2020 MLB Predictions

The Cubs are done for the season.

NL Central standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Cubs Cubs34-26	—	✓	✓
Reds Reds31-29	3.0	✓	—
Cardinals Cardinals30-28	3.0	✓	—
Brewers Brewers29-31	5.0	✓	—
Pirates Pirates19-41	15.0	—	—

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
10/2Friday, Oct. 22 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Sanchez	1472	+5	+2	=1479	33%	2
10/2Friday, Oct. 22 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Darvish	1521	+41	+12	=1574	67%	0
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 302 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1468	+17	+2	=1487	36%	5
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 302 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1525	+24	+14	=1563	64%	1
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Alzolay	1524	–26	+0	=1498	48%	10
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Lopez	1516	–15	+10	=1511	52%	8
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Lester	1525	–20	+0	=1505	48%	5
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Dunning	1514	–2	+10	=1522	52%	9
9/25Friday, Sept. 258 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Darvish	1523	+37	–2	=1558	57%	10
9/25Friday, Sept. 258 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Cease	1517	–19	+8	=1506	43%	0
9/24Thursday, Sept. 241:35 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Mills	1526	–3	+0	=1523	61%	0
9/24Thursday, Sept. 241:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kuhl	1443	–8	+10	=1445	39%	7
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1528	+24	+0	=1552	67%	1
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Williams	1442	–20	+10	=1432	33%	2
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Quintana	1529	–19	+0	=1510	57%	2
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brault	1440	+8	+10	=1458	43%	3
9/21Monday, Sept. 217:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Lester	1527	–23	–2	=1502	57%	5
9/21Monday, Sept. 217:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1442	+1	+10	=1453	43%	0
9/20Sunday, Sept. 207 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1549	–1	+0	=1548	46%	4
9/20Sunday, Sept. 207 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Darvish	1529	+38	+10	=1577	54%	0
9/19Saturday, Sept. 198:15 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Pineda	1547	+5	+0	=1552	52%	8
9/19Saturday, Sept. 198:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Mills	1532	–3	+10	=1539	48%	1
9/18Friday, Sept. 188:15 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Hill	1548	–1	–1	=1546	48%	0
9/18Friday, Sept. 188:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1531	+18	+12	=1561	52%	1
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 168:15 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Civale	1530	–13	+0	=1517	50%	2
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 168:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Lester	1530	–23	+10	=1517	50%	3
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 158:15 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Carrasco	1531	–9	+0	=1522	42%	5
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 158:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Darvish	1529	+41	+11	=1581	58%	6
9/13Sunday, Sept. 132:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Mills	1525	–11	+0	=1514	50%	12
9/13Sunday, Sept. 132:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1508	–2	+10	=1516	50%	0
9/12Saturday, Sept. 127:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1524	+18	+0	=1542	54%	4
9/12Saturday, Sept. 127:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Suter	1509	–3	+10	=1516	46%	2
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Lester	1525	–25	–1	=1499	44%	0
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1508	+24	+10	=1542	56%	1
9/10Thursday, Sept. 108:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gray	1507	+20	+0	=1527	53%	5
9/10Thursday, Sept. 108:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Alzolay	1523	–23	+10	=1510	47%	8
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 98:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Bauer	1505	+11	+0	=1516	41%	3
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 98:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Darvish	1525	+45	+10	=1580	59%	0
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 88:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1506	–19	+0	=1487	45%	0
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 88:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Mills	1524	–14	+10	=1520	55%	3
9/7Monday, Sept. 74 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Oviedo	1521	–16	+0	=1505	44%	1
9/7Monday, Sept. 74 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1522	+17	+10	=1549	56%	5
9/6Sunday, Sept. 67 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Hudson	1519	–5	–2	=1512	50%	7
9/6Sunday, Sept. 67 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Lester	1524	–20	+8	=1512	50%	3
9/5Saturday, Sept. 58:50 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Rea	1526	–21	–2	=1503	50%	1
9/5Saturday, Sept. 58:50 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Gomber	1517	–23	+8	=1502	50%	5
9/5Saturday, Sept. 55:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1516	+4	+0	=1520	51%	4
9/5Saturday, Sept. 55:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Alzolay	1527	–22	+10	=1515	49%	2
9/4Friday, Sept. 48:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Flaherty	1517	+42	+0	=1559	48%	1
9/4Friday, Sept. 48:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Darvish	1526	+40	+8	=1574	52%	4
9/3Thursday, Sept. 31:35 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Mills	1528	–11	+0	=1517	57%	2
9/3Thursday, Sept. 31:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1454	+1	+10	=1465	43%	6
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1526	+15	+0	=1541	59%	8
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Musgrove	1456	+13	+10	=1479	41%	2
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Lester	1525	–19	+0	=1506	55%	8
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kuhl	1457	+7	+8	=1472	45%	7
8/30Sunday, Aug. 301:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Chatwood	1522	–24	+0	=1498	46%	10
8/30Sunday, Aug. 301:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Castillo	1515	+3	+10	=1528	54%	1
8/29Saturday, Aug. 297:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Mills	1523	–4	+0	=1519	53%	5
8/29Saturday, Aug. 297:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Antone	1514	–28	+10	=1496	47%	6
8/29Saturday, Aug. 294:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Darvish	1521	+37	+0	=1558	53%	3
8/29Saturday, Aug. 294:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Bauer	1515	+9	+10	=1534	47%	0
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1522	+17	+0	=1539	57%	5
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1514	–29	+8	=1493	43%	6
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Lester	1524	–21	+0	=1503	58%	6
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Fulmer	1435	+0	+10	=1445	42%	7
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 257:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Chatwood	1527	–23	+0	=1504	56%	1
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 257:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Turnbull	1433	+16	+10	=1459	44%	7
8/24Monday, Aug. 247:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Mills	1525	–6	–2	=1517	60%	9
8/24Monday, Aug. 247:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Mize	1434	+1	+9	=1444	40%	3
8/23Sunday, Aug. 232:20 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Cease	1508	–18	+0	=1490	39%	1
8/23Sunday, Aug. 232:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Darvish	1524	+34	+10	=1568	61%	2
8/22Saturday, Aug. 228:15 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Lopez	1506	–16	+0	=1490	41%	7
8/22Saturday, Aug. 228:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1526	+21	+10	=1557	59%	4
8/21Friday, Aug. 218 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Keuchel	1502	+2	–1	=1503	47%	10
8/21Friday, Aug. 218 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Lester	1529	–14	+10	=1525	53%	1
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 196 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Alzolay	1528	–33	–2	=1493	49%	4
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 196 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Oviedo	1515	–20	+8	=1503	51%	2
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 192:20 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Flaherty	1513	+49	+0	=1562	53%	9
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 192:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Mills	1530	+2	+10	=1542	47%	3
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 188:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Ponce de Leon	1514	–11	–2	=1501	40%	3
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 188:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Darvish	1529	+31	+8	=1568	60%	6
8/17Monday, Aug. 178:02 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Miller	1528	–24	–2	=1502	47%	5
8/17Monday, Aug. 178:02 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Reyes	1515	–4	+8	=1519	53%	4
8/17Monday, Aug. 175:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Kim	1514	–21	–1	=1492	41%	3
8/17Monday, Aug. 175:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1530	+17	+10	=1557	59%	1
8/16Sunday, Aug. 162:20 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lindblom	1517	–9	+0	=1508	47%	6
8/16Sunday, Aug. 162:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Lester	1531	–12	+10	=1529	53%	5
8/15Saturday, Aug. 153:20 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1516	+17	+0	=1533	52%	6
8/15Saturday, Aug. 153:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Rea	1532	–26	+10	=1516	48%	5
8/14Friday, Aug. 148:15 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1515	+31	+0	=1546	50%	4
8/14Friday, Aug. 148:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Mills	1533	+1	+10	=1544	50%	3
8/13Thursday, Aug. 137:15 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Anderson	1516	+1	–1	=1516	43%	2
8/13Thursday, Aug. 137:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Darvish	1532	+26	+8	=1566	57%	4
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 126:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1530	+16	+0	=1546	52%	7
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 126:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Carrasco	1532	–8	+10	=1534	48%	2
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Lester	1527	–14	+4	=1517	52%	7
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Plutko	1535	–44	+10	=1501	48%	1
8/6Thursday, Aug. 67:07 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Chatwood	1531	–17	+0	=1514	57%	2
8/6Thursday, Aug. 67:07 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1441	+14	+10	=1465	43%	13
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 58:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Darvish	1530	+24	–2	=1552	65%	6
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 58:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Bubic	1442	–6	+8	=1444	35%	1
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 48:15 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Singer	1443	–2	+0	=1441	34%	4
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 48:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1530	+14	+10	=1554	66%	5
8/3Monday, Aug. 38:15 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Duffy	1444	+15	–2	=1457	39%	0
8/3Monday, Aug. 38:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Mills	1529	–4	+10	=1535	61%	2
8/2Sunday, Aug. 22:20 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brault	1464	–4	+0	=1460	41%	1
8/2Sunday, Aug. 22:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Lester	1528	–17	+10	=1521	59%	2
8/1Saturday, Aug. 18:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1465	–6	+0	=1459	42%	3
8/1Saturday, Aug. 18:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Chatwood	1527	–20	+10	=1517	58%	4
7/31Friday, July 318:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Williams	1466	–5	+0	=1461	36%	3
7/31Friday, July 318:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Darvish	1526	+23	+10	=1559	64%	6
7/29Wednesday, July 296:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1528	+23	+0	=1551	50%	7
7/29Wednesday, July 296:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gray	1517	+26	+10	=1553	50%	12
7/28Tuesday, July 286:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Mills	1526	–5	+0	=1521	54%	8
7/28Tuesday, July 286:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1519	–33	+10	=1496	46%	5
7/27Monday, July 276:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Lester	1525	–20	–2	=1503	50%	8
7/27Monday, July 276:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Miley	1520	–27	+10	=1503	50%	7
7/26Sunday, July 262:20 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1523	–7	+0	=1516	51%	1
7/26Sunday, July 262:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Chatwood	1522	–24	+10	=1508	49%	9
7/25Saturday, July 251:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1520	–36	+0	=1484	39%	8
7/25Saturday, July 251:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Darvish	1525	+26	+10	=1561	61%	3
7/24Friday, July 247 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1522	+27	–1	=1548	49%	0
7/24Friday, July 247 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1524	+18	+10	=1552	51%	3

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

NL Central standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Comments

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

NL Central standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Related Stories

Comments