Updated Aug. 8, 2020 at 1:27 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Cubs have a 90% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1527, the same as last week.

NL Central standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
CubsCubs10-390%56%
CardinalsCardinals2-34.057%17%
BrewersBrewers5-64.057%15%
RedsReds6-84.552%12%
PiratesPirates3-117.54%<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Lester, Jon
Lester
152714+4=151745%
CLECLEIndians
Clevinger, Mike
Clevinger
1531+11+10=155255%
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 126:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
1527+4+0=153150%
CLECLEIndians
Carrasco, Carlos
Carrasco
15317+10=153450%
8/13Thursday, Aug. 137:15 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
1518+11=151845%
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1527+16+8=155155%
8/14Friday, Aug. 148:15 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1518+30+0=154848%
CHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1527+28+10=156552%
8/15Saturday, Aug. 158:15 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
1518+16+0=153453%
CHCCHCCubs
Chatwood, Tyler
Chatwood
152724+10=151347%
8/16Sunday, Aug. 162:20 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Lindblom, Josh
Lindblom
15186+0=151249%
CHCCHCCubs
Lester, Jon
Lester
152714+10=152351%
8/17Monday, Aug. 178:15 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
1512+11=151246%
CHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
1527+4+10=154154%
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 188:15 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Hudson, Dakota
Hudson
151214+0=149842%
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1527+16+10=155358%
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 198:15 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+0=151246%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+10=153754%
8/21Friday, Aug. 218:15 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1500+01=149944%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+12=153956%
8/22Saturday, Aug. 228:15 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1500+0+0=150045%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+10=153755%
8/23Sunday, Aug. 232:20 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1500+0+0=150045%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+10=153755%
8/24Monday, Aug. 247:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+02=152561%
DETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+9=144939%
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 257:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+0=152761%
DETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+10=145039%
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 267:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+0=152761%
DETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+10=145039%
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+0=152751%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+8=152449%
8/29Saturday, Aug. 294:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+0=152750%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+10=152650%
8/29Saturday, Aug. 297:40 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+0=152750%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+10=152650%
8/30Sunday, Aug. 301:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+0=152750%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+10=152650%
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:05 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+0=152759%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+8=146841%
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:05 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+0=152758%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+10=147042%
9/3Thursday, Sept. 31:35 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+0=152758%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+10=147042%
9/4Friday, Sept. 48:15 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+0=151247%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+8=153553%
9/5Saturday, Sept. 58:15 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+0=151246%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+10=153754%
9/6Sunday, Sept. 67 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+0=151246%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+10=153754%
9/7Monday, Sept. 74 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+0=151246%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+10=153754%
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 88:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+0=151647%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+10=153753%
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 98:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+0=151647%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+10=153753%
9/10Thursday, Sept. 108:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+0=151647%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+10=153753%
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+01=152650%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+10=152950%
9/12Saturday, Sept. 127:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+0=152750%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+10=152950%
9/13Sunday, Sept. 132:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+0=152750%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+10=152950%
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 158:15 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+0=153049%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+11=153851%
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 168:15 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+0=153049%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+10=153751%
9/18Friday, Sept. 188:15 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+01=155152%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+12=153948%
9/19Saturday, Sept. 198:15 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+0=155252%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+10=153748%
9/20Sunday, Sept. 202:20 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+0=155252%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+10=153748%
9/21Monday, Sept. 217:05 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+02=152558%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+12=147242%
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:05 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+0=152758%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+10=147042%
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:05 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+0=152758%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+10=147042%
9/24Thursday, Sept. 247:05 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+0=152758%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+10=147042%
9/25Friday, Sept. 258:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+02=152553%
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1500+0+8=150847%
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+0=152753%
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1500+0+10=151047%
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:05 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+0=152753%
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1500+0+10=151047%

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/6Thursday, Aug. 67:07 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Chatwood, Tyler
Chatwood
153117+0=151457%2
KCKCRoyals
Keller, Brad
Keller
1441+14+10=146543%13
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 58:05 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1530+242=155265%6
KCKCRoyals
Bubic, Kris
Bubic
14426+8=144435%1
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 48:15 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Singer, Brady
Singer
14432+0=144134%4
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1530+14+10=155466%5
8/3Monday, Aug. 38:15 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Duffy, Danny
Duffy
1444+152=145739%0
CHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
15294+10=153561%2
8/2Sunday, Aug. 22:20 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
14644+0=146041%1
CHCCHCCubs
Lester, Jon
Lester
152817+10=152159%2
8/1Saturday, Aug. 18:15 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
14656+0=145942%3
CHCCHCCubs
Chatwood, Tyler
Chatwood
152720+10=151758%4
7/31Friday, July 318:15 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
14665+0=146136%3
CHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1526+23+10=155964%6
7/29Wednesday, July 296:40 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1528+23+0=155150%7
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1517+26+10=155350%12
7/28Tuesday, July 286:40 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
15265+0=152154%8
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
151933+10=149646%5
7/27Monday, July 276:40 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Lester, Jon
Lester
1525202=150350%8
CINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
152027+10=150350%7
7/26Sunday, July 262:20 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Peralta, Freddy
Peralta
15237+0=151651%1
CHCCHCCubs
Chatwood, Tyler
Chatwood
152224+10=150849%9
7/25Saturday, July 251:05 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Burnes, Corbin
Burnes
152036+0=148439%8
CHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1525+26+10=156161%3
7/24Friday, July 247 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1522+271=154849%0
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1524+18+10=155251%3

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

Comments