2020 MLB Predictions

The Marlins are done for the season.

NL East standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Braves Braves35-25	—	✓	✓
Marlins Marlins31-29	4.0	✓	—
Phillies Phillies28-32	7.0	—	—
Nationals Nationals26-34	9.0	—	—
Mets Mets26-34	9.0	—	—

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
10/8Thursday, Oct. 82:08 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1545	–17	+0	=1528	59%	7
10/8Thursday, Oct. 82:08 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Sanchez	1472	+9	+0	=1481	41%	0
10/7Wednesday, Oct. 72:08 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Lopez	1473	+10	+0	=1483	35%	0
10/7Wednesday, Oct. 72:08 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1543	+23	+0	=1566	65%	2
10/6Tuesday, Oct. 62:08 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1475	+18	+7	=1500	37%	5
10/6Tuesday, Oct. 62:08 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1541	+23	+7	=1571	63%	9
10/2Friday, Oct. 22 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Sanchez	1472	+5	+2	=1479	33%	2
10/2Friday, Oct. 22 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Darvish	1521	+41	+12	=1574	67%	0
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 302 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1468	+17	+2	=1487	36%	5
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 302 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1525	+24	+14	=1563	64%	1
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Urena	1465	–6	+0	=1459	40%	5
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Schmidt	1560	–36	+10	=1534	60%	0
9/26Saturday, Sept. 261:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1467	–15	+0	=1452	38%	4
9/26Saturday, Sept. 261:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Garcia	1558	–33	+10	=1535	62%	11
9/25Friday, Sept. 257:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1466	+15	–3	=1478	39%	4
9/25Friday, Sept. 257:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Happ	1559	–8	+8	=1559	61%	3
9/24Thursday, Sept. 247:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Lopez	1464	+10	+0	=1474	37%	4
9/24Thursday, Sept. 247:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1545	+16	+10	=1571	63%	2
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Sanchez	1465	+14	+0	=1479	36%	4
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1543	+26	+10	=1579	64%	9
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Urena	1468	–3	+0	=1465	40%	1
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wilson	1541	–16	+10	=1535	60%	11
9/21Monday, Sept. 217:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1469	–11	–3	=1455	39%	4
9/21Monday, Sept. 217:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Ynoa	1540	–11	+7	=1536	61%	5
9/20Sunday, Sept. 204:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Braymer	1517	–20	+0	=1497	52%	15
9/20Sunday, Sept. 204:35 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Garrett	1473	–3	+10	=1480	48%	0
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Scherzer	1518	+31	+0	=1549	58%	1
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1472	+12	+10	=1494	42%	2
9/19Saturday, Sept. 196:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1520	+9	+0	=1529	56%	3
9/19Saturday, Sept. 196:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Lopez	1469	+6	+10	=1485	44%	7
9/18Friday, Sept. 188:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Crowe	1524	–38	+0	=1486	53%	3
9/18Friday, Sept. 188:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Castano	1465	–8	+10	=1467	47%	14
9/18Friday, Sept. 185:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Fedde	1522	–41	+0	=1481	48%	5
9/18Friday, Sept. 185:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Sanchez	1468	+21	+10	=1499	52%	0
9/17Thursday, Sept. 171:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Eovaldi	1486	+11	+0	=1497	53%	5
9/17Thursday, Sept. 171:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Urena	1469	–6	+10	=1473	47%	3
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 166:40 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Kickham	1488	+1	+0	=1489	54%	4
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 166:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1467	–13	+10	=1464	46%	8
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 156:40 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Houck	1486	+0	+0	=1486	50%	2
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 156:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1468	+10	+10	=1488	50%	0
9/14Monday, Sept. 144:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Velasquez	1504	–18	+0	=1486	51%	2
9/14Monday, Sept. 144:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Lopez	1466	+2	+10	=1478	49%	6
9/13Sunday, Sept. 133:55 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Eflin	1507	–14	+0	=1493	54%	1
9/13Sunday, Sept. 133:55 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Garrett	1463	–5	+10	=1468	46%	8
9/13Sunday, Sept. 131:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Rosso	1508	–20	+0	=1488	50%	1
9/13Sunday, Sept. 131:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Sanchez	1462	+18	+10	=1490	50%	2
9/12Saturday, Sept. 126:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Howard	1505	–25	+0	=1480	51%	12
9/12Saturday, Sept. 126:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Urena	1465	+1	+10	=1476	49%	6
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:30 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Parker	1507	–24	+0	=1483	52%	3
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:30 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Castano	1463	–7	+10	=1466	48%	5
9/11Friday, Sept. 115:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1504	+30	+0	=1534	58%	11
9/11Friday, Sept. 115:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1466	+2	+10	=1478	42%	0
9/10Thursday, Sept. 106:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Arrieta	1505	–20	–1	=1484	50%	6
9/10Thursday, Sept. 106:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1465	+12	+7	=1484	50%	7
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 97:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Lopez	1469	+7	+0	=1476	43%	9
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 97:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Milone	1536	–18	+10	=1528	57%	29
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 87:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Sanchez	1466	+6	+0	=1472	43%	8
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 87:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1539	–31	+10	=1518	57%	0
9/7Monday, Sept. 71:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Urena	1464	–1	–2	=1461	37%	5
9/7Monday, Sept. 71:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1541	+3	+10	=1554	63%	4
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1465	–1	+0	=1464	36%	4
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Glasnow	1554	+3	+10	=1567	64%	5
9/5Saturday, Sept. 56:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1462	+9	+0	=1471	36%	7
9/5Saturday, Sept. 56:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Snell	1557	+6	+10	=1573	64%	3
9/4Friday, Sept. 46:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Lopez	1463	+11	+0	=1474	41%	4
9/4Friday, Sept. 46:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Fleming	1556	–24	+9	=1541	59%	5
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 26:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1487	+28	+0	=1515	56%	2
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 26:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Sanchez	1464	+3	+10	=1477	44%	1
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 16:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Merryweather	1488	–12	–3	=1473	50%	2
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 16:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Hernandez	1463	+4	+7	=1474	50%	3
8/31Monday, Aug. 311:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1461	–2	–3	=1456	32%	5
8/31Monday, Aug. 311:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	deGrom	1522	+59	+10	=1591	68%	3
8/30Sunday, Aug. 301:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Snell	1552	+8	+0	=1560	60%	12
8/30Sunday, Aug. 301:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1463	+16	+10	=1489	40%	7
8/29Saturday, Aug. 296:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Fleming	1550	–30	+0	=1520	56%	4
8/29Saturday, Aug. 296:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Lopez	1464	+8	+10	=1482	44%	0
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Yarbrough	1549	–9	+0	=1540	60%	2
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Sanchez	1465	–7	+9	=1467	40%	0
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Hernandez	1466	+8	–3	=1471	34%	4
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	deGrom	1522	+57	+7	=1586	66%	5
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 259:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Lugo	1524	–16	–3	=1505	56%	0
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 259:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1464	–6	+7	=1465	44%	3
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 255:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Castano	1462	–10	–2	=1450	39%	4
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 255:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Porcello	1526	–14	+14	=1526	61%	0
8/24Monday, Aug. 246:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Lopez	1460	+9	+0	=1469	43%	11
8/24Monday, Aug. 246:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Voth	1535	–26	+10	=1519	57%	8
8/23Sunday, Aug. 2312:35 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Mejia	1461	–10	–3	=1448	40%	3
8/23Sunday, Aug. 2312:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Sanchez	1533	–21	+7	=1519	60%	9
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:48 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Crowe	1535	–33	–3	=1499	56%	3
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:48 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Sanchez	1460	–7	+7	=1460	44%	5
8/22Saturday, Aug. 224:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Castano	1460	–8	+0	=1452	34%	4
8/22Saturday, Aug. 224:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Scherzer	1534	+24	+10	=1568	66%	5
8/21Friday, Aug. 216:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Castano	1459	–8	–1	=1450	36%	3
8/21Friday, Aug. 216:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1536	+4	+12	=1552	64%	2
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 197:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	deGrom	1525	+56	+0	=1581	65%	5
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 197:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Lopez	1460	+7	+10	=1477	35%	3
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Oswalt	1523	–23	+0	=1500	55%	8
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Mejia	1462	–7	+10	=1465	45%	3
8/17Monday, Aug. 177:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Gsellman	1521	–39	–3	=1479	51%	11
8/17Monday, Aug. 177:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Yamamoto	1465	–5	+10	=1470	49%	4
8/16Sunday, Aug. 161:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Erlin	1531	–22	+0	=1509	54%	4
8/16Sunday, Aug. 161:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Hernandez	1466	+2	+10	=1478	46%	0
8/15Saturday, Aug. 156:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1530	+15	+0	=1545	61%	2
8/15Saturday, Aug. 156:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Castano	1467	–11	+10	=1466	39%	1
8/14Friday, Aug. 147:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1533	–28	–1	=1504	54%	2
8/14Friday, Aug. 147:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Lopez	1464	+6	+9	=1479	46%	8
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 126:37 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Yamamoto	1463	+1	+0	=1464	48%	14
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 126:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Pearson	1478	–10	+10	=1478	52%	11
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 116:37 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Hernandez	1464	+2	+0	=1466	44%	4
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 116:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1477	+19	+10	=1506	56%	5
8/9Sunday, Aug. 91:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Lopez	1464	+6	+0	=1470	33%	2
8/9Sunday, Aug. 91:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	deGrom	1524	+57	+10	=1591	67%	4
8/8Saturday, Aug. 87:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Castano	1466	–8	+0	=1458	42%	4
8/8Saturday, Aug. 87:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Peterson	1522	–18	+10	=1514	58%	8
8/7Friday, Aug. 77:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Mejia	1465	–8	–3	=1454	42%	4
8/7Friday, Aug. 77:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Wacha	1523	–25	+10	=1508	58%	3
8/6Thursday, Aug. 67:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	LeBlanc	1417	–8	+0	=1409	40%	7
8/6Thursday, Aug. 67:35 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Yamamoto	1464	+4	+10	=1478	60%	8
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 58:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wojciechowski	1417	–4	–3	=1410	41%	1
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 58:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Yamamoto	1463	+4	+7	=1474	59%	2
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 55:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Hernandez	1462	–3	+0	=1459	54%	1
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 55:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Cobb	1418	+0	+10	=1428	46%	0
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 48:15 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Lopez	1460	+0	+6	=1466	52%	4
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 48:15 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Means	1420	+21	+12	=1453	48%	0
7/26Sunday, July 261:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Dugger	1458	–20	+0	=1438	42%	11
7/26Sunday, July 261:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Velasquez	1503	–16	+10	=1497	58%	6
7/25Saturday, July 254:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Smith	1459	–7	+0	=1452	39%	1
7/25Saturday, July 254:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1501	+18	+10	=1529	61%	7
7/24Friday, July 247:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1457	+14	–3	=1468	40%	5
7/24Friday, July 247:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1503	+26	+10	=1539	60%	2

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

NL East standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Comments

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

NL East standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Related Stories

Comments