Updated Oct. 26, 2020 at 12:57 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Cubs are done for the season.

NL Central standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
CubsCubs34-26
RedsReds31-293.0
CardinalsCardinals30-283.0
BrewersBrewers29-315.0
PiratesPirates19-4115.0

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
10/2Friday, Oct. 22 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Sanchez, Sixto
Sanchez
1472+5+2=147933%2
CHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1521+41+12=157467%0
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 302 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Alcantara, Sandy
Alcantara
1468+17+2=148736%5
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1525+24+14=156364%1
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Alzolay, Adbert
Alzolay
152426+0=149848%10
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Lopez, Reynaldo
Lopez
151615+10=151152%8
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Lester, Jon
Lester
152520+0=150548%5
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Dunning, Dane
Dunning
15142+10=152252%9
9/25Friday, Sept. 258 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1523+372=155857%10
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Cease, Dylan
Cease
151719+8=150643%0
9/24Thursday, Sept. 241:35 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
15263+0=152361%0
PITPITPirates
Kuhl, Chad
Kuhl
14438+10=144539%7
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:05 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1528+24+0=155267%1
PITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
144220+10=143233%2
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:05 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Quintana, Jose
Quintana
152919+0=151057%2
PITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
1440+8+10=145843%3
9/21Monday, Sept. 217:05 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Lester, Jon
Lester
1527232=150257%5
PITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1442+1+10=145343%0
9/20Sunday, Sept. 207 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Berrios, Jose
Berrios
15491+0=154846%4
CHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1529+38+10=157754%0
9/19Saturday, Sept. 198:15 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pineda, Michael
Pineda
1547+5+0=155252%8
CHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
15323+10=153948%1
9/18Friday, Sept. 188:15 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Hill, Rich
Hill
154811=154648%0
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1531+18+12=156152%1
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 168:15 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Civale, Aaron
Civale
153013+0=151750%2
CHCCHCCubs
Lester, Jon
Lester
153023+10=151750%3
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 158:15 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Carrasco, Carlos
Carrasco
15319+0=152242%5
CHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1529+41+11=158158%6
9/13Sunday, Sept. 132:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
152511+0=151450%12
MILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
15082+10=151650%0
9/12Saturday, Sept. 127:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1524+18+0=154254%4
MILMILBrewers
Suter, Brent
Suter
15093+10=151646%2
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Lester, Jon
Lester
1525251=149944%0
MILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1508+24+10=154256%1
9/10Thursday, Sept. 108:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1507+20+0=152753%5
CHCCHCCubs
Alzolay, Adbert
Alzolay
152323+10=151047%8
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 98:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
1505+11+0=151641%3
CHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1525+45+10=158059%0
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 88:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
150619+0=148745%0
CHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
152414+10=152055%3
9/7Monday, Sept. 74 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Oviedo, Johan
Oviedo
152116+0=150544%1
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1522+17+10=154956%5
9/6Sunday, Sept. 67 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Hudson, Dakota
Hudson
151952=151250%7
CHCCHCCubs
Lester, Jon
Lester
152420+8=151250%3
9/5Saturday, Sept. 58:50 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Rea, Colin
Rea
1526212=150350%1
STLSTLCardinals
Gomber, Austin
Gomber
151723+8=150250%5
9/5Saturday, Sept. 55:15 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
1516+4+0=152051%4
CHCCHCCubs
Alzolay, Adbert
Alzolay
152722+10=151549%2
9/4Friday, Sept. 48:15 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1517+42+0=155948%1
CHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1526+40+8=157452%4
9/3Thursday, Sept. 31:35 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
152811+0=151757%2
PITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1454+1+10=146543%6
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:05 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1526+15+0=154159%8
PITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1456+13+10=147941%2
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:05 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Lester, Jon
Lester
152519+0=150655%8
PITPITPirates
Kuhl, Chad
Kuhl
1457+7+8=147245%7
8/30Sunday, Aug. 301:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Chatwood, Tyler
Chatwood
152224+0=149846%10
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1515+3+10=152854%1
8/29Saturday, Aug. 297:40 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
15234+0=151953%5
CINCINReds
Antone, Tejay
Antone
151428+10=149647%6
8/29Saturday, Aug. 294:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1521+37+0=155853%3
CINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
1515+9+10=153447%0
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1522+17+0=153957%5
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
151429+8=149343%6
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 267:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Lester, Jon
Lester
152421+0=150358%6
DETDETTigers
Fulmer, Michael
Fulmer
1435+0+10=144542%7
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 257:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Chatwood, Tyler
Chatwood
152723+0=150456%1
DETDETTigers
Turnbull, Spencer
Turnbull
1433+16+10=145944%7
8/24Monday, Aug. 247:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
152562=151760%9
DETDETTigers
Mize, Casey
Mize
1434+1+9=144440%3
8/23Sunday, Aug. 232:20 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Cease, Dylan
Cease
150818+0=149039%1
CHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1524+34+10=156861%2
8/22Saturday, Aug. 228:15 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Lopez, Reynaldo
Lopez
150616+0=149041%7
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1526+21+10=155759%4
8/21Friday, Aug. 218 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Keuchel, Dallas
Keuchel
1502+21=150347%10
CHCCHCCubs
Lester, Jon
Lester
152914+10=152553%1
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 196 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Alzolay, Adbert
Alzolay
1528332=149349%4
STLSTLCardinals
Oviedo, Johan
Oviedo
151520+8=150351%2
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 192:20 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1513+49+0=156253%9
CHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
1530+2+10=154247%3
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 188:15 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Ponce de Leon, Daniel
Ponce de Leon
1514112=150140%3
CHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1529+31+8=156860%6
8/17Monday, Aug. 178:02 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Miller, Tyson
Miller
1528242=150247%5
STLSTLCardinals
Reyes, Alex
Reyes
15154+8=151953%4
8/17Monday, Aug. 175:15 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Kim, Kwang-Hyun
Kim
1514211=149241%3
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1530+17+10=155759%1
8/16Sunday, Aug. 162:20 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Lindblom, Josh
Lindblom
15179+0=150847%6
CHCCHCCubs
Lester, Jon
Lester
153112+10=152953%5
8/15Saturday, Aug. 153:20 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
1516+17+0=153352%6
CHCCHCCubs
Rea, Colin
Rea
153226+10=151648%5
8/14Friday, Aug. 148:15 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1515+31+0=154650%4
CHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
1533+1+10=154450%3
8/13Thursday, Aug. 137:15 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
1516+11=151643%2
CHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1532+26+8=156657%4
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 126:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1530+16+0=154652%7
CLECLEIndians
Carrasco, Carlos
Carrasco
15328+10=153448%2
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Lester, Jon
Lester
152714+4=151752%7
CLECLEIndians
Plutko, Adam
Plutko
153544+10=150148%1
8/6Thursday, Aug. 67:07 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Chatwood, Tyler
Chatwood
153117+0=151457%2
KCKCRoyals
Keller, Brad
Keller
1441+14+10=146543%13
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 58:05 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1530+242=155265%6
KCKCRoyals
Bubic, Kris
Bubic
14426+8=144435%1
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 48:15 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Singer, Brady
Singer
14432+0=144134%4
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1530+14+10=155466%5
8/3Monday, Aug. 38:15 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Duffy, Danny
Duffy
1444+152=145739%0
CHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
15294+10=153561%2
8/2Sunday, Aug. 22:20 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
14644+0=146041%1
CHCCHCCubs
Lester, Jon
Lester
152817+10=152159%2
8/1Saturday, Aug. 18:15 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
14656+0=145942%3
CHCCHCCubs
Chatwood, Tyler
Chatwood
152720+10=151758%4
7/31Friday, July 318:15 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
14665+0=146136%3
CHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1526+23+10=155964%6
7/29Wednesday, July 296:40 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1528+23+0=155150%7
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1517+26+10=155350%12
7/28Tuesday, July 286:40 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
15265+0=152154%8
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
151933+10=149646%5
7/27Monday, July 276:40 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Lester, Jon
Lester
1525202=150350%8
CINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
152027+10=150350%7
7/26Sunday, July 262:20 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Peralta, Freddy
Peralta
15237+0=151651%1
CHCCHCCubs
Chatwood, Tyler
Chatwood
152224+10=150849%9
7/25Saturday, July 251:05 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Burnes, Corbin
Burnes
152036+0=148439%8
CHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1525+26+10=156161%3
7/24Friday, July 247 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1522+271=154849%0
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1524+18+10=155251%3

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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