Updated Aug. 8, 2020 at 1:27 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Nationals have a 70% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1541, down 6 points from last week.

NL East standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
BravesBraves9-51.084%44%
NationalsNationals4-64.070%29%
PhilliesPhillies3-43.540%11%
MarlinsMarlins7-136%9%
MetsMets5-95.038%7%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/8Saturday, Aug. 86:05 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Eshelman, Tom
Eshelman
142123+0=139833%
WSHWSHNationals
Voth, Austin
Voth
154126+10=152567%
8/9Sunday, Aug. 912:35 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Means, John
Means
1421+21+0=144232%
WSHWSHNationals
Strasburg, Stephen
Strasburg
1541+23+10=157468%
8/10Monday, Aug. 107:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
1541+12=154054%
NYMNYMMets
Matz, Steven
Matz
152219+10=151346%
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1541+20+0=156157%
NYMNYMMets
Porcello, Rick
Porcello
152218+10=151443%
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Sanchez, Anibal
Sanchez
154122+0=151952%
NYMNYMMets
Wacha, Michael
Wacha
152226+10=150648%
8/13Thursday, Aug. 131:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Voth, Austin
Voth
154126+0=151550%
NYMNYMMets
Peterson, David
Peterson
152218+10=151450%
8/14Friday, Aug. 147 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Strasburg, Stephen
Strasburg
1541+232=156265%
BALBALOrioles
Means, John
Means
1421+21+9=145135%
8/15Saturday, Aug. 157:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
1541+1+0=154266%
BALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+10=143034%
8/16Sunday, Aug. 161:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1541+20+0=156168%
BALBALOrioles
Cobb, Alex
Cobb
1421+1+10=143232%
8/17Monday, Aug. 177:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Sanchez, Anibal
Sanchez
1541223=151647%
ATLATLBraves
Toussaint, Touki
Toussaint
15365+7=153853%
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Voth, Austin
Voth
154126+0=151550%
ATLATLBraves
Wright, Kyle
Wright
153629+10=151750%
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 197:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+0=154149%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+10=154651%
8/21Friday, Aug. 216:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+03=146338%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+9=155062%
8/22Saturday, Aug. 224:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+0=146638%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+10=155162%
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+03=153859%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+7=147341%
8/23Sunday, Aug. 2312:35 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+03=146338%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+7=154862%
8/24Monday, Aug. 246:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+0=146638%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+10=155162%
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 256:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+01=150043%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+10=155157%
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 266:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+0=150143%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+10=155157%
8/27Thursday, Aug. 277:15 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+0=150143%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+10=155157%
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:30 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+02=153954%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+8=151346%
8/29Saturday, Aug. 297:30 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+0=154154%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+10=151546%
8/30Sunday, Aug. 301:35 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+0=154154%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+10=151546%
8/31Monday, Aug. 317:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+02=153954%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+10=151146%
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+0=154154%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+10=151146%
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+0=154154%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+10=151146%
9/3Thursday, Sept. 34:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+0=154154%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+10=151146%
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+03=153849%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+9=154551%
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+0=154149%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+10=154651%
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+0=154149%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+10=154651%
9/7Monday, Sept. 76:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+03=153248%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+7=154852%
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 86:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+0=153548%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+10=155152%
9/10Thursday, Sept. 106:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+03=153347%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+12=155353%
9/11Friday, Sept. 116:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+0=153648%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+10=155152%
9/12Saturday, Sept. 126:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+0=153648%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+10=155152%
9/13Sunday, Sept. 1312:35 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+0=153648%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+10=155152%
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 156:40 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+01=154049%
TBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+12=154751%
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 163:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+0=154149%
TBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+10=154551%
9/18Friday, Sept. 185:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+0=154159%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+10=147641%
9/18Friday, Sept. 188:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+0=154159%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+10=147641%
9/19Saturday, Sept. 196:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+0=154159%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+10=147641%
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+0=154159%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+10=147641%
9/20Sunday, Sept. 204:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+0=154159%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+10=147641%
9/21Monday, Sept. 216:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+0=150144%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+7=154856%
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 226:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+0=150143%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+10=155157%
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+0=150143%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+10=155157%
9/24Thursday, Sept. 246:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
152212=151946%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+10=155154%
9/25Friday, Sept. 256:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+0=152146%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+10=155154%
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:15 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+0=152146%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+10=155154%
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+0=152146%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+10=155154%

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/7Friday, Aug. 76:05 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Milone, Tommy
Milone
1416123=140131%11
WSHWSHNationals
Sanchez, Anibal
Sanchez
154618+12=154069%0
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 56:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Porcello, Rick
Porcello
152223+0=149938%3
WSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1548+22+10=158062%1
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 47 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Matz, Steven
Matz
1523153=150542%3
WSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
1547+1+15=156358%5
7/30Thursday, July 304:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
154655+0=149150%6
TORTORBlue Jays
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1482+1810=149050%4
7/29Wednesday, July 296:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1544+182=156065%4
TORTORBlue Jays
Pearson, Nate
Pearson
14832012=145135%0
7/28Tuesday, July 286:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Roark, Tanner
Roark
148013+0=146741%5
WSHWSHNationals
Voth, Austin
Voth
154726+10=153159%1
7/27Monday, July 276:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Thornton, Trent
Thornton
1478133=146239%4
WSHWSHNationals
Sanchez, Anibal
Sanchez
154916+10=154361%1
7/26Sunday, July 261:05 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Loaisiga, Jonathan
Loaisiga
156937+0=153247%3
WSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
15504+10=155653%2
7/25Saturday, July 257:15 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Paxton, James
Paxton
15723+2=157160%2
WSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
154756+12=150340%9
7/23Thursday, July 237 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1571+512=162056%4
WSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1548+19+10=157744%1

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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