Updated Oct. 26, 2020 at 12:57 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Indians are done for the season.

AL Central standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
TwinsTwins36-24
IndiansIndians35-251.0
White SoxWhite Sox35-251.0
RoyalsRoyals26-3410.0
TigersTigers23-3512.0

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 307 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Tanaka, Masahiro
Tanaka
15618+0=155353%10
CLECLEIndians
Carrasco, Carlos
Carrasco
15301+10=153947%9
9/29Tuesday, Sept. 297 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1557+44+0=160155%12
CLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1534+29+12=157545%3
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1450+4+0=145444%6
CLECLEIndians
Quantrill, Cal
Quantrill
153349+10=149456%8
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1446+17+0=146341%8
CLECLEIndians
Civale, Aaron
Civale
153618+10=152859%0
9/25Friday, Sept. 257:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
144752=144036%3
CLECLEIndians
Carrasco, Carlos
Carrasco
15366+10=154064%4
9/24Thursday, Sept. 246:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Keuchel, Dallas
Keuchel
1518+9+0=152749%4
CLECLEIndians
Plesac, Zach
Plesac
153511+10=153451%5
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Giolito, Lucas
Giolito
1519+33+0=155248%2
CLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1534+25+10=156952%3
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 226:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Lopez, Reynaldo
Lopez
152018+0=150252%3
CLECLEIndians
Quantrill, Cal
Quantrill
153255+10=148748%5
9/21Monday, Sept. 216:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Dunning, Dane
Dunning
1522+32=152350%4
CLECLEIndians
Civale, Aaron
Civale
153115+9=152550%7
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Carrasco, Carlos
Carrasco
152910+0=151960%7
DETDETTigers
Boyd, Matthew
Boyd
14381+10=144740%4
9/19Saturday, Sept. 196:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
McKenzie, Triston
McKenzie
153133+0=149855%2
DETDETTigers
Turnbull, Spencer
Turnbull
1437+14+10=146145%5
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Plesac, Zach
Plesac
153115+0=151661%1
DETDETTigers
Fulmer, Michael
Fulmer
14377+10=144039%0
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1529+272=155464%10
DETDETTigers
Mize, Casey
Mize
1439+4+10=145336%3
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 168:15 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Civale, Aaron
Civale
153013+0=151750%2
CHCCHCCubs
Lester, Jon
Lester
153023+10=151750%3
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 158:15 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Carrasco, Carlos
Carrasco
15319+0=152242%5
CHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1529+41+11=158158%6
9/13Sunday, Sept. 132:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
McKenzie, Triston
McKenzie
153229+0=150341%5
MINMINTwins
Pineda, Michael
Pineda
1549+7+10=156659%7
9/12Saturday, Sept. 128:07 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Plesac, Zach
Plesac
153314+0=151945%4
MINMINTwins
Hill, Rich
Hill
15482+10=155655%8
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1535+263=155848%1
MINMINTwins
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
1547+15+13=157552%3
9/10Thursday, Sept. 106:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Singer, Brady
Singer
14445+0=143936%11
CLECLEIndians
Civale, Aaron
Civale
153913+10=153664%1
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 96:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Duffy, Danny
Duffy
1442+14+0=145638%3
CLECLEIndians
Carrasco, Carlos
Carrasco
154112+10=153962%0
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 86:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Junis, Jakob
Junis
1440+0+0=144039%8
CLECLEIndians
McKenzie, Triston
McKenzie
154331+10=152261%6
9/7Monday, Sept. 76:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Keller, Brad
Keller
1441+263=146440%2
CLECLEIndians
Plesac, Zach
Plesac
154216+10=153660%5
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
1508+2+0=151041%1
CLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1540+25+10=157559%4
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1509+27+0=153650%3
CLECLEIndians
Civale, Aaron
Civale
153912+10=153750%4
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Burnes, Corbin
Burnes
15065+0=150145%7
CLECLEIndians
Carrasco, Carlos
Carrasco
154213+9=153855%1
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 28:05 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
McKenzie, Triston
McKenzie
154040+0=150056%5
KCKCRoyals
Junis, Jakob
Junis
14491+10=145844%0
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 18:05 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Plesac, Zach
Plesac
153817+0=152162%10
KCKCRoyals
Harvey, Matt
Harvey
145124+10=143738%1
8/31Monday, Aug. 318:05 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1540+252=156362%1
KCKCRoyals
Keller, Brad
Keller
1450+20+8=147838%2
8/30Sunday, Aug. 302:15 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Civale, Aaron
Civale
15427+0=153552%2
STLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
1510+1+10=152148%7
8/29Saturday, Aug. 291:15 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Carrasco, Carlos
Carrasco
154116+0=152544%2
STLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1511+46+10=156756%1
8/28Friday, Aug. 288:15 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
McKenzie, Triston
McKenzie
153738+0=149949%14
STLSTLCardinals
Ponce de Leon, Daniel
Ponce de Leon
151515+10=151051%2
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 267:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Berrios, Jose
Berrios
15522+0=155049%3
CLECLEIndians
Clevinger, Mike
Clevinger
1535+14+10=155951%6
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 257:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Hill, Rich
Hill
15531+0=155248%2
CLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1534+23+10=156752%4
8/24Monday, Aug. 247:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
1552+143=156354%3
CLECLEIndians
Civale, Aaron
Civale
15356+10=153946%2
8/23Sunday, Aug. 231:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Skubal, Tarik
Skubal
14327+0=142535%7
CLECLEIndians
Carrasco, Carlos
Carrasco
153711+10=153665%4
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Boyd, Matthew
Boyd
14344+0=143040%1
CLECLEIndians
McKenzie, Triston
McKenzie
153647+10=149960%6
8/21Friday, Aug. 217:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Fulmer, Michael
Fulmer
1431+42=143340%10
CLECLEIndians
Plutko, Adam
Plutko
153845+8=150160%5
8/20Thursday, Aug. 207:05 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1537+19+0=155663%2
PITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
1453+1+10=146437%0
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 197:05 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Civale, Aaron
Civale
153514+0=152158%6
PITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
1455+2+10=146742%1
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:05 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Carrasco, Carlos
Carrasco
15349+0=152558%6
PITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
14563+15=146842%3
8/16Sunday, Aug. 161 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Plutko, Adam
Plutko
153342+0=149155%8
DETDETTigers
Fulmer, Michael
Fulmer
1439+5+10=145445%5
8/15Saturday, Aug. 156:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1532+15+0=154761%3
DETDETTigers
Turnbull, Spencer
Turnbull
1440+19+10=146939%1
8/14Friday, Aug. 147:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Civale, Aaron
Civale
153011+1=152060%10
DETDETTigers
Nova, Ivan
Nova
14422+12=145240%5
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 126:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1530+16+0=154652%7
CLECLEIndians
Carrasco, Carlos
Carrasco
15328+10=153448%2
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Lester, Jon
Lester
152714+4=151752%7
CLECLEIndians
Plutko, Adam
Plutko
153544+10=150148%1
8/9Sunday, Aug. 97 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1534+15+0=154952%5
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Giolito, Lucas
Giolito
1497+29+10=153648%4
8/8Saturday, Aug. 82:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Plesac, Zach
Plesac
153123+0=150852%7
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Foster, Matt
Foster
150013+10=149748%1
8/7Friday, Aug. 78:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Civale, Aaron
Civale
1533162=151553%0
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Cease, Dylan
Cease
149817+10=149147%2
8/6Thursday, Aug. 66:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1518+6+0=152449%0
CLECLEIndians
Carrasco, Carlos
Carrasco
152910+10=152951%13
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 57:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Antone, Tejay
Antone
1519332=148441%0
CLECLEIndians
Clevinger, Mike
Clevinger
1528+12+8=154859%2
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 46:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1527+17+0=154457%4
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
152034+10=149643%2
8/3Monday, Aug. 36:40 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Plesac, Zach
Plesac
1527233=150142%2
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1519+28+8=155558%3
8/2Sunday, Aug. 22:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Civale, Aaron
Civale
152919+0=151047%1
MINMINTwins
Clippard, Tyler
Clippard
155128+10=153353%3
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Carrasco, Carlos
Carrasco
15308+0=152245%0
MINMINTwins
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
15491+10=155855%3
7/31Friday, July 318:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Clevinger, Mike
Clevinger
1532+18+0=155051%1
MINMINTwins
Dobnak, Randy
Dobnak
154812+10=154649%4
7/30Thursday, July 307:07 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1530+93=153647%2
MINMINTwins
Berrios, Jose
Berrios
15494+10=155553%0
7/29Wednesday, July 296:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Giolito, Lucas
Giolito
1491+27+0=151851%4
CLECLEIndians
Plesac, Zach
Plesac
153229+10=151349%0
7/28Tuesday, July 287:45 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Rodon, Carlos
Rodon
1493+2+0=149549%3
CLECLEIndians
Plutko, Adam
Plutko
153141+10=150051%5
7/28Tuesday, July 283:40 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Cease, Dylan
Cease
149414+0=148044%3
CLECLEIndians
Civale, Aaron
Civale
153019+12=152356%4
7/26Sunday, July 261:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Bolanos, Ronald
Bolanos
144913+0=143637%2
CLECLEIndians
Carrasco, Carlos
Carrasco
15288+10=153063%9
7/25Saturday, July 255:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Singer, Brady
Singer
14477+0=144033%3
CLECLEIndians
Clevinger, Mike
Clevinger
1530+21+10=156167%2
7/24Friday, July 247:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Duffy, Danny
Duffy
1448+113=145637%0
CLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1529+7+10=154663%2

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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