2020 MLB Predictions

The Nationals are done for the season.

NL East standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Braves Braves35-25	—	✓	✓
Marlins Marlins31-29	4.0	✓	—
Phillies Phillies28-32	7.0	—	—
Nationals Nationals26-34	9.0	—	—
Mets Mets26-34	9.0	—	—

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Lugo	1516	–12	+0	=1504	49%	5
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Voth	1524	–22	+10	=1512	51%	15
9/26Saturday, Sept. 266:30 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Porcello	1518	–6	+0	=1512	49%	3
9/26Saturday, Sept. 266:30 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Sanchez	1523	–15	+10	=1518	51%	5
9/26Saturday, Sept. 263:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	deGrom	1519	+58	+2	=1579	52%	3
9/26Saturday, Sept. 263:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Scherzer	1522	+29	+12	=1563	48%	4
9/24Thursday, Sept. 246:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Peterson	1518	–10	–2	=1506	46%	3
9/24Thursday, Sept. 246:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1523	+1	+10	=1534	54%	2
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Eflin	1499	–11	+0	=1488	48%	12
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Fedde	1526	–34	+10	=1502	52%	3
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 226 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Hale	1500	–21	+0	=1479	46%	7
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 226 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Espino	1525	–27	+10	=1508	54%	8
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 223:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1502	+31	+0	=1533	54%	1
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 223:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Voth	1523	–28	+10	=1505	46%	5
9/21Monday, Sept. 216:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1504	+23	–2	=1525	52%	1
9/21Monday, Sept. 216:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Sanchez	1521	–16	+7	=1512	48%	5
9/20Sunday, Sept. 204:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Braymer	1517	–20	+0	=1497	52%	15
9/20Sunday, Sept. 204:35 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Garrett	1473	–3	+10	=1480	48%	0
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Scherzer	1518	+31	+0	=1549	58%	1
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1472	+12	+10	=1494	42%	2
9/19Saturday, Sept. 196:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1520	+9	+0	=1529	56%	3
9/19Saturday, Sept. 196:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Lopez	1469	+6	+10	=1485	44%	7
9/18Friday, Sept. 188:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Crowe	1524	–38	+0	=1486	53%	3
9/18Friday, Sept. 188:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Castano	1465	–8	+10	=1467	47%	14
9/18Friday, Sept. 185:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Fedde	1522	–41	+0	=1481	48%	5
9/18Friday, Sept. 185:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Sanchez	1468	+21	+10	=1499	52%	0
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 161:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Voth	1520	–32	+0	=1488	43%	4
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 161:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Fairbanks	1553	–29	+10	=1534	57%	2
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 156:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Sanchez	1522	–15	–1	=1506	46%	1
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 156:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Curtiss	1551	–30	+12	=1533	54%	6
9/13Sunday, Sept. 1312:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1541	–36	+0	=1505	41%	8
9/13Sunday, Sept. 1312:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Scherzer	1525	+33	+10	=1568	59%	4
9/12Saturday, Sept. 126:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1540	+5	+0	=1545	51%	2
9/12Saturday, Sept. 126:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1526	+5	+10	=1541	49%	1
9/11Friday, Sept. 116:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Tomlin	1541	–14	+0	=1527	55%	7
9/11Friday, Sept. 116:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Fedde	1525	–43	+10	=1492	45%	8
9/10Thursday, Sept. 106:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Erlin	1540	–16	–3	=1521	53%	7
9/10Thursday, Sept. 106:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Voth	1526	–35	+12	=1503	47%	6
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 86:05 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Yarbrough	1552	–5	+0	=1547	54%	3
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 86:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Sanchez	1524	–16	+10	=1518	46%	5
9/7Monday, Sept. 76:05 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Morton	1555	+16	–3	=1568	51%	1
9/7Monday, Sept. 76:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Scherzer	1522	+31	+7	=1560	49%	6
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1525	+10	+0	=1535	51%	3
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Tomlin	1538	–23	+10	=1525	49%	10
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Fedde	1521	–39	+0	=1482	37%	10
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1541	+24	+10	=1575	63%	4
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:20 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Crowe	1520	–33	+0	=1487	43%	10
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Ynoa	1542	–17	+10	=1535	57%	9
9/4Friday, Sept. 44:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Voth	1522	–34	–3	=1485	44%	1
9/4Friday, Sept. 44:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Milone	1540	–22	+9	=1527	56%	7
9/3Thursday, Sept. 34:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Sanchez	1523	–17	+0	=1506	50%	5
9/3Thursday, Sept. 34:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Eflin	1507	–12	+10	=1505	50%	6
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Scherzer	1525	+28	+0	=1553	53%	0
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1506	+19	+10	=1535	47%	3
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1527	+6	+0	=1533	49%	0
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1503	+31	+10	=1544	51%	6
8/31Monday, Aug. 317:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Fedde	1529	–44	–2	=1483	50%	6
8/31Monday, Aug. 317:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Howard	1502	–26	+10	=1486	50%	8
8/30Sunday, Aug. 301:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Voth	1531	–31	+0	=1500	52%	5
8/30Sunday, Aug. 301:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Godley	1490	–16	+10	=1484	48%	9
8/29Saturday, Aug. 297:30 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Sanchez	1532	–17	+0	=1515	53%	3
8/29Saturday, Aug. 297:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Mazza	1489	–4	+10	=1495	47%	5
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:30 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Scherzer	1530	+22	+0	=1552	57%	10
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Perez	1491	+0	+10	=1501	43%	2
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 266:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1499	+30	+0	=1529	47%	3
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 266:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1531	+6	+10	=1547	53%	2
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 256:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Arrieta	1496	–14	–1	=1481	48%	8
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 256:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Fedde	1533	–45	+10	=1498	52%	3
8/24Monday, Aug. 246:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Lopez	1460	+9	+0	=1469	43%	11
8/24Monday, Aug. 246:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Voth	1535	–26	+10	=1519	57%	8
8/23Sunday, Aug. 2312:35 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Mejia	1461	–10	–3	=1448	40%	3
8/23Sunday, Aug. 2312:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Sanchez	1533	–21	+7	=1519	60%	9
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:48 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Crowe	1535	–33	–3	=1499	56%	3
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:48 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Sanchez	1460	–7	+7	=1460	44%	5
8/22Saturday, Aug. 224:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Castano	1460	–8	+0	=1452	34%	4
8/22Saturday, Aug. 224:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Scherzer	1534	+24	+10	=1568	66%	5
8/21Friday, Aug. 216:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Castano	1459	–8	–1	=1450	36%	3
8/21Friday, Aug. 216:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1536	+4	+12	=1552	64%	2
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Voth	1534	–20	+0	=1514	49%	8
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Tomlin	1533	–20	+10	=1523	51%	5
8/17Monday, Aug. 177:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Sanchez	1535	–23	–3	=1509	46%	6
8/17Monday, Aug. 177:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Toussaint	1532	–6	+7	=1533	54%	7
8/16Sunday, Aug. 161:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Scherzer	1534	+25	+0	=1559	63%	6
8/16Sunday, Aug. 161:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Means	1433	+22	+10	=1465	37%	5
8/15Saturday, Aug. 157:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1537	+5	+0	=1542	64%	3
8/15Saturday, Aug. 157:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wojciechowski	1431	+0	+10	=1441	36%	7
8/14Friday, Aug. 147 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Strasburg	1535	+20	–2	=1553	67%	15
8/14Friday, Aug. 147 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Milone	1433	–8	+9	=1434	33%	3
8/13Thursday, Aug. 131:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Voth	1540	–18	+0	=1522	51%	2
8/13Thursday, Aug. 131:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Peterson	1523	–17	+10	=1516	49%	8
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Sanchez	1543	–22	+0	=1521	54%	6
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Gsellman	1520	–39	+10	=1491	46%	11
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Scherzer	1542	+20	+0	=1562	57%	2
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Porcello	1521	–16	+10	=1515	43%	1
8/10Monday, Aug. 107:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1539	+1	–2	=1538	53%	16
8/10Monday, Aug. 107:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Matz	1524	–18	+10	=1516	47%	4
8/9Sunday, Aug. 912:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wojciechowski	1430	–3	+0	=1427	30%	6
8/9Sunday, Aug. 912:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Strasburg	1538	+24	+10	=1572	70%	2
8/8Saturday, Aug. 86:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Eshelman	1421	–23	+0	=1398	33%	5
8/8Saturday, Aug. 86:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Voth	1541	–26	+10	=1525	67%	3
8/7Friday, Aug. 76:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Milone	1416	–12	–3	=1401	31%	11
8/7Friday, Aug. 76:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Sanchez	1546	–18	+12	=1540	69%	0
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 56:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Porcello	1522	–23	+0	=1499	38%	3
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 56:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Scherzer	1548	+22	+10	=1580	62%	1
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 47 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Matz	1523	–15	–3	=1505	42%	3
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 47 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1547	+1	+15	=1563	58%	5
7/30Thursday, July 304:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Fedde	1546	–55	+0	=1491	50%	6
7/30Thursday, July 304:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1482	+18	–10	=1490	50%	4
7/29Wednesday, July 296:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Scherzer	1544	+18	–2	=1560	65%	4
7/29Wednesday, July 296:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Pearson	1483	–20	–12	=1451	35%	0
7/28Tuesday, July 286:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Roark	1480	–13	+0	=1467	41%	5
7/28Tuesday, July 286:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Voth	1547	–26	+10	=1531	59%	1
7/27Monday, July 276:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Thornton	1478	–13	–3	=1462	39%	4
7/27Monday, July 276:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Sanchez	1549	–16	+10	=1543	61%	1
7/26Sunday, July 261:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Loaisiga	1569	–37	+0	=1532	47%	3
7/26Sunday, July 261:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1550	–4	+10	=1556	53%	2
7/25Saturday, July 257:15 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Paxton	1572	–3	+2	=1571	60%	2
7/25Saturday, July 257:15 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Fedde	1547	–56	+12	=1503	40%	9
7/23Thursday, July 237 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1571	+51	–2	=1620	56%	4
7/23Thursday, July 237 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Scherzer	1548	+19	+10	=1577	44%	1

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

NL East standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Comments

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

NL East standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Related Stories

Comments