Updated Oct. 26, 2020 at 12:57 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Brewers are done for the season.

NL Central standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
CubsCubs34-26
RedsReds31-293.0
CardinalsCardinals30-283.0
BrewersBrewers29-315.0
PiratesPirates19-4115.0

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
10/1Thursday, Oct. 110 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1508+33+0=154133%0
LADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1605+22+10=163767%3
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 3010 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Suter, Brent
Suter
1509+1+1=151128%2
LADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1604+19+15=163872%4
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:15 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
15112+0=150949%2
STLSTLCardinals
Gomber, Austin
Gomber
15107+10=151351%5
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:07 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1509+272=153451%3
STLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
1512+9+8=152949%0
9/25Friday, Sept. 258:15 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Ponce de Leon, Daniel
Ponce de Leon
1509142=149347%9
MILMILBrewers
Lindblom, Josh
Lindblom
15125+8=151553%1
9/25Friday, Sept. 255:15 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Suter, Brent
Suter
15101+0=150944%3
STLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1511+32+10=155356%0
9/24Thursday, Sept. 248:15 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Burnes, Corbin
Burnes
1512+202=153051%2
STLSTLCardinals
Kim, Kwang-Hyun
Kim
1509+3+8=152049%4
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:40 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
151412+0=150244%1
CINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
1515+17+10=154256%6
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 226:40 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
15134+0=150946%3
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1516+12+10=153854%2
9/21Monday, Sept. 216:40 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1514+262=153850%3
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1514+13+10=153750%6
9/20Sunday, Sept. 202:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Keller, Brad
Keller
1451+28+0=147945%3
MILMILBrewers
Lindblom, Josh
Lindblom
15139+10=151455%5
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Bubic, Kris
Bubic
14522+0=145038%0
MILMILBrewers
Burnes, Corbin
Burnes
1511+14+10=153562%5
9/18Friday, Sept. 188:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Duffy, Danny
Duffy
1454+13+0=146743%5
MILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
15107+12=151557%9
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 168:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Oviedo, Johan
Oviedo
151320+0=149347%0
MILMILBrewers
Suter, Brent
Suter
15081+10=151753%6
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 165:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
1512+5+0=151746%4
MILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1509+28+10=154754%2
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:40 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1517+37+0=155456%3
MILMILBrewers
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
15044+10=151044%18
9/14Monday, Sept. 148:30 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Ponce de Leon, Daniel
Ponce de Leon
151624+0=149245%3
MILMILBrewers
Burnes, Corbin
Burnes
1505+12+10=152755%2
9/14Monday, Sept. 145:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Kim, Kwang-Hyun
Kim
151712=151452%1
MILMILBrewers
Lindblom, Josh
Lindblom
150416+10=149848%2
9/13Sunday, Sept. 132:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
152511+0=151450%12
MILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
15082+10=151650%0
9/12Saturday, Sept. 127:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1524+18+0=154254%4
MILMILBrewers
Suter, Brent
Suter
15093+10=151646%2
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Lester, Jon
Lester
1525251=149944%0
MILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1508+24+10=154256%1
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 91:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Burnes, Corbin
Burnes
1504+3+0=150757%19
DETDETTigers
Boyd, Matthew
Boyd
1447+2+10=145943%0
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 87:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
1506+3+1=151057%3
DETDETTigers
Turnbull, Spencer
Turnbull
1445+12+7=146443%8
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
1508+2+0=151041%1
CLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1540+25+10=157559%4
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1509+27+0=153650%3
CLECLEIndians
Civale, Aaron
Civale
153912+10=153750%4
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Burnes, Corbin
Burnes
15065+0=150145%7
CLECLEIndians
Carrasco, Carlos
Carrasco
154213+9=153855%1
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:40 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Turnbull, Spencer
Turnbull
1448+17+0=146542%5
MILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
1505+7+10=152258%8
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:40 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Fulmer, Michael
Fulmer
14431+0=144240%12
MILMILBrewers
Lindblom, Josh
Lindblom
15099+10=151060%1
8/31Monday, Aug. 317:40 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
14583+0=145541%5
MILMILBrewers
Suter, Brent
Suter
1508+0+10=151859%6
8/30Sunday, Aug. 302:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
1455+3+0=145837%5
MILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1511+30+10=155163%1
8/29Saturday, Aug. 297:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
14562+0=145440%6
MILMILBrewers
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
1510+3+10=152360%7
8/28Friday, Aug. 288:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Holland, Derek
Holland
1459162=144142%1
MILMILBrewers
Burnes, Corbin
Burnes
150818+10=150058%9
8/27Thursday, Aug. 278:35 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
151134+0=147746%6
MILMILBrewers
Lindblom, Josh
Lindblom
151112+10=150954%0
8/27Thursday, Aug. 275:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1509+29+2=154051%6
MILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
1513+11+12=153649%1
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 258:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1510+4+0=151445%2
MILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1512+28+10=155055%3
8/24Monday, Aug. 248:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
1511+132=152250%2
MILMILBrewers
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
1510+5+8=152350%4
8/23Sunday, Aug. 231:35 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Burnes, Corbin
Burnes
151221+0=149154%4
PITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
14587+10=146146%5
8/22Saturday, Aug. 224:05 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Lindblom, Josh
Lindblom
15159+0=150659%5
PITPITPirates
Holland, Derek
Holland
145519+10=144641%12
8/21Friday, Aug. 217:05 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
1518+143=152959%2
PITPITPirates
Kuhl, Chad
Kuhl
1452+4+10=146641%7
8/20Thursday, Aug. 207:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1520+28+0=154850%1
MINMINTwins
Berrios, Jose
Berrios
15508+10=155250%7
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 198:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
1517+0+0=151743%9
MINMINTwins
Hill, Rich
Hill
1553+3+10=156657%3
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 188:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Burnes, Corbin
Burnes
151829+0=148939%3
MINMINTwins
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
1552+7+10=156961%4
8/16Sunday, Aug. 162:20 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Lindblom, Josh
Lindblom
15179+0=150847%6
CHCCHCCubs
Lester, Jon
Lester
153112+10=152953%5
8/15Saturday, Aug. 153:20 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
1516+17+0=153352%6
CHCCHCCubs
Rea, Colin
Rea
153226+10=151648%5
8/14Friday, Aug. 148:15 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1515+31+0=154650%4
CHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
1533+1+10=154450%3
8/13Thursday, Aug. 137:15 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
1516+11=151643%2
CHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1532+26+8=156657%4
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
1548+5+0=155355%12
MILMILBrewers
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
151913+10=151645%2
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 118:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Clippard, Tyler
Clippard
155023+0=152751%4
MILMILBrewers
Lindblom, Josh
Lindblom
15185+10=152349%6
8/10Monday, Aug. 108:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Dobnak, Randy
Dobnak
154812=154550%4
MILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
1519+16+10=154550%2
8/9Sunday, Aug. 92:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1518+26+0=154448%3
MILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1517+31+10=155852%9
8/8Saturday, Aug. 87:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
15164+0=151248%4
MILMILBrewers
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
1518+1+10=152952%1
8/7Friday, Aug. 78:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
1514+12=151349%8
MILMILBrewers
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
152110+9=152051%3
8/6Thursday, Aug. 68:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Lindblom, Josh
Lindblom
151810+0=150850%8
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Gonzalez, Gio
Gonzalez
1500+1+10=151150%3
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 58:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
1517+121=152853%1
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Keuchel, Dallas
Keuchel
15012+9=150847%0
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 48:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Giolito, Lucas
Giolito
1500+29+0=152946%3
MILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1519+32+10=156154%2
8/3Monday, Aug. 38:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Rodon, Carlos
Rodon
149922=149544%6
MILMILBrewers
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
1520+2+15=153756%4
7/29Wednesday, July 297:05 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1519+27+0=154658%3
PITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1468+15+10=149342%0
7/28Tuesday, July 287:05 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Lindblom, Josh
Lindblom
15219+0=151257%6
PITPITPirates
Holland, Derek
Holland
146612+10=146443%8
7/27Monday, July 277:05 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
1520+122=153059%6
PITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
14675+7=146941%5
7/26Sunday, July 262:20 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Peralta, Freddy
Peralta
15237+0=151651%1
CHCCHCCubs
Chatwood, Tyler
Chatwood
152224+10=150849%9
7/25Saturday, July 251:05 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Burnes, Corbin
Burnes
152036+0=148439%8
CHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1525+26+10=156161%3
7/24Friday, July 247 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1522+271=154849%0
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1524+18+10=155251%3

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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