Updated Oct. 26, 2020 at 12:57 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Giants are done for the season.

NL West standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
DodgersDodgers43-17
PadresPadres37-236.0
GiantsGiants29-3114.0
RockiesRockies26-3417.0
DbacksDiamondbacks25-3518.0

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:05 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Morejon, Adrian
Morejon
153122+0=150953%5
SFSFGiants
Smyly, Drew
Smyly
1476+3+10=148947%4
9/26Saturday, Sept. 269:15 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Davies, Zach
Davies
1529+52=153257%6
SFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
14786+8=148043%2
9/25Friday, Sept. 2510:15 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Samardzija, Jeff
Samardzija
1478+12=147739%5
SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1528+21+8=155761%6
9/25Friday, Sept. 257:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
15293+0=152655%4
SFSFGiants
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1477+2+10=148945%5
9/24Thursday, Sept. 243:45 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Gonzalez, Chi Chi
Gonzalez
147620+0=145644%5
SFSFGiants
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
1478+10+10=149856%4
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 239:45 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Castellani, Ryan
Castellani
147821+0=145747%2
SFSFGiants
Baragar, Caleb
Baragar
14766+10=148053%7
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 229:45 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
1479+4+0=148350%2
SFSFGiants
Smyly, Drew
Smyly
1475+2+10=148750%5
9/21Monday, Sept. 219:45 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1477+213=149551%7
SFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
1477+1+9=148749%2
9/20Sunday, Sept. 204 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
14721+0=147136%14
OAKOAKAthletics
Minor, Mike
Minor
1543+16+10=156964%2
9/19Saturday, Sept. 194:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
1474+6+0=148041%0
OAKOAKAthletics
Luzardo, Jesus
Luzardo
15418+10=154359%6
9/18Friday, Sept. 189:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Webb, Logan
Webb
147523=147038%0
OAKOAKAthletics
Bassitt, Chris
Bassitt
1539+7+9=155562%6
9/17Thursday, Sept. 174:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1474+2+0=147655%6
SEASEAMariners
Margevicius, Nick
Margevicius
145021+10=143945%4
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 169:45 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Smyly, Drew
Smyly
1472+0+2=147451%9
SEASEAMariners
Newsome, Ljay
Newsome
14521+12=146349%3
9/13Sunday, Sept. 137:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Webb, Logan
Webb
14733+0=147041%1
SDSDPadres
Richards, Garrett
Richards
15317+10=153459%3
9/13Sunday, Sept. 134:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
1474+3+5=148237%0
SDSDPadres
Clevinger, Mike
Clevinger
1529+35+15=157963%6
9/10Thursday, Sept. 109:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Cahill, Trevor
Cahill
147652=146941%1
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
15284+10=153459%6
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 99:45 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Margevicius, Nick
Margevicius
145219+0=143343%1
SFSFGiants
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
14743+10=148157%10
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 89:45 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Newsome, Ljay
Newsome
145313=144945%5
SFSFGiants
Webb, Logan
Webb
14731+10=148255%6
9/7Monday, Sept. 78:05 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1495+36+0=153157%2
SFSFGiants
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
1471+0+10=148143%4
9/6Sunday, Sept. 64:05 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Young, Alex
Young
149717+0=148049%2
SFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
1470+5+10=148551%4
9/5Saturday, Sept. 59:15 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
14986+0=149253%3
SFSFGiants
Cahill, Trevor
Cahill
14684+10=147447%4
9/4Friday, Sept. 49:45 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Clarke, Taylor
Clarke
1497232=147249%6
SFSFGiants
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1469+0+9=147851%5
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 23:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Webb, Logan
Webb
14711+0=147047%6
COLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
1479+3+10=149253%9
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 18:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
146531=146143%23
COLCOLRockies
Gray, Jon
Gray
1485+12+10=150757%5
8/30Sunday, Aug. 304:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
1463+2+0=146547%4
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Clarke, Taylor
Clarke
150126+10=148553%1
8/29Saturday, Aug. 298:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Cahill, Trevor
Cahill
14624+0=145843%5
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
15038+10=150557%2
8/28Friday, Aug. 289:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1463+63=146639%4
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1502+29+12=154361%7
8/27Thursday, Aug. 277:40 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Ferguson, Caleb
Ferguson
159730+0=156764%2
SFSFGiants
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
14646+10=146836%0
8/27Thursday, Aug. 274:05 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1596+21+2=161969%7
SFSFGiants
Webb, Logan
Webb
1465+1+12=147831%0
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 259:45 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
15988+0=159065%8
SFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
1463+5+12=148035%10
8/23Sunday, Aug. 234:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
15079+0=149855%1
SFSFGiants
Cahill, Trevor
Cahill
14619+10=146245%6
8/22Saturday, Aug. 229:15 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1510+28+0=153860%1
SFSFGiants
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1458+0+10=146840%5
8/21Friday, Aug. 219:45 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Ray, Robbie
Ray
1512121=149955%2
SFSFGiants
Webb, Logan
Webb
14563+10=146345%6
8/20Thursday, Aug. 209:45 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Suarez, Jose
Suarez
148934+0=145549%5
SFSFGiants
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
14543+10=146151%10
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 199:45 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Sandoval, Patrick
Sandoval
149212=148954%2
SFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
1451+5+8=146446%7
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 184 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Cahill, Trevor
Cahill
14488+0=144038%8
LAALAAAngels
Bundy, Dylan
Bundy
1495+21+10=152662%2
8/17Monday, Aug. 179:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1449+32=145042%6
LAALAAAngels
Canning, Griffin
Canning
1494+2+10=150658%7
8/16Sunday, Aug. 164:05 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Fiers, Mike
Fiers
15358+0=152760%15
SFSFGiants
Webb, Logan
Webb
14522+10=146040%3
8/15Saturday, Aug. 157:07 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Manaea, Sean
Manaea
15342+0=153260%7
SFSFGiants
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
14522+10=146040%6
8/14Friday, Aug. 149:45 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Luzardo, Jesus
Luzardo
15336+0=152759%8
SFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
1453+1+8=146241%7
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Cahill, Trevor
Cahill
14549+0=144531%1
HOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1563+15+10=158869%5
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 119:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1453+5+0=145838%7
HOUHOUAstros
Bielak, Brandon
Bielak
156427+10=154762%6
8/10Monday, Aug. 109 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Webb, Logan
Webb
1454+03=145136%4
HOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
156316+6=155364%6
8/9Sunday, Aug. 94:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
14557+0=144827%2
LADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1590+22+10=162273%6
8/8Saturday, Aug. 89:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
1453+2+0=145528%5
LADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1591+16+10=161772%4
8/7Friday, Aug. 79:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Samardzija, Jeff
Samardzija
1454+83=145932%2
LADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
15909+11=159268%7
8/6Thursday, Aug. 63:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1455+1+0=145643%4
COLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
14993+10=150657%6
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 58:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Webb, Logan
Webb
14545+0=144939%4
COLCOLRockies
Gray, Jon
Gray
1500+20+10=153061%3
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 48:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
14558+0=144738%2
COLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1499+26+10=153562%5
8/3Monday, Aug. 38:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
1456+23=145545%6
COLCOLRockies
Gonzalez, Chi Chi
Gonzalez
149917+10=149255%7
8/2Sunday, Aug. 24:05 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Allard, Kolby
Allard
147718+0=145947%9
SFSFGiants
Samardzija, Jeff
Samardzija
1458+14+10=148253%5
8/1Saturday, Aug. 19:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
147915+0=146450%3
SFSFGiants
Smyly, Drew
Smyly
1456+1+10=146750%7
7/31Friday, July 319 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Minor, Mike
Minor
1482+182=149855%2
SFSFGiants
Webb, Logan
Webb
14531+10=146245%9
7/30Thursday, July 309:45 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1507+1+0=150858%12
SFSFGiants
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
145410+10=145442%7
7/29Wednesday, July 299:45 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1509+11+0=152058%6
SFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
1453+4+10=146742%7
7/28Tuesday, July 289:45 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Davies, Zach
Davies
150712=150453%5
SFSFGiants
Samardzija, Jeff
Samardzija
1454+17+10=148147%3
7/26Sunday, July 2610 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Smyly, Drew
Smyly
14521+0=145132%3
LADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
158611+10=158568%1
7/25Saturday, July 254:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Webb, Logan
Webb
14513+0=144832%5
LADLADDodgers
Wood, Alex
Wood
158818+10=158068%4
7/24Friday, July 249:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1452+3+0=145531%1
LADLADDodgers
Stripling, Ross
Stripling
15865+10=159169%9
7/23Thursday, July 2310 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
1454+22=145433%1
LADLADDodgers
May, Dustin
May
158417+10=157767%8

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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