2020 MLB Predictions

The Padres are done for the season.

NL West standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Dodgers Dodgers43-17	—	✓	✓
Padres Padres37-23	6.0	✓	—
Giants Giants29-31	14.0	—	—
Rockies Rockies26-34	17.0	—	—
Dbacks Diamondbacks25-35	18.0	—	—

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
10/8Thursday, Oct. 89:08 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	May	1609	–11	+0	=1598	66%	12
10/8Thursday, Oct. 89:08 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Morejon	1531	–18	+0	=1513	34%	3
10/7Wednesday, Oct. 79:08 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Davies	1532	+3	+0	=1535	32%	5
10/7Wednesday, Oct. 79:08 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Kershaw	1608	+26	+0	=1634	68%	6
10/6Tuesday, Oct. 69:38 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Clevinger	1534	+39	+7	=1580	41%	1
10/6Tuesday, Oct. 69:38 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Buehler	1606	+16	+7	=1629	59%	5
10/2Friday, Oct. 27 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Flaherty	1513	+29	+0	=1542	54%	0
10/2Friday, Oct. 27 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Stammen	1531	–18	+10	=1523	46%	4
10/1Thursday, Oct. 17 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1515	+8	+0	=1523	46%	9
10/1Thursday, Oct. 17 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Davies	1529	+7	+10	=1546	54%	11
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 305 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Kim	1512	+3	+1	=1516	46%	7
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 305 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Paddack	1532	–9	+13	=1536	54%	4
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Morejon	1531	–22	+0	=1509	53%	5
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:05 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Smyly	1476	+3	+10	=1489	47%	4
9/26Saturday, Sept. 269:15 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Davies	1529	+5	–2	=1532	57%	6
9/26Saturday, Sept. 269:15 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Cueto	1478	–6	+8	=1480	43%	2
9/25Friday, Sept. 2510:15 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Samardzija	1478	+1	–2	=1477	39%	5
9/25Friday, Sept. 2510:15 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Lamet	1528	+21	+8	=1557	61%	6
9/25Friday, Sept. 257:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Paddack	1529	–3	+0	=1526	55%	4
9/25Friday, Sept. 257:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Anderson	1477	+2	+10	=1489	45%	5
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 234:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Barria	1493	+0	+0	=1493	38%	5
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 234:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Clevinger	1532	+36	+10	=1578	62%	2
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 229:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Canning	1492	+8	–1	=1499	43%	4
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 229:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Davies	1533	+6	+9	=1548	57%	2
9/20Sunday, Sept. 204:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Lamet	1532	+16	+0	=1548	62%	7
9/20Sunday, Sept. 204:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Dunn	1449	+4	+10	=1463	38%	4
9/19Saturday, Sept. 199:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Patino	1534	–22	+0	=1512	56%	1
9/19Saturday, Sept. 199:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Sheffield	1447	+12	+10	=1469	44%	4
9/18Friday, Sept. 189:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Paddack	1533	–6	–1	=1526	61%	6
9/18Friday, Sept. 189:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Kikuchi	1449	–9	+10	=1450	39%	1
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 164 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Graterol	1596	–19	+0	=1577	58%	7
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 164 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Morejon	1534	–22	+10	=1522	42%	5
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 159:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Gonsolin	1595	+10	+0	=1605	57%	3
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 159:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Davies	1535	+8	+10	=1553	43%	1
9/14Monday, Sept. 149:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Kershaw	1597	+24	–1	=1620	59%	2
9/14Monday, Sept. 149:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Lamet	1532	+12	+10	=1554	41%	7
9/13Sunday, Sept. 137:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Webb	1473	–3	+0	=1470	41%	1
9/13Sunday, Sept. 137:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Richards	1531	–7	+10	=1534	59%	3
9/13Sunday, Sept. 134:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Cueto	1474	+3	+5	=1482	37%	0
9/13Sunday, Sept. 134:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Clevinger	1529	+35	+15	=1579	63%	6
9/10Thursday, Sept. 109:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Cahill	1476	–5	–2	=1469	41%	1
9/10Thursday, Sept. 109:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Paddack	1528	–4	+10	=1534	59%	6
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 98:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Senzatela	1481	–4	+0	=1477	40%	3
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 98:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Davies	1526	+13	+10	=1549	60%	5
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 89:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Gonzalez	1483	–16	+0	=1467	35%	5
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 89:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Clevinger	1524	+38	+10	=1572	65%	14
9/7Monday, Sept. 79:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Freeland	1484	+0	–1	=1483	42%	0
9/7Monday, Sept. 79:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Lamet	1524	+8	+8	=1540	58%	1
9/6Sunday, Sept. 64:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Richards	1522	–8	+0	=1514	46%	5
9/6Sunday, Sept. 64:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Fiers	1535	–1	+10	=1544	54%	3
9/5Saturday, Sept. 54:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Paddack	1524	–2	+0	=1522	46%	4
9/5Saturday, Sept. 54:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Manaea	1533	+4	+10	=1547	54%	8
9/4Friday, Sept. 49:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Davies	1521	+11	–2	=1530	48%	7
9/4Friday, Sept. 49:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Luzardo	1536	–4	+13	=1545	52%	0
9/3Thursday, Sept. 37:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Clevinger	1523	+41	+0	=1564	58%	0
9/3Thursday, Sept. 37:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Heaney	1486	+13	+10	=1509	42%	2
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 29:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Lamet	1520	+8	–1	=1527	55%	11
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 29:40 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Teheran	1488	–7	+12	=1493	45%	4
8/31Monday, Aug. 319:30 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Richards	1518	–11	+0	=1507	49%	6
8/31Monday, Aug. 319:30 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Marquez	1488	+15	+10	=1513	51%	0
8/30Sunday, Aug. 303:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Paddack	1515	–4	+0	=1511	52%	13
8/30Sunday, Aug. 303:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Castellani	1491	–7	+10	=1494	48%	2
8/29Saturday, Aug. 298:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Baez	1516	–12	+0	=1504	53%	3
8/29Saturday, Aug. 298:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Senzatela	1490	–14	+10	=1486	47%	4
8/28Friday, Aug. 288:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Davies	1514	+13	–3	=1524	53%	10
8/28Friday, Aug. 288:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Freeland	1492	+3	+9	=1504	47%	4
8/27Thursday, Aug. 276:30 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Kikuchi	1446	–14	+0	=1432	37%	8
8/27Thursday, Aug. 276:30 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Richards	1517	–2	+10	=1525	63%	3
8/27Thursday, Aug. 273:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Newsome	1447	+1	+2	=1450	38%	7
8/27Thursday, Aug. 273:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Lamet	1515	+11	+12	=1538	62%	10
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 259:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gonzales	1444	+27	–1	=1470	42%	8
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 259:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Paddack	1518	–2	+12	=1528	58%	3
8/23Sunday, Aug. 234 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Greinke	1567	+22	+0	=1589	61%	3
8/23Sunday, Aug. 234 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Morejon	1516	–16	+10	=1510	39%	5
8/22Saturday, Aug. 229:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Bielak	1571	–25	+0	=1546	52%	2
8/22Saturday, Aug. 229:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Davies	1512	+6	+10	=1528	48%	13
8/21Friday, Aug. 219:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	McCullers Jr.	1572	–11	–3	=1558	56%	3
8/21Friday, Aug. 219:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Richards	1511	–2	+10	=1519	44%	4
8/20Thursday, Aug. 208:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Gibson	1474	–16	+0	=1458	40%	7
8/20Thursday, Aug. 208:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Lamet	1510	+10	+10	=1530	60%	8
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 199:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Lynn	1476	+49	–3	=1522	51%	3
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 199:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Paddack	1508	–2	+7	=1513	49%	6
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 184:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Morejon	1507	–22	+0	=1485	48%	6
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 184:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Minor	1477	+12	+10	=1499	52%	4
8/17Monday, Aug. 179:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Davies	1504	+6	–3	=1507	56%	14
8/17Monday, Aug. 179:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Lyles	1480	–21	+7	=1466	44%	4
8/16Sunday, Aug. 164:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Richards	1505	–1	+0	=1504	50%	4
8/16Sunday, Aug. 164:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Ray	1510	–14	+10	=1506	50%	5
8/15Saturday, Aug. 158:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Quantrill	1506	–27	+0	=1479	46%	6
8/15Saturday, Aug. 158:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Young	1509	–14	+10	=1505	54%	7
8/14Friday, Aug. 149:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Lamet	1508	+8	–2	=1514	49%	1
8/14Friday, Aug. 149:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Kelly	1507	+4	+9	=1520	51%	5
8/13Thursday, Aug. 139:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Paddack	1511	+6	+0	=1517	40%	2
8/13Thursday, Aug. 139:40 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Urias	1588	–8	+10	=1590	60%	11
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 129:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Davies	1512	+2	+0	=1514	39%	0
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 129:40 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Gonsolin	1586	–5	+10	=1591	61%	6
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 119:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Richards	1510	–3	+0	=1507	38%	6
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 119:40 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Stripling	1589	–4	+10	=1595	62%	2
8/10Monday, Aug. 109:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Perdomo	1508	–39	–1	=1468	33%	2
8/10Monday, Aug. 109:40 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	May	1590	–9	+10	=1591	67%	1
8/9Sunday, Aug. 94:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Bumgarner	1506	+4	+0	=1510	49%	5
8/9Sunday, Aug. 94:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Lamet	1506	+3	+10	=1519	51%	9
8/8Saturday, Aug. 89:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Kelly	1504	+1	+0	=1505	47%	3
8/8Saturday, Aug. 89:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Paddack	1507	+10	+10	=1527	53%	2
8/7Friday, Aug. 79:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Weaver	1506	–8	–2	=1496	47%	0
8/7Friday, Aug. 79:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Davies	1506	+0	+12	=1518	53%	3
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 59:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Stripling	1589	–3	+0	=1586	60%	7
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 59:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Richards	1507	–1	+10	=1516	40%	6
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 49:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	May	1588	–14	+0	=1574	58%	5
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 49:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Lamet	1508	+2	+10	=1520	42%	2
8/3Monday, Aug. 39:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Buehler	1589	+25	–2	=1612	63%	4
8/3Monday, Aug. 39:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Paddack	1506	+11	+7	=1524	37%	5
8/2Sunday, Aug. 23:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Davies	1508	+0	+0	=1508	54%	6
8/2Sunday, Aug. 23:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Senzatela	1497	–24	+10	=1483	46%	9
8/1Saturday, Aug. 18:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Lucchesi	1510	–7	+0	=1503	51%	1
8/1Saturday, Aug. 18:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Freeland	1495	–7	+10	=1498	49%	6
7/31Friday, July 318:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Richards	1509	–1	–3	=1505	47%	8
7/31Friday, July 318:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Gray	1496	+22	+9	=1527	53%	7
7/30Thursday, July 309:45 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Lamet	1507	+1	+0	=1508	58%	12
7/30Thursday, July 309:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Gausman	1454	–10	+10	=1454	42%	7
7/29Wednesday, July 299:45 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Paddack	1509	+11	+0	=1520	58%	6
7/29Wednesday, July 299:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Cueto	1453	+4	+10	=1467	42%	7
7/28Tuesday, July 289:45 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Davies	1507	–1	–2	=1504	53%	5
7/28Tuesday, July 289:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Samardzija	1454	+17	+10	=1481	47%	3
7/27Monday, July 274 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Weaver	1509	+0	+0	=1509	50%	2
7/27Monday, July 274 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Lucchesi	1505	–6	+10	=1509	50%	6
7/26Sunday, July 264:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Gallen	1508	+15	+0	=1523	51%	4
7/26Sunday, July 264:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Richards	1506	–3	+10	=1513	49%	3
7/25Saturday, July 259:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Ray	1510	–5	+0	=1505	49%	1
7/25Saturday, July 259:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Lamet	1504	+0	+10	=1514	51%	5
7/24Friday, July 249:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Bumgarner	1512	+6	–2	=1516	49%	2
7/24Friday, July 249:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Paddack	1502	+10	+10	=1522	51%	7

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

NL West standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Comments

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

NL West standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Related Stories

Comments