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UPDATED May 22, 2022, at 4:59 PM

2022 WNBA Predictions

Updated after every game.

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The Phoenix Mercury have a 4%
 chance of winning the WNBA Finals
73%

chance of making the playoffs
11%

chance of making the Finals
4%

chance of winning the Finals
Probabilities by final position
make playoffs
miss playoffs
Team rating
Mercury Elo over the 2022 WNBA season, along with the top and bottom team Elo ratings
Historical team rating
Mercury Elo rating after every game since {year}

Upcoming games


Wednesday, May 25

10:30 p.m. Easternelo spreadwin prob.
Mercury43%
Sparks-1.557%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
417759

Sunday, May 29

12 p.m.elo spreadwin prob.
Mercury46%
Dream-154%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
347554

Tuesday, May 31

8 p.m.elo spreadwin prob.
Mercury28%
Sky-672%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
762450

Completed games


Saturday, May 21

FINALelo spreadwin prob.score
Mercury26%80
Aces-6.574%100

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
842454

Thursday, May 19

FINALelo spreadwin prob.score
Wings29%94
Mercury-5.571%84

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
495552

Tuesday, May 17

FINALelo spreadwin prob.score
Mercury31%74
Aces-569%86

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
881451
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