Updated Aug. 8, 2020 at 1:27 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Padres have a 64% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1507, down 3 points from last week.

NL West standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
DodgersDodgers10-40.599%82%
RockiesRockies10-372%11%
PadresPadres8-62.564%6%
DbacksDiamondbacks5-95.528%1%
GiantsGiants6-95.08%<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/8Saturday, Aug. 89:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Kelly, Merrill
Kelly
1504+1+0=150547%
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1507+10+10=152753%
8/9Sunday, Aug. 94:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
1504+4+0=150848%
SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1507+3+10=152052%
8/10Monday, Aug. 109:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Richards, Garrett
Richards
150731=150338%
LADLADDodgers
May, Dustin
May
159110+10=159162%
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 119:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+0=150737%
LADLADDodgers
Stripling, Ross
Stripling
15914+10=159763%
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 129:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Davies, Zach
Davies
1507+3+0=151038%
LADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
15919+10=159262%
8/13Thursday, Aug. 139:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1507+10+0=151736%
LADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1591+16+10=161764%
8/14Friday, Aug. 149:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1507+32=150849%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Kelly, Merrill
Kelly
1504+1+9=151451%
8/15Saturday, Aug. 158:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Richards, Garrett
Richards
15073+0=150448%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
1504+4+10=151852%
8/16Sunday, Aug. 164:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+0=150751%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Ray, Robbie
Ray
150411+10=150349%
8/17Monday, Aug. 179:05 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Davies, Zach
Davies
1507+33=150752%
TEXTEXRangers
Minor, Mike
Minor
1476+10+7=149348%
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 184:05 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1507+10+0=151757%
TEXTEXRangers
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
147616+10=147043%
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 199:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+03=147344%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+7=151456%
8/20Thursday, Aug. 208:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+0=147644%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+10=151756%
8/21Friday, Aug. 219:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+03=156457%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+10=151743%
8/22Saturday, Aug. 229:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+0=156757%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+10=151743%
8/23Sunday, Aug. 234 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+0=156757%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+10=151743%
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 259:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+21=144139%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+12=151961%
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 269:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+0=144239%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+10=151761%
8/27Thursday, Aug. 274:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+0=144239%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+10=151761%
8/28Friday, Aug. 288:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+03=150449%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+7=150951%
8/29Saturday, Aug. 298:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+0=150749%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+10=151251%
8/30Sunday, Aug. 303:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+0=150749%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+10=151251%
8/31Monday, Aug. 319:30 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+0=150749%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+10=151251%
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 29:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+01=150649%
LAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1499+1+12=151251%
9/3Thursday, Sept. 37:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+0=150750%
LAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1499+1+10=151050%
9/4Friday, Sept. 49:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+02=150545%
OAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+7=153955%
9/5Saturday, Sept. 54:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+0=150745%
OAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+10=154255%
9/6Sunday, Sept. 64:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+0=150745%
OAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+10=154255%
9/7Monday, Sept. 79:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+01=150148%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+8=151552%
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 89:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+0=150248%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+10=151752%
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 98:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+0=150248%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+10=151752%
9/10Thursday, Sept. 109:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+12=145241%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+10=151759%
9/11Friday, Sept. 119:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+0=145441%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+10=151759%
9/12Saturday, Sept. 129:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+0=145441%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+10=151759%
9/13Sunday, Sept. 134:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+0=145441%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+10=151759%
9/14Monday, Sept. 149:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+1=159361%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+10=151739%
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 159:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+0=159261%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+10=151739%
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 164 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+0=159261%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+10=151739%
9/18Friday, Sept. 189:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+01=150658%
SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+12=145442%
9/19Saturday, Sept. 199:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+0=150758%
SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+10=145242%
9/20Sunday, Sept. 204:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+0=150758%
SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+10=145242%
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 229:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1499+1+1=150148%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+9=151652%
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 234:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1499+1+0=150047%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+10=151753%
9/25Friday, Sept. 259:45 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+0=150756%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+10=146444%
9/26Saturday, Sept. 269:15 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+0=150756%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+10=146444%
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:05 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+0=150756%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+10=146444%

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/7Friday, Aug. 79:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
150682=149647%0
SDSDPadres
Davies, Zach
Davies
1506+0+12=151853%3
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 59:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Stripling, Ross
Stripling
15893+0=158660%7
SDSDPadres
Richards, Garrett
Richards
15071+10=151640%6
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 49:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
May, Dustin
May
158814+0=157458%5
SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1508+2+10=152042%2
8/3Monday, Aug. 39:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1589+252=161263%4
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1506+11+7=152437%5
8/2Sunday, Aug. 23:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Davies, Zach
Davies
1508+0+0=150854%6
COLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
149724+10=148346%9
8/1Saturday, Aug. 18:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
15107+0=150351%1
COLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
14957+10=149849%6
7/31Friday, July 318:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Richards, Garrett
Richards
150913=150547%8
COLCOLRockies
Gray, Jon
Gray
1496+22+9=152753%7
7/30Thursday, July 309:45 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1507+1+0=150858%12
SFSFGiants
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
145410+10=145442%7
7/29Wednesday, July 299:45 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1509+11+0=152058%6
SFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
1453+4+10=146742%7
7/28Tuesday, July 289:45 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Davies, Zach
Davies
150712=150453%5
SFSFGiants
Samardzija, Jeff
Samardzija
1454+17+10=148147%3
7/27Monday, July 274 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
1509+0+0=150950%2
SDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
15056+10=150950%6
7/26Sunday, July 264:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1508+15+0=152351%4
SDSDPadres
Richards, Garrett
Richards
15063+10=151349%3
7/25Saturday, July 259:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Ray, Robbie
Ray
15105+0=150549%1
SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1504+0+10=151451%5
7/24Friday, July 249:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
1512+62=151649%2
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1502+10+10=152251%7

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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