Updated Aug. 8, 2020 at 1:27 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Athletics have a 95% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1531, up 9 points from last week.

AL West standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
AthleticsAthletics10-495%53%
AstrosAstros6-73.591%42%
AngelsAngels5-95.034%3%
RangersRangers4-85.022%2%
MarinersMariners5-105.57%<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/8Saturday, Aug. 84:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Valdez, Framber
Valdez
156738+0=152946%
OAKOAKAthletics
Montas, Frankie
Montas
1531+18+10=155954%
8/9Sunday, Aug. 94:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Javier, Cristian
Javier
156718+0=154953%
OAKOAKAthletics
Luzardo, Jesus
Luzardo
153110+10=153147%
8/10Monday, Aug. 109:40 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Manaea, Sean
Manaea
1531+12=153054%
LAALAAAngels
Teheran, Julio
Teheran
14994+7=150246%
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 119:40 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Fiers, Mike
Fiers
15313+0=152851%
LAALAAAngels
Bundy, Dylan
Bundy
1499+13+10=152249%
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 124:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Bassitt, Chris
Bassitt
1531+9+0=154054%
LAALAAAngels
Canning, Griffin
Canning
1499+5+10=151446%
8/14Friday, Aug. 149:45 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Montas, Frankie
Montas
1531+18+0=154962%
SFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
1453+2+8=146338%
8/15Saturday, Aug. 157:15 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Luzardo, Jesus
Luzardo
153110+0=152159%
SFSFGiants
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
14537+10=145641%
8/16Sunday, Aug. 164:05 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Manaea, Sean
Manaea
1531+1+0=153260%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+10=146440%
8/17Monday, Aug. 179:40 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Fiers, Mike
Fiers
153133=152549%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1504+20+10=153451%
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 186:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Bassitt, Chris
Bassitt
1531+9+0=154055%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
150410+10=150445%
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 199:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+03=150145%
OAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+7=153955%
8/20Thursday, Aug. 209:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+0=150445%
OAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+10=154255%
8/21Friday, Aug. 219:40 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1499+11=149944%
OAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+10=154256%
8/22Saturday, Aug. 224:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1499+1+0=150044%
OAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+10=154256%
8/23Sunday, Aug. 234:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1499+1+0=150044%
OAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+10=154256%
8/24Monday, Aug. 249:05 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+14=152857%
TEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+6=148243%
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 259:05 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+0=153257%
TEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+10=148643%
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 269:05 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+0=153257%
TEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+10=148643%
8/27Thursday, Aug. 277:15 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+0=153257%
TEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+10=148643%
8/28Friday, Aug. 289:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+12=153043%
HOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+10=157757%
8/29Saturday, Aug. 297:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+0=153244%
HOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+10=157756%
8/30Sunday, Aug. 302:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+0=153244%
HOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+10=157756%
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 19:40 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+12=153062%
SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+7=144938%
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 29:40 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+0=153261%
SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+10=145239%
9/3Thursday, Sept. 34:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+0=153261%
SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+10=145239%
9/4Friday, Sept. 49:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+02=150545%
OAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+7=153955%
9/5Saturday, Sept. 54:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+0=150745%
OAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+10=154255%
9/6Sunday, Sept. 64:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+0=150745%
OAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+10=154255%
9/7Monday, Sept. 79:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+02=156553%
OAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+10=154247%
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 89:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+0=156754%
OAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+10=154246%
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 99:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+0=156754%
OAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+10=154246%
9/10Thursday, Sept. 103:40 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+0=156754%
OAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+10=154246%
9/11Friday, Sept. 119:05 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+14=152856%
TEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+10=148644%
9/12Saturday, Sept. 127:05 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+0=153257%
TEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+10=148643%
9/13Sunday, Sept. 132:35 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+0=153257%
TEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+10=148643%
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 158:40 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+11=153153%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+12=151447%
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 163:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+0=153253%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+10=151247%
9/18Friday, Sept. 189:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+11=145338%
OAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+9=154162%
9/19Saturday, Sept. 194:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+0=145438%
OAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+10=154262%
9/20Sunday, Sept. 204:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1453+1+0=145438%
OAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+10=154262%
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 2210 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+0=153240%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+9=160160%
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 239:40 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+0=153240%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+10=160260%
9/24Thursday, Sept. 249:40 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+0=153240%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+10=160260%
9/25Friday, Sept. 259:40 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+21=144136%
OAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+8=154064%
9/26Saturday, Sept. 264:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+0=144236%
OAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+10=154264%
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+0=144236%
OAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+10=154264%

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/7Friday, Aug. 79:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1568+143=157955%2
OAKOAKAthletics
Bassitt, Chris
Bassitt
1530+5+10=154545%3
8/6Thursday, Aug. 63:40 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Minor, Mike
Minor
1476+12+0=148843%4
OAKOAKAthletics
Fiers, Mike
Fiers
1529+0+10=153957%6
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 59:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Gibson, Kyle
Gibson
147718+0=145938%4
OAKOAKAthletics
Manaea, Sean
Manaea
1528+5+10=154362%6
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 49:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Lynn, Lance
Lynn
1479+43+1=152351%1
OAKOAKAthletics
Luzardo, Jesus
Luzardo
152616+7=151749%5
8/3Monday, Aug. 39:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Montas, Frankie
Montas
1524+16+0=154062%11
SEASEAMariners
Sheffield, Justus
Sheffield
14463+10=145338%1
8/2Sunday, Aug. 24:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Bassitt, Chris
Bassitt
1523+2+0=152561%3
SEASEAMariners
Graveman, Kendall
Graveman
14479+10=144839%2
8/1Saturday, Aug. 19:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Fiers, Mike
Fiers
1522+0+0=152261%3
SEASEAMariners
Kikuchi, Yusei
Kikuchi
144816+10=144239%2
7/31Friday, July 319:40 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Manaea, Sean
Manaea
1524+101=153360%3
SEASEAMariners
Walker, Taijuan
Walker
1446+12+7=146540%5
7/29Wednesday, July 293:30 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1494+27+0=152145%5
OAKOAKAthletics
Montas, Frankie
Montas
1526+18+10=155455%1
7/28Tuesday, July 289:40 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
1491222=146741%8
OAKOAKAthletics
Mengden, Daniel
Mengden
15298+10=153159%3
7/27Monday, July 273:40 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Canning, Griffin
Canning
1502+6+0=150846%0
OAKOAKAthletics
Bassitt, Chris
Bassitt
1527+0+10=153754%3
7/26Sunday, July 264:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Ohtani, Shohei
Ohtani
1503+6+0=150946%4
OAKOAKAthletics
Fiers, Mike
Fiers
1526+3+10=153954%6
7/25Saturday, July 254:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Bundy, Dylan
Bundy
1501+0+0=150143%4
OAKOAKAthletics
Manaea, Sean
Manaea
1528+11+10=154957%1
7/24Friday, July 2410 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Heaney, Andrew
Heaney
1503+32=150443%3
OAKOAKAthletics
Montas, Frankie
Montas
1527+17+10=155457%7

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

Comments