Updated Aug. 8, 2020 at 1:27 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Braves have an 84% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1536, up 4 points from last week.

NL East standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
BravesBraves9-51.084%44%
NationalsNationals4-64.070%29%
PhilliesPhillies3-43.540%11%
MarlinsMarlins7-136%9%
MetsMets5-95.038%7%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/8Saturday, Aug. 86:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Wright, Kyle
Wright
1536291=150651%
PHIPHIPhillies
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
150116+12=149749%
8/9Sunday, Aug. 91:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1536+7+0=154357%
PHIPHIPhillies
Velasquez, Vince
Velasquez
150120+10=149143%
8/9Sunday, Aug. 94:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+0=153654%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+10=151146%
8/10Monday, Aug. 106:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Newcomb, Sean
Newcomb
153616+0=152047%
PHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1501+28+10=153953%
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Toussaint, Touki
Toussaint
153651=153047%
NYYNYYYankees
Happ, J.A.
Happ
157330+9=155253%
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Wright, Kyle
Wright
153629+0=150739%
NYYNYYYankees
Tanaka, Masahiro
Tanaka
15731+10=158261%
8/14Friday, Aug. 147:10 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+01=153559%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+9=147541%
8/15Saturday, Aug. 156:10 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1536+7+0=154360%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+10=147640%
8/16Sunday, Aug. 161:10 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Newcomb, Sean
Newcomb
153616+0=152056%
MIAMIAMarlins
Lopez, Pablo
Lopez
1466+5+10=148144%
8/17Monday, Aug. 177:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Sanchez, Anibal
Sanchez
1541223=151647%
ATLATLBraves
Toussaint, Touki
Toussaint
15365+7=153853%
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Voth, Austin
Voth
154126+0=151550%
ATLATLBraves
Wright, Kyle
Wright
153629+10=151750%
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 197:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+0=154149%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+10=154651%
8/21Friday, Aug. 217:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+03=149843%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+12=154857%
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+0=150144%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+10=154656%
8/23Sunday, Aug. 237 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+0=150144%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+10=154656%
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 257:10 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+01=157254%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+12=154846%
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 267 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+0=157354%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+10=154646%
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+01=153554%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+8=150946%
8/29Saturday, Aug. 291:15 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+0=153654%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+10=151146%
8/30Sunday, Aug. 307 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+0=153654%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+10=151146%
8/31Monday, Aug. 317:30 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+02=153453%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+10=151547%
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:30 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+0=153653%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+10=151547%
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:30 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+0=153653%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+10=151547%
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+03=153849%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+9=154551%
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+0=154149%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+10=154651%
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+0=154149%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+10=154651%
9/7Monday, Sept. 71:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+02=146438%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+10=154662%
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 87:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+0=146639%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+10=154661%
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 97:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+0=146639%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+10=154661%
9/10Thursday, Sept. 106:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+03=153347%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+12=155353%
9/11Friday, Sept. 116:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+0=153648%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+10=155152%
9/12Saturday, Sept. 126:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+0=153648%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+10=155152%
9/13Sunday, Sept. 1312:35 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+0=153648%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+10=155152%
9/14Monday, Sept. 147:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+01=153565%
BALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+8=142835%
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+0=153665%
BALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+10=143035%
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 167:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+0=153665%
BALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+10=143035%
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:10 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+0=153651%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+9=153049%
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:15 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+0=153651%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+10=153149%
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:10 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+0=153651%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+10=153149%
9/21Monday, Sept. 217:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+03=146339%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+7=154361%
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+0=146639%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+10=154661%
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+0=146639%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+10=154661%
9/24Thursday, Sept. 247:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+0=146639%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+10=154661%
9/25Friday, Sept. 257:10 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
150613=150244%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+10=154656%
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:10 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+0=150544%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+10=154656%
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+0=150544%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+10=154656%

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/6Thursday, Aug. 67 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pearson, Nate
Pearson
147911+0=146841%3
ATLATLBraves
Toussaint, Touki
Toussaint
153510+10=153559%4
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 57:10 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1478+16+0=149445%2
ATLATLBraves
Newcomb, Sean
Newcomb
153617+10=152955%1
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 47:10 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Shoemaker, Matt
Shoemaker
1480+12+4=149642%1
ATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1534+7+10=155158%10
8/3Monday, Aug. 37:10 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1520+57+0=157751%7
ATLATLBraves
Soroka, Mike
Soroka
1536+26+10=157249%2
8/2Sunday, Aug. 21:10 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Peterson, David
Peterson
152221+0=150148%0
ATLATLBraves
Wright, Kyle
Wright
153431+10=151352%4
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:10 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Wacha, Michael
Wacha
152522+0=150346%1
ATLATLBraves
Toussaint, Touki
Toussaint
153214+10=152854%7
7/31Friday, July 317:10 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Porcello, Rick
Porcello
1526243=149946%10
ATLATLBraves
Newcomb, Sean
Newcomb
153114+10=152754%11
7/30Thursday, July 307:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Yarbrough, Ryan
Yarbrough
15435+0=153850%1
ATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1530+1+10=154150%2
7/29Wednesday, July 297:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1544+152=155749%4
ATLATLBraves
Soroka, Mike
Soroka
1528+27+8=156351%7
7/28Tuesday, July 286:40 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Wright, Kyle
Wright
153027+0=150344%2
TBTBRays
Chirinos, Yonny
Chirinos
15437+10=154656%5
7/27Monday, July 276:40 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Foltynewicz, Mike
Foltynewicz
1533+33=153349%5
TBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
15408+10=154251%14
7/26Sunday, July 267 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Newcomb, Sean
Newcomb
152816+0=151249%14
NYMNYMMets
Porcello, Rick
Porcello
152917+10=152251%1
7/25Saturday, July 254:10 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
15273+0=152450%5
NYMNYMMets
Matz, Steven
Matz
153018+10=152250%3
7/24Friday, July 244 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Soroka, Mike
Soroka
1528+233=154844%0
NYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1529+54+10=159356%1

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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