2020 MLB Predictions

The Red Sox are done for the season.

AL East standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Rays Rays40-20	—	✓	✓
Yankees Yankees33-27	7.0	✓	—
Blue Jays Blue Jays32-28	8.0	✓	—
Orioles Orioles25-35	15.0	—	—
Red Sox Red Sox24-36	16.0	—	—

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Pivetta	1488	+0	+0	=1488	42%	9
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wilson	1541	–7	+10	=1544	58%	1
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Houck	1486	+12	+0	=1498	43%	8
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Davidson	1544	–8	+10	=1546	57%	2
9/25Friday, Sept. 257:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Mazza	1486	–4	–3	=1479	43%	7
9/25Friday, Sept. 257:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1543	–22	+10	=1531	57%	8
9/24Thursday, Sept. 247:30 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Cobb	1433	–4	+0	=1429	40%	13
9/24Thursday, Sept. 247:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Perez	1491	+2	+10	=1503	60%	1
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:30 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1435	+14	+0	=1449	41%	1
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Eovaldi	1489	+11	+10	=1510	59%	9
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:30 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Akin	1437	+9	+0	=1446	43%	3
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Pivetta	1487	–2	+12	=1497	57%	8
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Garcia	1571	–26	+0	=1545	57%	2
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Houck	1484	+5	+10	=1499	43%	10
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:30 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Happ	1568	–18	+0	=1550	58%	8
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Mazza	1486	–1	+10	=1495	42%	0
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:30 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Montgomery	1567	–15	–2	=1550	58%	6
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Perez	1487	–2	+7	=1492	42%	5
9/17Thursday, Sept. 171:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Eovaldi	1486	+11	+0	=1497	53%	5
9/17Thursday, Sept. 171:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Urena	1469	–6	+10	=1473	47%	3
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 166:40 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Kickham	1488	+1	+0	=1489	54%	4
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 166:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1467	–13	+10	=1464	46%	8
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 156:40 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Houck	1486	+0	+0	=1486	50%	2
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 156:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1468	+10	+10	=1488	50%	0
9/13Sunday, Sept. 131:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Perez	1484	–2	+0	=1482	37%	6
9/13Sunday, Sept. 131:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Morton	1553	+16	+10	=1579	63%	3
9/12Saturday, Sept. 126:40 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Eovaldi	1485	+10	+0	=1495	40%	4
9/12Saturday, Sept. 126:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Glasnow	1552	+3	+10	=1565	60%	5
9/11Friday, Sept. 116:40 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Triggs	1487	+2	+0	=1489	40%	1
9/11Friday, Sept. 116:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Snell	1550	+4	+10	=1564	60%	11
9/10Thursday, Sept. 106:40 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Kickham	1486	+1	–1	=1486	43%	4
9/10Thursday, Sept. 106:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Fleming	1551	–27	+9	=1533	57%	3
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 87:40 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Mazza	1484	–4	+0	=1480	48%	5
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 87:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Velasquez	1507	–22	+10	=1495	52%	2
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 84:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Perez	1485	+2	+0	=1487	48%	5
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 84:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Eflin	1506	–11	+9	=1504	52%	6
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:35 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1489	–14	+0	=1475	47%	10
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Triggs	1487	+2	+10	=1499	53%	8
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:30 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Anderson	1490	+2	–2	=1490	53%	8
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Weber	1486	–25	+8	=1469	47%	9
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Mazza	1485	–6	–2	=1477	50%	3
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:30 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1491	–19	+8	=1480	50%	2
9/4Friday, Sept. 44:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Roark	1490	–19	+0	=1471	49%	8
9/4Friday, Sept. 44:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Godley	1486	–19	+10	=1477	51%	7
9/3Thursday, Sept. 37:30 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Walker	1488	+0	–3	=1485	49%	6
9/3Thursday, Sept. 37:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Perez	1488	–3	+10	=1495	51%	2
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:30 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Erlin	1539	–18	+0	=1521	53%	7
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Leyer	1489	+2	+10	=1501	47%	5
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:30 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1537	–3	+0	=1534	59%	10
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Weber	1491	–27	+10	=1474	41%	3
8/31Monday, Aug. 317:30 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1536	+23	–2	=1557	58%	6
8/31Monday, Aug. 317:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Brewer	1492	–2	+10	=1500	42%	3
8/30Sunday, Aug. 301:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Voth	1531	–31	+0	=1500	52%	5
8/30Sunday, Aug. 301:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Godley	1490	–16	+10	=1484	48%	9
8/29Saturday, Aug. 297:30 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Sanchez	1532	–17	+0	=1515	53%	3
8/29Saturday, Aug. 297:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Mazza	1489	–4	+10	=1495	47%	5
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:30 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Scherzer	1530	+22	+0	=1552	57%	10
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Perez	1491	+0	+10	=1501	43%	2
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 266:37 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Brewer	1494	+2	+0	=1496	53%	1
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 266:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Merryweather	1483	–15	+10	=1478	47%	9
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 256:37 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Hart	1493	–12	+0	=1481	48%	9
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 256:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Anderson	1485	+0	+7	=1492	52%	7
8/23Sunday, Aug. 231:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Godley	1494	–19	+0	=1475	58%	4
8/23Sunday, Aug. 231:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	LeBlanc	1426	–15	+10	=1421	42%	5
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Perez	1495	–7	+0	=1488	57%	4
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Cobb	1425	+3	+10	=1438	43%	5
8/21Friday, Aug. 217:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Brewer	1494	–2	+0	=1492	55%	8
8/21Friday, Aug. 217:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Means	1426	+19	+10	=1455	45%	5
8/20Thursday, Aug. 207:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Eovaldi	1492	+4	–2	=1494	58%	7
8/20Thursday, Aug. 207:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wojciechowski	1428	+1	+10	=1439	42%	1
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 191:35 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Arrieta	1502	–14	+0	=1488	50%	3
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 191:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Hart	1490	–13	+10	=1487	50%	6
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:30 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Eflin	1500	–17	+0	=1483	50%	13
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Godley	1493	–20	+8	=1481	50%	6
8/17Monday, Aug. 177:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Perez	1494	–4	+0	=1490	38%	3
8/17Monday, Aug. 177:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Montgomery	1579	–14	+10	=1575	62%	6
8/16Sunday, Aug. 167 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Mazza	1495	+0	+0	=1495	41%	2
8/16Sunday, Aug. 167 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Happ	1578	–30	+10	=1558	59%	4
8/15Saturday, Aug. 157:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Eovaldi	1497	+10	+0	=1507	40%	5
8/15Saturday, Aug. 157:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Paxton	1576	–7	+10	=1579	60%	11
8/14Friday, Aug. 147:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Brewer	1498	–2	–2	=1494	31%	3
8/14Friday, Aug. 147:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1574	+49	+12	=1635	69%	10
8/13Thursday, Aug. 134:30 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Glasnow	1541	–9	+0	=1532	54%	17
8/13Thursday, Aug. 134:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Hart	1501	–3	+10	=1508	46%	8
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:30 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Snell	1540	+6	+0	=1546	57%	9
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Godley	1503	–16	+10	=1497	43%	5
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117:30 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Kittredge	1537	–33	+0	=1504	50%	8
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Perez	1505	–12	+10	=1503	50%	2
8/10Monday, Aug. 107:30 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Yarbrough	1536	–5	–3	=1528	52%	8
8/10Monday, Aug. 107:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Brasier	1506	–5	+10	=1511	48%	7
8/9Sunday, Aug. 91:35 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Shoemaker	1478	+6	+0	=1484	45%	3
8/9Sunday, Aug. 91:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Eovaldi	1505	+6	+10	=1521	55%	5
8/8Saturday, Aug. 87:30 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Anderson	1477	–2	+0	=1475	47%	2
8/8Saturday, Aug. 87:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Godley	1506	–18	+10	=1498	53%	1
8/7Friday, Aug. 77:30 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Roark	1478	–9	–3	=1466	48%	3
8/7Friday, Aug. 77:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Weber	1505	–33	+9	=1481	52%	5
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 56:40 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Perez	1502	–14	+0	=1488	42%	5
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 56:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Yarbrough	1537	–3	+10	=1544	58%	0
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 46:40 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Eovaldi	1504	+7	–1	=1510	43%	1
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 46:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Morton	1535	+14	+9	=1558	57%	5
8/2Sunday, Aug. 27 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Brice	1505	–3	+0	=1502	39%	7
8/2Sunday, Aug. 27 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Paxton	1574	–6	+10	=1578	61%	9
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Godley	1506	–15	+0	=1491	38%	2
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Tanaka	1573	–6	+10	=1577	62%	5
7/31Friday, July 317 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Weber	1507	–31	–1	=1475	38%	1
7/31Friday, July 317 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Montgomery	1572	–15	+8	=1565	62%	5
7/30Thursday, July 307:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Perez	1506	–18	+0	=1488	45%	4
7/30Thursday, July 307:07 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Matz	1527	–13	+10	=1524	55%	2
7/29Wednesday, July 297:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Eovaldi	1504	+7	–2	=1509	38%	6
7/29Wednesday, July 297:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	deGrom	1528	+55	+8	=1591	62%	5
7/28Tuesday, July 287:30 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Peterson	1526	–26	+0	=1500	48%	8
7/28Tuesday, July 287:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Hall	1506	–5	+10	=1511	52%	3
7/27Monday, July 277:30 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Wacha	1525	–25	–2	=1498	48%	7
7/27Monday, July 277:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Osich	1508	–5	+10	=1513	52%	4
7/26Sunday, July 261:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	LeBlanc	1413	–10	+0	=1403	37%	7
7/26Sunday, July 261:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Weber	1510	–23	+10	=1497	63%	4
7/25Saturday, July 251:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Cobb	1410	–3	+0	=1407	37%	7
7/25Saturday, July 251:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Perez	1513	–20	+10	=1503	63%	2
7/24Friday, July 247:30 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Milone	1412	–15	–2	=1395	32%	2
7/24Friday, July 247:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Eovaldi	1511	+2	+10	=1523	68%	13

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

AL East standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Comments

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

AL East standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Related Stories

Comments