Updated Aug. 8, 2020 at 1:27 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Marlins have a 36% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1466, up 6 points from last week.

NL East standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
BravesBraves9-51.084%44%
NationalsNationals4-64.070%29%
PhilliesPhillies3-43.540%11%
MarlinsMarlins7-136%9%
MetsMets5-95.038%7%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/8Saturday, Aug. 87:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+0=146643%
NYMNYMMets
Peterson, David
Peterson
152218+10=151457%
8/9Sunday, Aug. 91:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Lopez, Pablo
Lopez
1466+5+0=147134%
NYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1522+56+10=158866%
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 116:37 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Hernandez, Elieser
Hernandez
1466+1+0=146744%
TORTORBlue Jays
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1477+19+10=150656%
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 126:37 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Yamamoto, Jordan
Yamamoto
1466+1+0=146748%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pearson, Nate
Pearson
14779+10=147852%
8/14Friday, Aug. 147:10 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+01=153559%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+9=147541%
8/15Saturday, Aug. 156:10 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1536+7+0=154360%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+10=147640%
8/16Sunday, Aug. 161:10 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Newcomb, Sean
Newcomb
153616+0=152056%
MIAMIAMarlins
Lopez, Pablo
Lopez
1466+5+10=148144%
8/17Monday, Aug. 177:10 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Wacha, Michael
Wacha
1522263=149352%
MIAMIAMarlins
Hernandez, Elieser
Hernandez
1466+1+10=147748%
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:10 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Peterson, David
Peterson
152218+0=150454%
MIAMIAMarlins
Yamamoto, Jordan
Yamamoto
1466+1+10=147746%
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 197:10 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+0=152156%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+10=147644%
8/20Thursday, Aug. 206:10 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+0=152156%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+10=147644%
8/21Friday, Aug. 216:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+03=146338%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+9=155062%
8/22Saturday, Aug. 224:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+0=146638%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+10=155162%
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+03=153859%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+7=147341%
8/23Sunday, Aug. 2312:35 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+03=146338%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+7=154862%
8/24Monday, Aug. 246:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+0=146638%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+10=155162%
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 257:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+02=146440%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+12=153360%
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 267:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+0=146641%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+10=153159%
8/27Thursday, Aug. 277:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+0=146641%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+10=153159%
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+02=153359%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+7=147341%
8/29Saturday, Aug. 296:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+0=153558%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+10=147642%
8/30Sunday, Aug. 301:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+0=153558%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+10=147642%
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 16:40 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+03=147449%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+12=147851%
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 26:40 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+0=147750%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+10=147650%
9/4Friday, Sept. 46:40 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+0=146639%
TBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+9=154461%
9/5Saturday, Sept. 56:40 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+0=146639%
TBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+10=154561%
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+0=146639%
TBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+10=154561%
9/7Monday, Sept. 71:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+02=146438%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+10=154662%
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 87:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+0=146639%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+10=154661%
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 97:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+0=146639%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+10=154661%
9/10Thursday, Sept. 106:40 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+01=150054%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+7=147346%
9/11Friday, Sept. 115:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+0=150154%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+10=147646%
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+0=150154%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+10=147646%
9/12Saturday, Sept. 126:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+0=150154%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+10=147646%
9/13Sunday, Sept. 131:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+0=150154%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+10=147646%
9/13Sunday, Sept. 134:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+0=150154%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+10=147646%
9/14Monday, Sept. 144:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+0=150154%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+10=147646%
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 156:40 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+0=150554%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+10=147646%
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 166:40 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+0=150554%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+10=147646%
9/17Thursday, Sept. 171:10 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+0=150554%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+10=147646%
9/18Friday, Sept. 185:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+0=154159%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+10=147641%
9/18Friday, Sept. 188:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+0=154159%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+10=147641%
9/19Saturday, Sept. 196:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+0=154159%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+10=147641%
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+0=154159%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+10=147641%
9/20Sunday, Sept. 204:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+0=154159%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+10=147641%
9/21Monday, Sept. 217:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+03=146339%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+7=154361%
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+0=146639%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+10=154661%
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+0=146639%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+10=154661%
9/24Thursday, Sept. 247:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+0=146639%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+10=154661%
9/25Friday, Sept. 257:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+03=146334%
NYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+8=158166%
9/26Saturday, Sept. 261:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+0=146634%
NYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+10=158366%
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+0=146634%
NYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+10=158366%

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/7Friday, Aug. 77:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Mejia, Humberto
Mejia
146583=145442%4
NYMNYMMets
Wacha, Michael
Wacha
152325+10=150858%3
8/6Thursday, Aug. 67:35 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
LeBlanc, Wade
LeBlanc
14178+0=140940%7
MIAMIAMarlins
Yamamoto, Jordan
Yamamoto
1464+4+10=147860%8
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 58:10 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Wojciechowski, Asher
Wojciechowski
141743=141041%1
MIAMIAMarlins
Yamamoto, Jordan
Yamamoto
1463+4+7=147459%2
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 55:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Hernandez, Elieser
Hernandez
14623+0=145954%1
BALBALOrioles
Cobb, Alex
Cobb
1418+0+10=142846%0
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 48:15 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Lopez, Pablo
Lopez
1460+0+6=146652%4
BALBALOrioles
Means, John
Means
1420+21+12=145348%0
7/26Sunday, July 261:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Dugger, Robert
Dugger
145820+0=143842%11
PHIPHIPhillies
Velasquez, Vince
Velasquez
150316+10=149758%6
7/25Saturday, July 254:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Smith, Caleb
Smith
14597+0=145239%1
PHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1501+18+10=152961%7
7/24Friday, July 247:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Alcantara, Sandy
Alcantara
1457+143=146840%5
PHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1503+26+10=153960%2

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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