Updated Sep. 15, 2019 at 10:22 PM

2019 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Reds have a <1% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1498, up 2 points from last week.

NL Central standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
CardinalsCardinals83-6686%60%
CubsCubs81-682.066%30%
BrewersBrewers80-693.048%10%
RedsReds70-8013.5<1%
PiratesPirates65-8518.5

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
9/16Monday, Sept. 168:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
1498274=146737%
CHCCHCCubs
Hamels, Cole
Hamels
15413+24=156263%
9/17Tuesday, Sept. 178 p.m.CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1498+29+0=152741%
CHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1541+23+24=158859%
9/18Wednesday, Sept. 188:05 p.m.CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
149827+0=147140%
CHCCHCCubs
Lester, Jon
Lester
154121+24=154460%
9/20Friday, Sept. 207:10 p.m.NYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1528+461=157355%
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1498+18+24=154045%
9/21Saturday, Sept. 214:10 p.m.NYMNYMMets
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1528+1+0=152950%
CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
1498+4+24=152650%
9/22Sunday, Sept. 221:10 p.m.NYMNYMMets
Matz, Steven
Matz
152811+0=151749%
CINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
1498+1+24=152351%
9/24Tuesday, Sept. 246:40 p.m.MILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
1520+0+0=152045%
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1498+29+26=155355%
9/25Wednesday, Sept. 256:40 p.m.MILMILBrewers
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
15208+0=151252%
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
149827+24=149548%
9/26Thursday, Sept. 2612:35 p.m.MILMILBrewers
Anderson, Chase
Anderson
1520+1+0=152147%
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1498+18+24=154053%
9/27Friday, Sept. 277:05 p.m.CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1498+82=150450%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1474+3+24=150150%
9/28Saturday, Sept. 287:05 p.m.CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1498+8+0=150651%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1474+3+24=150149%
9/29Sunday, Sept. 293:05 p.m.CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1498+8+0=150651%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1474+3+24=150149%

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
9/15Sunday, Sept. 154:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
14975+0=149240%3
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1514+26+24=156460%1
9/14Saturday, Sept. 148:10 p.m.CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
1497+0+0=149746%0
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Kelly, Merrill
Kelly
151310+24=152754%1
9/13Friday, Sept. 139:40 p.m.CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1496+223=151550%4
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Leake, Mike
Leake
151416+20=151850%3
9/12Thursday, Sept. 1210:10 p.m.CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
149421+0=147347%11
SEASEAMariners
Dunn, Justin
Dunn
1465+6+24=149553%5
9/11Wednesday, Sept. 1110:10 p.m.CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1495+31+0=152654%3
SEASEAMariners
Gonzales, Marco
Gonzales
1463+13+24=150046%5
9/10Tuesday, Sept. 1010:10 p.m.CINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
149652=148950%3
SEASEAMariners
Sheffield, Justus
Sheffield
1462+6+22=149050%4
9/8Sunday, Sept. 81:10 p.m.ARIARIDiamondbacks
Leake, Mike
Leake
152421+0=150348%3
CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
14951+24=151852%4
9/7Saturday, Sept. 74:10 p.m.ARIARIDiamondbacks
Young, Alex
Young
15229+0=151346%2
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1497+18+24=153954%0
9/6Friday, Sept. 67:10 p.m.ARIARIDiamondbacks
Ray, Robbie
Ray
1521+112=153054%7
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
149816+24=150646%5
9/5Thursday, Sept. 512:35 p.m.PHIPHIPhillies
Vargas, Jason
Vargas
15091+0=150844%3
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1497+29+24=155056%4
9/4Wednesday, Sept. 46:40 p.m.PHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1511+44+0=155555%5
CINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
14952+24=151745%8
9/3Tuesday, Sept. 36:40 p.m.PHIPHIPhillies
Velasquez, Vince
Velasquez
15097+0=150252%6
CINCINReds
Sims, Lucas
Sims
149730+24=149148%2
9/2Monday, Sept. 22:10 p.m.PHIPHIPhillies
Smyly, Drew
Smyly
1506122=149246%7
CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
15001+22=152154%1
9/1Sunday, Sept. 17:05 p.m.CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1498+19+0=151744%5
STLSTLCardinals
Ponce de Leon, Daniel
Ponce de Leon
15416+24=155956%3
9/1Sunday, Sept. 11:05 p.m.CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
149920+0=147937%3
STLSTLCardinals
Mikolas, Miles
Mikolas
1541+5+24=157063%4
8/31Saturday, Aug. 317:15 p.m.CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1500+29+0=152948%2
STLSTLCardinals
Wacha, Michael
Wacha
154022+24=154252%3
8/31Saturday, Aug. 311:15 p.m.CINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
1502+61=150743%6
STLSTLCardinals
Hudson, Dakota
Hudson
15387+27=155857%10
8/29Thursday, Aug. 297:10 p.m.CINCINReds
Wood, Alex
Wood
150313+0=149057%3
MIAMIAMarlins
Dugger, Robert
Dugger
143417+24=144143%4
8/28Wednesday, Aug. 287:10 p.m.CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
15016+0=149555%5
MIAMIAMarlins
Alcantara, Sandy
Alcantara
1436+3+24=146345%0
8/27Tuesday, Aug. 277:10 p.m.CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1499+22+0=152157%8
MIAMIAMarlins
Smith, Caleb
Smith
1437+10+24=147143%5
8/26Monday, Aug. 267:10 p.m.CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1498+303=152557%6
MIAMIAMarlins
Lopez, Pablo
Lopez
1439+11+24=147443%3
8/25Sunday, Aug. 251:35 p.m.CINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
1499+13+0=151253%8
PITPITPirates
Agrazal, Dario
Agrazal
14746+24=149247%9
8/24Saturday, Aug. 247:05 p.m.CINCINReds
Wood, Alex
Wood
150314+0=148950%0
PITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
14704+24=149050%14
8/23Friday, Aug. 237:05 p.m.CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
150511+0=149452%2
PITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
146916+24=147748%3
8/21Wednesday, Aug. 2112:35 p.m.SDSDPadres
Strahm, Matt
Strahm
14816+0=147540%2
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1504+18+24=154660%4
8/20Tuesday, Aug. 207:10 p.m.SDSDPadres
Quantrill, Cal
Quantrill
1482+9+0=149141%2
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1503+28+24=155559%3
8/19Monday, Aug. 197:10 p.m.SDSDPadres
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
148152=147441%3
CINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
1504+12+24=154059%2
8/18Sunday, Aug. 181:10 p.m.STLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1526+32+0=155855%5
CINCINReds
Wood, Alex
Wood
15059+24=152045%4
8/17Saturday, Aug. 176:40 p.m.STLSTLCardinals
Mikolas, Miles
Mikolas
1528+9+0=153753%1
CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
150310+24=151747%6
8/16Friday, Aug. 167:10 p.m.STLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
15253+0=152245%13
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1506+27+24=155755%4
8/15Thursday, Aug. 157:10 p.m.STLSTLCardinals
Wacha, Michael
Wacha
1525243=149843%1
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1505+23+22=155057%2
8/14Wednesday, Aug. 144:05 p.m.CINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
1508+18+0=152643%7
WSHWSHNationals
Strasburg, Stephen
Strasburg
1540+10+24=157457%17
8/13Tuesday, Aug. 137:05 p.m.CINCINReds
Wood, Alex
Wood
150910+0=149945%1
WSHWSHNationals
Ross, Joe
Ross
153826+24=153655%3
8/12Monday, Aug. 127:05 p.m.CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
151082=150048%6
WSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
153744+22=151552%7
8/11Sunday, Aug. 111:10 p.m.CHCCHCCubs
Lester, Jon
Lester
153516+0=151944%6
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1512+24+24=156056%3
8/10Saturday, Aug. 107:10 p.m.CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1538+23+0=156152%1
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1509+18+24=155148%10
8/9Friday, Aug. 97:10 p.m.CHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1540+6+0=154650%2
CINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
1507+14+24=154550%5
8/8Thursday, Aug. 87:10 p.m.CHCCHCCubs
Hamels, Cole
Hamels
1537+182=155353%12
CINCINReds
Wood, Alex
Wood
15105+26=153147%5
8/6Tuesday, Aug. 67:10 p.m.LAALAAAngels
Suarez, Jose
Suarez
149610+0=148644%4
CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
15085+24=152756%8
8/5Monday, Aug. 57:10 p.m.LAALAAAngels
Cole, Taylor
Cole
1497102=148541%4
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1507+22+22=155159%7
8/4Sunday, Aug. 41:20 p.m.CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1505+16+0=152143%6
ATLATLBraves
Teheran, Julio
Teheran
1531+14+24=156957%4
8/3Saturday, Aug. 37:20 p.m.CINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
1506+17+0=152344%4
ATLATLBraves
Keuchel, Dallas
Keuchel
1530+10+24=156456%5
8/2Friday, Aug. 27:20 p.m.CINCINReds
Wood, Alex
Wood
15046+0=149843%5
ATLATLBraves
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
15329+24=154757%2
8/1Thursday, Aug. 17:20 p.m.CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
150522=150143%1
ATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1531+1+21=155357%4
7/31Wednesday, July 3112:35 p.m.PITPITPirates
Agrazal, Dario
Agrazal
1487+5+0=149242%1
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1504+20+24=154858%4
7/30Tuesday, July 307:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1484+11+0=149546%11
CINCINReds
Roark, Tanner
Roark
15075+24=152654%4
7/29Monday, July 297:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
McRae, Alex
McRae
148513=148141%6
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1505+18+24=154759%11
7/28Sunday, July 281:10 p.m.COLCOLRockies
Lambert, Peter
Lambert
150110+0=149145%2
CINCINReds
Wood, Alex
Wood
15056+24=152355%3
7/27Saturday, July 277:10 p.m.COLCOLRockies
Gonzalez, Chi Chi
Gonzalez
150221+0=148144%1
CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
15035+24=152256%3
7/26Friday, July 266:40 p.m.COLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1498+182=151444%12
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1507+24+24=155556%2
7/24Wednesday, July 242:10 p.m.CINCINReds
Sims, Lucas
Sims
150833+0=147542%4
MILMILBrewers
Chacin, Jhoulys
Chacin
15147+24=153158%5
7/23Tuesday, July 238:10 p.m.CINCINReds
Roark, Tanner
Roark
15059+0=149642%14
MILMILBrewers
Davies, Zach
Davies
1518+8+24=155058%6
7/22Monday, July 228:10 p.m.CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1503+152=151645%6
MILMILBrewers
Anderson, Chase
Anderson
1519+12+20=155155%5
7/21Sunday, July 211:10 p.m.STLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1519+12+0=153152%3
CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
150510+24=151948%1
7/20Saturday, July 207:10 p.m.STLSTLCardinals
Mikolas, Miles
Mikolas
1520+13+0=153347%2
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1504+25+24=155353%3
7/19Friday, July 197:10 p.m.STLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
1519+2+0=152152%12
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
150525+24=150448%11
7/18Thursday, July 187:10 p.m.STLSTLCardinals
Hudson, Dakota
Hudson
1517102=150548%7
CINCINReds
Roark, Tanner
Roark
15067+22=152152%4
7/17Wednesday, July 172:20 p.m.CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1508+14+0=152245%2
CHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1534+0+24=155855%5
7/16Tuesday, July 168:05 p.m.CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
15099+0=150044%3
CHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
153317+24=154056%4
7/15Monday, July 158:05 p.m.CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1507+263=153044%6
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1535+15+24=157456%3
7/14Sunday, July 143:10 p.m.CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
150819+0=148946%9
COLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
151217+24=151954%10
7/13Saturday, July 138:10 p.m.CINCINReds
Roark, Tanner
Roark
15051+0=150445%17
COLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
15151+24=153855%9
7/12Friday, July 128:40 p.m.CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1505+7+4=151644%2
COLCOLRockies
Gray, Jon
Gray
1514+14+28=155656%3
7/7Sunday, July 71:10 p.m.CLECLEIndians
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
1536+8+0=154454%11
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
150918+24=151546%1
7/6Saturday, July 64:10 p.m.CLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1534+111=154453%7
CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
151112+26=152547%2
7/4Thursday, July 42:10 p.m.MILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1520+24+0=154449%0
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1510+17+24=155151%1
7/3Wednesday, July 37:10 p.m.MILMILBrewers
Chacin, Jhoulys
Chacin
15212+0=151948%0
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1508+1+24=153352%3
7/2Tuesday, July 27:10 p.m.MILMILBrewers
Anderson, Chase
Anderson
1522+7+0=152949%4
CINCINReds
Roark, Tanner
Roark
1507+4+24=153551%5
7/1Monday, July 17:10 p.m.MILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
1521162=150348%8
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
150817+24=151552%6
6/30Sunday, June 301:10 p.m.CHCCHCCubs
Lester, Jon
Lester
15357+0=152851%6
CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
150712+24=151949%8
6/29Saturday, June 294:10 p.m.CHCCHCCubs
Quintana, Jose
Quintana
153211+0=152146%6
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1510+18+24=155254%0
6/28Friday, June 287:10 p.m.CHCCHCCubs
Hamels, Cole
Hamels
1534+202=155253%3
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1508+0+22=153047%6
6/26Wednesday, June 268:07 p.m.CINCINReds
Roark, Tanner
Roark
1510+5+0=151546%1
LAALAAAngels
Barria, Jaime
Barria
1507+11+24=154254%5
6/25Tuesday, June 2510:07 p.m.CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1511132=149645%1
LAALAAAngels
Heaney, Andrew
Heaney
1506+5+22=153355%5
6/23Sunday, June 232:10 p.m.CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
15129+0=150341%5
MILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1522+19+24=156559%7
6/22Saturday, June 224:10 p.m.CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1514+23+0=153749%5
MILMILBrewers
Chacin, Jhoulys
Chacin
1521+2+24=154751%6
6/21Friday, June 218:10 p.m.CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1511+2+0=151344%11
MILMILBrewers
Anderson, Chase
Anderson
1524+6+24=155456%7
6/20Thursday, June 208 p.m.CINCINReds
Roark, Tanner
Roark
150822=150443%7
MILMILBrewers
Nelson, Jimmy
Nelson
1527+10+20=155757%1
6/19Wednesday, June 1912:35 p.m.HOUHOUAstros
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1577+19+0=159662%2
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
150719+24=151238%3
6/18Tuesday, June 187:10 p.m.HOUHOUAstros
Verlander, Justin
Verlander
1579+41+0=162064%3
CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
150512+24=151736%4
6/17Monday, June 177:10 p.m.HOUHOUAstros
Miley, Wade
Miley
1580113=156652%2
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1504+23+24=155148%3
6/16Sunday, June 161 p.m.TEXTEXRangers
Jurado, Ariel
Jurado
14907+0=148343%3
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1502+5+24=153157%11
6/15Saturday, June 157:10 p.m.TEXTEXRangers
Minor, Mike
Minor
1489+38+0=152750%4
CINCINReds
Roark, Tanner
Roark
15031+24=152650%3
6/14Friday, June 147:10 p.m.TEXTEXRangers
Chavez, Jesse
Chavez
1486183=146543%7
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
150618+24=151257%1
6/12Wednesday, June 121:10 p.m.CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
150314+0=148942%7
CLECLEIndians
Plesac, Zach
Plesac
153315+24=154258%2
6/11Tuesday, June 117 p.m.CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1504+23+0=152744%1
CLECLEIndians
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
1532+11+26=156956%2
6/9Sunday, June 91:05 p.m.CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1503+6+0=150941%4
PHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1527+22+24=157359%3
6/8Saturday, June 84:05 p.m.CINCINReds
Roark, Tanner
Roark
1504+2+0=150645%1
PHIPHIPhillies
Pivetta, Nick
Pivetta
152610+24=154055%4
6/7Friday, June 77:05 p.m.CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1505183=148441%2
PHIPHIPhillies
Eflin, Zach
Eflin
1525+1+22=154859%4
6/6Thursday, June 61:15 p.m.CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
150716+2=149344%1
STLSTLCardinals
Hudson, Dakota
Hudson
152412+26=153856%3
6/4Tuesday, June 48:15 p.m.CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1505+22+0=152749%4
STLSTLCardinals
Cabrera, Genesis
Cabrera
152520+26=153151%1
6/2Sunday, June 21:10 p.m.WSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1518+31+0=154952%4
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1506+6+24=153648%1
6/1Saturday, June 14:10 p.m.WSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
151637+0=147942%5
CINCINReds
Roark, Tanner
Roark
1508+4+24=153658%2
5/31Friday, May 317:10 p.m.WSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
1519+19+0=153853%3
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
150618+26=151447%9
5/29Wednesday, May 2912:35 p.m.PITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
148824+0=146442%7
CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
150815+24=151758%2
5/28Tuesday, May 286:40 p.m.PITPITPirates
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
14905+0=148548%6
CINCINReds
Sims, Lucas
Sims
150632+24=149852%11
5/27Monday, May 277:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
149312+0=148143%1
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1504+4+24=153257%8
5/27Monday, May 271:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
Kingham, Nick
Kingham
1490382=145036%8
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1506+25+22=155364%5
5/26Sunday, May 262:20 p.m.CINCINReds
Roark, Tanner
Roark
1503+2+0=150541%10
CHCCHCCubs
Quintana, Jose
Quintana
1538+5+24=156759%2
5/25Saturday, May 252:20 p.m.CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
150413+0=149142%6
CHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
153711+24=155058%8
5/24Friday, May 242:20 p.m.CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
150310+1=149438%6
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1539+14+24=157762%5
5/22Wednesday, May 221:10 p.m.CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1504+29+0=153344%9
MILMILBrewers
Davies, Zach
Davies
1536+12+24=157256%11
5/21Tuesday, May 217:40 p.m.CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
15023+0=149941%3
MILMILBrewers
Gonzalez, Gio
Gonzalez
1538+0+23=156159%0
5/19Sunday, May 191:10 p.m.LADLADDodgers
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1571+11+0=158258%8
CINCINReds
Roark, Tanner
Roark
15034+24=152342%3
5/18Saturday, May 184:10 p.m.LADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1573+16+0=158962%0
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
150119+24=150638%4
5/17Friday, May 177:10 p.m.LADLADDodgers
Hill, Rich
Hill
157152=156456%6
CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
15037+24=152044%0
5/16Thursday, May 166:40 p.m.CHCCHCCubs
Quintana, Jose
Quintana
15372+0=153547%2
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1502+29+24=155553%4
5/15Wednesday, May 156:40 p.m.CHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
153819+0=151949%5
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
15011+24=152451%6
5/14Tuesday, May 146:40 p.m.CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1537+11+0=154854%3
CINCINReds
Roark, Tanner
Roark
15023+22=152146%1
5/12Sunday, May 124:05 p.m.CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
150318+0=148546%5
SFSFGiants
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
1461+26+24=151154%6
5/11Saturday, May 119:05 p.m.CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
15023+0=149951%5
SFSFGiants
Samardzija, Jeff
Samardzija
1462+6+24=149249%4
5/10Friday, May 1010:15 p.m.CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1499+271=152555%7
SFSFGiants
Rodriguez, Dereck
Rodriguez
1465+4+21=149045%0
5/9Thursday, May 93:37 p.m.CINCINReds
Roark, Tanner
Roark
14977+0=149042%3
OAKOAKAthletics
Bassitt, Chris
Bassitt
1511+7+24=154258%0
5/8Wednesday, May 810:07 p.m.CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1498+3+0=150145%4
OAKOAKAthletics
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
15101+24=153355%5
5/7Tuesday, May 710:07 p.m.CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1499244=147141%0
OAKOAKAthletics
Fiers, Mike
Fiers
1509+3+22=153459%2
5/6Monday, May 612:35 p.m.SFSFGiants
Pomeranz, Drew
Pomeranz
14644+0=146042%4
CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
14971+24=152058%12
5/5Sunday, May 54:10 p.m.SFSFGiants
Samardzija, Jeff
Samardzija
1463+4+0=146738%6
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1498+28+24=155062%5
5/4Saturday, May 47:10 p.m.SFSFGiants
Rodriguez, Dereck
Rodriguez
1465+8+0=147345%2
CINCINReds
Roark, Tanner
Roark
149610+24=151055%9
5/3Friday, May 37:10 p.m.SFSFGiants
Beede, Tyler
Beede
1464202=144238%12
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1497+6+21=152462%11
5/2Thursday, May 212:10 p.m.CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
149826+0=147240%0
NYMNYMMets
Syndergaard, Noah
Syndergaard
1516+4+24=154460%1
5/1Wednesday, May 17 p.m.CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
14974+0=149337%1
NYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1518+44+24=158663%0
4/30Tuesday, April 307:10 p.m.CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1498+30+0=152852%3
NYMNYMMets
Vargas, Jason
Vargas
151725+24=151648%4
4/29Monday, April 297:10 p.m.CINCINReds
Roark, Tanner
Roark
149763=148841%5
NYMNYMMets
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1518+12+24=155459%4
4/28Sunday, April 282:15 p.m.CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1498+5+0=150341%2
STLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1534+9+24=156759%5
4/27Saturday, April 272:15 p.m.CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
149923+0=147643%3
STLSTLCardinals
Hudson, Dakota
Hudson
153229+24=152757%6
4/26Friday, April 268:15 p.m.CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
149482=148436%12
STLSTLCardinals
Mikolas, Miles
Mikolas
1537+17+26=158064%1
4/25Thursday, April 256:40 p.m.ATLATLBraves
Teheran, Julio
Teheran
1518+3+0=152147%2
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1493+29+24=154653%4
4/24Wednesday, April 246:40 p.m.ATLATLBraves
Soroka, Mike
Soroka
15175+0=151250%3
CINCINReds
Roark, Tanner
Roark
14955+24=151450%1
4/23Tuesday, April 236:40 p.m.ATLATLBraves
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
1518+15+0=153352%6
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1493+5+22=152048%7
4/21Sunday, April 214:10 p.m.CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
149422+0=147246%3
SDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
14793+24=150054%4
4/20Saturday, April 208:40 p.m.CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1493+29+0=152254%4
SDSDPadres
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
14808+24=149646%2
4/19Friday, April 1910:10 p.m.CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
149210+0=148246%3
SDSDPadres
Strahm, Matt
Strahm
1482+1+24=150754%2
4/18Thursday, April 1810:10 p.m.CINCINReds
Roark, Tanner
Roark
149051=148445%4
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1483+12+26=152155%1
4/17Wednesday, April 173:10 p.m.CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1491+4+0=149534%2
LADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1564+20+24=160866%3
4/16Tuesday, April 1610:10 p.m.CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
149219+0=147336%1
LADLADDodgers
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
156211+24=157564%6
4/15Monday, April 1510 p.m.CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1493+304=151939%3
LADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1562+13+24=159961%4
4/14Sunday, April 144 p.m.STLSTLCardinals
Mikolas, Miles
Mikolas
1530+14+0=154458%9
CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
14947+0=148742%5
4/13Saturday, April 137:10 p.m.STLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
153213+0=151955%2
CINCINReds
Roark, Tanner
Roark
14938+2=148745%5
4/11Thursday, April 1112:35 p.m.MIAMIAMarlins
Lopez, Pablo
Lopez
14323+0=142938%0
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1491+0+24=151562%5
4/10Wednesday, April 106:40 p.m.MIAMIAMarlins
Richards, Trevor
Richards
1432+5+0=143742%1
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
149021+24=149358%2
4/9Tuesday, April 96:40 p.m.MIAMIAMarlins
Urena, Jose
Urena
14351+0=143435%0
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1488+27+24=153965%14
4/7Sunday, April 71:35 p.m.CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
1489+0+0=148944%5
PITPITPirates
Archer, Chris
Archer
1501+3+24=152856%7
4/6Saturday, April 61:35 p.m.CINCINReds
Roark, Tanner
Roark
14905+0=148542%5
PITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
1500+18+24=154258%6
4/5Friday, April 57:05 p.m.CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
14915+0=148646%0
PITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
14997+24=151654%2
4/4Thursday, April 47:05 p.m.CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1492242=146647%0
PITPITPirates
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
149838+24=148453%2
4/3Wednesday, April 312:35 p.m.MILMILBrewers
Peralta, Freddy
Peralta
15324+0=152848%1
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1493+23+24=154052%0
4/2Tuesday, April 26:40 p.m.MILMILBrewers
Chacin, Jhoulys
Chacin
1531+16+0=154754%4
CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
1494+0+24=151846%3
4/1Monday, April 16:40 p.m.MILMILBrewers
Davies, Zach
Davies
153022=152651%4
CINCINReds
Roark, Tanner
Roark
14951+24=151849%3
3/31Sunday, March 311:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
1498+18+5=152149%5
CINCINReds
Roark, Tanner
Roark
1497+0+29=152651%0
3/28Thursday, March 284:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
Taillon, Jameson
Taillon
1499+232=152047%3
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1496+22+24=154253%5

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice and Gus Wezerek. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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