Updated Oct. 26, 2020 at 12:57 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Marlins are done for the season.

NL East standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
BravesBraves35-25
MarlinsMarlins31-294.0
PhilliesPhillies28-327.0
NationalsNationals26-349.0
MetsMets26-349.0

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
10/8Thursday, Oct. 82:08 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Wright, Kyle
Wright
154517+0=152859%7
MIAMIAMarlins
Sanchez, Sixto
Sanchez
1472+9+0=148141%0
10/7Wednesday, Oct. 72:08 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Lopez, Pablo
Lopez
1473+10+0=148335%0
ATLATLBraves
Anderson, Ian
Anderson
1543+23+0=156665%2
10/6Tuesday, Oct. 62:08 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Alcantara, Sandy
Alcantara
1475+18+7=150037%5
ATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1541+23+7=157163%9
10/2Friday, Oct. 22 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Sanchez, Sixto
Sanchez
1472+5+2=147933%2
CHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1521+41+12=157467%0
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 302 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Alcantara, Sandy
Alcantara
1468+17+2=148736%5
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1525+24+14=156364%1
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Urena, Jose
Urena
14656+0=145940%5
NYYNYYYankees
Schmidt, Clarke
Schmidt
156036+10=153460%0
9/26Saturday, Sept. 261:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Rogers, Trevor
Rogers
146715+0=145238%4
NYYNYYYankees
Garcia, Deivi
Garcia
155833+10=153562%11
9/25Friday, Sept. 257:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Alcantara, Sandy
Alcantara
1466+153=147839%4
NYYNYYYankees
Happ, J.A.
Happ
15598+8=155961%3
9/24Thursday, Sept. 247:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Lopez, Pablo
Lopez
1464+10+0=147437%4
ATLATLBraves
Anderson, Ian
Anderson
1545+16+10=157163%2
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Sanchez, Sixto
Sanchez
1465+14+0=147936%4
ATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1543+26+10=157964%9
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Urena, Jose
Urena
14683+0=146540%1
ATLATLBraves
Wilson, Bryse
Wilson
154116+10=153560%11
9/21Monday, Sept. 217:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Rogers, Trevor
Rogers
1469113=145539%4
ATLATLBraves
Ynoa, Huascar
Ynoa
154011+7=153661%5
9/20Sunday, Sept. 204:35 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Braymer, Ben
Braymer
151720+0=149752%15
MIAMIAMarlins
Garrett, Braxton
Garrett
14733+10=148048%0
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1518+31+0=154958%1
MIAMIAMarlins
Alcantara, Sandy
Alcantara
1472+12+10=149442%2
9/19Saturday, Sept. 196:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
1520+9+0=152956%3
MIAMIAMarlins
Lopez, Pablo
Lopez
1469+6+10=148544%7
9/18Friday, Sept. 188:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Crowe, Wil
Crowe
152438+0=148653%3
MIAMIAMarlins
Castano, Daniel
Castano
14658+10=146747%14
9/18Friday, Sept. 185:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
152241+0=148148%5
MIAMIAMarlins
Sanchez, Sixto
Sanchez
1468+21+10=149952%0
9/17Thursday, Sept. 171:10 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Eovaldi, Nathan
Eovaldi
1486+11+0=149753%5
MIAMIAMarlins
Urena, Jose
Urena
14696+10=147347%3
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 166:40 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Kickham, Mike
Kickham
1488+1+0=148954%4
MIAMIAMarlins
Rogers, Trevor
Rogers
146713+10=146446%8
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 156:40 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Houck, Tanner
Houck
1486+0+0=148650%2
MIAMIAMarlins
Alcantara, Sandy
Alcantara
1468+10+10=148850%0
9/14Monday, Sept. 144:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Velasquez, Vince
Velasquez
150418+0=148651%2
MIAMIAMarlins
Lopez, Pablo
Lopez
1466+2+10=147849%6
9/13Sunday, Sept. 133:55 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Eflin, Zach
Eflin
150714+0=149354%1
MIAMIAMarlins
Garrett, Braxton
Garrett
14635+10=146846%8
9/13Sunday, Sept. 131:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Rosso, Ramon
Rosso
150820+0=148850%1
MIAMIAMarlins
Sanchez, Sixto
Sanchez
1462+18+10=149050%2
9/12Saturday, Sept. 126:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Howard, Spencer
Howard
150525+0=148051%12
MIAMIAMarlins
Urena, Jose
Urena
1465+1+10=147649%6
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:30 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Parker, Blake
Parker
150724+0=148352%3
MIAMIAMarlins
Castano, Daniel
Castano
14637+10=146648%5
9/11Friday, Sept. 115:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1504+30+0=153458%11
MIAMIAMarlins
Rogers, Trevor
Rogers
1466+2+10=147842%0
9/10Thursday, Sept. 106:40 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
1505201=148450%6
MIAMIAMarlins
Alcantara, Sandy
Alcantara
1465+12+7=148450%7
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 97:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Lopez, Pablo
Lopez
1469+7+0=147643%9
ATLATLBraves
Milone, Tommy
Milone
153618+10=152857%29
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 87:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Sanchez, Sixto
Sanchez
1466+6+0=147243%8
ATLATLBraves
Wright, Kyle
Wright
153931+10=151857%0
9/7Monday, Sept. 71:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Urena, Jose
Urena
146412=146137%5
ATLATLBraves
Anderson, Ian
Anderson
1541+3+10=155463%4
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Rogers, Trevor
Rogers
14651+0=146436%4
TBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
1554+3+10=156764%5
9/5Saturday, Sept. 56:40 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Alcantara, Sandy
Alcantara
1462+9+0=147136%7
TBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1557+6+10=157364%3
9/4Friday, Sept. 46:40 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Lopez, Pablo
Lopez
1463+11+0=147441%4
TBTBRays
Fleming, Josh
Fleming
155624+9=154159%5
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 26:40 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1487+28+0=151556%2
MIAMIAMarlins
Sanchez, Sixto
Sanchez
1464+3+10=147744%1
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 16:40 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Merryweather, Julian
Merryweather
1488123=147350%2
MIAMIAMarlins
Hernandez, Elieser
Hernandez
1463+4+7=147450%3
8/31Monday, Aug. 311:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Rogers, Trevor
Rogers
146123=145632%5
NYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1522+59+10=159168%3
8/30Sunday, Aug. 301:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1552+8+0=156060%12
MIAMIAMarlins
Alcantara, Sandy
Alcantara
1463+16+10=148940%7
8/29Saturday, Aug. 296:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Fleming, Josh
Fleming
155030+0=152056%4
MIAMIAMarlins
Lopez, Pablo
Lopez
1464+8+10=148244%0
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Yarbrough, Ryan
Yarbrough
15499+0=154060%2
MIAMIAMarlins
Sanchez, Sixto
Sanchez
14657+9=146740%0
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 267:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Hernandez, Elieser
Hernandez
1466+83=147134%4
NYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1522+57+7=158666%5
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 259:40 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Lugo, Seth
Lugo
1524163=150556%0
MIAMIAMarlins
Rogers, Trevor
Rogers
14646+7=146544%3
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 255:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Castano, Daniel
Castano
1462102=145039%4
NYMNYMMets
Porcello, Rick
Porcello
152614+14=152661%0
8/24Monday, Aug. 246:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Lopez, Pablo
Lopez
1460+9+0=146943%11
WSHWSHNationals
Voth, Austin
Voth
153526+10=151957%8
8/23Sunday, Aug. 2312:35 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Mejia, Humberto
Mejia
1461103=144840%3
WSHWSHNationals
Sanchez, Anibal
Sanchez
153321+7=151960%9
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:48 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Crowe, Wil
Crowe
1535333=149956%3
MIAMIAMarlins
Sanchez, Sixto
Sanchez
14607+7=146044%5
8/22Saturday, Aug. 224:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Castano, Daniel
Castano
14608+0=145234%4
WSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1534+24+10=156866%5
8/21Friday, Aug. 216:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Castano, Daniel
Castano
145981=145036%3
WSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
1536+4+12=155264%2
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 197:10 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1525+56+0=158165%5
MIAMIAMarlins
Lopez, Pablo
Lopez
1460+7+10=147735%3
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:10 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Oswalt, Corey
Oswalt
152323+0=150055%8
MIAMIAMarlins
Mejia, Humberto
Mejia
14627+10=146545%3
8/17Monday, Aug. 177:10 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Gsellman, Robert
Gsellman
1521393=147951%11
MIAMIAMarlins
Yamamoto, Jordan
Yamamoto
14655+10=147049%4
8/16Sunday, Aug. 161:10 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Erlin, Robbie
Erlin
153122+0=150954%4
MIAMIAMarlins
Hernandez, Elieser
Hernandez
1466+2+10=147846%0
8/15Saturday, Aug. 156:10 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1530+15+0=154561%2
MIAMIAMarlins
Castano, Daniel
Castano
146711+10=146639%1
8/14Friday, Aug. 147:10 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Wright, Kyle
Wright
1533281=150454%2
MIAMIAMarlins
Lopez, Pablo
Lopez
1464+6+9=147946%8
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 126:37 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Yamamoto, Jordan
Yamamoto
1463+1+0=146448%14
TORTORBlue Jays
Pearson, Nate
Pearson
147810+10=147852%11
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 116:37 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Hernandez, Elieser
Hernandez
1464+2+0=146644%4
TORTORBlue Jays
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1477+19+10=150656%5
8/9Sunday, Aug. 91:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Lopez, Pablo
Lopez
1464+6+0=147033%2
NYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1524+57+10=159167%4
8/8Saturday, Aug. 87:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Castano, Daniel
Castano
14668+0=145842%4
NYMNYMMets
Peterson, David
Peterson
152218+10=151458%8
8/7Friday, Aug. 77:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Mejia, Humberto
Mejia
146583=145442%4
NYMNYMMets
Wacha, Michael
Wacha
152325+10=150858%3
8/6Thursday, Aug. 67:35 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
LeBlanc, Wade
LeBlanc
14178+0=140940%7
MIAMIAMarlins
Yamamoto, Jordan
Yamamoto
1464+4+10=147860%8
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 58:10 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Wojciechowski, Asher
Wojciechowski
141743=141041%1
MIAMIAMarlins
Yamamoto, Jordan
Yamamoto
1463+4+7=147459%2
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 55:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Hernandez, Elieser
Hernandez
14623+0=145954%1
BALBALOrioles
Cobb, Alex
Cobb
1418+0+10=142846%0
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 48:15 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Lopez, Pablo
Lopez
1460+0+6=146652%4
BALBALOrioles
Means, John
Means
1420+21+12=145348%0
7/26Sunday, July 261:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Dugger, Robert
Dugger
145820+0=143842%11
PHIPHIPhillies
Velasquez, Vince
Velasquez
150316+10=149758%6
7/25Saturday, July 254:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Smith, Caleb
Smith
14597+0=145239%1
PHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1501+18+10=152961%7
7/24Friday, July 247:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Alcantara, Sandy
Alcantara
1457+143=146840%5
PHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1503+26+10=153960%2

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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