Updated Aug. 8, 2020 at 1:27 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Rockies have a 72% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1502, up 7 points from last week.

NL West standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
DodgersDodgers10-40.599%82%
RockiesRockies10-372%11%
PadresPadres8-62.564%6%
DbacksDiamondbacks5-95.528%1%
GiantsGiants6-95.08%<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/8Saturday, Aug. 89:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Castellani, Ryan
Castellani
150217+0=148559%
SEASEAMariners
Margevicius, Nick
Margevicius
144027+10=142341%
8/9Sunday, Aug. 94:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1502+29+0=153162%
SEASEAMariners
Sheffield, Justus
Sheffield
14402+10=144838%
8/10Monday, Aug. 108:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Ray, Robbie
Ray
1504113=149045%
COLCOLRockies
Gray, Jon
Gray
1502+20+7=152955%
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 118:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1504+20+0=152452%
COLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
15022+10=151048%
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 123:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
150410+0=149450%
COLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
150218+10=149450%
8/14Friday, Aug. 148:40 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Allard, Kolby
Allard
1476161=145938%
COLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1502+29+12=154362%
8/15Saturday, Aug. 158:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Lynn, Lance
Lynn
1476+43+0=151951%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+10=151249%
8/16Sunday, Aug. 163:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Gibson, Kyle
Gibson
147617+0=145940%
COLCOLRockies
Gray, Jon
Gray
1502+20+10=153260%
8/17Monday, Aug. 179:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
150223=149739%
HOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+10=157761%
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 183:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
150218+0=148435%
HOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1567+15+10=159265%
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 198:40 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+03=156458%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+7=150942%
8/20Thursday, Aug. 203:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+0=156758%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+10=151242%
8/21Friday, Aug. 219:40 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+03=149936%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+7=159964%
8/22Saturday, Aug. 229:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+0=150236%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+10=160264%
8/23Sunday, Aug. 2310:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+0=150236%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+10=160264%
8/24Monday, Aug. 249:30 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+02=150048%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+7=151152%
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 259:40 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+0=150248%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+10=151452%
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 269:40 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+0=150248%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+10=151452%
8/27Thursday, Aug. 276:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+0=150248%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+10=151452%
8/28Friday, Aug. 288:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+03=150449%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+7=150951%
8/29Saturday, Aug. 298:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+0=150749%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+10=151251%
8/30Sunday, Aug. 303:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+0=150749%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+10=151251%
8/31Monday, Aug. 319:30 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+0=150749%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+10=151251%
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 18:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+11=145342%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+10=151258%
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 23:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+0=145442%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+10=151258%
9/4Friday, Sept. 49:40 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+01=150136%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+10=160264%
9/5Saturday, Sept. 59:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+0=150236%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+10=160264%
9/6Sunday, Sept. 610:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+0=150236%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+10=160264%
9/7Monday, Sept. 79:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+01=150148%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+8=151552%
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 89:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+0=150248%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+10=151752%
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 98:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+0=150248%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+10=151752%
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:40 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1499+13=149748%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+9=151152%
9/12Saturday, Sept. 128:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1499+1+0=150048%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+10=151252%
9/13Sunday, Sept. 133:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1499+1+0=150048%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+10=151252%
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 158:40 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+11=153153%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+12=151447%
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 163:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+0=153253%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+10=151247%
9/17Thursday, Sept. 178:40 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+13=158961%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+10=151239%
9/18Friday, Sept. 188:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+0=159261%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+10=151239%
9/19Saturday, Sept. 198:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+0=159261%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+10=151239%
9/20Sunday, Sept. 203:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+0=159261%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+10=151239%
9/21Monday, Sept. 219:45 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+03=149955%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+9=146345%
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 229:45 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+0=150256%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+10=146444%
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 239:45 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+0=150256%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+10=146444%
9/24Thursday, Sept. 243:45 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+0=150256%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+10=146444%
9/25Friday, Sept. 259:40 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+03=149948%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+12=151652%
9/26Saturday, Sept. 268:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+0=150248%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+10=151452%
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+0=150248%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+10=151452%

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/7Friday, Aug. 79:40 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
1500193=147855%8
SEASEAMariners
Kikuchi, Yusei
Kikuchi
144210+10=144245%4
8/6Thursday, Aug. 63:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1455+1+0=145643%4
COLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
14993+10=150657%6
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 58:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Webb, Logan
Webb
14545+0=144939%4
COLCOLRockies
Gray, Jon
Gray
1500+20+10=153061%3
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 48:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
14558+0=144738%2
COLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1499+26+10=153562%5
8/3Monday, Aug. 38:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
1456+23=145545%6
COLCOLRockies
Gonzalez, Chi Chi
Gonzalez
149917+10=149255%7
8/2Sunday, Aug. 23:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Davies, Zach
Davies
1508+0+0=150854%6
COLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
149724+10=148346%9
8/1Saturday, Aug. 18:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
15107+0=150351%1
COLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
14957+10=149849%6
7/31Friday, July 318:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Richards, Garrett
Richards
150913=150547%8
COLCOLRockies
Gray, Jon
Gray
1496+22+9=152753%7
7/29Wednesday, July 293:30 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1494+27+0=152145%5
OAKOAKAthletics
Montas, Frankie
Montas
1526+18+10=155455%1
7/28Tuesday, July 289:40 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
1491222=146741%8
OAKOAKAthletics
Mengden, Daniel
Mengden
15298+10=153159%3
7/26Sunday, July 262:35 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
14897+0=148247%5
TEXTEXRangers
Kluber, Corey
Kluber
1484+11+10=150553%2
7/25Saturday, July 254:05 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Gray, Jon
Gray
1488+22+0=151050%3
TEXTEXRangers
Minor, Mike
Minor
1485+17+10=151250%2
7/24Friday, July 248:05 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1489+253=151147%0
TEXTEXRangers
Lynn, Lance
Lynn
1484+36+10=153053%1

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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