2020 MLB Predictions

The Rockies are done for the season.

NL West standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Dodgers Dodgers43-17	—	✓	✓
Padres Padres37-23	6.0	✓	—
Giants Giants29-31	14.0	—	—
Rockies Rockies26-34	17.0	—	—
Dbacks Diamondbacks25-35	18.0	—	—

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Freeland	1476	+6	+0	=1482	48%	3
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Bumgarner	1497	–7	+10	=1500	52%	11
9/26Saturday, Sept. 268:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Marquez	1473	+25	+0	=1498	49%	10
9/26Saturday, Sept. 268:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Weaver	1500	–3	+10	=1507	51%	3
9/25Friday, Sept. 2510 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Santos	1475	–16	+0	=1459	46%	5
9/25Friday, Sept. 2510 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Clarke	1498	–21	+10	=1487	54%	11
9/25Friday, Sept. 256:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Senzatela	1477	+2	–3	=1476	41%	0
9/25Friday, Sept. 256:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Gallen	1496	+29	+12	=1537	59%	4
9/24Thursday, Sept. 243:45 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Gonzalez	1476	–20	+0	=1456	44%	5
9/24Thursday, Sept. 243:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Gausman	1478	+10	+10	=1498	56%	4
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 239:45 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Castellani	1478	–21	+0	=1457	47%	2
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 239:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Baragar	1476	–6	+10	=1480	53%	7
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 229:45 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Freeland	1479	+4	+0	=1483	50%	2
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 229:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Smyly	1475	+2	+10	=1487	50%	5
9/21Monday, Sept. 219:45 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Marquez	1477	+21	–3	=1495	51%	7
9/21Monday, Sept. 219:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Cueto	1477	+1	+9	=1487	49%	2
9/20Sunday, Sept. 203:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Gonsolin	1601	+14	+0	=1615	68%	3
9/20Sunday, Sept. 203:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Senzatela	1475	–4	+10	=1481	32%	6
9/19Saturday, Sept. 198:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Kershaw	1600	+24	+0	=1624	72%	6
9/19Saturday, Sept. 198:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Gonzalez	1476	–22	+10	=1464	28%	1
9/18Friday, Sept. 188:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Wood	1598	–20	+0	=1578	65%	15
9/18Friday, Sept. 188:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Castellani	1478	–14	+10	=1474	35%	6
9/17Thursday, Sept. 178:40 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Urias	1597	–10	–3	=1584	63%	9
9/17Thursday, Sept. 178:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Freeland	1479	+4	+10	=1493	37%	3
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 163:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Fiers	1538	–4	+0	=1534	53%	3
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 163:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Marquez	1481	+21	+10	=1512	47%	1
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 158:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Manaea	1539	+10	–3	=1546	59%	1
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 158:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Senzatela	1479	–10	+12	=1481	41%	3
9/13Sunday, Sept. 133:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Heaney	1491	+15	+0	=1506	55%	5
9/13Sunday, Sept. 133:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Castellani	1480	–19	+10	=1471	45%	3
9/12Saturday, Sept. 128:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Barria	1489	–7	+0	=1482	48%	5
9/12Saturday, Sept. 128:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Freeland	1482	+4	+10	=1496	52%	2
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:40 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Canning	1491	+4	–3	=1492	47%	4
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Marquez	1480	+21	+9	=1510	53%	8
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 98:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Senzatela	1481	–4	+0	=1477	40%	3
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 98:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Davies	1526	+13	+10	=1549	60%	5
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 89:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Gonzalez	1483	–16	+0	=1467	35%	5
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 89:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Clevinger	1524	+38	+10	=1572	65%	14
9/7Monday, Sept. 79:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Freeland	1484	+0	–1	=1483	42%	0
9/7Monday, Sept. 79:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Lamet	1524	+8	+8	=1540	58%	1
9/6Sunday, Sept. 610:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Castellani	1482	–10	+0	=1472	33%	7
9/6Sunday, Sept. 610:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Urias	1599	–11	+10	=1598	67%	6
9/5Saturday, Sept. 59:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Marquez	1480	+17	+0	=1497	33%	5
9/5Saturday, Sept. 59:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Gonsolin	1602	+6	+10	=1618	67%	2
9/4Friday, Sept. 49:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Senzatela	1481	–6	–1	=1474	32%	6
9/4Friday, Sept. 49:40 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	May	1600	–8	+10	=1602	68%	10
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 23:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Webb	1471	–1	+0	=1470	47%	6
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 23:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Freeland	1479	+3	+10	=1492	53%	9
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 18:40 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Gausman	1465	–3	–1	=1461	43%	23
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 18:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Gray	1485	+12	+10	=1507	57%	5
8/31Monday, Aug. 319:30 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Richards	1518	–11	+0	=1507	49%	6
8/31Monday, Aug. 319:30 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Marquez	1488	+15	+10	=1513	51%	0
8/30Sunday, Aug. 303:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Paddack	1515	–4	+0	=1511	52%	13
8/30Sunday, Aug. 303:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Castellani	1491	–7	+10	=1494	48%	2
8/29Saturday, Aug. 298:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Baez	1516	–12	+0	=1504	53%	3
8/29Saturday, Aug. 298:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Senzatela	1490	–14	+10	=1486	47%	4
8/28Friday, Aug. 288:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Davies	1514	+13	–3	=1524	53%	10
8/28Friday, Aug. 288:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Freeland	1492	+3	+9	=1504	47%	4
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 269:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Gray	1491	+11	+0	=1502	51%	8
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 269:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Ray	1503	–16	+10	=1497	49%	7
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 259:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Marquez	1490	+19	+0	=1509	51%	5
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 259:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Young	1504	–14	+10	=1500	49%	4
8/24Monday, Aug. 249:30 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Castellani	1489	–6	–2	=1481	49%	3
8/24Monday, Aug. 249:30 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Clarke	1505	–27	+7	=1485	51%	2
8/23Sunday, Aug. 234:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Senzatela	1491	–9	+0	=1482	35%	3
8/23Sunday, Aug. 234:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Stripling	1596	–18	+10	=1588	65%	11
8/22Saturday, Aug. 229:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Freeland	1491	+2	+0	=1493	36%	3
8/22Saturday, Aug. 229:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	May	1595	–11	+10	=1594	64%	4
8/21Friday, Aug. 219:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Gray	1493	+13	–3	=1503	34%	1
8/21Friday, Aug. 219:40 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Buehler	1594	+20	+7	=1621	66%	5
8/20Thursday, Aug. 203:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Javier	1571	–22	+0	=1549	53%	10
8/20Thursday, Aug. 203:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Marquez	1494	+23	+10	=1527	47%	8
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 198:40 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1568	–32	–3	=1533	55%	13
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 198:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Castellani	1496	–7	+7	=1496	45%	6
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 183:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Senzatela	1497	–19	+0	=1478	34%	1
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 183:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Greinke	1568	+14	+10	=1592	66%	2
8/17Monday, Aug. 179:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Freeland	1498	–1	–3	=1494	42%	1
8/17Monday, Aug. 179:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Bielak	1567	–29	+10	=1548	58%	2
8/16Sunday, Aug. 163:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Allard	1481	–8	+0	=1473	44%	6
8/16Sunday, Aug. 163:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Gray	1496	+12	+10	=1518	56%	10
8/15Saturday, Aug. 158:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Gibson	1480	–22	+0	=1458	39%	6
8/15Saturday, Aug. 158:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Marquez	1498	+26	+10	=1534	61%	4
8/14Friday, Aug. 148:40 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Lynn	1479	+42	–1	=1520	53%	3
8/14Friday, Aug. 148:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Castellani	1498	–10	+12	=1500	47%	2
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 123 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Weaver	1505	–8	+0	=1497	50%	13
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 123 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Senzatela	1501	–17	+10	=1494	50%	7
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 118:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Gallen	1506	+23	+0	=1529	53%	7
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 118:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Freeland	1500	–1	+10	=1509	47%	8
8/10Monday, Aug. 108:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Ray	1504	–9	–3	=1492	45%	12
8/10Monday, Aug. 108:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Gray	1502	+19	+7	=1528	55%	8
8/9Sunday, Aug. 94:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Marquez	1504	+28	+0	=1532	62%	3
8/9Sunday, Aug. 94:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Sheffield	1438	–2	+10	=1446	38%	5
8/8Saturday, Aug. 89:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Castellani	1502	–17	+0	=1485	59%	5
8/8Saturday, Aug. 89:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Margevicius	1440	–27	+10	=1423	41%	0
8/7Friday, Aug. 79:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Senzatela	1500	–19	–3	=1478	55%	8
8/7Friday, Aug. 79:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Kikuchi	1442	–10	+10	=1442	45%	4
8/6Thursday, Aug. 63:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Anderson	1455	+1	+0	=1456	43%	4
8/6Thursday, Aug. 63:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Freeland	1499	–3	+10	=1506	57%	6
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 58:40 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Webb	1454	–5	+0	=1449	39%	4
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 58:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Gray	1500	+20	+10	=1530	61%	3
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 48:40 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Gausman	1455	–8	+0	=1447	38%	2
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 48:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Marquez	1499	+26	+10	=1535	62%	5
8/3Monday, Aug. 38:40 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Cueto	1456	+2	–3	=1455	45%	6
8/3Monday, Aug. 38:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Gonzalez	1499	–17	+10	=1492	55%	7
8/2Sunday, Aug. 23:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Davies	1508	+0	+0	=1508	54%	6
8/2Sunday, Aug. 23:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Senzatela	1497	–24	+10	=1483	46%	9
8/1Saturday, Aug. 18:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Lucchesi	1510	–7	+0	=1503	51%	1
8/1Saturday, Aug. 18:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Freeland	1495	–7	+10	=1498	49%	6
7/31Friday, July 318:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Richards	1509	–1	–3	=1505	47%	8
7/31Friday, July 318:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Gray	1496	+22	+9	=1527	53%	7
7/29Wednesday, July 293:30 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Marquez	1494	+27	+0	=1521	45%	5
7/29Wednesday, July 293:30 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Montas	1526	+18	+10	=1554	55%	1
7/28Tuesday, July 289:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Senzatela	1491	–22	–2	=1467	41%	8
7/28Tuesday, July 289:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Mengden	1529	–8	+10	=1531	59%	3
7/26Sunday, July 262:35 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Freeland	1489	–7	+0	=1482	47%	5
7/26Sunday, July 262:35 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Kluber	1484	+11	+10	=1505	53%	2
7/25Saturday, July 254:05 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Gray	1488	+22	+0	=1510	50%	3
7/25Saturday, July 254:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Minor	1485	+17	+10	=1512	50%	2
7/24Friday, July 248:05 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Marquez	1489	+25	–3	=1511	47%	0
7/24Friday, July 248:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Lynn	1484	+36	+10	=1530	53%	1

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

NL West standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Comments

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

NL West standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Related Stories

Comments