Updated Oct. 26, 2020 at 12:57 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Rockies are done for the season.

NL West standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
DodgersDodgers43-17
PadresPadres37-236.0
GiantsGiants29-3114.0
RockiesRockies26-3417.0
DbacksDiamondbacks25-3518.0

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
1476+6+0=148248%3
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
14977+10=150052%11
9/26Saturday, Sept. 268:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1473+25+0=149849%10
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
15003+10=150751%3
9/25Friday, Sept. 2510 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Santos, Antonio
Santos
147516+0=145946%5
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Clarke, Taylor
Clarke
149821+10=148754%11
9/25Friday, Sept. 256:40 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
1477+23=147641%0
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1496+29+12=153759%4
9/24Thursday, Sept. 243:45 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Gonzalez, Chi Chi
Gonzalez
147620+0=145644%5
SFSFGiants
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
1478+10+10=149856%4
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 239:45 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Castellani, Ryan
Castellani
147821+0=145747%2
SFSFGiants
Baragar, Caleb
Baragar
14766+10=148053%7
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 229:45 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
1479+4+0=148350%2
SFSFGiants
Smyly, Drew
Smyly
1475+2+10=148750%5
9/21Monday, Sept. 219:45 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1477+213=149551%7
SFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
1477+1+9=148749%2
9/20Sunday, Sept. 203:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Gonsolin, Tony
Gonsolin
1601+14+0=161568%3
COLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
14754+10=148132%6
9/19Saturday, Sept. 198:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1600+24+0=162472%6
COLCOLRockies
Gonzalez, Chi Chi
Gonzalez
147622+10=146428%1
9/18Friday, Sept. 188:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Wood, Alex
Wood
159820+0=157865%15
COLCOLRockies
Castellani, Ryan
Castellani
147814+10=147435%6
9/17Thursday, Sept. 178:40 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
1597103=158463%9
COLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
1479+4+10=149337%3
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 163:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Fiers, Mike
Fiers
15384+0=153453%3
COLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1481+21+10=151247%1
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 158:40 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Manaea, Sean
Manaea
1539+103=154659%1
COLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
147910+12=148141%3
9/13Sunday, Sept. 133:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Heaney, Andrew
Heaney
1491+15+0=150655%5
COLCOLRockies
Castellani, Ryan
Castellani
148019+10=147145%3
9/12Saturday, Sept. 128:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Barria, Jaime
Barria
14897+0=148248%5
COLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
1482+4+10=149652%2
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:40 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Canning, Griffin
Canning
1491+43=149247%4
COLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1480+21+9=151053%8
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 98:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
14814+0=147740%3
SDSDPadres
Davies, Zach
Davies
1526+13+10=154960%5
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 89:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Gonzalez, Chi Chi
Gonzalez
148316+0=146735%5
SDSDPadres
Clevinger, Mike
Clevinger
1524+38+10=157265%14
9/7Monday, Sept. 79:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
1484+01=148342%0
SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1524+8+8=154058%1
9/6Sunday, Sept. 610:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Castellani, Ryan
Castellani
148210+0=147233%7
LADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
159911+10=159867%6
9/5Saturday, Sept. 59:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1480+17+0=149733%5
LADLADDodgers
Gonsolin, Tony
Gonsolin
1602+6+10=161867%2
9/4Friday, Sept. 49:40 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
148161=147432%6
LADLADDodgers
May, Dustin
May
16008+10=160268%10
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 23:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Webb, Logan
Webb
14711+0=147047%6
COLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
1479+3+10=149253%9
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 18:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
146531=146143%23
COLCOLRockies
Gray, Jon
Gray
1485+12+10=150757%5
8/31Monday, Aug. 319:30 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Richards, Garrett
Richards
151811+0=150749%6
COLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1488+15+10=151351%0
8/30Sunday, Aug. 303:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
15154+0=151152%13
COLCOLRockies
Castellani, Ryan
Castellani
14917+10=149448%2
8/29Saturday, Aug. 298:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Baez, Michel
Baez
151612+0=150453%3
COLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
149014+10=148647%4
8/28Friday, Aug. 288:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Davies, Zach
Davies
1514+133=152453%10
COLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
1492+3+9=150447%4
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 269:40 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Gray, Jon
Gray
1491+11+0=150251%8
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Ray, Robbie
Ray
150316+10=149749%7
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 259:40 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1490+19+0=150951%5
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Young, Alex
Young
150414+10=150049%4
8/24Monday, Aug. 249:30 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Castellani, Ryan
Castellani
148962=148149%3
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Clarke, Taylor
Clarke
150527+7=148551%2
8/23Sunday, Aug. 234:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
14919+0=148235%3
LADLADDodgers
Stripling, Ross
Stripling
159618+10=158865%11
8/22Saturday, Aug. 229:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
1491+2+0=149336%3
LADLADDodgers
May, Dustin
May
159511+10=159464%4
8/21Friday, Aug. 219:40 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Gray, Jon
Gray
1493+133=150334%1
LADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1594+20+7=162166%5
8/20Thursday, Aug. 203:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Javier, Cristian
Javier
157122+0=154953%10
COLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1494+23+10=152747%8
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 198:40 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Valdez, Framber
Valdez
1568323=153355%13
COLCOLRockies
Castellani, Ryan
Castellani
14967+7=149645%6
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 183:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
149719+0=147834%1
HOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1568+14+10=159266%2
8/17Monday, Aug. 179:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
149813=149442%1
HOUHOUAstros
Bielak, Brandon
Bielak
156729+10=154858%2
8/16Sunday, Aug. 163:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Allard, Kolby
Allard
14818+0=147344%6
COLCOLRockies
Gray, Jon
Gray
1496+12+10=151856%10
8/15Saturday, Aug. 158:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Gibson, Kyle
Gibson
148022+0=145839%6
COLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1498+26+10=153461%4
8/14Friday, Aug. 148:40 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Lynn, Lance
Lynn
1479+421=152053%3
COLCOLRockies
Castellani, Ryan
Castellani
149810+12=150047%2
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 123 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
15058+0=149750%13
COLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
150117+10=149450%7
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 118:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1506+23+0=152953%7
COLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
15001+10=150947%8
8/10Monday, Aug. 108:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Ray, Robbie
Ray
150493=149245%12
COLCOLRockies
Gray, Jon
Gray
1502+19+7=152855%8
8/9Sunday, Aug. 94:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1504+28+0=153262%3
SEASEAMariners
Sheffield, Justus
Sheffield
14382+10=144638%5
8/8Saturday, Aug. 89:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Castellani, Ryan
Castellani
150217+0=148559%5
SEASEAMariners
Margevicius, Nick
Margevicius
144027+10=142341%0
8/7Friday, Aug. 79:40 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
1500193=147855%8
SEASEAMariners
Kikuchi, Yusei
Kikuchi
144210+10=144245%4
8/6Thursday, Aug. 63:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1455+1+0=145643%4
COLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
14993+10=150657%6
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 58:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Webb, Logan
Webb
14545+0=144939%4
COLCOLRockies
Gray, Jon
Gray
1500+20+10=153061%3
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 48:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
14558+0=144738%2
COLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1499+26+10=153562%5
8/3Monday, Aug. 38:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
1456+23=145545%6
COLCOLRockies
Gonzalez, Chi Chi
Gonzalez
149917+10=149255%7
8/2Sunday, Aug. 23:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Davies, Zach
Davies
1508+0+0=150854%6
COLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
149724+10=148346%9
8/1Saturday, Aug. 18:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
15107+0=150351%1
COLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
14957+10=149849%6
7/31Friday, July 318:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Richards, Garrett
Richards
150913=150547%8
COLCOLRockies
Gray, Jon
Gray
1496+22+9=152753%7
7/29Wednesday, July 293:30 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1494+27+0=152145%5
OAKOAKAthletics
Montas, Frankie
Montas
1526+18+10=155455%1
7/28Tuesday, July 289:40 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
1491222=146741%8
OAKOAKAthletics
Mengden, Daniel
Mengden
15298+10=153159%3
7/26Sunday, July 262:35 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
14897+0=148247%5
TEXTEXRangers
Kluber, Corey
Kluber
1484+11+10=150553%2
7/25Saturday, July 254:05 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Gray, Jon
Gray
1488+22+0=151050%3
TEXTEXRangers
Minor, Mike
Minor
1485+17+10=151250%2
7/24Friday, July 248:05 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1489+253=151147%0
TEXTEXRangers
Lynn, Lance
Lynn
1484+36+10=153053%1

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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