Updated Aug. 4, 2021, at 1:37 AM

2021 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Cubs have a <1% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1487, down 7 points from last week.

NL Central standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
BrewersBrewers64-4493%90%
RedsReds56-517.520%8%
CardinalsCardinals53-5310.03%2%
CubsCubs51-5713.0<1%<1%
PiratesPirates41-6622.5<1%<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/4Wednesday, Aug. 48:40 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
1487+8+0=149551%
COLCOLRockies
Gray, Jon
Gray
1460+7+24=149149%
8/5Thursday, Aug. 53:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
148727+0=146042%
COLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1460+31+24=151558%
8/6Friday, Aug. 62:20 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Rodon, Carlos
Rodon
1539+81=154652%
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1487+26+21=153448%
8/7Saturday, Aug. 72:20 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Lynn, Lance
Lynn
1539+24+0=156357%
CHCCHCCubs
Alzolay, Adbert
Alzolay
1487+4+24=151543%
8/8Sunday, Aug. 87 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Cease, Dylan
Cease
153911+0=152852%
CHCCHCCubs
Davies, Zach
Davies
1487+2+24=151348%
8/9Monday, Aug. 98:05 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
1539281=151049%
CHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
1487+8+24=151951%
8/10Tuesday, Aug. 108:05 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
153924+0=151554%
CHCCHCCubs
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
148727+24=148446%
8/11Wednesday, Aug. 118:05 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Peralta, Freddy
Peralta
1539+14+0=155352%
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1487+26+24=153748%
8/12Thursday, Aug. 122:20 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Burnes, Corbin
Burnes
1539+23+0=156257%
CHCCHCCubs
Alzolay, Adbert
Alzolay
1487+4+24=151543%
8/13Friday, Aug. 137:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Davies, Zach
Davies
1487+23=148651%
MIAMIAMarlins
Luzardo, Jesus
Luzardo
147820+22=148049%
8/14Saturday, Aug. 146:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
1487+8+0=149549%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1478+1+24=150351%
8/15Sunday, Aug. 151:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+2+0=148948%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1478+1+24=150352%
8/16Monday, Aug. 167:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+23=148644%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1506+2+22=153056%
8/17Tuesday, Aug. 177:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+2+0=148944%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1506+2+24=153256%
8/18Wednesday, Aug. 1812:35 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+2+0=148944%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1506+2+24=153256%
8/20Friday, Aug. 202:20 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
145442=144841%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+2+24=151359%
8/21Saturday, Aug. 212:20 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
14544+0=145041%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+2+24=151359%
8/22Sunday, Aug. 222:20 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
14544+0=145041%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+2+24=151359%
8/23Monday, Aug. 238:05 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1460+03=145742%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+2+24=151358%
8/24Tuesday, Aug. 248:05 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+0=146043%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+2+24=151357%
8/25Wednesday, Aug. 252:20 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+0=146043%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+2+24=151357%
8/27Friday, Aug. 278:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+2+1=149040%
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1539+1+22=156260%
8/28Saturday, Aug. 287:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+2+0=148939%
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1539+1+24=156461%
8/29Sunday, Aug. 292:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+2+0=148939%
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1539+1+24=156461%
8/31Tuesday, Aug. 318:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+2+0=148947%
MINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
14911+21=151153%
9/1Wednesday, Sept. 18:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+2+0=148946%
MINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
14911+24=151454%
9/2Thursday, Sept. 28:05 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1430+11=143039%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+2+22=151161%
9/3Friday, Sept. 32:20 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1430+1+0=143139%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+2+24=151361%
9/4Saturday, Sept. 42:20 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1430+1+0=143139%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+2+24=151361%
9/5Sunday, Sept. 52:20 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1430+1+0=143139%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+2+24=151361%
9/6Monday, Sept. 62:20 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1506+22=150649%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+2+24=151351%
9/7Tuesday, Sept. 77:40 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1506+2+0=150849%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+2+24=151351%
9/8Wednesday, Sept. 87:40 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1506+2+0=150849%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+2+24=151351%
9/10Friday, Sept. 102:20 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1532+11=153252%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+2+26=151548%
9/11Saturday, Sept. 112:20 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1532+1+0=153353%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+2+24=151347%
9/12Sunday, Sept. 122:20 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1532+1+0=153353%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+2+24=151347%
9/14Tuesday, Sept. 147:05 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+21=148843%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1505+3+26=153457%
9/15Wednesday, Sept. 157:05 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+2+0=148944%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1505+3+24=153256%
9/16Thursday, Sept. 166:05 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+2+0=148944%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1505+3+24=153256%
9/17Friday, Sept. 178:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+23=148639%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1539+3+24=156661%
9/18Saturday, Sept. 187:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+2+0=148939%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1539+3+24=156661%
9/19Sunday, Sept. 192:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+2+0=148939%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1539+3+24=156661%
9/21Tuesday, Sept. 217:40 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
14911+0=149047%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+2+25=151453%
9/22Wednesday, Sept. 227:40 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
14911+0=149047%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+2+24=151353%
9/24Friday, Sept. 242:20 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
149361=148646%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+2+26=151554%
9/24Friday, Sept. 248:05 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
14936+0=148746%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+2+24=151354%
9/25Saturday, Sept. 252:20 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
14936+0=148746%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+2+24=151354%
9/26Sunday, Sept. 262:20 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
14936+0=148746%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+2+24=151354%
9/28Tuesday, Sept. 286:35 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+2+0=148955%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1430+1+24=145545%
9/29Wednesday, Sept. 296:35 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+2+0=148955%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1430+1+24=145545%
9/30Thursday, Sept. 306:35 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+2+0=148955%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1430+1+24=145545%
10/1Friday, Oct. 18:15 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+23=148646%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
14936+24=151154%
10/2Saturday, Oct. 27:15 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+2+0=148947%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
14936+24=151153%
10/3Sunday, Oct. 33:15 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1487+2+0=148947%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
14936+24=151153%

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/3Tuesday, Aug. 38:40 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Davies, Zach
Davies
1490+72=149554%6
COLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
145811+23=147046%13
8/1Sunday, Aug. 11:05 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Alzolay, Adbert
Alzolay
1491+4+0=149548%5
WSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
150720+24=151152%6
7/31Saturday, July 317:05 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1489+22+0=151146%6
WSHWSHNationals
Ross, Joe
Ross
1509+7+24=154054%3
7/30Friday, July 307:05 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
1490283=145941%3
WSHWSHNationals
Espino, Paolo
Espino
150810+22=152059%4
7/29Thursday, July 292:20 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1501+18+0=151949%7
CHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
1491+10+24=152551%4
7/28Wednesday, July 288:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1499+5+0=150447%8
CHCCHCCubs
Davies, Zach
Davies
1494+8+24=152653%2
7/27Tuesday, July 278:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
149728+0=146942%7
CHCCHCCubs
Alzolay, Adbert
Alzolay
1496+8+24=152858%4
7/26Monday, July 268:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
1498+92=150544%5
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1495+26+24=154556%6
7/25Sunday, July 252:20 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Smith, Caleb
Smith
14463+0=144342%1
CHCCHCCubs
Williams, Trevor
Williams
149418+24=150058%5
7/24Saturday, July 242:20 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Kelly, Merrill
Kelly
1444+24+0=146841%7
CHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
1496+9+24=152959%3
7/23Friday, July 232:20 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1446+312=147543%3
CHCCHCCubs
Davies, Zach
Davies
1494+7+22=152357%8
7/22Thursday, July 227:15 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Alzolay, Adbert
Alzolay
1495+8+0=150346%2
STLSTLCardinals
Kim, Kwang Hyun
Kim
1494+10+24=152854%3
7/21Wednesday, July 218 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1496+28+0=152449%2
STLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
1493+17+24=153451%3
7/20Tuesday, July 208:15 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Williams, Trevor
Williams
149516+0=147949%7
STLSTLCardinals
Oviedo, Johan
Oviedo
149430+24=148851%6
7/19Monday, July 198 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
1497+123=150650%3
STLSTLCardinals
Woodford, Jake
Woodford
149213+24=150350%8
7/18Sunday, July 184:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Davies, Zach
Davies
1499+8+0=150753%4
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Kelly, Merrill
Kelly
1440+21+24=148547%6
7/17Saturday, July 174:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Alzolay, Adbert
Alzolay
1497+7+0=150451%4
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1441+30+24=149549%2
7/16Friday, July 169:40 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1496+27+3=152657%5
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
1443+5+29=147743%1
7/10Saturday, July 107:15 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Kim, Kwang Hyun
Kim
1489+6+0=149544%6
CHCCHCCubs
Davies, Zach
Davies
1499+11+24=153456%0
7/9Friday, July 92:20 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
LeBlanc, Wade
LeBlanc
1490232=146538%5
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1497+27+24=154862%10
7/8Thursday, July 88 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Eflin, Zach
Eflin
15037+0=149645%8
CHCCHCCubs
Alzolay, Adbert
Alzolay
1500+9+24=153355%0
7/7Wednesday, July 78:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1506+48+0=155453%3
CHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
1498+11+24=153347%8
7/6Tuesday, July 68:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1503+8+0=151152%15
CHCCHCCubs
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
150025+24=149948%10
7/5Monday, July 58:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Moore, Matt
Moore
1499453=145138%13
CHCCHCCubs
Davies, Zach
Davies
1505+11+22=153862%3
7/4Sunday, July 41:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1506+23+0=152950%2
CINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
1502+2+24=152850%3
7/3Saturday, July 34:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Alzolay, Adbert
Alzolay
1507+7+0=151447%2
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1501+8+24=153353%3
7/2Friday, July 27:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
1507+7+0=151446%1
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1500+19+24=154354%2
6/30Wednesday, June 302:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
151018+0=149247%7
MILMILBrewers
Ashby, Aaron
Ashby
152532+24=151753%15
6/29Tuesday, June 298:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Davies, Zach
Davies
1511+12+0=152341%1
MILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1524+41+24=158959%2
6/28Monday, June 288:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1514+254=153547%4
MILMILBrewers
Peralta, Freddy
Peralta
1521+15+24=156053%14
6/27Sunday, June 277 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Alzolay, Adbert
Alzolay
1516+13+0=152937%1
LADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1589+8+24=162163%7
6/26Saturday, June 267:15 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
1517+6+0=152340%2
LADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
158917+24=159660%3
6/25Friday, June 2510:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
151820+0=149836%2
LADLADDodgers
Gonsolin, Tony
Gonsolin
158714+24=159764%6
6/24Thursday, June 2410:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Davies, Zach
Davies
1515+62=151935%4
LADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1590+17+23=163065%0
6/22Tuesday, June 228:05 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Morgan, Eli
Morgan
151330+0=148339%1
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1513+22+24=155961%7
6/21Monday, June 218:05 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Civale, Aaron
Civale
1510+122=152045%4
CHCCHCCubs
Alzolay, Adbert
Alzolay
1516+15+24=155555%0
6/20Sunday, June 202:20 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Thompson, Zach
Thompson
147814+0=146439%0
CHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
1515+6+24=154561%2
6/19Saturday, June 192:20 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Lopez, Pablo
Lopez
1474+7+0=148143%11
CHCCHCCubs
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
151914+24=152957%1
6/18Friday, June 188:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Poteet, Cody
Poteet
147011+0=145936%10
CHCCHCCubs
Davies, Zach
Davies
1522+12+21=155564%2
6/17Thursday, June 177:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1521+16+0=153746%2
NYMNYMMets
Stroman, Marcus
Stroman
15445+24=156354%0
6/16Wednesday, June 167:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Stock, Robert
Stock
15227+0=151535%3
NYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1543+57+24=162465%6
6/15Tuesday, June 157 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
1523+4+0=152744%2
NYMNYMMets
Walker, Taijuan
Walker
15421+24=156556%3
6/14Monday, June 147 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
1524143=150747%2
NYMNYMMets
Peterson, David
Peterson
154137+24=152853%5
6/13Sunday, June 137 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Martinez, Carlos
Martinez
149616+0=148040%0
CHCCHCCubs
Davies, Zach
Davies
1523+7+24=155460%2
6/12Saturday, June 127:15 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Gant, John
Gant
14983+0=149541%2
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1522+16+24=156259%7
6/11Friday, June 112:20 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Oviedo, Johan
Oviedo
149929+0=147042%5
CHCCHCCubs
Stewart, Kohl
Stewart
152015+22=152758%8
6/9Wednesday, June 94:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
151816+0=150233%3
SDSDPadres
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1564+33+24=162167%1
6/8Tuesday, June 810 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Davies, Zach
Davies
1515+4+0=151939%7
SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1567+6+24=159761%1
6/7Monday, June 710 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Alzolay, Adbert
Alzolay
1517+222=153745%4
SDSDPadres
Weathers, Ryan
Weathers
156520+24=156955%9
6/6Sunday, June 64:05 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1516+16+0=153250%4
SFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
15169+24=153150%3
6/5Saturday, June 57:15 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Stewart, Kohl
Stewart
151712+0=150540%3
SFSFGiants
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
1516+32+24=157260%4
6/4Friday, June 49:45 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
151811+0=150748%5
SFSFGiants
Kazmir, Scott
Kazmir
151414+24=152452%8
6/3Thursday, June 39:45 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Davies, Zach
Davies
1521+24=151948%2
SFSFGiants
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
15126+26=153252%7
6/2Wednesday, June 22:20 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1570+6+0=157653%1
CHCCHCCubs
Alzolay, Adbert
Alzolay
1518+16+24=155847%6
6/1Tuesday, June 18:05 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Weathers, Ryan
Weathers
157115+0=155650%3
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1517+16+24=155750%4
5/31Monday, May 312:20 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1574203=155155%2
CHCCHCCubs
Stewart, Kohl
Stewart
151519+24=152045%7
5/30Sunday, May 302:20 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1487+4+0=149144%5
CHCCHCCubs
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
15176+24=153556%1
5/29Saturday, May 292:20 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
14905+0=148542%2
CHCCHCCubs
Davies, Zach
Davies
1515+1+24=154058%10
5/28Friday, May 282:20 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
1490173=147039%0
CHCCHCCubs
Alzolay, Adbert
Alzolay
1514+14+22=155061%1
5/27Thursday, May 2712:35 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1513+17+0=153059%5
PITPITPirates
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1428+12+24=146441%3
5/26Wednesday, May 266:35 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Williams, Trevor
Williams
151124+0=148757%4
PITPITPirates
Crowe, Wil
Crowe
142913+24=144043%1
5/25Tuesday, May 256:35 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
151051=150457%4
PITPITPirates
Ponce, Cody
Ponce
1430+5+24=145943%3
5/23Sunday, May 237 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Davies, Zach
Davies
1509+1+0=151047%2
STLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
15092+24=153153%1
5/22Saturday, May 227:15 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Alzolay, Adbert
Alzolay
1510+11+0=152147%1
STLSTLCardinals
Mikolas, Miles
Mikolas
1508+11+24=154353%2
5/21Friday, May 218:15 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1507+192=152450%12
STLSTLCardinals
Martinez, Carlos
Martinez
151111+26=152650%3
5/20Thursday, May 202:20 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Ross, Joe
Ross
151319+0=149448%2
CHCCHCCubs
Williams, Trevor
Williams
150623+24=150752%5
5/19Wednesday, May 197:40 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1512+41+0=155354%4
CHCCHCCubs
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
15062+24=152846%3
5/18Tuesday, May 187:40 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
151410+0=150446%3
CHCCHCCubs
Davies, Zach
Davies
1505+2+24=153154%6
5/17Monday, May 177:40 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Lester, Jon
Lester
1515194=149244%3
CHCCHCCubs
Alzolay, Adbert
Alzolay
1503+12+22=153756%7
5/16Sunday, May 161:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1502+15+0=151756%5
DETDETTigers
Boyd, Matthew
Boyd
1438+14+24=147644%1
5/15Saturday, May 154:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Williams, Trevor
Williams
150322+0=148152%8
DETDETTigers
Urena, Jose
Urena
1437+5+24=146648%9
5/14Friday, May 147:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
15022+1=150158%4
DETDETTigers
Skubal, Tarik
Skubal
143816+24=144642%2
5/12Wednesday, May 121:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Davies, Zach
Davies
1503+1+0=150448%1
CLECLEIndians
Hentges, Sam
Hentges
151925+24=151852%2
5/11Tuesday, May 116:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Alzolay, Adbert
Alzolay
1503+13+0=151639%2
CLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1518+45+29=159261%3
5/9Sunday, May 92:20 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1437+13+0=145036%6
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1505+19+24=154864%5
5/8Saturday, May 82:20 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Crowe, Wil
Crowe
143822+0=141637%2
CHCCHCCubs
Williams, Trevor
Williams
150422+24=150663%3
5/7Friday, May 72:20 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Cahill, Trevor
Cahill
143962=143137%2
CHCCHCCubs
Davies, Zach
Davies
15033+26=152663%3
5/5Wednesday, May 57:30 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1595+6+0=160159%5
CHCCHCCubs
Alzolay, Adbert
Alzolay
1502+9+24=153541%6
5/4Tuesday, May 47:40 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
1596+26+0=162264%3
CHCCHCCubs
Thompson, Keegan
Thompson
15013+24=152236%4
5/4Tuesday, May 42:20 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1599+13+1=161360%1
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1498+18+24=154040%7
5/2Sunday, May 21:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Williams, Trevor
Williams
149813+0=148543%12
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1502+8+24=153457%13
5/1Saturday, May 14:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Davies, Zach
Davies
14973+0=149444%3
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1503+8+24=153556%2
4/30Friday, April 307:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
1499+52=150248%6
CINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
150110+22=151352%8
4/29Thursday, April 297:20 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Alzolay, Adbert
Alzolay
1496+3+0=149945%9
ATLATLBraves
Wilson, Bryse
Wilson
153225+24=153155%3
4/28Wednesday, April 287:20 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1499+24+0=152349%0
ATLATLBraves
Ynoa, Huascar
Ynoa
152919+24=153451%10
4/27Tuesday, April 277:20 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Williams, Trevor
Williams
150117+0=148439%0
ATLATLBraves
Anderson, Ian
Anderson
1527+10+24=156161%5
4/26Monday, April 267 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Davies, Zach
Davies
150123=149639%7
ATLATLBraves
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1526+22+24=157261%8
4/25Sunday, April 252:20 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1523+34+0=155754%6
CHCCHCCubs
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
1504+0+24=152846%0
4/24Saturday, April 242:20 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Peralta, Freddy
Peralta
152213+0=150948%4
CHCCHCCubs
Alzolay, Adbert
Alzolay
15053+24=152652%3
4/23Friday, April 232:20 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
1526102=151445%2
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1501+25+24=155055%15
4/22Thursday, April 227:40 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
153529+0=150650%3
CHCCHCCubs
Williams, Trevor
Williams
150019+24=150550%4
4/21Wednesday, April 217:40 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Peterson, David
Peterson
153822+0=151649%4
CHCCHCCubs
Davies, Zach
Davies
1496+1+24=152151%16
4/20Tuesday, April 207:30 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Walker, Taijuan
Walker
1540151=152450%1
CHCCHCCubs
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
14951+26=152050%3
4/18Sunday, April 187 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Wilson, Bryse
Wilson
152616+0=151043%13
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1499+35+24=155857%4
4/17Saturday, April 172:20 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Ynoa, Huascar
Ynoa
153016+0=151453%4
CHCCHCCubs
Williams, Trevor
Williams
149523+24=149647%13
4/16Friday, April 162:20 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Wright, Kyle
Wright
1528393=148645%5
CHCCHCCubs
Davies, Zach
Davies
1497+2+25=152455%2
4/14Wednesday, April 141:40 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
14993+0=149640%0
MILMILBrewers
Burnes, Corbin
Burnes
1520+25+24=156960%7
4/13Tuesday, April 137:40 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
1498+4+0=150239%3
MILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1522+33+24=157961%2
4/12Monday, April 127:40 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Alzolay, Adbert
Alzolay
149982=148944%3
MILMILBrewers
Peralta, Freddy
Peralta
152014+22=152856%6
4/11Sunday, April 111:05 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Williams, Trevor
Williams
150220+0=148254%1
PITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1430+3+24=145746%7
4/10Saturday, April 106:35 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Davies, Zach
Davies
1505+8+2=151559%2
PITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
14273+26=145041%8
4/8Thursday, April 81:35 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
150462=149655%4
PITPITPirates
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1428+8+22=145845%2
4/7Wednesday, April 72:20 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1516+30+0=154648%4
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1505+30+24=155952%2
4/6Tuesday, April 67:40 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Peralta, Freddy
Peralta
151315+0=149846%4
CHCCHCCubs
Alzolay, Adbert
Alzolay
15087+24=152554%0
4/5Monday, April 57:40 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
151541=151051%3
CHCCHCCubs
Williams, Trevor
Williams
150625+24=150549%5
4/4Sunday, April 42:20 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
14343+0=143135%3
CHCCHCCubs
Davies, Zach
Davies
1506+9+24=153965%4
4/3Saturday, April 32:20 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1436+7+2=144539%1
CHCCHCCubs
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
15047+26=152361%5
4/1Thursday, April 12:20 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Kuhl, Chad
Kuhl
143432=142931%5
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1506+35+24=156569%3

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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