 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Giants have an 8% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1453, down 3 points from last week.

NL West standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
DodgersDodgers10-40.599%82%
RockiesRockies10-372%11%
PadresPadres8-62.564%6%
DbacksDiamondbacks5-95.528%1%
GiantsGiants6-95.08%<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/8Saturday, Aug. 89:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
1453+2+0=145528%
LADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1591+16+10=161772%
8/9Sunday, Aug. 94:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
14537+0=144627%
LADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1591+21+10=162273%
8/10Monday, Aug. 109 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+13=145135%
HOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
156717+6=155665%
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 119:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+0=145433%
HOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+10=157767%
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Samardzija, Jeff
Samardzija
1453+2+0=145531%
HOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1567+15+10=159269%
8/14Friday, Aug. 149:45 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Montas, Frankie
Montas
1531+18+0=154962%
SFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
1453+2+8=146338%
8/15Saturday, Aug. 157:15 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Luzardo, Jesus
Luzardo
153110+0=152159%
SFSFGiants
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
14537+10=145641%
8/16Sunday, Aug. 164:05 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Manaea, Sean
Manaea
1531+1+0=153260%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+10=146440%
8/17Monday, Aug. 179:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+12=145241%
LAALAAAngels
Canning, Griffin
Canning
1499+5+10=151459%
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 184 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Samardzija, Jeff
Samardzija
1453+2+0=145541%
LAALAAAngels
Heaney, Andrew
Heaney
1499+7+10=151659%
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 1910 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1499+12=149855%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+8=146245%
8/20Thursday, Aug. 209:45 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1499+1+0=150055%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+10=146445%
8/21Friday, Aug. 219:45 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+01=150356%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+10=146444%
8/22Saturday, Aug. 229:15 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+0=150456%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+10=146444%
8/23Sunday, Aug. 234:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+0=150456%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+10=146444%
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 259:45 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+0=159267%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+12=146633%
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 2610 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+0=159268%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+10=146432%
8/27Thursday, Aug. 279:15 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+0=159268%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+10=146432%
8/28Friday, Aug. 289:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+13=145141%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+10=151459%
8/29Saturday, Aug. 298:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+0=145441%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+10=151459%
8/30Sunday, Aug. 304 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+0=145441%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+10=151459%
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 18:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+11=145342%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+10=151258%
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 23:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+0=145442%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+10=151258%
9/4Friday, Sept. 49:45 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+02=150256%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+9=146344%
9/5Saturday, Sept. 59:15 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+0=150456%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+10=146444%
9/6Sunday, Sept. 64:05 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+0=150456%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+10=146444%
9/7Monday, Sept. 79:15 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+0=150456%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+10=146444%
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 89:45 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+23=143947%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+10=146453%
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 99:45 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+0=144247%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+10=146453%
9/10Thursday, Sept. 109:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+12=145241%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+10=151759%
9/11Friday, Sept. 119:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+0=145441%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+10=151759%
9/12Saturday, Sept. 129:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+0=145441%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+10=151759%
9/13Sunday, Sept. 134:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+0=145441%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+10=151759%
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 159:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+11=145350%
SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+9=145150%
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 169:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+0=145450%
SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+10=145250%
9/18Friday, Sept. 189:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+11=145338%
OAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+9=154162%
9/19Saturday, Sept. 194:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+0=145438%
OAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+10=154262%
9/20Sunday, Sept. 204:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+0=145438%
OAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+10=154262%
9/21Monday, Sept. 219:45 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+03=149955%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+9=146345%
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 229:45 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+0=150256%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+10=146444%
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 239:45 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+0=150256%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+10=146444%
9/24Thursday, Sept. 243:45 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+0=150256%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+10=146444%
9/25Friday, Sept. 259:45 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+0=150756%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+10=146444%
9/26Saturday, Sept. 269:15 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+0=150756%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+10=146444%
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:05 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+0=150756%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+10=146444%

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/7Friday, Aug. 79:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Samardzija, Jeff
Samardzija
1454+83=145932%2
LADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
15909+11=159268%7
8/6Thursday, Aug. 63:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1455+1+0=145643%4
COLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
14993+10=150657%6
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 58:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Webb, Logan
Webb
14545+0=144939%4
COLCOLRockies
Gray, Jon
Gray
1500+20+10=153061%3
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 48:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
14558+0=144738%2
COLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1499+26+10=153562%5
8/3Monday, Aug. 38:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
1456+23=145545%6
COLCOLRockies
Gonzalez, Chi Chi
Gonzalez
149917+10=149255%7
8/2Sunday, Aug. 24:05 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Allard, Kolby
Allard
147718+0=145947%9
SFSFGiants
Samardzija, Jeff
Samardzija
1458+14+10=148253%5
8/1Saturday, Aug. 19:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
147915+0=146450%3
SFSFGiants
Smyly, Drew
Smyly
1456+1+10=146750%7
7/31Friday, July 319 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Minor, Mike
Minor
1482+182=149855%2
SFSFGiants
Webb, Logan
Webb
14531+10=146245%9
7/30Thursday, July 309:45 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1507+1+0=150858%12
SFSFGiants
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
145410+10=145442%7
7/29Wednesday, July 299:45 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1509+11+0=152058%6
SFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
1453+4+10=146742%7
7/28Tuesday, July 289:45 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Davies, Zach
Davies
150712=150453%5
SFSFGiants
Samardzija, Jeff
Samardzija
1454+17+10=148147%3
7/26Sunday, July 2610 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Smyly, Drew
Smyly
14521+0=145132%3
LADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
158611+10=158568%1
7/25Saturday, July 254:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Webb, Logan
Webb
14513+0=144832%5
LADLADDodgers
Wood, Alex
Wood
158818+10=158068%4
7/24Friday, July 249:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1452+3+0=145531%1
LADLADDodgers
Stripling, Ross
Stripling
15865+10=159169%9
7/23Thursday, July 2310 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
1454+22=145433%1
LADLADDodgers
May, Dustin
May
158417+10=157767%8

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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