Updated Aug. 8, 2020 at 1:27 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Indians have an 88% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1531, up 1 point from last week.

AL Central standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
TwinsTwins10-498%68%
IndiansIndians8-72.588%20%
White SoxWhite Sox8-62.077%11%
TigersTigers6-52.519%1%
RoyalsRoyals5-105.59%<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/8Saturday, Aug. 82:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Plesac, Zach
Plesac
153123+0=150852%
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Foster, Matt
Foster
150013+10=149748%
8/9Sunday, Aug. 97 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1531+15+0=154651%
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Giolito, Lucas
Giolito
1500+29+10=153949%
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Lester, Jon
Lester
152714+4=151745%
CLECLEIndians
Clevinger, Mike
Clevinger
1531+11+10=155255%
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 126:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
1527+4+0=153150%
CLECLEIndians
Carrasco, Carlos
Carrasco
15317+10=153450%
8/14Friday, Aug. 147:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Civale, Aaron
Civale
153111+1=152160%
DETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+10=145040%
8/15Saturday, Aug. 156:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Plesac, Zach
Plesac
153123+0=150858%
DETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+10=145042%
8/16Sunday, Aug. 161 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1531+15+0=154664%
DETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+10=145036%
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:05 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Clevinger, Mike
Clevinger
1531+11+0=154260%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+10=147040%
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 197:05 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+0=153059%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+10=147041%
8/20Thursday, Aug. 207:05 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+0=153059%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+10=147041%
8/21Friday, Aug. 217:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+12=143836%
CLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+8=153864%
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+0=144036%
CLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+10=154064%
8/23Sunday, Aug. 231:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+0=144036%
CLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+10=154064%
8/24Monday, Aug. 247:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+03=154951%
CLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+10=154049%
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 257:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+0=155252%
CLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+10=154048%
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 267:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+0=155252%
CLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+10=154048%
8/28Friday, Aug. 288:15 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+0=153051%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+12=152449%
8/29Saturday, Aug. 291:15 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+0=153051%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+10=152249%
8/30Sunday, Aug. 302:15 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+0=153051%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+10=152249%
8/31Monday, Aug. 318:05 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
153112=152860%
KCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+8=145540%
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 18:05 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+0=153060%
KCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+10=145740%
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 28:05 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+0=153060%
KCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+10=145740%
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+0=151947%
CLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+9=153953%
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+0=151947%
CLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+10=154053%
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+0=151947%
CLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+10=154053%
9/7Monday, Sept. 76:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+13=144437%
CLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+10=154063%
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 86:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+0=144737%
CLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+10=154063%
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 96:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+0=144737%
CLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+10=154063%
9/10Thursday, Sept. 106:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+0=144737%
CLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+10=154063%
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
153113=152745%
MINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+10=156255%
9/12Saturday, Sept. 128:15 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+0=153045%
MINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+10=156255%
9/13Sunday, Sept. 134:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+0=153045%
MINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+10=156255%
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 158:15 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+0=153049%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+11=153851%
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 168:15 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+0=153049%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+10=153751%
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
153112=152861%
DETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+10=145039%
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+0=153062%
DETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+10=145038%
9/19Saturday, Sept. 196:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+0=153062%
DETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+10=145038%
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+0=153062%
DETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+10=145038%
9/21Monday, Sept. 216:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1500+02=149844%
CLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+9=153956%
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 226:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1500+0+0=150044%
CLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+10=154056%
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1500+0+0=150044%
CLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+10=154056%
9/24Thursday, Sept. 246:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1500+0+0=150044%
CLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+10=154056%
9/25Friday, Sept. 257:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+02=145838%
CLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+10=154062%
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+0=146039%
CLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+10=154061%
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+0=146039%
CLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+10=154061%

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/7Friday, Aug. 78:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Civale, Aaron
Civale
1533162=151553%0
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Cease, Dylan
Cease
149817+10=149147%2
8/6Thursday, Aug. 66:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1518+6+0=152449%0
CLECLEIndians
Carrasco, Carlos
Carrasco
152910+10=152951%13
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 57:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Antone, Tejay
Antone
1519332=148441%0
CLECLEIndians
Clevinger, Mike
Clevinger
1528+12+8=154859%2
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 46:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1527+17+0=154457%4
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
152034+10=149643%2
8/3Monday, Aug. 36:40 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Plesac, Zach
Plesac
1527233=150142%2
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1519+28+8=155558%3
8/2Sunday, Aug. 22:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Civale, Aaron
Civale
152919+0=151047%1
MINMINTwins
Clippard, Tyler
Clippard
155128+10=153353%3
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Carrasco, Carlos
Carrasco
15308+0=152245%0
MINMINTwins
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
15491+10=155855%3
7/31Friday, July 318:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Clevinger, Mike
Clevinger
1532+18+0=155051%1
MINMINTwins
Dobnak, Randy
Dobnak
154812+10=154649%4
7/30Thursday, July 307:07 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1530+93=153647%2
MINMINTwins
Berrios, Jose
Berrios
15494+10=155553%0
7/29Wednesday, July 296:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Giolito, Lucas
Giolito
1491+27+0=151851%4
CLECLEIndians
Plesac, Zach
Plesac
153229+10=151349%0
7/28Tuesday, July 287:45 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Rodon, Carlos
Rodon
1493+2+0=149549%3
CLECLEIndians
Plutko, Adam
Plutko
153141+10=150051%5
7/28Tuesday, July 283:40 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Cease, Dylan
Cease
149414+0=148044%3
CLECLEIndians
Civale, Aaron
Civale
153019+12=152356%4
7/26Sunday, July 261:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Bolanos, Ronald
Bolanos
144913+0=143637%2
CLECLEIndians
Carrasco, Carlos
Carrasco
15288+10=153063%9
7/25Saturday, July 255:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Singer, Brady
Singer
14477+0=144033%3
CLECLEIndians
Clevinger, Mike
Clevinger
1530+21+10=156167%2
7/24Friday, July 247:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Duffy, Danny
Duffy
1448+113=145637%0
CLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1529+7+10=154663%2

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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