Updated Aug. 8, 2020 at 1:27 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Brewers have a 57% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1518, down 2 points from last week.

NL Central standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
CubsCubs10-390%56%
CardinalsCardinals2-34.057%17%
BrewersBrewers5-64.057%15%
RedsReds6-84.552%12%
PiratesPirates3-117.54%<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/8Saturday, Aug. 87:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
15164+0=151248%
MILMILBrewers
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
1518+1+10=152952%
8/9Sunday, Aug. 92:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1516+27+0=154348%
MILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1518+30+10=155852%
8/10Monday, Aug. 108:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Dobnak, Randy
Dobnak
155222=154851%
MILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
1518+16+10=154449%
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 118:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
1552+3+0=155555%
MILMILBrewers
Lindblom, Josh
Lindblom
15186+10=152245%
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+0=155256%
MILMILBrewers
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
151814+10=151444%
8/13Thursday, Aug. 137:15 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
1518+11=151845%
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1527+16+8=155155%
8/14Friday, Aug. 148:15 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1518+30+0=154848%
CHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1527+28+10=156552%
8/15Saturday, Aug. 158:15 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
1518+16+0=153453%
CHCCHCCubs
Chatwood, Tyler
Chatwood
152724+10=151347%
8/16Sunday, Aug. 162:20 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Lindblom, Josh
Lindblom
15186+0=151249%
CHCCHCCubs
Lester, Jon
Lester
152714+10=152351%
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 188:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
151814+0=150442%
MINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+10=156258%
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 198:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+0=151944%
MINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+10=156256%
8/20Thursday, Aug. 207:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+0=151944%
MINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+10=156256%
8/21Friday, Aug. 217:05 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+13=151657%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+10=147043%
8/22Saturday, Aug. 224:05 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+0=151957%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+10=147043%
8/23Sunday, Aug. 231:35 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+0=151957%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+10=147043%
8/24Monday, Aug. 248:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+02=151448%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+8=152752%
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 258:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+0=151648%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+10=152952%
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 268:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+0=151648%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+10=152952%
8/27Thursday, Aug. 278:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+0=151648%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+10=152952%
8/28Friday, Aug. 288:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+1=146140%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+10=152960%
8/29Saturday, Aug. 297:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+0=146040%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+10=152960%
8/30Sunday, Aug. 302:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+0=146040%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+10=152960%
8/31Monday, Aug. 317:40 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+0=146040%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+10=152960%
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:40 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+0=144037%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+10=152963%
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:40 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+0=144037%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+10=152963%
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+0=151947%
CLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+9=153953%
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+0=151947%
CLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+10=154053%
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+0=151947%
CLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+10=154053%
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 87:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+1=152060%
DETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+7=144740%
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 91:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+0=151960%
DETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+10=145040%
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+01=152650%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+10=152950%
9/12Saturday, Sept. 127:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+0=152750%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+10=152950%
9/13Sunday, Sept. 132:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+0=152750%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+10=152950%
9/14Monday, Sept. 145:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+02=151047%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+10=152953%
9/14Monday, Sept. 148:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+0=151248%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+10=152952%
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:40 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+0=151248%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+10=152952%
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 165:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+0=151248%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+10=152952%
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 168:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+0=151248%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+10=152952%
9/18Friday, Sept. 188:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+0=144738%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+12=153162%
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+0=144739%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+10=152961%
9/20Sunday, Sept. 202:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+0=144739%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+10=152961%
9/21Monday, Sept. 216:40 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+12=151749%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+10=152651%
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+0=151949%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+10=152651%
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:40 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+0=151949%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+10=152651%
9/24Thursday, Sept. 248:15 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+12=151750%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+8=152050%
9/25Friday, Sept. 255:15 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+02=151048%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+8=152752%
9/25Friday, Sept. 258:15 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+12=151750%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+8=152050%
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:15 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+0=151950%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+10=152250%
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:15 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+0=151950%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+10=152250%

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/7Friday, Aug. 78:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
1514+12=151349%8
MILMILBrewers
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
152110+9=152051%3
8/6Thursday, Aug. 68:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Lindblom, Josh
Lindblom
151810+0=150850%8
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Gonzalez, Gio
Gonzalez
1500+1+10=151150%3
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 58:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
1517+121=152853%1
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Keuchel, Dallas
Keuchel
15012+9=150847%0
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 48:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Giolito, Lucas
Giolito
1500+29+0=152946%3
MILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1519+32+10=156154%2
8/3Monday, Aug. 38:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Rodon, Carlos
Rodon
149922=149544%6
MILMILBrewers
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
1520+2+15=153756%4
7/29Wednesday, July 297:05 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1519+27+0=154658%3
PITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1468+15+10=149342%0
7/28Tuesday, July 287:05 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Lindblom, Josh
Lindblom
15219+0=151257%6
PITPITPirates
Holland, Derek
Holland
146612+10=146443%8
7/27Monday, July 277:05 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
1520+122=153059%6
PITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
14675+7=146941%5
7/26Sunday, July 262:20 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Peralta, Freddy
Peralta
15237+0=151651%1
CHCCHCCubs
Chatwood, Tyler
Chatwood
152224+10=150849%9
7/25Saturday, July 251:05 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Burnes, Corbin
Burnes
152036+0=148439%8
CHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1525+26+10=156161%3
7/24Friday, July 247 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1522+271=154849%0
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1524+18+10=155251%3

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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