Updated Oct. 21, 2018 at 4:13 AM

2018 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

Chance of making …
Team
Division
Team rating
1-week change
Div. SeriesMake Div. Series
League champ.Make league champ.
World SeriesMake W.S.
Win World SeriesWin W.S.
AL East1600
+15
61%
NL West1582
-1
39%
AL West1598
-16
NL Central1561
+1
AL East1565
NL West1526
AL Central1545
NL East1515
AL West1562
NL Central1543
AL East1543
AL West1513
NL Central1535
NL East1526
NL Central1503
NL West1510
NL East1472
AL West1505
AL Central1493
NL East1498
AL East1470
NL West1466
NL Central1452
AL West1470
NL West1451
AL Central1428
NL East1430
AL Central1434
AL Central1438
AL East1415
Forecast from

Upcoming games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
10/23Tuesday, Oct. 238:09 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1582+9+2=159334%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Sale, Chris
Sale
1600+50+27=167766%
10/24Wednesday, Oct. 248:09 p.m.LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1582+3+0=158543%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
16001+24=162357%
10/26Friday, Oct. 268:09 p.m.BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
160012=159747%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1582+8+22=161253%
10/27Saturday, Oct. 278:09 p.m.BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
16001+0=159947%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1582+8+24=161453%
10/28Sunday, Oct. 288:15 p.m.BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
1600+12+0=161250%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1582+8+24=161450%
10/30Tuesday, Oct. 308:09 p.m.LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1582+82=158841%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
1600+12+22=163459%
10/31Wednesday, Oct. 318:09 p.m.LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1582+8+0=159041%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
1600+12+24=163659%

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
10/20Saturday, Oct. 208:09 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1578+20+0=159849%5
MILMILBrewers
Chacin, Jhoulys
Chacin
1565+14+24=160351%1
10/19Friday, Oct. 198:39 p.m.LADLADDodgers
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
158242=157649%2
MILMILBrewers
Miley, Wade
Miley
15613+22=158051%7
10/18Thursday, Oct. 188:09 p.m.BOSBOSRed Sox
Price, David
Price
1596+5+0=160140%4
HOUHOUAstros
Verlander, Justin
Verlander
1602+29+24=165560%1
10/17Wednesday, Oct. 178:39 p.m.BOSBOSRed Sox
Porcello, Rick
Porcello
15936+0=158743%8
HOUHOUAstros
Morton, Charlie
Morton
16067+24=162357%6
10/17Wednesday, Oct. 175:05 p.m.MILMILBrewers
Miley, Wade
Miley
15632+0=156140%2
LADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1580+10+24=161460%5
10/16Tuesday, Oct. 169:09 p.m.MILMILBrewers
Gonzalez, Gio
Gonzalez
156513+0=155240%1
LADLADDodgers
Hill, Rich
Hill
1578+3+24=160560%2
10/16Tuesday, Oct. 165:09 p.m.BOSBOSRed Sox
Eovaldi, Nathan
Eovaldi
158712=158445%8
HOUHOUAstros
Keuchel, Dallas
Keuchel
161120+22=161355%2
10/15Monday, Oct. 157:39 p.m.MILMILBrewers
Chacin, Jhoulys
Chacin
1560+112=156939%4
LADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1583+21+22=162661%0
10/14Sunday, Oct. 147:09 p.m.HOUHOUAstros
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1614+14+0=162853%5
BOSBOSRed Sox
Price, David
Price
1585+6+24=161547%7
10/13Saturday, Oct. 138:09 p.m.HOUHOUAstros
Verlander, Justin
Verlander
1609+27+4=164044%7
BOSBOSRed Sox
Sale, Chris
Sale
1590+52+29=167156%2
10/13Saturday, Oct. 134:09 p.m.LADLADDodgers
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
15812+0=157950%4
MILMILBrewers
Miley, Wade
Miley
15627+24=157950%3
10/12Friday, Oct. 128:09 p.m.LADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1584+16+4=160455%5
MILMILBrewers
Gonzalez, Gio
Gonzalez
156011+28=157745%6
10/9Tuesday, Oct. 98:07 p.m.BOSBOSRed Sox
Porcello, Rick
Porcello
15879+0=157848%4
NYYNYYYankees
Sabathia, CC
Sabathia
15672+24=158952%3
10/8Monday, Oct. 87:40 p.m.BOSBOSRed Sox
Eovaldi, Nathan
Eovaldi
15775+0=157241%16
NYYNYYYankees
Severino, Luis
Severino
1578+15+24=161759%1
10/8Monday, Oct. 84:30 p.m.LADLADDodgers
Hill, Rich
Hill
1580+4+0=158456%6
ATLATLBraves
Foltynewicz, Mike
Foltynewicz
1518+12+24=155444%2
10/8Monday, Oct. 81:30 p.m.HOUHOUAstros
Keuchel, Dallas
Keuchel
1603211=158150%11
CLECLEIndians
Clevinger, Mike
Clevinger
1551+7+23=158150%3
10/7Sunday, Oct. 78:07 p.m.LADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1583+222=160365%5
ATLATLBraves
Newcomb, Sean
Newcomb
151613+22=152535%6
10/7Sunday, Oct. 74:37 p.m.MILMILBrewers
Miley, Wade
Miley
1554101=154344%6
COLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1531+19+23=157356%0
10/6Saturday, Oct. 68:15 p.m.NYYNYYYankees
Tanaka, Masahiro
Tanaka
1573+15+0=158844%6
BOSBOSRed Sox
Price, David
Price
1581+13+24=161856%2
10/6Saturday, Oct. 64:37 p.m.CLECLEIndians
Carrasco, Carlos
Carrasco
1553+15+0=156837%1
HOUHOUAstros
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1601+11+24=163663%3
10/5Friday, Oct. 59:37 p.m.ATLATLBraves
Sanchez, Anibal
Sanchez
1517+4+0=152133%0
LADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1581+11+24=161667%3
10/5Friday, Oct. 57:32 p.m.NYYNYYYankees
Happ, J.A.
Happ
1575+10+0=158535%4
BOSBOSRed Sox
Sale, Chris
Sale
1580+53+31=166465%5
10/5Friday, Oct. 54:15 p.m.COLCOLRockies
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
15346+0=152839%0
MILMILBrewers
Chacin, Jhoulys
Chacin
1551+12+24=158761%4
10/5Friday, Oct. 52:05 p.m.CLECLEIndians
Kluber, Corey
Kluber
1555+16+4=157535%2
HOUHOUAstros
Verlander, Justin
Verlander
1599+28+28=165565%7
10/4Thursday, Oct. 48:37 p.m.ATLATLBraves
Foltynewicz, Mike
Foltynewicz
1521+16+3=154039%0
LADLADDodgers
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
15787+29=160061%6
10/4Thursday, Oct. 45:07 p.m.COLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
153619+1=151842%2
MILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
155018+28=156058%3
10/3Wednesday, Oct. 38:08 p.m.OAKOAKAthletics
Hendriks, Liam
Hendriks
15665+1=156241%2
NYYNYYYankees
Severino, Luis
Severino
1571+13+27=161159%7
10/2Tuesday, Oct. 28 p.m.COLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
1533+174=154646%2
CHCCHCCubs
Lester, Jon
Lester
15454+24=156554%1
10/1Monday, Oct. 14 p.m.COLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1535+233=155541%2
LADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1576+23+22=162159%5
10/1Monday, Oct. 11 p.m.MILMILBrewers
Chacin, Jhoulys
Chacin
1548+111=155848%3
CHCCHCCubs
Quintana, Jose
Quintana
1547+0+24=157152%1
9/30Sunday, Sept. 303:20 p.m.STLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1538+12+0=155048%5
CHCCHCCubs
Montgomery, Mike
Montgomery
15448+24=156052%10
9/30Sunday, Sept. 303:15 p.m.CLECLEIndians
Carrasco, Carlos
Carrasco
1555+14+0=156966%2
KCKCRoyals
Skoglund, Eric
Skoglund
143913+24=145034%1
9/30Sunday, Sept. 303:10 p.m.TORTORBlue Jays
Gaviglio, Sam
Gaviglio
147210+0=146238%4
TBTBRays
Stanek, Ryne
Stanek
154120+24=154562%9
9/30Sunday, Sept. 303:10 p.m.TEXTEXRangers
Gallardo, Yovani
Gallardo
147214+0=145841%1
SEASEAMariners
Elias, Roenis
Elias
151213+24=152359%3
9/30Sunday, Sept. 303:10 p.m.ARIARIDiamondbacks
Ray, Robbie
Ray
1512+5+0=151754%3
SDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
1449+13+24=148646%4
9/30Sunday, Sept. 303:10 p.m.MIAMIAMarlins
Alcantara, Sandy
Alcantara
143110+0=142135%0
NYMNYMMets
Syndergaard, Noah
Syndergaard
1497+8+24=152965%1
9/30Sunday, Sept. 303:10 p.m.CHWCHWWhite Sox
Covey, Dylan
Covey
143513+0=142239%4
MINMINTwins
Littell, Zack
Littell
149218+24=149861%5
9/30Sunday, Sept. 303:10 p.m.DETDETTigers
Turnbull, Spencer
Turnbull
1430+1+0=143133%0
MILMILBrewers
Gonzalez, Gio
Gonzalez
154512+24=155767%11
9/30Sunday, Sept. 303:10 p.m.WSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
153028+0=150244%0
COLCOLRockies
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
153111+24=154456%12
9/30Sunday, Sept. 303:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
Holmes, Clay
Holmes
150229+0=147350%6
CINCINReds
Romano, Sal
Romano
14537+24=147050%5
9/30Sunday, Sept. 303:07 p.m.OAKOAKAthletics
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
156710+0=155753%4
LAALAAAngels
Shoemaker, Matt
Shoemaker
1503+10+24=153747%5
9/30Sunday, Sept. 303:05 p.m.LADLADDodgers
Hill, Rich
Hill
1572+3+0=157561%15
SFSFGiants
Suarez, Andrew
Suarez
1470+0+24=149439%0
9/30Sunday, Sept. 303:05 p.m.ATLATLBraves
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
15232+0=152159%1
PHIPHIPhillies
Suarez, Ranger
Suarez
147033+24=146141%3
9/30Sunday, Sept. 303:05 p.m.NYYNYYYankees
Cessa, Luis
Cessa
157525+0=155044%2
BOSBOSRed Sox
Porcello, Rick
Porcello
157710+24=159156%10
9/30Sunday, Sept. 303:05 p.m.HOUHOUAstros
Morton, Charlie
Morton
16036+0=159771%0
BALBALOrioles
Yacabonis, Jimmy
Yacabonis
1411+8+24=144329%4
9/29Saturday, Sept. 299:10 p.m.TEXTEXRangers
Sampson, Adrian
Sampson
1473+2+0=147538%1
SEASEAMariners
Paxton, James
Paxton
1510+26+24=156062%4
9/29Saturday, Sept. 299:07 p.m.OAKOAKAthletics
Cahill, Trevor
Cahill
15652+0=156355%5
LAALAAAngels
Skaggs, Tyler
Skaggs
1505+1+24=153045%2
9/29Saturday, Sept. 298:40 p.m.ARIARIDiamondbacks
Godley, Zack
Godley
151118+0=149354%5
SDSDPadres
Nix, Jacob
Nix
145110+24=146546%4
9/29Saturday, Sept. 298:10 p.m.WSHWSHNationals
Strasburg, Stephen
Strasburg
1525+23+0=154850%12
COLCOLRockies
Gray, Jon
Gray
15358+24=155150%2
9/29Saturday, Sept. 297:15 p.m.CLECLEIndians
Kluber, Corey
Kluber
1559+18+0=157766%4
KCKCRoyals
Junis, Jakob
Junis
1435+6+24=146534%9
9/29Saturday, Sept. 297:10 p.m.MIAMIAMarlins
Richards, Trevor
Richards
1432+2+0=143441%0
NYMNYMMets
Matz, Steven
Matz
149624+24=149659%1
9/29Saturday, Sept. 297:10 p.m.CHWCHWWhite Sox
Rodon, Carlos
Rodon
1437+22+0=145941%3
MINMINTwins
Gibson, Kyle
Gibson
1490+11+24=152559%8
9/29Saturday, Sept. 297:10 p.m.DETDETTigers
Norris, Daniel
Norris
1431+1+0=143232%5
MILMILBrewers
Miley, Wade
Miley
15447+24=156168%6
9/29Saturday, Sept. 297:05 p.m.ATLATLBraves
Sanchez, Anibal
Sanchez
1525+0+0=152549%0
PHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1467+44+24=153551%3
9/29Saturday, Sept. 297:05 p.m.HOUHOUAstros
Keuchel, Dallas
Keuchel
160218+0=158471%5
BALBALOrioles
Ramirez, Yefry
Ramirez
14126+24=143029%2
9/29Saturday, Sept. 296:10 p.m.TORTORBlue Jays
Borucki, Ryan
Borucki
1473+17+0=149033%3
TBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1540+48+24=161267%4
9/29Saturday, Sept. 294:05 p.m.LADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1570+18+0=158860%10
SFSFGiants
Rodriguez, Dereck
Rodriguez
1472+23+24=151940%6
9/29Saturday, Sept. 294:05 p.m.HOUHOUAstros
Verlander, Justin
Verlander
1601+25+0=162675%4
BALBALOrioles
Bundy, Dylan
Bundy
1413+0+24=143725%3
9/29Saturday, Sept. 294 p.m.PITPITPirates
Taillon, Jameson
Taillon
1504+25+0=152959%0
CINCINReds
Lorenzen, Michael
Lorenzen
14505+24=146941%3
9/29Saturday, Sept. 291:05 p.m.STLSTLCardinals
Mikolas, Miles
Mikolas
1536+14+0=155047%2
CHCCHCCubs
Hamels, Cole
Hamels
1546+5+24=157553%1
9/29Saturday, Sept. 291:05 p.m.NYYNYYYankees
German, Domingo
German
157228+0=154443%8
BOSBOSRed Sox
Eovaldi, Nathan
Eovaldi
15797+24=159657%5
9/28Friday, Sept. 2810:15 p.m.LADLADDodgers
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
156861=156156%3
SFSFGiants
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
1474+20+26=152044%1
9/28Friday, Sept. 2810:10 p.m.TEXTEXRangers
Perez, Martin
Perez
147612+0=146440%6
SEASEAMariners
LeBlanc, Wade
LeBlanc
1508+5+24=153760%12
9/28Friday, Sept. 2810:10 p.m.ARIARIDiamondbacks
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
1512+19+0=153157%2
SDSDPadres
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
1449+6+24=147943%3
9/28Friday, Sept. 2810:07 p.m.OAKOAKAthletics
Fiers, Mike
Fiers
1568+151=158257%5
LAALAAAngels
Barria, Jaime
Barria
1503+6+26=153543%8
9/28Friday, Sept. 288:10 p.m.CHWCHWWhite Sox
Giolito, Lucas
Giolito
14417+0=143442%4
MINMINTwins
De Jong, Chase
De Jong
148722+24=148958%12
9/28Friday, Sept. 288:10 p.m.DETDETTigers
Zimmermann, Jordan
Zimmermann
143252=142531%5
MILMILBrewers
Davies, Zach
Davies
15445+24=156369%6
9/28Friday, Sept. 288:10 p.m.WSHWSHNationals
Ross, Joe
Ross
1527182=150741%2
COLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
1534+17+24=157559%5
9/28Friday, Sept. 288 p.m.CLECLEIndians
Clevinger, Mike
Clevinger
1556+2+0=155864%14
KCKCRoyals
Kennedy, Ian
Kennedy
14373+24=145836%6
9/28Friday, Sept. 287:10 p.m.TORTORBlue Jays
Pannone, Thomas
Pannone
1471+31=147341%7
TBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
154228+24=153859%6
9/28Friday, Sept. 287:10 p.m.MIAMIAMarlins
Urena, Jose
Urena
1428+13+0=144143%8
NYMNYMMets
Oswalt, Corey
Oswalt
150033+24=149157%1
9/28Friday, Sept. 287:05 p.m.ATLATLBraves
Foltynewicz, Mike
Foltynewicz
1522+141=153558%10
PHIPHIPhillies
Eickhoff, Jerad
Eickhoff
147111+20=148042%2
9/28Friday, Sept. 287:05 p.m.HOUHOUAstros
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1601+11+0=161273%2
BALBALOrioles
Hess, David
Hess
1413+0+24=143727%1
9/28Friday, Sept. 287 p.m.NYYNYYYankees
Happ, J.A.
Happ
1569+93=157549%11
BOSBOSRed Sox
Johnson, Brian
Johnson
158225+26=158351%6
9/28Friday, Sept. 286:40 p.m.PITPITPirates
Kingham, Nick
Kingham
1502352=146547%8
CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
1453+10+26=148953%4
9/28Friday, Sept. 282:20 p.m.STLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
153819+0=151940%4
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1544+20+24=158860%8
9/28Friday, Sept. 282:10 p.m.CHWCHWWhite Sox
Lopez, Reynaldo
Lopez
1442+16+0=145840%1
MINMINTwins
Berrios, Jose
Berrios
1486+19+24=152960%2
9/27Thursday, Sept. 2710:10 p.m.TEXTEXRangers
Jurado, Ariel
Jurado
1473143=145639%2
SEASEAMariners
Gonzales, Marco
Gonzales
1510+2+24=153661%0
9/27Thursday, Sept. 278:10 p.m.DETDETTigers
Liriano, Francisco
Liriano
14349+0=142539%3
MINMINTwins
Moya, Gabriel
Moya
14847+24=150161%9
9/27Thursday, Sept. 278:05 p.m.PITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
1504+21+0=152545%0
CHCCHCCubs
Lester, Jon
Lester
15424+24=156255%3
9/27Thursday, Sept. 278 p.m.CLECLEIndians
Tomlin, Josh
Tomlin
1558532=150358%1
KCKCRoyals
Sparkman, Glenn
Sparkman
143610+21=144742%2
9/27Thursday, Sept. 277:10 p.m.ATLATLBraves
Teheran, Julio
Teheran
15251+0=152455%1
NYMNYMMets
Vargas, Jason
Vargas
149833+24=148945%4
9/27Thursday, Sept. 273:10 p.m.PHIPHIPhillies
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
14723+0=146940%3
COLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
153319+24=153860%5
9/27Thursday, Sept. 271:10 p.m.NYYNYYYankees
Sabathia, CC
Sabathia
15648+0=155651%12
TBTBRays
Schultz, Jaime
Schultz
154721+24=155049%1
9/26Wednesday, Sept. 2610:15 p.m.SDSDPadres
Perdomo, Luis
Perdomo
144714+0=143345%3
SFSFGiants
Kelly, Casey
Kelly
147531+24=146855%2
9/26Wednesday, Sept. 2610:10 p.m.OAKOAKAthletics
Jackson, Edwin
Jackson
156510+0=155556%9
SEASEAMariners
Hernandez, Felix
Hernandez
151322+24=151544%3
9/26Wednesday, Sept. 2610:07 p.m.TEXTEXRangers
Mendez, Yohander
Mendez
14745+0=146941%2
LAALAAAngels
Heaney, Andrew
Heaney
1502+5+24=153159%3
9/26Wednesday, Sept. 269:30 p.m.LADLADDodgers
Stripling, Ross
Stripling
157112+0=155952%2
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1509+15+24=154848%7
9/26Wednesday, Sept. 268:40 p.m.PHIPHIPhillies
Pivetta, Nick
Pivetta
14754+0=147136%0
COLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1529+18+24=157164%14
9/26Wednesday, Sept. 268:10 p.m.DETDETTigers
Boyd, Matthew
Boyd
1437+16+0=145340%4
MINMINTwins
Odorizzi, Jake
Odorizzi
1481+16+24=152160%11
9/26Wednesday, Sept. 268:10 p.m.CLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
155523+0=153260%10
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Fry, Jace
Fry
14445+24=146340%2
9/26Wednesday, Sept. 268:05 p.m.PITPITPirates
Nova, Ivan
Nova
15057+0=149840%6
CHCCHCCubs
Quintana, Jose
Quintana
1541+2+24=156760%7
9/26Wednesday, Sept. 267:10 p.m.NYYNYYYankees
Tanaka, Masahiro
Tanaka
1566+18+0=158455%7
TBTBRays
Stanek, Ryne
Stanek
154518+24=155145%8
9/26Wednesday, Sept. 267:10 p.m.ATLATLBraves
Newcomb, Sean
Newcomb
152716+0=151141%0
NYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1496+51+24=157159%3
9/26Wednesday, Sept. 267:10 p.m.BALBALOrioles
Yacabonis, Jimmy
Yacabonis
1405+10+0=141519%10
BOSBOSRed Sox
Sale, Chris
Sale
1590+56+24=167081%3
9/26Wednesday, Sept. 267 p.m.MILMILBrewers
Chacin, Jhoulys
Chacin
1542+9+0=155150%2
STLSTLCardinals
Gant, John
Gant
153911+24=155250%1
9/26Wednesday, Sept. 266:40 p.m.KCKCRoyals
Fillmyer, Heath
Fillmyer
14326+0=142645%6
CINCINReds
Reed, Cody
Reed
145621+24=145955%1
9/26Wednesday, Sept. 264:07 p.m.HOUHOUAstros
Devenski, Chris
Devenski
160330+0=157362%1
TORTORBlue Jays
Reid-Foley, Sean
Reid-Foley
14685+24=148738%3
9/26Wednesday, Sept. 264:05 p.m.MIAMIAMarlins
Chen, Wei-Yin
Chen
1430+8+0=143837%3
WSHWSHNationals
McGowin, Kyle
McGowin
152521+24=152863%9
9/26Wednesday, Sept. 261:05 p.m.BALBALOrioles
Meisinger, Ryan
Meisinger
1407+7+2=141622%3
BOSBOSRed Sox
Price, David
Price
1588+17+26=163178%19

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice and Gus Wezerek. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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