Updated Oct. 26, 2020 at 12:57 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Athletics are done for the season.

AL West standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
AthleticsAthletics36-24
AstrosAstros29-317.0
MarinersMariners27-339.0
AngelsAngels26-3410.0
RangersRangers22-3814.0

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
10/8Thursday, Oct. 83:35 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Montas, Frankie
Montas
1530+4+0=153443%6
HOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1556+12+0=156857%11
10/7Wednesday, Oct. 73:35 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Luzardo, Jesus
Luzardo
15274+0=152342%9
HOUHOUAstros
Urquidy, Jose
Urquidy
1559+6+0=156558%7
10/6Tuesday, Oct. 64:37 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Valdez, Framber
Valdez
155612+0=154451%5
OAKOAKAthletics
Manaea, Sean
Manaea
1530+9+0=153949%2
10/5Monday, Oct. 54:07 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
15532+7=155850%10
OAKOAKAthletics
Bassitt, Chris
Bassitt
1533+19+7=155950%5
10/1Thursday, Oct. 13 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Dunning, Dane
Dunning
15157+0=150844%4
OAKOAKAthletics
Fiers, Mike
Fiers
15312+10=153956%6
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 303 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Keuchel, Dallas
Keuchel
1517+13+0=153045%3
OAKOAKAthletics
Bassitt, Chris
Bassitt
1529+16+10=155555%5
9/29Tuesday, Sept. 293 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Giolito, Lucas
Giolito
1515+372=155051%4
OAKOAKAthletics
Luzardo, Jesus
Luzardo
1532+0+12=154449%1
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Gonzales, Marco
Gonzales
1456+313=148443%2
OAKOAKAthletics
Montas, Frankie
Montas
15302+7=153557%6
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:35 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Blackburn, Paul
Blackburn
1534243=150757%3
SEASEAMariners
Dunn, Justin
Dunn
1452+2+7=146143%12
9/26Saturday, Sept. 264:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Sheffield, Justus
Sheffield
1450+11+0=146136%5
OAKOAKAthletics
Minor, Mike
Minor
1537+13+10=156064%1
9/25Friday, Sept. 259:40 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Kikuchi, Yusei
Kikuchi
1451151=143533%1
OAKOAKAthletics
Bassitt, Chris
Bassitt
1536+12+8=155667%3
9/24Thursday, Sept. 249:40 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Fiers, Mike
Fiers
15371+0=153637%1
LADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1599+16+10=162563%5
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 239:40 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Manaea, Sean
Manaea
1536+10+0=154645%6
LADLADDodgers
Kelly, Joe
Kelly
160128+10=158355%4
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 229:30 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Montas, Frankie
Montas
1537+3+0=154042%2
LADLADDodgers
May, Dustin
May
159911+9=159758%7
9/20Sunday, Sept. 204 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
14721+0=147136%14
OAKOAKAthletics
Minor, Mike
Minor
1543+16+10=156964%2
9/19Saturday, Sept. 194:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
1474+6+0=148041%0
OAKOAKAthletics
Luzardo, Jesus
Luzardo
15418+10=154359%6
9/18Friday, Sept. 189:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Webb, Logan
Webb
147523=147038%0
OAKOAKAthletics
Bassitt, Chris
Bassitt
1539+7+9=155562%6
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 163:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Fiers, Mike
Fiers
15384+0=153453%3
COLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1481+21+10=151247%1
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 158:40 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Manaea, Sean
Manaea
1539+103=154659%1
COLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
147910+12=148141%3
9/14Monday, Sept. 148:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Minor, Mike
Minor
1537+15+0=155263%9
SEASEAMariners
Yacabonis, Jimmy
Yacabonis
14542+10=146237%0
9/14Monday, Sept. 145:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Luzardo, Jesus
Luzardo
1538+04=153456%5
SEASEAMariners
Gonzales, Marco
Gonzales
1453+30+7=149044%6
9/13Sunday, Sept. 132:35 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Montas, Frankie
Montas
1540+7+0=154754%3
TEXTEXRangers
Lynn, Lance
Lynn
1460+50+10=152046%6
9/12Saturday, Sept. 127:45 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Bassitt, Chris
Bassitt
1538+8+0=154662%10
TEXTEXRangers
Allard, Kolby
Allard
146214+10=145838%1
9/12Saturday, Sept. 125:05 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Jefferies, Daulton
Jefferies
154015+0=152560%2
TEXTEXRangers
Goody, Nick
Goody
146014+10=145640%5
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:05 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Fiers, Mike
Fiers
153944=153161%10
TEXTEXRangers
Garcia, Luis
Garcia
146115+10=145639%6
9/10Thursday, Sept. 103:40 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Urquidy, Jose
Urquidy
15583+0=155551%1
OAKOAKAthletics
Manaea, Sean
Manaea
1537+4+10=155149%3
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 99:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Garcia, Luis
Garcia
155926+0=153349%2
OAKOAKAthletics
Luzardo, Jesus
Luzardo
15366+10=154051%3
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 89:20 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
De Jong, Chase
De Jong
1558394=151544%5
OAKOAKAthletics
Minor, Mike
Minor
1537+16+6=155956%4
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 86:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Montas, Frankie
Montas
1536+84=154043%4
HOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1559+22+6=158757%2
9/7Monday, Sept. 79 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Javier, Cristian
Javier
1562112=154950%0
OAKOAKAthletics
Bassitt, Chris
Bassitt
1533+4+10=154750%6
9/6Sunday, Sept. 64:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Richards, Garrett
Richards
15228+0=151446%5
OAKOAKAthletics
Fiers, Mike
Fiers
15351+10=154454%3
9/5Saturday, Sept. 54:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
15242+0=152246%4
OAKOAKAthletics
Manaea, Sean
Manaea
1533+4+10=154754%8
9/4Friday, Sept. 49:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Davies, Zach
Davies
1521+112=153048%7
OAKOAKAthletics
Luzardo, Jesus
Luzardo
15364+13=154552%0
8/29Saturday, Aug. 297:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Montas, Frankie
Montas
1537+13+0=155043%3
HOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1566+22+10=159857%6
8/29Saturday, Aug. 294:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Bassitt, Chris
Bassitt
1539+9+3=155147%2
HOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
156510+17=157253%4
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 268:05 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Fiers, Mike
Fiers
15386+0=153260%3
TEXTEXRangers
Allard, Kolby
Allard
146517+10=145840%1
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 258:05 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Manaea, Sean
Manaea
1536+2+0=153861%10
TEXTEXRangers
Gibson, Kyle
Gibson
146716+10=146139%3
8/24Monday, Aug. 248:05 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Luzardo, Jesus
Luzardo
153774=152650%2
TEXTEXRangers
Lynn, Lance
Lynn
1466+51+6=152350%3
8/23Sunday, Aug. 234:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Bundy, Dylan
Bundy
1487+20+0=150742%4
OAKOAKAthletics
Montas, Frankie
Montas
1536+16+10=156258%5
8/22Saturday, Aug. 224:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Canning, Griffin
Canning
1486+5+0=149141%4
OAKOAKAthletics
Bassitt, Chris
Bassitt
1537+10+10=155759%3
8/21Friday, Aug. 219:40 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Heaney, Andrew
Heaney
1487+101=149644%3
OAKOAKAthletics
Fiers, Mike
Fiers
15366+10=154056%5
8/20Thursday, Aug. 209:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Young, Alex
Young
151414+0=150044%1
OAKOAKAthletics
Manaea, Sean
Manaea
1534+1+10=154556%5
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 199:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Kelly, Merrill
Kelly
1516+63=151949%1
OAKOAKAthletics
Luzardo, Jesus
Luzardo
153315+7=152551%4
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 186:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Montas, Frankie
Montas
1537+28+0=156558%1
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
151213+10=150942%10
8/17Monday, Aug. 179:40 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Bassitt, Chris
Bassitt
1538+103=154550%3
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1511+24+10=154550%4
8/16Sunday, Aug. 164:05 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Fiers, Mike
Fiers
15358+0=152760%15
SFSFGiants
Webb, Logan
Webb
14522+10=146040%3
8/15Saturday, Aug. 157:07 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Manaea, Sean
Manaea
15342+0=153260%7
SFSFGiants
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
14522+10=146040%6
8/14Friday, Aug. 149:45 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Luzardo, Jesus
Luzardo
15336+0=152759%8
SFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
1453+1+8=146241%7
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 124:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Bassitt, Chris
Bassitt
1531+9+0=154054%8
LAALAAAngels
Canning, Griffin
Canning
1499+5+10=151446%4
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 119:40 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Fiers, Mike
Fiers
15344+0=153051%0
LAALAAAngels
Bundy, Dylan
Bundy
1497+14+10=152149%6
8/10Monday, Aug. 109:40 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Manaea, Sean
Manaea
1535+02=153355%9
LAALAAAngels
Teheran, Julio
Teheran
14964+7=149945%10
8/9Sunday, Aug. 94:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Javier, Cristian
Javier
156618+0=154852%2
OAKOAKAthletics
Luzardo, Jesus
Luzardo
153311+10=153248%7
8/8Saturday, Aug. 84:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Valdez, Framber
Valdez
156738+0=152946%1
OAKOAKAthletics
Montas, Frankie
Montas
1531+18+10=155954%3
8/7Friday, Aug. 79:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1568+143=157955%2
OAKOAKAthletics
Bassitt, Chris
Bassitt
1530+5+10=154545%3
8/6Thursday, Aug. 63:40 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Minor, Mike
Minor
1476+12+0=148843%4
OAKOAKAthletics
Fiers, Mike
Fiers
1529+0+10=153957%6
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 59:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Gibson, Kyle
Gibson
147718+0=145938%4
OAKOAKAthletics
Manaea, Sean
Manaea
1528+5+10=154362%6
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 49:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Lynn, Lance
Lynn
1479+43+1=152351%1
OAKOAKAthletics
Luzardo, Jesus
Luzardo
152616+7=151749%5
8/3Monday, Aug. 39:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Montas, Frankie
Montas
1524+16+0=154062%11
SEASEAMariners
Sheffield, Justus
Sheffield
14463+10=145338%1
8/2Sunday, Aug. 24:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Bassitt, Chris
Bassitt
1523+2+0=152561%3
SEASEAMariners
Graveman, Kendall
Graveman
14479+10=144839%2
8/1Saturday, Aug. 19:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Fiers, Mike
Fiers
1522+0+0=152261%3
SEASEAMariners
Kikuchi, Yusei
Kikuchi
144816+10=144239%2
7/31Friday, July 319:40 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Manaea, Sean
Manaea
1524+101=153360%3
SEASEAMariners
Walker, Taijuan
Walker
1446+12+7=146540%5
7/29Wednesday, July 293:30 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1494+27+0=152145%5
OAKOAKAthletics
Montas, Frankie
Montas
1526+18+10=155455%1
7/28Tuesday, July 289:40 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
1491222=146741%8
OAKOAKAthletics
Mengden, Daniel
Mengden
15298+10=153159%3
7/27Monday, July 273:40 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Canning, Griffin
Canning
1502+6+0=150846%0
OAKOAKAthletics
Bassitt, Chris
Bassitt
1527+0+10=153754%3
7/26Sunday, July 264:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Ohtani, Shohei
Ohtani
1503+6+0=150946%4
OAKOAKAthletics
Fiers, Mike
Fiers
1526+3+10=153954%6
7/25Saturday, July 254:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Bundy, Dylan
Bundy
1501+0+0=150143%4
OAKOAKAthletics
Manaea, Sean
Manaea
1528+11+10=154957%1
7/24Friday, July 2410 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Heaney, Andrew
Heaney
1503+32=150443%3
OAKOAKAthletics
Montas, Frankie
Montas
1527+17+10=155457%7

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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