Updated Jul. 20, 2019 at 1:28 AM

2019 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Pirates have a 6% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1495, down 8 points from last week.

NL Central standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
CubsCubs53-4470%56%
CardinalsCardinals50-462.538%21%
BrewersBrewers51-483.034%19%
PiratesPirates45-517.56%3%
RedsReds43-529.04%1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
7/20Saturday, July 207:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Eflin, Zach
Eflin
15127+0=150547%
PITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1495+9+24=152853%
7/21Sunday, July 211:35 p.m.PHIPHIPhillies
Velasquez, Vince
Velasquez
15128+0=150448%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+24=152152%
7/22Monday, July 227:05 p.m.STLSTLCardinals
Ponce de Leon, Daniel
Ponce de Leon
1520+102=152851%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+24=152149%
7/23Tuesday, July 237:05 p.m.STLSTLCardinals
Hudson, Dakota
Hudson
152010+0=151048%
PITPITPirates
Archer, Chris
Archer
1495+4+24=152352%
7/24Wednesday, July 247:05 p.m.STLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
15204+0=151651%
PITPITPirates
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
149513+24=150649%
7/25Thursday, July 2512:35 p.m.STLSTLCardinals
Mikolas, Miles
Mikolas
1520+13+0=153351%
PITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1495+9+24=152849%
7/26Friday, July 267:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+22=149549%
NYMNYMMets
Matz, Steven
Matz
150426+24=150251%
7/27Saturday, July 277:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+0=149746%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15044+24=152454%
7/28Sunday, July 281:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
Archer, Chris
Archer
1495+4+0=149947%
NYMNYMMets
Vargas, Jason
Vargas
150411+24=151753%
7/29Monday, July 297:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
1495133=147944%
CINCINReds
Roark, Tanner
Roark
15047+24=152156%
7/30Tuesday, July 307:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1495+9+0=150450%
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
150424+24=150450%
7/31Wednesday, July 3112:35 p.m.PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+0=149746%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+24=152854%
8/2Friday, Aug. 27:05 p.m.NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
150442=149847%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+24=152153%
8/3Saturday, Aug. 37:05 p.m.NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15044+0=150047%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+24=152153%
8/4Sunday, Aug. 41:35 p.m.NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15044+0=150047%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+24=152153%
8/5Monday, Aug. 57:05 p.m.MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1515+52=151849%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+24=152151%
8/6Tuesday, Aug. 67:05 p.m.MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1515+5+0=152050%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+24=152150%
8/7Wednesday, Aug. 77:05 p.m.MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1515+5+0=152050%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+24=152150%
8/9Friday, Aug. 98:15 p.m.PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+21=149643%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1520+3+22=154557%
8/10Saturday, Aug. 107:15 p.m.PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+0=149743%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1520+3+24=154757%
8/11Sunday, Aug. 112:15 p.m.PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+0=149743%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1520+3+24=154757%
8/12Monday, Aug. 1210:07 p.m.PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+24=149345%
LAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1508+4+20=153255%
8/13Tuesday, Aug. 1310:07 p.m.PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+0=149744%
LAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1508+4+24=153656%
8/14Wednesday, Aug. 148:07 p.m.PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+0=149744%
LAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1508+4+24=153656%
8/16Friday, Aug. 167:05 p.m.CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
153612=153352%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+22=151948%
8/17Saturday, Aug. 171:35 p.m.CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
15361+0=153552%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+24=152148%
8/18Sunday, Aug. 187 p.m.CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
15361+0=153555%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+0=149745%
8/19Monday, Aug. 197:05 p.m.WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1534+22=153452%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+24=152148%
8/20Tuesday, Aug. 207:05 p.m.WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1534+2+0=153652%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+24=152148%
8/21Wednesday, Aug. 217:05 p.m.WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1534+2+0=153652%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+24=152148%
8/22Thursday, Aug. 227:05 p.m.WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1534+2+0=153652%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+24=152148%
8/23Friday, Aug. 237:05 p.m.CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+0=150448%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+24=152152%
8/24Saturday, Aug. 247:05 p.m.CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+0=150447%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+24=152153%
8/25Sunday, Aug. 251:35 p.m.CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+0=150447%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+24=152153%
8/26Monday, Aug. 267:05 p.m.PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+22=149544%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1512+1+21=153456%
8/27Tuesday, Aug. 277:05 p.m.PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+0=149744%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1512+1+24=153756%
8/28Wednesday, Aug. 286:05 p.m.PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+0=149744%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1512+1+24=153756%
8/29Thursday, Aug. 298:40 p.m.PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+24=149346%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1500+0+24=152454%
8/30Friday, Aug. 308:40 p.m.PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+0=149746%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1500+0+24=152454%
8/31Saturday, Aug. 318:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+0=149746%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1500+0+24=152454%
9/1Sunday, Sept. 13:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+0=149746%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1500+0+24=152454%
9/3Tuesday, Sept. 37:05 p.m.MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
14441+0=144339%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+23=152061%
9/4Wednesday, Sept. 47:05 p.m.MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
14441+0=144339%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+24=152161%
9/5Thursday, Sept. 57:05 p.m.MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
14441+0=144339%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+24=152161%
9/6Friday, Sept. 67:05 p.m.STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1520+33=152050%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+24=152150%
9/7Saturday, Sept. 77:05 p.m.STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1520+3+0=152350%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+24=152150%
9/8Sunday, Sept. 81:35 p.m.STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1520+3+0=152350%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+24=152150%
9/9Monday, Sept. 99:45 p.m.PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+24=149348%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1486+1+22=150952%
9/10Tuesday, Sept. 109:45 p.m.PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+0=149748%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1486+1+24=151152%
9/11Wednesday, Sept. 119:45 p.m.PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+0=149748%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1486+1+24=151152%
9/12Thursday, Sept. 123:45 p.m.PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+0=149748%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1486+1+24=151152%
9/13Friday, Sept. 134:05 p.m.PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+24=149341%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
15361+20=155559%
9/14Saturday, Sept. 142:20 p.m.PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+0=149741%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
15361+24=155959%
9/15Sunday, Sept. 152:20 p.m.PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+0=149741%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
15361+24=155959%
9/17Tuesday, Sept. 177:05 p.m.SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1465+22=146542%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+24=152158%
9/18Wednesday, Sept. 187:05 p.m.SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1465+2+0=146742%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+24=152158%
9/19Thursday, Sept. 1912:35 p.m.SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1465+2+0=146742%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+24=152158%
9/20Friday, Sept. 208:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+22=149543%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1515+5+24=154457%
9/21Saturday, Sept. 217:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+0=149743%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1515+5+24=154457%
9/22Sunday, Sept. 222:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+0=149743%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1515+5+24=154457%
9/24Tuesday, Sept. 247:05 p.m.CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
15361+0=153552%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+24=152148%
9/25Wednesday, Sept. 257:05 p.m.CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
15361+0=153552%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+24=152148%
9/26Thursday, Sept. 267:05 p.m.CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
15361+0=153552%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+24=152148%
9/27Friday, Sept. 277:05 p.m.CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1504+02=150247%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+24=152153%
9/28Saturday, Sept. 287:05 p.m.CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+0=150447%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+24=152153%
9/29Sunday, Sept. 293:05 p.m.CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+0=150447%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1495+2+24=152153%

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
7/19Friday, July 197:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
151072=150149%6
PITPITPirates
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
149715+23=150551%1
7/17Wednesday, July 171:15 p.m.PITPITPirates
Archer, Chris
Archer
1498+3+0=150142%5
STLSTLCardinals
Ponce de Leon, Daniel
Ponce de Leon
1516+17+24=155758%6
7/16Tuesday, July 168:15 p.m.PITPITPirates
Agrazal, Dario
Agrazal
14961+0=149543%3
STLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1518+6+24=154857%1
7/15Monday, July 158:15 p.m.PITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1499+122=150945%0
STLSTLCardinals
Mikolas, Miles
Mikolas
1515+7+24=154655%7
7/14Sunday, July 142:20 p.m.PITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
1501+18+0=151945%3
CHCCHCCubs
Quintana, Jose
Quintana
15334+24=155355%8
7/13Saturday, July 132:20 p.m.PITPITPirates
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
150310+0=149342%4
CHCCHCCubs
Lester, Jon
Lester
15316+24=154958%10
7/12Friday, July 122:20 p.m.PITPITPirates
Archer, Chris
Archer
15033+5=150543%3
CHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
15305+30=155557%4
7/7Sunday, July 71:35 p.m.MILMILBrewers
Anderson, Chase
Anderson
1517+7+0=152448%5
PITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1502+10+24=153652%6
7/6Saturday, July 64:05 p.m.MILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
152020+0=150047%2
PITPITPirates
Agrazal, Dario
Agrazal
14994+24=151953%12
7/5Friday, July 57:05 p.m.MILMILBrewers
Davies, Zach
Davies
151912=151650%7
PITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
15006+24=151850%6
7/4Thursday, July 44 p.m.CHCCHCCubs
Quintana, Jose
Quintana
15275+0=152250%11
PITPITPirates
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
15033+24=152450%3
7/3Wednesday, July 37:05 p.m.CHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
15285+0=152350%5
PITPITPirates
Archer, Chris
Archer
15024+24=152250%6
7/2Tuesday, July 27:05 p.m.CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1530+20+0=155053%1
PITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1500+6+24=153047%5
7/1Monday, July 17 p.m.CHCCHCCubs
Alzolay, Adbert
Alzolay
1534202=151246%5
PITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
1496+20+22=153854%18
6/30Sunday, June 302:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
14979+0=148842%1
MILMILBrewers
Davies, Zach
Davies
15201+24=154358%2
6/29Saturday, June 298:15 p.m.PITPITPirates
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
14985+0=149340%1
MILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1519+21+24=156460%3
6/28Friday, June 288 p.m.PITPITPirates
Archer, Chris
Archer
149753=148942%3
MILMILBrewers
Chacin, Jhoulys
Chacin
15201+24=154358%2
6/27Thursday, June 272:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1493+4+0=149737%10
HOUHOUAstros
Peacock, Brad
Peacock
15706+24=158863%0
6/26Wednesday, June 268:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
Agrazal, Dario
Agrazal
14877+0=148037%14
HOUHOUAstros
Valdez, Framber
Valdez
157527+24=157263%2
6/25Tuesday, June 258:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
1489+231=151136%1
HOUHOUAstros
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1574+18+23=161564%5
6/23Sunday, June 231:35 p.m.SDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
1482+11+0=149348%10
PITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
14887+24=150552%11
6/22Saturday, June 224:05 p.m.SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1484+11+0=149549%3
PITPITPirates
Archer, Chris
Archer
14866+24=150451%6
6/21Friday, June 217:05 p.m.SDSDPadres
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
148522=148146%1
PITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1485+0+26=151154%2
6/19Wednesday, June 197:05 p.m.DETDETTigers
Zimmermann, Jordan
Zimmermann
142310+0=141333%7
PITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
1484+30+24=153867%8
6/18Tuesday, June 187:05 p.m.DETDETTigers
Norris, Daniel
Norris
1422+0+0=142241%5
PITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
148622+23=148759%4
6/16Sunday, June 161:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
Archer, Chris
Archer
14854+0=148154%5
MIAMIAMarlins
Alcantara, Sandy
Alcantara
14397+24=145646%4
6/15Saturday, June 156:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
Agrazal, Dario
Agrazal
14866+0=148052%3
MIAMIAMarlins
Lopez, Pablo
Lopez
1438+5+24=146748%4
6/14Friday, June 147:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
1482113=146849%11
MIAMIAMarlins
Richards, Trevor
Richards
1442+5+26=147351%0
6/13Thursday, June 1312:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1483+3+0=148639%5
ATLATLBraves
Teheran, Julio
Teheran
1521+20+24=156561%6
6/12Wednesday, June 127:20 p.m.PITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
148414+0=147035%7
ATLATLBraves
Soroka, Mike
Soroka
1520+34+24=157865%8
6/11Tuesday, June 117:20 p.m.PITPITPirates
Archer, Chris
Archer
14851+0=148441%5
ATLATLBraves
Foltynewicz, Mike
Foltynewicz
1519+1+24=154459%7
6/10Monday, June 107:20 p.m.PITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1487+13=148544%7
ATLATLBraves
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
151712+21=152656%13
6/9Sunday, June 92:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
148817+0=147138%2
MILMILBrewers
Anderson, Chase
Anderson
1531+3+24=155862%5
6/8Saturday, June 84:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
14895+0=148438%3
MILMILBrewers
Davies, Zach
Davies
1530+13+24=156762%5
6/7Friday, June 78:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
Davis, Rookie
Davis
1491332=145635%4
MILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1528+11+24=156365%10
6/6Thursday, June 612:35 p.m.ATLATLBraves
Foltynewicz, Mike
Foltynewicz
1516+3+0=151951%1
PITPITPirates
Archer, Chris
Archer
14883+24=150949%6
6/5Wednesday, June 57:05 p.m.ATLATLBraves
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
15174+0=151351%4
PITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
14862+24=150849%7
6/4Tuesday, June 47:05 p.m.ATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1515+9+0=152454%12
PITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
148917+26=149846%5
6/2Sunday, June 21:35 p.m.MILMILBrewers
Davies, Zach
Davies
1536+11+0=154755%4
PITPITPirates
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
14905+24=150945%2
6/1Saturday, June 14:05 p.m.MILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1535+16+0=155160%12
PITPITPirates
Kingham, Nick
Kingham
149136+24=147940%10
5/31Friday, May 317:05 p.m.MILMILBrewers
Chacin, Jhoulys
Chacin
1537+3+0=154055%4
PITPITPirates
Archer, Chris
Archer
14895+24=150845%9
5/30Thursday, May 307:05 p.m.MILMILBrewers
Anderson, Chase
Anderson
1535+61=154054%11
PITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1491+1+22=151446%5
5/29Wednesday, May 2912:35 p.m.PITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
148824+0=146442%7
CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
150815+24=151758%2
5/28Tuesday, May 286:40 p.m.PITPITPirates
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
14905+0=148548%6
CINCINReds
Sims, Lucas
Sims
150632+24=149852%11
5/27Monday, May 277:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
149312+0=148143%1
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1504+4+24=153257%8
5/27Monday, May 271:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
Kingham, Nick
Kingham
1490382=145036%8
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1506+25+22=155364%5
5/26Sunday, May 261:35 p.m.LADLADDodgers
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
157512+0=156357%11
PITPITPirates
Archer, Chris
Archer
14924+24=151243%7
5/25Saturday, May 257:15 p.m.LADLADDodgers
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1573+13+0=158659%7
PITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1494+3+24=152141%2
5/24Friday, May 247:05 p.m.LADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1571+131=158361%10
PITPITPirates
Feliz, Michael
Feliz
149615+24=150539%2
5/23Thursday, May 2312:35 p.m.COLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
151312+0=150149%6
PITPITPirates
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
14938+24=150951%14
5/22Wednesday, May 227:05 p.m.COLCOLRockies
Gray, Jon
Gray
15114+0=150750%9
PITPITPirates
DuRapau, Montana
DuRapau
149515+24=150450%3
5/21Tuesday, May 217 p.m.COLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1509+31+0=154054%5
PITPITPirates
Archer, Chris
Archer
14975+22=151446%0
5/19Sunday, May 194:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1496+0+0=149649%6
SDSDPadres
Quantrill, Cal
Quantrill
14845+24=150351%4
5/18Saturday, May 188:40 p.m.PITPITPirates
DuRapau, Montana
DuRapau
149317+0=147646%7
SDSDPadres
Margevicius, Nick
Margevicius
14869+24=150154%2
5/17Friday, May 1710:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
149213+0=147946%5
SDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
14883+24=150954%3
5/16Thursday, May 1610:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
1493+202=151152%3
SDSDPadres
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
148714+23=149648%4
5/15Wednesday, May 153:40 p.m.PITPITPirates
Archer, Chris
Archer
14961+0=149540%1
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1509+31+24=156460%11
5/14Tuesday, May 149:40 p.m.PITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
14936+0=148743%6
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
1512+1+24=153757%2
5/13Monday, May 139:40 p.m.PITPITPirates
Kingham, Nick
Kingham
1495373=145537%3
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Ray, Robbie
Ray
1510+12+24=154663%9
5/12Sunday, May 122:15 p.m.PITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
149325+0=146842%10
STLSTLCardinals
Hudson, Dakota
Hudson
153031+24=152358%6
5/11Saturday, May 112:15 p.m.PITPITPirates
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
149121+0=147035%2
STLSTLCardinals
Mikolas, Miles
Mikolas
1532+19+24=157565%1
5/10Friday, May 108:15 p.m.PITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
1490+17+0=150744%2
STLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
153311+24=154656%1
5/9Thursday, May 97:45 p.m.PITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
149313=148942%4
STLSTLCardinals
Wacha, Michael
Wacha
15306+24=154858%17
5/8Wednesday, May 812:35 p.m.TEXTEXRangers
Miller, Shelby
Miller
147324+0=144946%9
PITPITPirates
Kingham, Nick
Kingham
149541+24=147854%6
5/7Tuesday, May 77:05 p.m.TEXTEXRangers
Sampson, Adrian
Sampson
147421=147147%4
PITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
149427+26=149353%5
5/5Sunday, May 51:35 p.m.OAKOAKAthletics
Montas, Frankie
Montas
1511+4+0=151553%3
PITPITPirates
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
149225+24=149147%5
5/4Saturday, May 47:05 p.m.OAKOAKAthletics
Bassitt, Chris
Bassitt
1512+11+0=152349%4
PITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
1491+17+24=153251%6
5/3Friday, May 37:05 p.m.OAKOAKAthletics
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
15081+0=150748%14
PITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1495+4+23=152252%1
5/1Wednesday, May 12:05 p.m.PITPITPirates
Taillon, Jameson
Taillon
1494+13+0=150755%7
TEXTEXRangers
Miller, Shelby
Miller
147224+24=147245%5
4/30Tuesday, April 308:05 p.m.PITPITPirates
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
1493291=146347%6
TEXTEXRangers
Sampson, Adrian
Sampson
14739+22=148653%4
4/28Sunday, April 284:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
1494+18+0=151238%6
LADLADDodgers
Hill, Rich
Hill
1566+10+24=160062%7
4/27Saturday, April 279:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1495+3+0=149835%1
LADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1565+12+24=160165%3
4/26Friday, April 2610:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
Archer, Chris
Archer
1496+24=149438%2
LADLADDodgers
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
15644+20=158062%6
4/25Thursday, April 2512:35 p.m.ARIARIDiamondbacks
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1509+21+0=153049%5
PITPITPirates
Taillon, Jameson
Taillon
1498+13+24=153551%0
4/24Wednesday, April 247:05 p.m.ARIARIDiamondbacks
Kelly, Merrill
Kelly
150613+0=149349%11
PITPITPirates
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
150128+24=149751%2
4/23Tuesday, April 237:05 p.m.ARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
15058+0=149744%2
PITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
1503+14+24=154156%1
4/22Monday, April 227:05 p.m.ARIARIDiamondbacks
Godley, Zack
Godley
1501102=148944%12
PITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1506+2+24=153256%4
4/21Sunday, April 211:35 p.m.SFSFGiants
Rodriguez, Dereck
Rodriguez
1462+14+0=147642%3
PITPITPirates
Archer, Chris
Archer
1507+4+24=153558%2
4/20Saturday, April 204:05 p.m.SFSFGiants
Holland, Derek
Holland
14634+0=145938%1
PITPITPirates
Taillon, Jameson
Taillon
1506+12+24=154262%3
4/19Friday, April 197:05 p.m.SFSFGiants
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
1465+172=148047%1
PITPITPirates
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
150532+24=149753%4
4/17Wednesday, April 176:40 p.m.PITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
1504+14+0=151857%3
DETDETTigers
Turnbull, Spencer
Turnbull
1446+1+24=147143%2
4/16Tuesday, April 166:40 p.m.PITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1503+0+0=150352%5
DETDETTigers
Boyd, Matthew
Boyd
1447+15+23=148548%3
4/14Sunday, April 141:35 p.m.PITPITPirates
Taillon, Jameson
Taillon
1501+14+0=151538%4
WSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1539+35+24=159862%3
4/13Saturday, April 134:05 p.m.PITPITPirates
Archer, Chris
Archer
1502+2+0=150444%2
WSHWSHNationals
Sanchez, Anibal
Sanchez
153816+24=154656%3
4/12Friday, April 127:05 p.m.PITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
1500+153=151241%6
WSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
1540+9+24=157359%3
4/11Thursday, April 117:35 p.m.PITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
15011+0=150045%0
CHCCHCCubs
Quintana, Jose
Quintana
15165+24=153555%2
4/10Wednesday, April 108:05 p.m.PITPITPirates
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
149935+2=146640%5
CHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
15184+26=154060%2
4/8Monday, April 82:20 p.m.PITPITPirates
Taillon, Jameson
Taillon
1502+212=152147%0
CHCCHCCubs
Lester, Jon
Lester
1515+4+23=154253%10
4/7Sunday, April 71:35 p.m.CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
1489+0+0=148944%5
PITPITPirates
Archer, Chris
Archer
1501+3+24=152856%7
4/6Saturday, April 61:35 p.m.CINCINReds
Roark, Tanner
Roark
14905+0=148542%5
PITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
1500+18+24=154258%6
4/5Friday, April 57:05 p.m.CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
14915+0=148646%0
PITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
14997+24=151654%2
4/4Thursday, April 47:05 p.m.CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1492242=146647%0
PITPITPirates
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
149838+24=148453%2
4/3Wednesday, April 37:05 p.m.STLSTLCardinals
Mikolas, Miles
Mikolas
1525+17+2=154450%5
PITPITPirates
Taillon, Jameson
Taillon
1499+20+26=154550%4
4/1Monday, April 11 p.m.STLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
1524162=150647%6
PITPITPirates
Archer, Chris
Archer
1500+2+22=152453%5
3/31Sunday, March 311:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
1498+18+5=152149%5
CINCINReds
Roark, Tanner
Roark
1497+0+29=152651%0
3/28Thursday, March 284:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
Taillon, Jameson
Taillon
1499+232=152047%3
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1496+22+24=154253%5

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice and Gus Wezerek. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

Comments