Updated Oct. 26, 2020 at 12:57 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Padres are done for the season.

NL West standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
DodgersDodgers43-17
PadresPadres37-236.0
GiantsGiants29-3114.0
RockiesRockies26-3417.0
DbacksDiamondbacks25-3518.0

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
10/8Thursday, Oct. 89:08 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
May, Dustin
May
160911+0=159866%12
SDSDPadres
Morejon, Adrian
Morejon
153118+0=151334%3
10/7Wednesday, Oct. 79:08 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Davies, Zach
Davies
1532+3+0=153532%5
LADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1608+26+0=163468%6
10/6Tuesday, Oct. 69:38 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Clevinger, Mike
Clevinger
1534+39+7=158041%1
LADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1606+16+7=162959%5
10/2Friday, Oct. 27 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1513+29+0=154254%0
SDSDPadres
Stammen, Craig
Stammen
153118+10=152346%4
10/1Thursday, Oct. 17 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
1515+8+0=152346%9
SDSDPadres
Davies, Zach
Davies
1529+7+10=154654%11
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 305 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Kim, Kwang-Hyun
Kim
1512+3+1=151646%7
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
15329+13=153654%4
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:05 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Morejon, Adrian
Morejon
153122+0=150953%5
SFSFGiants
Smyly, Drew
Smyly
1476+3+10=148947%4
9/26Saturday, Sept. 269:15 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Davies, Zach
Davies
1529+52=153257%6
SFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
14786+8=148043%2
9/25Friday, Sept. 2510:15 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Samardzija, Jeff
Samardzija
1478+12=147739%5
SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1528+21+8=155761%6
9/25Friday, Sept. 257:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
15293+0=152655%4
SFSFGiants
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1477+2+10=148945%5
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 234:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Barria, Jaime
Barria
1493+0+0=149338%5
SDSDPadres
Clevinger, Mike
Clevinger
1532+36+10=157862%2
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 229:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Canning, Griffin
Canning
1492+81=149943%4
SDSDPadres
Davies, Zach
Davies
1533+6+9=154857%2
9/20Sunday, Sept. 204:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1532+16+0=154862%7
SEASEAMariners
Dunn, Justin
Dunn
1449+4+10=146338%4
9/19Saturday, Sept. 199:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Patino, Luis
Patino
153422+0=151256%1
SEASEAMariners
Sheffield, Justus
Sheffield
1447+12+10=146944%4
9/18Friday, Sept. 189:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
153361=152661%6
SEASEAMariners
Kikuchi, Yusei
Kikuchi
14499+10=145039%1
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 164 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Graterol, Brusdar
Graterol
159619+0=157758%7
SDSDPadres
Morejon, Adrian
Morejon
153422+10=152242%5
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 159:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Gonsolin, Tony
Gonsolin
1595+10+0=160557%3
SDSDPadres
Davies, Zach
Davies
1535+8+10=155343%1
9/14Monday, Sept. 149:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1597+241=162059%2
SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1532+12+10=155441%7
9/13Sunday, Sept. 137:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Webb, Logan
Webb
14733+0=147041%1
SDSDPadres
Richards, Garrett
Richards
15317+10=153459%3
9/13Sunday, Sept. 134:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
1474+3+5=148237%0
SDSDPadres
Clevinger, Mike
Clevinger
1529+35+15=157963%6
9/10Thursday, Sept. 109:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Cahill, Trevor
Cahill
147652=146941%1
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
15284+10=153459%6
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 98:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
14814+0=147740%3
SDSDPadres
Davies, Zach
Davies
1526+13+10=154960%5
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 89:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Gonzalez, Chi Chi
Gonzalez
148316+0=146735%5
SDSDPadres
Clevinger, Mike
Clevinger
1524+38+10=157265%14
9/7Monday, Sept. 79:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
1484+01=148342%0
SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1524+8+8=154058%1
9/6Sunday, Sept. 64:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Richards, Garrett
Richards
15228+0=151446%5
OAKOAKAthletics
Fiers, Mike
Fiers
15351+10=154454%3
9/5Saturday, Sept. 54:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
15242+0=152246%4
OAKOAKAthletics
Manaea, Sean
Manaea
1533+4+10=154754%8
9/4Friday, Sept. 49:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Davies, Zach
Davies
1521+112=153048%7
OAKOAKAthletics
Luzardo, Jesus
Luzardo
15364+13=154552%0
9/3Thursday, Sept. 37:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Clevinger, Mike
Clevinger
1523+41+0=156458%0
LAALAAAngels
Heaney, Andrew
Heaney
1486+13+10=150942%2
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 29:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1520+81=152755%11
LAALAAAngels
Teheran, Julio
Teheran
14887+12=149345%4
8/31Monday, Aug. 319:30 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Richards, Garrett
Richards
151811+0=150749%6
COLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1488+15+10=151351%0
8/30Sunday, Aug. 303:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
15154+0=151152%13
COLCOLRockies
Castellani, Ryan
Castellani
14917+10=149448%2
8/29Saturday, Aug. 298:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Baez, Michel
Baez
151612+0=150453%3
COLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
149014+10=148647%4
8/28Friday, Aug. 288:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Davies, Zach
Davies
1514+133=152453%10
COLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
1492+3+9=150447%4
8/27Thursday, Aug. 276:30 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Kikuchi, Yusei
Kikuchi
144614+0=143237%8
SDSDPadres
Richards, Garrett
Richards
15172+10=152563%3
8/27Thursday, Aug. 273:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Newsome, Ljay
Newsome
1447+1+2=145038%7
SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1515+11+12=153862%10
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 259:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Gonzales, Marco
Gonzales
1444+271=147042%8
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
15182+12=152858%3
8/23Sunday, Aug. 234 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1567+22+0=158961%3
SDSDPadres
Morejon, Adrian
Morejon
151616+10=151039%5
8/22Saturday, Aug. 229:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Bielak, Brandon
Bielak
157125+0=154652%2
SDSDPadres
Davies, Zach
Davies
1512+6+10=152848%13
8/21Friday, Aug. 219:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
1572113=155856%3
SDSDPadres
Richards, Garrett
Richards
15112+10=151944%4
8/20Thursday, Aug. 208:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Gibson, Kyle
Gibson
147416+0=145840%7
SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1510+10+10=153060%8
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 199:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Lynn, Lance
Lynn
1476+493=152251%3
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
15082+7=151349%6
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 184:05 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Morejon, Adrian
Morejon
150722+0=148548%6
TEXTEXRangers
Minor, Mike
Minor
1477+12+10=149952%4
8/17Monday, Aug. 179:05 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Davies, Zach
Davies
1504+63=150756%14
TEXTEXRangers
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
148021+7=146644%4
8/16Sunday, Aug. 164:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Richards, Garrett
Richards
15051+0=150450%4
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Ray, Robbie
Ray
151014+10=150650%5
8/15Saturday, Aug. 158:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Quantrill, Cal
Quantrill
150627+0=147946%6
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Young, Alex
Young
150914+10=150554%7
8/14Friday, Aug. 149:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1508+82=151449%1
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Kelly, Merrill
Kelly
1507+4+9=152051%5
8/13Thursday, Aug. 139:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1511+6+0=151740%2
LADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
15888+10=159060%11
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 129:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Davies, Zach
Davies
1512+2+0=151439%0
LADLADDodgers
Gonsolin, Tony
Gonsolin
15865+10=159161%6
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 119:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Richards, Garrett
Richards
15103+0=150738%6
LADLADDodgers
Stripling, Ross
Stripling
15894+10=159562%2
8/10Monday, Aug. 109:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Perdomo, Luis
Perdomo
1508391=146833%2
LADLADDodgers
May, Dustin
May
15909+10=159167%1
8/9Sunday, Aug. 94:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
1506+4+0=151049%5
SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1506+3+10=151951%9
8/8Saturday, Aug. 89:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Kelly, Merrill
Kelly
1504+1+0=150547%3
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1507+10+10=152753%2
8/7Friday, Aug. 79:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
150682=149647%0
SDSDPadres
Davies, Zach
Davies
1506+0+12=151853%3
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 59:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Stripling, Ross
Stripling
15893+0=158660%7
SDSDPadres
Richards, Garrett
Richards
15071+10=151640%6
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 49:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
May, Dustin
May
158814+0=157458%5
SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1508+2+10=152042%2
8/3Monday, Aug. 39:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1589+252=161263%4
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1506+11+7=152437%5
8/2Sunday, Aug. 23:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Davies, Zach
Davies
1508+0+0=150854%6
COLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
149724+10=148346%9
8/1Saturday, Aug. 18:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
15107+0=150351%1
COLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
14957+10=149849%6
7/31Friday, July 318:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Richards, Garrett
Richards
150913=150547%8
COLCOLRockies
Gray, Jon
Gray
1496+22+9=152753%7
7/30Thursday, July 309:45 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1507+1+0=150858%12
SFSFGiants
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
145410+10=145442%7
7/29Wednesday, July 299:45 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1509+11+0=152058%6
SFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
1453+4+10=146742%7
7/28Tuesday, July 289:45 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Davies, Zach
Davies
150712=150453%5
SFSFGiants
Samardzija, Jeff
Samardzija
1454+17+10=148147%3
7/27Monday, July 274 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
1509+0+0=150950%2
SDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
15056+10=150950%6
7/26Sunday, July 264:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1508+15+0=152351%4
SDSDPadres
Richards, Garrett
Richards
15063+10=151349%3
7/25Saturday, July 259:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Ray, Robbie
Ray
15105+0=150549%1
SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1504+0+10=151451%5
7/24Friday, July 249:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
1512+62=151649%2
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1502+10+10=152251%7

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

Comments