Updated Oct. 26, 2020 at 12:57 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Nationals are done for the season.

NL East standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
BravesBraves35-25
MarlinsMarlins31-294.0
PhilliesPhillies28-327.0
NationalsNationals26-349.0
MetsMets26-349.0

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Lugo, Seth
Lugo
151612+0=150449%5
WSHWSHNationals
Voth, Austin
Voth
152422+10=151251%15
9/26Saturday, Sept. 266:30 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Porcello, Rick
Porcello
15186+0=151249%3
WSHWSHNationals
Sanchez, Anibal
Sanchez
152315+10=151851%5
9/26Saturday, Sept. 263:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1519+58+2=157952%3
WSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1522+29+12=156348%4
9/24Thursday, Sept. 246:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Peterson, David
Peterson
1518102=150646%3
WSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
1523+1+10=153454%2
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Eflin, Zach
Eflin
149911+0=148848%12
WSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
152634+10=150252%3
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 226 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Hale, David
Hale
150021+0=147946%7
WSHWSHNationals
Espino, Paolo
Espino
152527+10=150854%8
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 223:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1502+31+0=153354%1
WSHWSHNationals
Voth, Austin
Voth
152328+10=150546%5
9/21Monday, Sept. 216:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1504+232=152552%1
WSHWSHNationals
Sanchez, Anibal
Sanchez
152116+7=151248%5
9/20Sunday, Sept. 204:35 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Braymer, Ben
Braymer
151720+0=149752%15
MIAMIAMarlins
Garrett, Braxton
Garrett
14733+10=148048%0
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1518+31+0=154958%1
MIAMIAMarlins
Alcantara, Sandy
Alcantara
1472+12+10=149442%2
9/19Saturday, Sept. 196:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
1520+9+0=152956%3
MIAMIAMarlins
Lopez, Pablo
Lopez
1469+6+10=148544%7
9/18Friday, Sept. 188:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Crowe, Wil
Crowe
152438+0=148653%3
MIAMIAMarlins
Castano, Daniel
Castano
14658+10=146747%14
9/18Friday, Sept. 185:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
152241+0=148148%5
MIAMIAMarlins
Sanchez, Sixto
Sanchez
1468+21+10=149952%0
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 161:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Voth, Austin
Voth
152032+0=148843%4
TBTBRays
Fairbanks, Peter
Fairbanks
155329+10=153457%2
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 156:40 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Sanchez, Anibal
Sanchez
1522151=150646%1
TBTBRays
Curtiss, John
Curtiss
155130+12=153354%6
9/13Sunday, Sept. 1312:35 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Wright, Kyle
Wright
154136+0=150541%8
WSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1525+33+10=156859%4
9/12Saturday, Sept. 126:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Anderson, Ian
Anderson
1540+5+0=154551%2
WSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
1526+5+10=154149%1
9/11Friday, Sept. 116:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Tomlin, Josh
Tomlin
154114+0=152755%7
WSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
152543+10=149245%8
9/10Thursday, Sept. 106:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Erlin, Robbie
Erlin
1540163=152153%7
WSHWSHNationals
Voth, Austin
Voth
152635+12=150347%6
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 86:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Yarbrough, Ryan
Yarbrough
15525+0=154754%3
WSHWSHNationals
Sanchez, Anibal
Sanchez
152416+10=151846%5
9/7Monday, Sept. 76:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1555+163=156851%1
WSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1522+31+7=156049%6
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
1525+10+0=153551%3
ATLATLBraves
Tomlin, Josh
Tomlin
153823+10=152549%10
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
152139+0=148237%10
ATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1541+24+10=157563%4
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:20 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Crowe, Wil
Crowe
152033+0=148743%10
ATLATLBraves
Ynoa, Huascar
Ynoa
154217+10=153557%9
9/4Friday, Sept. 44:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Voth, Austin
Voth
1522343=148544%1
ATLATLBraves
Milone, Tommy
Milone
154022+9=152756%7
9/3Thursday, Sept. 34:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Sanchez, Anibal
Sanchez
152317+0=150650%5
PHIPHIPhillies
Eflin, Zach
Eflin
150712+10=150550%6
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1525+28+0=155353%0
PHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1506+19+10=153547%3
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
1527+6+0=153349%0
PHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1503+31+10=154451%6
8/31Monday, Aug. 317:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
1529442=148350%6
PHIPHIPhillies
Howard, Spencer
Howard
150226+10=148650%8
8/30Sunday, Aug. 301:35 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Voth, Austin
Voth
153131+0=150052%5
BOSBOSRed Sox
Godley, Zack
Godley
149016+10=148448%9
8/29Saturday, Aug. 297:30 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Sanchez, Anibal
Sanchez
153217+0=151553%3
BOSBOSRed Sox
Mazza, Chris
Mazza
14894+10=149547%5
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:30 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1530+22+0=155257%10
BOSBOSRed Sox
Perez, Martin
Perez
1491+0+10=150143%2
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 266:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1499+30+0=152947%3
WSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
1531+6+10=154753%2
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 256:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
1496141=148148%8
WSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
153345+10=149852%3
8/24Monday, Aug. 246:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Lopez, Pablo
Lopez
1460+9+0=146943%11
WSHWSHNationals
Voth, Austin
Voth
153526+10=151957%8
8/23Sunday, Aug. 2312:35 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Mejia, Humberto
Mejia
1461103=144840%3
WSHWSHNationals
Sanchez, Anibal
Sanchez
153321+7=151960%9
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:48 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Crowe, Wil
Crowe
1535333=149956%3
MIAMIAMarlins
Sanchez, Sixto
Sanchez
14607+7=146044%5
8/22Saturday, Aug. 224:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Castano, Daniel
Castano
14608+0=145234%4
WSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1534+24+10=156866%5
8/21Friday, Aug. 216:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Castano, Daniel
Castano
145981=145036%3
WSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
1536+4+12=155264%2
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Voth, Austin
Voth
153420+0=151449%8
ATLATLBraves
Tomlin, Josh
Tomlin
153320+10=152351%5
8/17Monday, Aug. 177:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Sanchez, Anibal
Sanchez
1535233=150946%6
ATLATLBraves
Toussaint, Touki
Toussaint
15326+7=153354%7
8/16Sunday, Aug. 161:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1534+25+0=155963%6
BALBALOrioles
Means, John
Means
1433+22+10=146537%5
8/15Saturday, Aug. 157:35 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
1537+5+0=154264%3
BALBALOrioles
Wojciechowski, Asher
Wojciechowski
1431+0+10=144136%7
8/14Friday, Aug. 147 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Strasburg, Stephen
Strasburg
1535+202=155367%15
BALBALOrioles
Milone, Tommy
Milone
14338+9=143433%3
8/13Thursday, Aug. 131:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Voth, Austin
Voth
154018+0=152251%2
NYMNYMMets
Peterson, David
Peterson
152317+10=151649%8
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Sanchez, Anibal
Sanchez
154322+0=152154%6
NYMNYMMets
Gsellman, Robert
Gsellman
152039+10=149146%11
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1542+20+0=156257%2
NYMNYMMets
Porcello, Rick
Porcello
152116+10=151543%1
8/10Monday, Aug. 107:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
1539+12=153853%16
NYMNYMMets
Matz, Steven
Matz
152418+10=151647%4
8/9Sunday, Aug. 912:35 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Wojciechowski, Asher
Wojciechowski
14303+0=142730%6
WSHWSHNationals
Strasburg, Stephen
Strasburg
1538+24+10=157270%2
8/8Saturday, Aug. 86:05 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Eshelman, Tom
Eshelman
142123+0=139833%5
WSHWSHNationals
Voth, Austin
Voth
154126+10=152567%3
8/7Friday, Aug. 76:05 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Milone, Tommy
Milone
1416123=140131%11
WSHWSHNationals
Sanchez, Anibal
Sanchez
154618+12=154069%0
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 56:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Porcello, Rick
Porcello
152223+0=149938%3
WSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1548+22+10=158062%1
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 47 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Matz, Steven
Matz
1523153=150542%3
WSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
1547+1+15=156358%5
7/30Thursday, July 304:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
154655+0=149150%6
TORTORBlue Jays
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1482+1810=149050%4
7/29Wednesday, July 296:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1544+182=156065%4
TORTORBlue Jays
Pearson, Nate
Pearson
14832012=145135%0
7/28Tuesday, July 286:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Roark, Tanner
Roark
148013+0=146741%5
WSHWSHNationals
Voth, Austin
Voth
154726+10=153159%1
7/27Monday, July 276:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Thornton, Trent
Thornton
1478133=146239%4
WSHWSHNationals
Sanchez, Anibal
Sanchez
154916+10=154361%1
7/26Sunday, July 261:05 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Loaisiga, Jonathan
Loaisiga
156937+0=153247%3
WSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
15504+10=155653%2
7/25Saturday, July 257:15 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Paxton, James
Paxton
15723+2=157160%2
WSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
154756+12=150340%9
7/23Thursday, July 237 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1571+512=162056%4
WSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1548+19+10=157744%1

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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