Updated Sep. 15, 2019 at 10:22 PM

2019 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Padres have a <1% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1472, down 4 points from last week.

NL West standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
DodgersDodgers97-54
DbacksDiamondbacks76-7420.5<1%
GiantsGiants72-7824.5<1%
PadresPadres68-8128.0<1%
RockiesRockies65-8531.5

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
9/16Monday, Sept. 167:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Richards, Garrett
Richards
1472+213=149043%
MILMILBrewers
Davies, Zach
Davies
15204+22=153857%
9/17Tuesday, Sept. 177:40 p.m.SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1472+22+0=149443%
MILMILBrewers
Gonzalez, Gio
Gonzalez
1520+0+24=154457%
9/18Wednesday, Sept. 187:40 p.m.SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1472+15+0=148742%
MILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
1520+0+24=154458%
9/19Thursday, Sept. 194:10 p.m.SDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
1472+9+0=148142%
MILMILBrewers
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
15208+24=153658%
9/20Friday, Sept. 2010:10 p.m.ARIARIDiamondbacks
Kelly, Merrill
Kelly
15135+0=150853%
SDSDPadres
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
14723+20=148947%
9/21Saturday, Sept. 218:40 p.m.ARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1513+22+0=153558%
SDSDPadres
Quantrill, Cal
Quantrill
147214+24=148242%
9/22Sunday, Sept. 224:10 p.m.ARIARIDiamondbacks
Ray, Robbie
Ray
1513+4+0=151750%
SDSDPadres
Richards, Garrett
Richards
1472+21+24=151750%
9/24Tuesday, Sept. 2410:10 p.m.LADLADDodgers
Stripling, Ross
Stripling
158913+1=157758%
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1472+22+26=152042%
9/25Wednesday, Sept. 2510:10 p.m.LADLADDodgers
Gonsolin, Tony
Gonsolin
158921+0=156858%
SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1472+15+24=151142%
9/26Thursday, Sept. 263:40 p.m.LADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1589+4+0=159362%
SDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
1472+9+24=150538%
9/27Friday, Sept. 279:40 p.m.SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1472+142=148442%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1513+2+26=154158%
9/28Saturday, Sept. 288:10 p.m.SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1472+14+0=148642%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1513+2+24=153958%
9/29Sunday, Sept. 293:10 p.m.SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1472+14+0=148642%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1513+2+24=153958%

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
9/15Sunday, Sept. 153:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Quantrill, Cal
Quantrill
147412+0=146246%5
COLCOLRockies
Gonzalez, Chi Chi
Gonzalez
147813+24=148954%10
9/14Saturday, Sept. 148:10 p.m.SDSDPadres
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
1475+0+0=147550%10
COLCOLRockies
Lambert, Peter
Lambert
147723+24=147850%11
9/13Friday, Sept. 138:40 p.m.SDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
1476+143=148750%8
COLCOLRockies
Hoffman, Jeff
Hoffman
147611+24=148950%10
9/12Thursday, Sept. 123:40 p.m.CHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1532+17+0=154955%4
SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1477+12+24=151345%1
9/11Wednesday, Sept. 1110 p.m.CHCCHCCubs
Hamels, Cole
Hamels
15343+0=153152%0
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1475+16+24=151548%4
9/10Tuesday, Sept. 1010:10 p.m.CHCCHCCubs
Quintana, Jose
Quintana
1535+5+0=154056%8
SDSDPadres
Bolanos, Ronald
Bolanos
1474+3+24=150144%9
9/9Monday, Sept. 910:10 p.m.CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1533+194=154858%10
SDSDPadres
Quantrill, Cal
Quantrill
14766+24=149442%2
9/8Sunday, Sept. 84:10 p.m.COLCOLRockies
Lambert, Peter
Lambert
147624+0=145244%1
SDSDPadres
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
14754+24=149556%2
9/7Saturday, Sept. 78:40 p.m.COLCOLRockies
Hoffman, Jeff
Hoffman
147810+0=146844%0
SDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
1474+11+24=150956%3
9/6Friday, Sept. 610:10 p.m.COLCOLRockies
Melville, Tim
Melville
14767+1=147044%3
SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1475+12+24=151156%2
9/4Wednesday, Sept. 49:40 p.m.SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1476+11+0=148740%1
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1520+16+24=156060%4
9/3Tuesday, Sept. 39:40 p.m.SDSDPadres
Bolanos, Ronald
Bolanos
14771+0=147643%1
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Kelly, Merrill
Kelly
151914+24=152957%2
9/2Monday, Sept. 24:10 p.m.SDSDPadres
Quantrill, Cal
Quantrill
1479+43=148044%7
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Leake, Mike
Leake
151716+24=152556%14
9/1Sunday, Sept. 14:05 p.m.SDSDPadres
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
14773+0=147442%8
SFSFGiants
Samardzija, Jeff
Samardzija
1482+22+24=152858%4
8/31Saturday, Aug. 319:05 p.m.SDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
1475+12+0=148748%4
SFSFGiants
Webb, Logan
Webb
14846+24=150252%1
8/30Friday, Aug. 3010:15 p.m.SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1477+13+0=149043%3
SFSFGiants
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
1482+32+24=153857%8
8/29Thursday, Aug. 299:45 p.m.SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1476+82=148246%5
SFSFGiants
Rodriguez, Dereck
Rodriguez
14832+26=150754%3
8/28Wednesday, Aug. 289:10 p.m.LADLADDodgers
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
159113+0=157861%6
SDSDPadres
Wingenter, Trey
Wingenter
14771+24=150039%4
8/27Tuesday, Aug. 2710:10 p.m.LADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1589+15+0=160462%9
SDSDPadres
Quantrill, Cal
Quantrill
1479+14+24=151738%0
8/26Monday, Aug. 2610:10 p.m.LADLADDodgers
May, Dustin
May
1590301=155959%3
SDSDPadres
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
14774+24=149741%4
8/25Sunday, Aug. 254:10 p.m.BOSBOSRed Sox
Johnson, Brian
Johnson
154616+0=153053%1
SDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
1476+11+24=151147%3
8/24Saturday, Aug. 248:40 p.m.BOSBOSRed Sox
Eovaldi, Nathan
Eovaldi
15454+0=154154%5
SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1477+13+24=151446%4
8/23Friday, Aug. 2310:10 p.m.BOSBOSRed Sox
Rodriguez, Eduardo
Rodriguez
1542+142=155456%11
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1480+12+22=151444%0
8/21Wednesday, Aug. 2112:35 p.m.SDSDPadres
Strahm, Matt
Strahm
14816+0=147540%2
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1504+18+24=154660%4
8/20Tuesday, Aug. 207:10 p.m.SDSDPadres
Quantrill, Cal
Quantrill
1482+9+0=149141%2
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1503+28+24=155559%3
8/19Monday, Aug. 197:10 p.m.SDSDPadres
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
148152=147441%3
CINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
1504+12+24=154059%2
8/18Sunday, Aug. 181:05 p.m.SDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
1479+8+0=148743%3
PHIPHIPhillies
Vargas, Jason
Vargas
1509+4+24=153757%2
8/17Saturday, Aug. 177:05 p.m.SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1478+13+0=149146%5
PHIPHIPhillies
Eflin, Zach
Eflin
151018+24=151654%3
8/16Friday, Aug. 167:05 p.m.SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1480+182=149645%4
PHIPHIPhillies
Velasquez, Vince
Velasquez
15081+24=153155%8
8/14Wednesday, Aug. 143:40 p.m.TBTBRays
Beeks, Jalen
Beeks
154647+0=149948%2
SDSDPadres
Quantrill, Cal
Quantrill
1477+8+24=150952%7
8/13Tuesday, Aug. 1310:10 p.m.TBTBRays
McKay, Brendan
McKay
154423+0=152153%7
SDSDPadres
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
14794+24=149947%5
8/12Monday, Aug. 1210:10 p.m.TBTBRays
Castillo, Diego
Castillo
1542183=152151%10
SDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
1481+9+24=151449%4
8/11Sunday, Aug. 113:40 p.m.COLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1491+28+0=151950%8
SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1483+12+24=151950%3
8/10Saturday, Aug. 108:40 p.m.COLCOLRockies
Gonzalez, Chi Chi
Gonzalez
149320+0=147343%5
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1482+19+24=152557%8
8/9Friday, Aug. 910:10 p.m.COLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
14954+0=149148%1
SDSDPadres
Quantrill, Cal
Quantrill
1480+1+24=150552%7
8/8Thursday, Aug. 810:10 p.m.COLCOLRockies
Gray, Jon
Gray
1498+193=151452%3
SDSDPadres
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
1477+1+21=149948%9
8/7Wednesday, Aug. 76:40 p.m.SDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
1478+8+0=148653%2
SEASEAMariners
Kikuchi, Yusei
Kikuchi
146118+24=146747%3
8/6Tuesday, Aug. 610:10 p.m.SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1476+81=148349%9
SEASEAMariners
Wisler, Matt
Wisler
1463+6+22=149151%4
8/4Sunday, Aug. 44:10 p.m.SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1477+26+0=150337%10
LADLADDodgers
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
158513+24=159663%11
8/3Saturday, Aug. 39:10 p.m.SDSDPadres
Quantrill, Cal
Quantrill
1477+2+0=147931%1
LADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1584+11+24=161969%4
8/2Friday, Aug. 210:10 p.m.SDSDPadres
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
14751+0=147436%5
LADLADDodgers
May, Dustin
May
158635+24=157564%2
8/1Thursday, Aug. 110:10 p.m.SDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
1476+10+1=148732%2
LADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1585+11+21=161768%8
7/30Tuesday, July 303:40 p.m.BALBALOrioles
Eshelman, Tom
Eshelman
14159+0=140635%8
SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1479+8+24=151165%5
7/29Monday, July 2910:10 p.m.BALBALOrioles
Hess, David
Hess
1416181=139732%1
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1477+25+24=152668%8
7/28Sunday, July 284:10 p.m.SFSFGiants
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
1484+27+0=151151%7
SDSDPadres
Morejon, Adrian
Morejon
1478+0+24=150249%6
7/27Saturday, July 278:40 p.m.SFSFGiants
Anderson, Shaun
Anderson
148512+0=147346%1
SDSDPadres
Quantrill, Cal
Quantrill
1477+1+24=150254%5
7/26Friday, July 2610:10 p.m.SFSFGiants
Samardzija, Jeff
Samardzija
1484+6+0=149048%2
SDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
1478+8+20=150652%1
7/25Thursday, July 2512:10 p.m.SDSDPadres
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
1479+3+0=148238%0
NYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1505+41+24=157062%4
7/24Wednesday, July 247:10 p.m.SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1477+7+0=148442%7
NYMNYMMets
Syndergaard, Noah
Syndergaard
1508+6+24=153858%2
7/23Tuesday, July 237:10 p.m.SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1478+281=150548%2
NYMNYMMets
Vargas, Jason
Vargas
150612+22=151652%5
7/21Sunday, July 212:20 p.m.SDSDPadres
Morejon, Adrian
Morejon
14752+0=147336%5
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1537+15+24=157664%1
7/20Saturday, July 202:20 p.m.SDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
1476+12+0=148840%5
CHCCHCCubs
Quintana, Jose
Quintana
15364+24=155660%6
7/19Friday, July 192:20 p.m.SDSDPadres
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
1477+53=147939%5
CHCCHCCubs
Lester, Jon
Lester
15357+26=155461%6
7/18Thursday, July 1812:10 p.m.SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1478+8+0=148652%3
MIAMIAMarlins
Smith, Caleb
Smith
1444+8+24=147648%4
7/17Wednesday, July 177:10 p.m.SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1477+21+0=149855%3
MIAMIAMarlins
Richards, Trevor
Richards
14456+24=146345%2
7/16Tuesday, July 167:10 p.m.SDSDPadres
Allen, Logan
Allen
147932=147449%7
MIAMIAMarlins
Yamamoto, Jordan
Yamamoto
1442+11+26=147951%12
7/14Sunday, July 144:10 p.m.ATLATLBraves
Soroka, Mike
Soroka
1533+26+0=155959%4
SDSDPadres
Quantrill, Cal
Quantrill
14819+24=149641%1
7/13Saturday, July 138:40 p.m.ATLATLBraves
Teheran, Julio
Teheran
1532+10+0=154254%7
SDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
1482+11+24=151746%5
7/12Friday, July 1210:10 p.m.ATLATLBraves
Keuchel, Dallas
Keuchel
1531+14+3=154854%5
SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1483+10+30=152346%3
7/7Sunday, July 74:10 p.m.SDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
1481+11+0=149237%5
LADLADDodgers
Stripling, Ross
Stripling
158218+24=158863%3
7/6Saturday, July 610:10 p.m.SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1479+15+0=149436%3
LADLADDodgers
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
158410+24=159864%1
7/5Friday, July 510:10 p.m.SDSDPadres
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
1478+2+0=148032%3
LADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1585+2+24=161168%2
7/4Thursday, July 49:10 p.m.SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1479+121=149032%1
LADLADDodgers
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1584+11+24=161968%5
7/3Wednesday, July 39:10 p.m.SFSFGiants
Anderson, Shaun
Anderson
1465+4+0=146945%7
SDSDPadres
Quantrill, Cal
Quantrill
14803+24=150155%5
7/2Tuesday, July 210:10 p.m.SFSFGiants
Beede, Tyler
Beede
146218+0=144441%10
SDSDPadres
Strahm, Matt
Strahm
1484+3+24=151159%4
7/1Monday, July 110:10 p.m.SFSFGiants
Samardzija, Jeff
Samardzija
1458+02=145641%13
SDSDPadres
Allen, Logan
Allen
1488+6+24=151859%2
6/30Sunday, June 304:10 p.m.STLSTLCardinals
Mikolas, Miles
Mikolas
1512+13+0=152550%5
SDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
1489+9+24=152250%3
6/29Saturday, June 2910:10 p.m.STLSTLCardinals
Hudson, Dakota
Hudson
1515+1+0=151650%2
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1486+9+24=151950%12
6/28Friday, June 2810:10 p.m.STLSTLCardinals
Wacha, Michael
Wacha
1517132=150249%1
SDSDPadres
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
1485+0+22=150751%3
6/26Wednesday, June 263:05 p.m.SDSDPadres
Strahm, Matt
Strahm
1483+2+0=148557%10
BALBALOrioles
Bundy, Dylan
Bundy
1393+17+24=143443%5
6/25Tuesday, June 257:05 p.m.SDSDPadres
Allen, Logan
Allen
1481+6+0=148758%8
BALBALOrioles
Yacabonis, Jimmy
Yacabonis
1395+16+22=143342%3
6/23Sunday, June 231:35 p.m.SDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
1482+11+0=149348%10
PITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
14887+24=150552%11
6/22Saturday, June 224:05 p.m.SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1484+11+0=149549%3
PITPITPirates
Archer, Chris
Archer
14866+24=150451%6
6/21Friday, June 217:05 p.m.SDSDPadres
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
148522=148146%1
PITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1485+0+26=151154%2
6/19Wednesday, June 193:40 p.m.MILMILBrewers
Davies, Zach
Davies
1528+9+0=153754%7
SDSDPadres
Strahm, Matt
Strahm
1484+5+24=151346%8
6/18Tuesday, June 1810:10 p.m.MILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1530+18+0=154856%1
SDSDPadres
Allen, Logan
Allen
14813+24=150244%4
6/17Monday, June 1710:10 p.m.MILMILBrewers
Chacin, Jhoulys
Chacin
1531+02=152953%0
SDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
1480+8+21=150947%2
6/16Sunday, June 163:10 p.m.SDSDPadres
Margevicius, Nick
Margevicius
147921+0=145839%14
COLCOLRockies
Lambert, Peter
Lambert
15173+24=153861%13
6/15Saturday, June 158:10 p.m.SDSDPadres
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
1480+1+0=148138%8
COLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1516+30+24=157062%14
6/14Friday, June 148:40 p.m.SDSDPadres
Quantrill, Cal
Quantrill
14785+0=147343%16
COLCOLRockies
Hoffman, Jeff
Hoffman
151822+24=152057%12
6/13Thursday, June 138:40 p.m.SDSDPadres
Strahm, Matt
Strahm
1479+93=148541%6
COLCOLRockies
Gray, Jon
Gray
1517+6+24=154759%9
6/12Wednesday, June 129:45 p.m.SDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
1481+5+0=148652%2
SFSFGiants
Anderson, Shaun
Anderson
14512+24=147348%4
6/11Tuesday, June 119:45 p.m.SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1482+12+0=149456%5
SFSFGiants
Beede, Tyler
Beede
145023+26=145344%6
6/9Sunday, June 94:10 p.m.WSHWSHNationals
Strasburg, Stephen
Strasburg
1521+17+0=153859%5
SDSDPadres
Perdomo, Luis
Perdomo
148329+24=147841%2
6/8Saturday, June 810 p.m.WSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1519+37+0=155657%4
SDSDPadres
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
1485+0+24=150943%1
6/7Friday, June 710:10 p.m.WSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
152137+0=148451%4
SDSDPadres
Margevicius, Nick
Margevicius
148429+24=147949%5
6/6Thursday, June 610:10 p.m.WSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
1522+94=152752%4
SDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
1482+6+24=151248%5
6/5Wednesday, June 53:40 p.m.PHIPHIPhillies
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
15233+0=152053%7
SDSDPadres
Quantrill, Cal
Quantrill
14848+24=150047%5
6/4Tuesday, June 410:10 p.m.PHIPHIPhillies
Eickhoff, Jerad
Eickhoff
15229+0=151347%9
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1486+23+24=153353%6
6/3Monday, June 310 p.m.PHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1524+291=155257%2
SDSDPadres
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
14833+24=150443%8
6/2Sunday, June 26:10 p.m.MIAMIAMarlins
Richards, Trevor
Richards
1432+0+0=143237%9
SDSDPadres
Strahm, Matt
Strahm
1486+15+24=152563%3
6/1Saturday, June 110 p.m.MIAMIAMarlins
Urena, Jose
Urena
1429+3+0=143242%9
SDSDPadres
Margevicius, Nick
Margevicius
148925+24=148858%3
5/31Friday, May 3110:10 p.m.MIAMIAMarlins
Smith, Caleb
Smith
1430+154=144140%2
SDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
1488+1+22=151160%5
5/29Wednesday, May 291:05 p.m.SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1490+27+0=151736%0
NYYNYYYankees
Paxton, James
Paxton
1574+15+24=161364%7
5/28Tuesday, May 286:35 p.m.SDSDPadres
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
14888+0=148031%5
NYYNYYYankees
Tanaka, Masahiro
Tanaka
1575+18+24=161769%4
5/27Monday, May 271:05 p.m.SDSDPadres
Strahm, Matt
Strahm
1489+142=150142%2
NYYNYYYankees
Green, Chad
Green
157436+21=155958%5
5/26Sunday, May 261:07 p.m.SDSDPadres
Erlin, Robbie
Erlin
149217+0=147547%1
TORTORBlue Jays
Stroman, Marcus
Stroman
1465+10+24=149953%10
5/25Saturday, May 253:07 p.m.SDSDPadres
Quantrill, Cal
Quantrill
148814+0=147450%19
TORTORBlue Jays
Jackson, Edwin
Jackson
146917+24=147650%4
5/24Friday, May 247:07 p.m.SDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
1486+02=148448%6
TORTORBlue Jays
Thornton, Trent
Thornton
1471+3+24=149852%3
5/22Wednesday, May 223:40 p.m.ARIARIDiamondbacks
Kelly, Merrill
Kelly
150917+0=149249%2
SDSDPadres
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
148412+24=149651%5
5/21Tuesday, May 2110:10 p.m.ARIARIDiamondbacks
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1510+35+0=154553%2
SDSDPadres
Strahm, Matt
Strahm
1483+16+24=152347%3
5/20Monday, May 2010:10 p.m.ARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
1511+02=150947%1
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1482+26+24=153253%2
5/19Sunday, May 194:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1496+0+0=149649%6
SDSDPadres
Quantrill, Cal
Quantrill
14845+24=150351%4
5/18Saturday, May 188:40 p.m.PITPITPirates
DuRapau, Montana
DuRapau
149317+0=147646%7
SDSDPadres
Margevicius, Nick
Margevicius
14869+24=150154%2
5/17Friday, May 1710:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
149213+0=147946%5
SDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
14883+24=150954%3
5/16Thursday, May 1610:10 p.m.PITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
1493+202=151152%3
SDSDPadres
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
148714+23=149648%4
5/15Wednesday, May 1510:10 p.m.SDSDPadres
Strahm, Matt
Strahm
1488+15+0=150339%0
LADLADDodgers
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
157015+24=157961%2
5/14Tuesday, May 1410 p.m.SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1489+321=152038%3
LADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1569+7+26=160262%6
5/12Sunday, May 123:10 p.m.SDSDPadres
Margevicius, Nick
Margevicius
14906+0=148445%7
COLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
151015+24=151955%10
5/11Saturday, May 118:10 p.m.SDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
14899+0=148042%4
COLCOLRockies
Gray, Jon
Gray
15111+24=153458%3
5/10Friday, May 108:40 p.m.SDSDPadres
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
149191=148138%2
COLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1509+32+24=156562%12
5/8Wednesday, May 83:40 p.m.NYMNYMMets
Font, Wilmer
Font
15136+0=150747%2
SDSDPadres
Strahm, Matt
Strahm
1490+13+24=152753%3
5/7Tuesday, May 710:10 p.m.NYMNYMMets
Syndergaard, Noah
Syndergaard
1512+9+0=152152%7
SDSDPadres
Quantrill, Cal
Quantrill
14916+24=150948%6
5/6Monday, May 610 p.m.NYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1514+444=155453%0
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1489+23+24=153647%4
5/5Sunday, May 54:10 p.m.LADLADDodgers
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
156816+0=155256%5
SDSDPadres
Margevicius, Nick
Margevicius
14872+24=150944%8
5/4Saturday, May 48:40 p.m.LADLADDodgers
Hill, Rich
Hill
1567+7+0=157460%7
SDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
148810+24=150240%6
5/3Friday, May 310:10 p.m.LADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1566+15+0=158162%4
SDSDPadres
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
14899+20=150038%3
5/2Thursday, May 212:10 p.m.SDSDPadres
Strahm, Matt
Strahm
1485+12+0=149742%11
ATLATLBraves
Foltynewicz, Mike
Foltynewicz
1515+18+24=155758%2
5/1Wednesday, May 17:20 p.m.SDSDPadres
Quantrill, Cal
Quantrill
14867+0=147940%1
ATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1513+14+24=155160%5
4/30Tuesday, April 307:20 p.m.SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1485+20+0=150545%4
ATLATLBraves
Teheran, Julio
Teheran
1514+5+24=154355%3
4/29Monday, April 297:20 p.m.SDSDPadres
Margevicius, Nick
Margevicius
148613=148242%1
ATLATLBraves
Soroka, Mike
Soroka
1513+0+24=153758%3
4/28Sunday, April 281:35 p.m.SDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
14874+0=148344%6
WSHWSHNationals
Hellickson, Jeremy
Hellickson
152827+24=152556%7
4/27Saturday, April 274:05 p.m.SDSDPadres
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
148411+0=147337%8
WSHWSHNationals
Strasburg, Stephen
Strasburg
1531+9+24=156463%3
4/26Friday, April 267:05 p.m.SDSDPadres
Strahm, Matt
Strahm
1483+82=148937%4
WSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1532+29+22=158363%3
4/24Wednesday, April 243:40 p.m.SEASEAMariners
Hernandez, Felix
Hernandez
150418+0=148646%0
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1482+9+24=151554%1
4/23Tuesday, April 2310:10 p.m.SEASEAMariners
Swanson, Erik
Swanson
1506+3+1=151050%3
SDSDPadres
Margevicius, Nick
Margevicius
1480+1+26=150750%6
4/21Sunday, April 214:10 p.m.CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
149422+0=147246%3
SDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
14793+24=150054%4
4/20Saturday, April 208:40 p.m.CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1493+29+0=152254%4
SDSDPadres
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
14808+24=149646%2
4/19Friday, April 1910:10 p.m.CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
149210+0=148246%3
SDSDPadres
Strahm, Matt
Strahm
1482+1+24=150754%2
4/18Thursday, April 1810:10 p.m.CINCINReds
Roark, Tanner
Roark
149051=148445%4
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1483+12+26=152155%1
4/16Tuesday, April 169:10 p.m.COLCOLRockies
Gray, Jon
Gray
15016+0=149547%8
SDSDPadres
Margevicius, Nick
Margevicius
1486+9+24=151953%2
4/15Monday, April 1510:10 p.m.COLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
1500132=148546%5
SDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
14881+22=150954%2
4/14Sunday, April 144:10 p.m.SDSDPadres
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
14908+0=148242%4
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1495+17+24=153658%8
4/13Saturday, April 138:10 p.m.SDSDPadres
Strahm, Matt
Strahm
14897+0=148245%5
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Kelly, Merrill
Kelly
14962+24=151855%4
4/12Friday, April 129:40 p.m.SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1487+5+0=149248%2
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
149715+24=150652%1
4/11Thursday, April 119:40 p.m.SDSDPadres
Avila, Pedro
Avila
148623=148145%7
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Godley, Zack
Godley
14988+24=151455%6
4/10Wednesday, April 103:45 p.m.SDSDPadres
Margevicius, Nick
Margevicius
1485+8+0=149349%3
SFSFGiants
Rodriguez, Dereck
Rodriguez
1463+12+24=149951%1
4/9Tuesday, April 99:45 p.m.SDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
1487+6+0=149352%2
SFSFGiants
Holland, Derek
Holland
14614+24=148148%7
4/8Monday, April 89:45 p.m.SDSDPadres
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
148664=147646%6
SFSFGiants
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
1462+20+24=150654%5
4/7Sunday, April 72:15 p.m.SDSDPadres
Strahm, Matt
Strahm
14879+0=147843%1
STLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
152317+24=153057%4
4/6Saturday, April 62:15 p.m.SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1486+3+0=148942%6
STLSTLCardinals
Wacha, Michael
Wacha
15251+24=154858%4
4/5Friday, April 54:15 p.m.SDSDPadres
Margevicius, Nick
Margevicius
1484+32=148540%5
STLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1527+9+23=155960%3
4/3Wednesday, April 33:40 p.m.ARIARIDiamondbacks
Ray, Robbie
Ray
1498+17+0=151551%1
SDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
1482+5+24=151149%4
4/2Tuesday, April 210:10 p.m.ARIARIDiamondbacks
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1496+20+0=151651%8
SDSDPadres
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
14841+24=150749%5
4/1Monday, April 110:10 p.m.ARIARIDiamondbacks
Kelly, Merrill
Kelly
1493111=148145%10
SDSDPadres
Strahm, Matt
Strahm
1487+3+24=151455%3
3/31Sunday, March 314:10 p.m.SFSFGiants
Samardzija, Jeff
Samardzija
14658+0=145743%1
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
14863+24=150757%3
3/30Saturday, March 308:40 p.m.SFSFGiants
Rodriguez, Dereck
Rodriguez
1463+14+0=147746%3
SDSDPadres
Margevicius, Nick
Margevicius
14872+24=150954%2
3/29Friday, March 2910:10 p.m.SFSFGiants
Holland, Derek
Holland
14655+0=146043%1
SDSDPadres
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
1486+1+24=151157%4
3/28Thursday, March 284:10 p.m.SFSFGiants
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
1466+202=148447%0
SDSDPadres
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
14843+24=150553%2

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice and Gus Wezerek. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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