Updated Oct. 26, 2020 at 12:57 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Braves are done for the season.

NL East standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
BravesBraves35-25
MarlinsMarlins31-294.0
PhilliesPhillies28-327.0
NationalsNationals26-349.0
MetsMets26-349.0

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
10/18Sunday, Oct. 188:15 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Anderson, Ian
Anderson
1552+28+0=158047%3
LADLADDodgers
May, Dustin
May
160812+0=159653%4
10/17Saturday, Oct. 174:38 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1554+19+0=157341%1
LADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1606+16+0=162259%3
10/16Friday, Oct. 169:08 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
May, Dustin
May
160410+0=159459%7
ATLATLBraves
Minter, A.J.
Minter
155611+0=154541%3
10/15Thursday, Oct. 158:08 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1610+25+0=163568%2
ATLATLBraves
Wilson, Bryse
Wilson
155010+0=154032%10
10/14Wednesday, Oct. 146:05 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
16067+0=159960%15
ATLATLBraves
Wright, Kyle
Wright
155410+0=154440%3
10/13Tuesday, Oct. 136:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Anderson, Ian
Anderson
1552+27+0=157941%8
LADLADDodgers
Gonsolin, Tony
Gonsolin
1608+17+0=162559%7
10/12Monday, Oct. 128:08 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1548+18+7=157338%5
LADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1612+16+7=163562%1
10/8Thursday, Oct. 82:08 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Wright, Kyle
Wright
154517+0=152859%7
MIAMIAMarlins
Sanchez, Sixto
Sanchez
1472+9+0=148141%0
10/7Wednesday, Oct. 72:08 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Lopez, Pablo
Lopez
1473+10+0=148335%0
ATLATLBraves
Anderson, Ian
Anderson
1543+23+0=156665%2
10/6Tuesday, Oct. 62:08 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Alcantara, Sandy
Alcantara
1475+18+7=150037%5
ATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1541+23+7=157163%9
10/1Thursday, Oct. 112 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1518+9+0=152743%0
ATLATLBraves
Anderson, Ian
Anderson
1539+16+10=156557%5
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 3012 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
1519+21+2=154244%0
ATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1537+21+15=157356%1
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pivetta, Nick
Pivetta
1488+0+0=148842%9
ATLATLBraves
Wilson, Bryse
Wilson
15417+10=154458%1
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:10 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Houck, Tanner
Houck
1486+12+0=149843%8
ATLATLBraves
Davidson, Tucker
Davidson
15448+10=154657%2
9/25Friday, Sept. 257:10 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Mazza, Chris
Mazza
148643=147943%7
ATLATLBraves
Wright, Kyle
Wright
154322+10=153157%8
9/24Thursday, Sept. 247:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Lopez, Pablo
Lopez
1464+10+0=147437%4
ATLATLBraves
Anderson, Ian
Anderson
1545+16+10=157163%2
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Sanchez, Sixto
Sanchez
1465+14+0=147936%4
ATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1543+26+10=157964%9
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Urena, Jose
Urena
14683+0=146540%1
ATLATLBraves
Wilson, Bryse
Wilson
154116+10=153560%11
9/21Monday, Sept. 217:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Rogers, Trevor
Rogers
1469113=145539%4
ATLATLBraves
Ynoa, Huascar
Ynoa
154011+7=153661%5
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:10 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Wright, Kyle
Wright
153735+0=150247%7
NYMNYMMets
Porcello, Rick
Porcello
15219+10=152253%0
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:07 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Anderson, Ian
Anderson
1540+17+0=155756%2
NYMNYMMets
Peterson, David
Peterson
151913+10=151644%7
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:10 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1536+27+0=156358%15
NYMNYMMets
Matz, Steven
Matz
152220+9=151142%2
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 167:35 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Hamels, Cole
Hamels
1539+11+0=155064%1
BALBALOrioles
Akin, Keegan
Akin
1436+2+10=144836%5
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:35 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Ynoa, Huascar
Ynoa
153817+0=152163%5
BALBALOrioles
Eshelman, Tom
Eshelman
143720+10=142737%1
9/14Monday, Sept. 147:35 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Toussaint, Touki
Toussaint
154481=153566%1
BALBALOrioles
Lopez, Jorge
Lopez
143219+8=142134%14
9/13Sunday, Sept. 1312:35 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Wright, Kyle
Wright
154136+0=150541%8
WSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1525+33+10=156859%4
9/12Saturday, Sept. 126:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Anderson, Ian
Anderson
1540+5+0=154551%2
WSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
1526+5+10=154149%1
9/11Friday, Sept. 116:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Tomlin, Josh
Tomlin
154114+0=152755%7
WSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
152543+10=149245%8
9/10Thursday, Sept. 106:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Erlin, Robbie
Erlin
1540163=152153%7
WSHWSHNationals
Voth, Austin
Voth
152635+12=150347%6
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 97:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Lopez, Pablo
Lopez
1469+7+0=147643%9
ATLATLBraves
Milone, Tommy
Milone
153618+10=152857%29
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 87:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Sanchez, Sixto
Sanchez
1466+6+0=147243%8
ATLATLBraves
Wright, Kyle
Wright
153931+10=151857%0
9/7Monday, Sept. 71:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Urena, Jose
Urena
146412=146137%5
ATLATLBraves
Anderson, Ian
Anderson
1541+3+10=155463%4
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
1525+10+0=153551%3
ATLATLBraves
Tomlin, Josh
Tomlin
153823+10=152549%10
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
152139+0=148237%10
ATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1541+24+10=157563%4
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:20 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Crowe, Wil
Crowe
152033+0=148743%10
ATLATLBraves
Ynoa, Huascar
Ynoa
154217+10=153557%9
9/4Friday, Sept. 44:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Voth, Austin
Voth
1522343=148544%1
ATLATLBraves
Milone, Tommy
Milone
154022+9=152756%7
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:30 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Erlin, Robbie
Erlin
153918+0=152153%7
BOSBOSRed Sox
Leyer, Robinson
Leyer
1489+2+10=150147%5
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:30 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Anderson, Ian
Anderson
15373+0=153459%10
BOSBOSRed Sox
Weber, Ryan
Weber
149127+10=147441%3
8/31Monday, Aug. 317:30 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1536+232=155758%6
BOSBOSRed Sox
Brewer, Colten
Brewer
14922+10=150042%3
8/30Sunday, Aug. 307 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Milone, Tommy
Milone
153516+0=151953%12
PHIPHIPhillies
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
150314+10=149947%10
8/29Saturday, Aug. 291:15 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Tomlin, Josh
Tomlin
153624+0=151252%1
PHIPHIPhillies
Eflin, Zach
Eflin
150116+10=149548%4
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Erlin, Robbie
Erlin
1538171=152049%4
PHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1500+20+10=153051%7
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 267 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Tanaka, Masahiro
Tanaka
15718+0=156350%1
ATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1537+18+10=156550%2
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 264:10 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1573+50+4=162763%1
ATLATLBraves
Anderson, Ian
Anderson
153411+15=153837%5
8/23Sunday, Aug. 237 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Eflin, Zach
Eflin
149515+0=148044%5
ATLATLBraves
Tomlin, Josh
Tomlin
153620+10=152656%4
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1496+19+0=151548%5
ATLATLBraves
Erlin, Robbie
Erlin
153517+10=152852%6
8/21Friday, Aug. 217:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1499+383=153446%2
ATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1532+17+15=156454%11
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Voth, Austin
Voth
153420+0=151449%8
ATLATLBraves
Tomlin, Josh
Tomlin
153320+10=152351%5
8/17Monday, Aug. 177:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Sanchez, Anibal
Sanchez
1535233=150946%6
ATLATLBraves
Toussaint, Touki
Toussaint
15326+7=153354%7
8/16Sunday, Aug. 161:10 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Erlin, Robbie
Erlin
153122+0=150954%4
MIAMIAMarlins
Hernandez, Elieser
Hernandez
1466+2+10=147846%0
8/15Saturday, Aug. 156:10 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1530+15+0=154561%2
MIAMIAMarlins
Castano, Daniel
Castano
146711+10=146639%1
8/14Friday, Aug. 147:10 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Wright, Kyle
Wright
1533281=150454%2
MIAMIAMarlins
Lopez, Pablo
Lopez
1464+6+9=147946%8
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Ynoa, Huascar
Ynoa
153412+0=152241%3
NYYNYYYankees
Tanaka, Masahiro
Tanaka
1573+0+10=158359%6
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Toussaint, Touki
Toussaint
153531=153145%6
NYYNYYYankees
Montgomery, Jordan
Montgomery
157215+9=156655%9
8/10Monday, Aug. 106:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Newcomb, Sean
Newcomb
153717+0=152048%8
PHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1500+28+10=153852%13
8/9Sunday, Aug. 94:47 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1535+8+0=154357%8
PHIPHIPhillies
Howard, Spencer
Howard
150217+10=149543%0
8/9Sunday, Aug. 91:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Ynoa, Huascar
Ynoa
153415+0=151954%5
PHIPHIPhillies
Velasquez, Vince
Velasquez
150321+10=149246%2
8/8Saturday, Aug. 86:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Wright, Kyle
Wright
1536291=150651%0
PHIPHIPhillies
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
150116+12=149749%5
8/6Thursday, Aug. 67 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pearson, Nate
Pearson
147911+0=146841%3
ATLATLBraves
Toussaint, Touki
Toussaint
153510+10=153559%4
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 57:10 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1478+16+0=149445%2
ATLATLBraves
Newcomb, Sean
Newcomb
153617+10=152955%1
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 47:10 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Shoemaker, Matt
Shoemaker
1480+12+4=149642%1
ATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1534+7+10=155158%10
8/3Monday, Aug. 37:10 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1520+57+0=157751%7
ATLATLBraves
Soroka, Mike
Soroka
1536+26+10=157249%2
8/2Sunday, Aug. 21:10 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Peterson, David
Peterson
152221+0=150148%0
ATLATLBraves
Wright, Kyle
Wright
153431+10=151352%4
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:10 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Wacha, Michael
Wacha
152522+0=150346%1
ATLATLBraves
Toussaint, Touki
Toussaint
153214+10=152854%7
7/31Friday, July 317:10 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Porcello, Rick
Porcello
1526243=149946%10
ATLATLBraves
Newcomb, Sean
Newcomb
153114+10=152754%11
7/30Thursday, July 307:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Yarbrough, Ryan
Yarbrough
15435+0=153850%1
ATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1530+1+10=154150%2
7/29Wednesday, July 297:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1544+152=155749%4
ATLATLBraves
Soroka, Mike
Soroka
1528+27+8=156351%7
7/28Tuesday, July 286:40 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Wright, Kyle
Wright
153027+0=150344%2
TBTBRays
Chirinos, Yonny
Chirinos
15437+10=154656%5
7/27Monday, July 276:40 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Foltynewicz, Mike
Foltynewicz
1533+33=153349%5
TBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
15408+10=154251%14
7/26Sunday, July 267 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Newcomb, Sean
Newcomb
152816+0=151249%14
NYMNYMMets
Porcello, Rick
Porcello
152917+10=152251%1
7/25Saturday, July 254:10 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
15273+0=152450%5
NYMNYMMets
Matz, Steven
Matz
153018+10=152250%3
7/24Friday, July 244 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Soroka, Mike
Soroka
1528+233=154844%0
NYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1529+54+10=159356%1

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

Comments