Phillies | 2021 MLB Predictions

The Phillies have a 15% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1500, down 8 points from last week.

NL East standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Mets Mets55-48	—	57%	55%
Braves Braves52-53	4.0	30%	27%
Phillies Phillies51-53	4.5	15%	14%
Nationals Nationals48-56	7.5	4%	4%
Marlins Marlins44-60	11.5	<1%	<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning
8/1Sunday, Aug. 11:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Gibson	1500	+12	+0	=1512	59%
8/1Sunday, Aug. 11:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1432	–10	+24	=1446	41%
8/2Monday, Aug. 27 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Moore	1500	–40	–2	=1458	41%
8/2Monday, Aug. 27 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1507	–9	+24	=1522	59%
8/3Tuesday, Aug. 37:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1500	+46	+0	=1546	55%
8/3Tuesday, Aug. 37:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1507	–18	+24	=1513	45%
8/4Wednesday, Aug. 47:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Velasquez	1500	–27	+0	=1473	42%
8/4Wednesday, Aug. 47:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Espino	1507	–4	+24	=1527	58%
8/5Thursday, Aug. 54:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1500	+19	+0	=1519	48%
8/5Thursday, Aug. 54:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Ross	1507	+3	+24	=1534	52%
8/6Friday, Aug. 67:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Stroman	1530	+4	–3	=1531	49%
8/6Friday, Aug. 67:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Gibson	1500	+12	+22	=1534	51%
8/7Saturday, Aug. 74:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Megill	1530	–4	+0	=1526	56%
8/7Saturday, Aug. 74:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Moore	1500	–40	+24	=1484	44%
8/8Sunday, Aug. 81:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Walker	1530	–11	+0	=1519	43%
8/8Sunday, Aug. 81:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1500	+46	+24	=1570	57%
8/10Tuesday, Aug. 107:05 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Buehler	1590	+27	–2	=1615	66%
8/10Tuesday, Aug. 107:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Velasquez	1500	–27	+26	=1499	34%
8/11Wednesday, Aug. 117:05 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Scherzer	1590	+20	+0	=1610	59%
8/11Wednesday, Aug. 117:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1500	+19	+24	=1543	41%
8/12Thursday, Aug. 121:05 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1590	+1	+0	=1591	59%
8/12Thursday, Aug. 121:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+24	=1525	41%
8/13Friday, Aug. 137:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1505	+2	–3	=1504	47%
8/13Friday, Aug. 137:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+24	=1525	53%
8/14Saturday, Aug. 144:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1505	+2	+0	=1507	47%
8/14Saturday, Aug. 144:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+24	=1525	53%
8/15Sunday, Aug. 151:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1505	+2	+0	=1507	47%
8/15Sunday, Aug. 151:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+24	=1525	53%
8/17Tuesday, Aug. 179:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	–2	=1499	53%
8/17Tuesday, Aug. 179:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1444	+8	+26	=1478	47%
8/18Wednesday, Aug. 189:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+0	=1501	54%
8/18Wednesday, Aug. 189:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1444	+8	+24	=1476	46%
8/19Thursday, Aug. 193:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+0	=1501	54%
8/19Thursday, Aug. 193:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1444	+8	+24	=1476	46%
8/20Friday, Aug. 2010:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	–2	=1499	39%
8/20Friday, Aug. 2010:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1551	–1	+23	=1573	61%
8/21Saturday, Aug. 218:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+0	=1501	40%
8/21Saturday, Aug. 218:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1551	–1	+24	=1574	60%
8/22Sunday, Aug. 223:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+0	=1501	40%
8/22Sunday, Aug. 223:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1551	–1	+24	=1574	60%
8/24Tuesday, Aug. 247:05 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1560	–6	–1	=1553	54%
8/24Tuesday, Aug. 247:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+22	=1523	46%
8/25Wednesday, Aug. 257:05 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1560	–6	+0	=1554	54%
8/25Wednesday, Aug. 257:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+24	=1525	46%
8/26Thursday, Aug. 267:05 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1444	+8	–2	=1450	39%
8/26Thursday, Aug. 267:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+24	=1525	61%
8/27Friday, Aug. 277:05 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1444	+8	+0	=1452	40%
8/27Friday, Aug. 277:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+24	=1525	60%
8/28Saturday, Aug. 286:05 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1444	+8	+0	=1452	40%
8/28Saturday, Aug. 286:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+24	=1525	60%
8/29Sunday, Aug. 291:05 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1444	+8	+0	=1452	40%
8/29Sunday, Aug. 291:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+24	=1525	60%
8/30Monday, Aug. 307:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	–2	=1499	47%
8/30Monday, Aug. 307:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1507	–9	+22	=1520	53%
8/31Tuesday, Aug. 317:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+0	=1501	47%
8/31Tuesday, Aug. 317:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1507	–9	+24	=1522	53%
9/1Wednesday, Sept. 17:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+0	=1501	47%
9/1Wednesday, Sept. 17:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1507	–9	+24	=1522	53%
9/3Friday, Sept. 37:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	–1	=1500	51%
9/3Friday, Sept. 37:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1476	+1	+21	=1498	49%
9/4Saturday, Sept. 46:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+0	=1501	50%
9/4Saturday, Sept. 46:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	50%
9/5Sunday, Sept. 51:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+0	=1501	50%
9/5Sunday, Sept. 51:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	50%
9/6Monday, Sept. 62:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	–3	=1498	40%
9/6Monday, Sept. 62:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+24	=1565	60%
9/7Tuesday, Sept. 77:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+0	=1501	41%
9/7Tuesday, Sept. 77:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+24	=1565	59%
9/8Wednesday, Sept. 87:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+0	=1501	41%
9/8Wednesday, Sept. 87:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+24	=1565	59%
9/9Thursday, Sept. 97:05 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1459	+0	–4	=1455	40%
9/9Thursday, Sept. 97:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+21	=1522	60%
9/10Friday, Sept. 107:05 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1459	+0	+0	=1459	41%
9/10Friday, Sept. 107:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+24	=1525	59%
9/11Saturday, Sept. 116:05 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1459	+0	+0	=1459	41%
9/11Saturday, Sept. 116:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+24	=1525	59%
9/12Sunday, Sept. 121:05 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1459	+0	+0	=1459	41%
9/12Sunday, Sept. 121:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+24	=1525	59%
9/14Tuesday, Sept. 147:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1491	+2	–1	=1492	45%
9/14Tuesday, Sept. 147:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+26	=1527	55%
9/15Wednesday, Sept. 157:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1491	+2	+0	=1493	45%
9/15Wednesday, Sept. 157:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+24	=1525	55%
9/16Thursday, Sept. 166:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1491	+2	+0	=1493	45%
9/16Thursday, Sept. 166:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+24	=1525	55%
9/17Friday, Sept. 177:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	–1	=1500	42%
9/17Friday, Sept. 177:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1530	–1	+26	=1555	58%
9/18Saturday, Sept. 187:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+0	=1501	43%
9/18Saturday, Sept. 187:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1530	–1	+24	=1553	57%
9/19Sunday, Sept. 191:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+0	=1501	43%
9/19Sunday, Sept. 191:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1530	–1	+24	=1553	57%
9/20Monday, Sept. 207:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1435	+7	–2	=1440	38%
9/20Monday, Sept. 207:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+23	=1524	62%
9/21Tuesday, Sept. 217:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1435	+7	+0	=1442	38%
9/21Tuesday, Sept. 217:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+24	=1525	62%
9/22Wednesday, Sept. 227:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1435	+7	+0	=1442	38%
9/22Wednesday, Sept. 227:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+24	=1525	62%
9/23Thursday, Sept. 237:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	–2	=1429	36%
9/23Thursday, Sept. 237:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+24	=1525	64%
9/24Friday, Sept. 247:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+0	=1431	37%
9/24Friday, Sept. 247:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+24	=1525	63%
9/25Saturday, Sept. 254:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+0	=1431	37%
9/25Saturday, Sept. 254:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+24	=1525	63%
9/26Sunday, Sept. 261:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+0	=1431	37%
9/26Sunday, Sept. 261:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+24	=1525	63%
9/28Tuesday, Sept. 287:20 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	–1	=1500	43%
9/28Tuesday, Sept. 287:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1534	–5	+22	=1551	57%
9/29Wednesday, Sept. 297:20 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+0	=1501	43%
9/29Wednesday, Sept. 297:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1534	–5	+24	=1553	57%
9/30Thursday, Sept. 307:20 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+0	=1501	43%
9/30Thursday, Sept. 307:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1534	–5	+24	=1553	57%
10/1Friday, Oct. 17:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	–3	=1498	50%
10/1Friday, Oct. 17:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1476	+1	+21	=1498	50%
10/2Saturday, Oct. 26:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+0	=1501	50%
10/2Saturday, Oct. 26:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	50%
10/3Sunday, Oct. 31:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+0	=1501	50%
10/3Sunday, Oct. 31:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	50%

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
7/31Saturday, July 317:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1501	+18	+0	=1519	58%	2
7/31Saturday, July 317:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1431	+10	+24	=1465	42%	3
7/30Friday, July 307:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Velasquez	1505	–23	–2	=1480	56%	0
7/30Friday, July 307:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Crowe	1427	–15	+24	=1436	44%	7
7/29Thursday, July 292:50 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1509	–15	+0	=1494	48%	8
7/29Thursday, July 292:50 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Sanchez	1503	–22	+24	=1505	52%	11
7/29Thursday, July 2912:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Scherzer	1508	+40	+2	=1550	46%	3
7/29Thursday, July 2912:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1504	+45	+26	=1575	54%	1
7/27Tuesday, July 277:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Fedde	1506	–19	+0	=1487	49%	6
7/27Tuesday, July 277:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Moore	1506	–38	+24	=1492	51%	4
7/26Monday, July 267:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Ross	1508	+4	–1	=1511	50%	5
7/26Monday, July 267:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Howard	1505	–18	+24	=1511	50%	6
7/25Sunday, July 251:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Toussaint	1530	–31	+0	=1499	44%	1
7/25Sunday, July 251:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1504	+9	+24	=1537	56%	2
7/24Saturday, July 246:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Smyly	1526	–17	+0	=1509	49%	15
7/24Saturday, July 246:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Velasquez	1508	–19	+24	=1513	51%	3
7/23Friday, July 237:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1527	–3	+0	=1524	43%	1
7/23Friday, July 237:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1506	+43	+24	=1573	57%	5
7/22Thursday, July 227:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1525	+17	–3	=1539	57%	7
7/22Thursday, July 227:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Moore	1508	–37	+23	=1494	43%	2
7/21Wednesday, July 217:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Howard	1509	–23	+0	=1486	42%	5
7/21Wednesday, July 217:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Wojciechowski	1549	–34	+24	=1539	58%	6
7/20Tuesday, July 207:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1510	+11	+1	=1522	45%	4
7/20Tuesday, July 207:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	German	1548	–20	+26	=1554	55%	6
7/18Sunday, July 181:55 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Garrett	1479	–28	+0	=1451	32%	4
7/18Sunday, July 181:55 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1509	+45	+24	=1578	68%	7
7/17Saturday, July 176:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Thompson	1481	+2	+0	=1483	46%	2
7/17Saturday, July 176:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Velasquez	1508	–23	+24	=1509	54%	4
7/16Friday, July 167:25 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Detwiler	1477	–33	+0	=1444	37%	7
7/16Friday, July 167:25 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Eflin	1511	–2	+24	=1533	63%	0
7/16Friday, July 164:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1479	+13	+4	=1496	50%	2
7/16Friday, July 164:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Moore	1510	–40	+29	=1499	50%	5
7/11Sunday, July 111:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Kintzler	1509	–23	+0	=1486	40%	5
7/11Sunday, July 111:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Pivetta	1528	+2	+24	=1554	60%	4
7/10Saturday, July 104:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Moore	1504	–42	+0	=1462	38%	11
7/10Saturday, July 104:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Perez	1532	–11	+24	=1545	62%	2
7/9Friday, July 97:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Velasquez	1507	–16	–3	=1488	44%	5
7/9Friday, July 97:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Richards	1530	–21	+22	=1531	56%	11
7/8Thursday, July 88 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Eflin	1503	–7	+0	=1496	45%	8
7/8Thursday, July 88 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Alzolay	1500	+9	+24	=1533	55%	0
7/7Wednesday, July 78:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1506	+48	+0	=1554	53%	3
7/7Wednesday, July 78:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Mills	1498	+11	+24	=1533	47%	8
7/6Tuesday, July 68:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1503	+8	+0	=1511	52%	15
7/6Tuesday, July 68:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Arrieta	1500	–25	+24	=1499	48%	10
7/5Monday, July 58:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Moore	1499	–45	–3	=1451	38%	13
7/5Monday, July 58:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Davies	1505	+11	+22	=1538	62%	3
7/4Sunday, July 41:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Snell	1560	–8	+0	=1552	56%	11
7/4Sunday, July 41:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Velasquez	1502	–14	+24	=1512	44%	1
7/3Saturday, July 34:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Darvish	1562	+37	+0	=1599	62%	2
7/3Saturday, July 34:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Eflin	1500	–11	+24	=1513	38%	4
7/2Friday, July 26:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Paddack	1562	–22	–2	=1538	46%	3
7/2Friday, July 26:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1499	+43	+26	=1568	54%	4
6/30Wednesday, June 307:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Holloway	1474	–29	+0	=1445	37%	11
6/30Wednesday, June 307:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1502	+14	+24	=1540	63%	6
6/29Tuesday, June 297:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1475	+19	–1	=1493	48%	3
6/29Tuesday, June 297:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Velasquez	1501	–19	+22	=1504	52%	4
6/28Monday, June 286:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Howard	1504	–25	–3	=1476	43%	4
6/28Monday, June 286:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Miley	1498	+2	+24	=1524	57%	12
6/27Sunday, June 271:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1502	+42	+0	=1544	48%	4
6/27Sunday, June 271:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Stroman	1540	–5	+24	=1559	52%	2
6/26Saturday, June 264:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Eflin	1503	–10	+0	=1493	32%	3
6/26Saturday, June 264:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	deGrom	1539	+56	+24	=1619	68%	4
6/25Friday, June 257:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Moore	1501	–47	+0	=1454	39%	2
6/25Friday, June 257:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Peterson	1541	–31	+24	=1534	61%	1
6/25Friday, June 254:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1502	+13	+1	=1516	43%	1
6/25Friday, June 254:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Walker	1540	–2	+26	=1564	57%	2
6/23Wednesday, June 231:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Fedde	1514	–13	+0	=1501	49%	13
6/23Wednesday, June 231:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Velasquez	1503	–18	+24	=1509	51%	12
6/22Tuesday, June 227:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Scherzer	1513	+38	+0	=1551	47%	3
6/22Tuesday, June 227:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1504	+47	+22	=1573	53%	2
6/20Sunday, June 204:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Eflin	1507	–4	+0	=1503	47%	2
6/20Sunday, June 204:05 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Long	1519	–18	+24	=1525	53%	11
6/19Saturday, June 194:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1504	+19	+0	=1523	48%	13
6/19Saturday, June 194:05 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Wood	1522	–8	+24	=1538	52%	6
6/18Friday, June 189:45 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Velasquez	1506	–20	+0	=1486	44%	3
6/18Friday, June 189:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Cueto	1521	–17	+24	=1528	56%	5
6/16Wednesday, June 1610:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1504	+44	+0	=1548	39%	2
6/16Wednesday, June 1610:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Kershaw	1594	+10	+24	=1628	61%	0
6/15Tuesday, June 1510:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Eflin	1505	–5	+0	=1500	35%	3
6/15Tuesday, June 1510:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Urias	1593	–9	+24	=1608	65%	5
6/14Monday, June 1410:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Howard	1506	–26	–4	=1476	33%	1
6/14Monday, June 1410:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Gonsolin	1592	–16	+24	=1600	67%	3
6/13Sunday, June 131:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	German	1549	–8	+0	=1541	50%	0
6/13Sunday, June 131:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1503	+13	+24	=1540	50%	7
6/12Saturday, June 124:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Taillon	1550	–11	–1	=1538	54%	7
6/12Saturday, June 124:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Velasquez	1502	–19	+26	=1509	46%	8
6/10Thursday, June 101:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1525	+11	+0	=1536	46%	3
6/10Thursday, June 101:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1501	+40	+24	=1565	54%	4
6/9Wednesday, June 97:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Davidson	1526	–24	+0	=1502	47%	1
6/9Wednesday, June 97:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Eflin	1500	–4	+24	=1520	53%	2
6/8Tuesday, June 87:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Smyly	1524	–25	–1	=1498	43%	9
6/8Tuesday, June 87:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1502	+18	+26	=1546	57%	5
6/6Sunday, June 61:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Voth	1507	–25	+0	=1482	47%	6
6/6Sunday, June 61:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Velasquez	1500	–18	+24	=1506	53%	12
6/5Saturday, June 54:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Ross	1508	–18	+0	=1490	49%	2
6/5Saturday, June 54:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Howard	1498	–25	+24	=1497	51%	5
6/4Friday, June 47:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Scherzer	1507	+42	–3	=1546	47%	2
6/4Friday, June 47:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1499	+39	+27	=1565	53%	1
6/1Tuesday, June 17:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1495	+22	+0	=1517	47%	17
6/1Tuesday, June 17:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gray	1493	+24	+24	=1541	53%	3
5/31Monday, May 312:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Velasquez	1498	–13	–3	=1482	46%	1
5/31Monday, May 312:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Miley	1489	–3	+22	=1508	54%	11
5/30Sunday, May 301:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Eflin	1499	–3	+0	=1496	39%	2
5/30Sunday, May 301:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	McHugh	1552	–4	+24	=1572	61%	6
5/29Saturday, May 291:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1500	+35	+0	=1535	46%	3
5/29Saturday, May 291:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Yarbrough	1551	–16	+26	=1561	54%	5
5/27Thursday, May 2712:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Howard	1499	–29	+0	=1470	44%	3
5/27Thursday, May 2712:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Lopez	1480	+11	+24	=1515	56%	2
5/26Wednesday, May 266:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1501	+20	+0	=1521	57%	2
5/26Wednesday, May 266:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Neidert	1478	–31	+24	=1471	43%	4
5/25Tuesday, May 256:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Velasquez	1499	–15	+0	=1484	46%	2
5/25Tuesday, May 256:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1480	+10	+24	=1514	54%	0
5/24Monday, May 246:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Eflin	1501	–1	–3	=1497	47%	6
5/24Monday, May 246:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1478	+19	+24	=1521	53%	9
5/23Sunday, May 231:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Rodriguez	1521	+11	+0	=1532	47%	2
5/23Sunday, May 231:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1499	+32	+24	=1555	53%	6
5/22Saturday, May 227:15 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Eovaldi	1520	+3	+0	=1523	54%	4
5/22Saturday, May 227:15 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Howard	1500	–29	+24	=1495	46%	3
5/21Friday, May 217:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Perez	1516	–12	–2	=1502	43%	11
5/21Friday, May 217:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1503	+24	+24	=1551	57%	3
5/20Thursday, May 207:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1473	+8	+0	=1481	46%	6
5/20Thursday, May 207:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Hale	1506	–23	+24	=1507	54%	0
5/19Wednesday, May 197:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1471	+18	+0	=1489	44%	3
5/19Wednesday, May 197:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Eflin	1508	–1	+24	=1531	56%	1
5/18Tuesday, May 187:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Poteet	1473	–9	–2	=1462	36%	3
5/18Tuesday, May 187:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1506	+30	+24	=1560	64%	8
5/16Sunday, May 161:07 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Anderson	1507	–16	+0	=1491	40%	8
5/16Sunday, May 161:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1532	+4	+24	=1560	60%	10
5/15Saturday, May 157:37 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1509	+24	+0	=1533	48%	0
5/15Saturday, May 157:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kay	1530	–11	+24	=1543	52%	4
5/14Friday, May 147:37 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Velasquez	1507	–18	–2	=1487	42%	5
5/14Friday, May 147:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Matz	1532	–10	+21	=1543	58%	1
5/13Thursday, May 131:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Eflin	1509	+0	+0	=1509	49%	1
5/13Thursday, May 131:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1511	–16	+24	=1519	51%	5
5/12Wednesday, May 127:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1507	+28	+0	=1535	53%	5
5/12Wednesday, May 127:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Lester	1512	–20	+24	=1516	47%	2
5/11Tuesday, May 117:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Anderson	1505	–18	–1	=1486	46%	6
5/11Tuesday, May 117:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Fedde	1515	–26	+24	=1513	54%	2
5/9Sunday, May 97 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1507	+29	+0	=1536	48%	1
5/9Sunday, May 97 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Ynoa	1525	–2	+24	=1547	52%	6
5/8Saturday, May 87:20 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Velasquez	1508	–22	+0	=1486	39%	7
5/8Saturday, May 87:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1524	+17	+24	=1565	61%	8
5/7Friday, May 77:20 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Eflin	1504	–2	–3	=1499	40%	12
5/7Friday, May 77:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1528	+17	+21	=1566	60%	2
5/6Thursday, May 61:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1518	+39	+0	=1557	51%	0
5/6Thursday, May 61:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1502	+22	+24	=1548	49%	2
5/5Wednesday, May 57:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1519	–5	+0	=1514	51%	4
5/5Wednesday, May 57:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Anderson	1501	–14	+24	=1511	49%	5
5/4Tuesday, May 47:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lauer	1520	–28	+0	=1492	41%	5
5/4Tuesday, May 47:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1500	+30	+24	=1554	59%	6
5/3Monday, May 37:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1521	–19	–3	=1499	50%	3
5/3Monday, May 37:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Velasquez	1499	–22	+24	=1501	50%	4
5/2Sunday, May 27 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Peterson	1531	–28	+0	=1503	47%	8
5/2Sunday, May 27 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Eflin	1500	+0	+24	=1524	53%	7
5/1Saturday, May 16:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Walker	1530	–14	+0	=1516	45%	5
5/1Saturday, May 16:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1502	+23	+24	=1549	55%	4
4/30Friday, April 307:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Stroman	1531	–6	+1	=1526	53%	1
4/30Friday, April 307:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Anderson	1501	–15	+21	=1507	47%	2
4/29Thursday, April 291:15 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1502	+31	+0	=1533	51%	3
4/29Thursday, April 291:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Kim	1504	+1	+24	=1529	49%	4
4/28Wednesday, April 287:45 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Velasquez	1500	–20	+0	=1480	46%	5
4/28Wednesday, April 287:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Oviedo	1505	–24	+24	=1505	54%	3
4/27Tuesday, April 277:45 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Eflin	1502	+0	+0	=1502	49%	2
4/27Tuesday, April 277:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Martinez	1504	–17	+24	=1511	51%	5
4/26Monday, April 267:45 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1501	+18	–3	=1516	48%	2
4/26Monday, April 267:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1505	+3	+24	=1532	52%	1
4/25Sunday, April 253:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Anderson	1504	–11	+0	=1493	52%	2
4/25Sunday, April 253:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Gray	1446	+10	+24	=1480	48%	12
4/24Saturday, April 248:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1503	+32	+0	=1535	60%	7
4/24Saturday, April 248:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Senzatela	1447	–9	+24	=1462	40%	5
4/23Friday, April 238:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Velasquez	1504	–19	–2	=1483	49%	4
4/23Friday, April 238:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Marquez	1446	+21	+26	=1493	51%	5
4/21Wednesday, April 211:05 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	DeSclafani	1488	+5	+0	=1493	45%	5
4/21Wednesday, April 211:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Eflin	1503	–1	+24	=1526	55%	6
4/20Tuesday, April 207:05 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Webb	1486	–15	+0	=1471	39%	10
4/20Tuesday, April 207:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1505	+21	+24	=1550	61%	7
4/19Monday, April 197:05 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Gausman	1485	+14	–3	=1496	47%	2
4/19Monday, April 197:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Anderson	1507	–12	+24	=1519	53%	0
4/18Sunday, April 181:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Gant	1501	–4	+0	=1497	42%	0
4/18Sunday, April 181:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1506	+25	+24	=1555	58%	2
4/17Saturday, April 174:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Kim	1499	+4	+0	=1503	51%	9
4/17Saturday, April 174:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Moore	1508	–38	+24	=1494	49%	4
4/16Friday, April 167:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Martinez	1501	–16	–1	=1484	44%	2
4/16Friday, April 167:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Eflin	1506	–4	+25	=1527	56%	9
4/14Wednesday, April 147:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1508	+24	+0	=1532	50%	1
4/14Wednesday, April 147:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Peterson	1539	–29	+24	=1534	50%	5
4/13Tuesday, April 138 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1509	+25	+0	=1534	47%	0
4/13Tuesday, April 138 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Stroman	1537	–7	+24	=1554	53%	4
4/13Tuesday, April 134:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Anderson	1510	–10	–1	=1499	43%	3
4/13Tuesday, April 134:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Walker	1536	–14	+29	=1551	57%	4
4/11Sunday, April 117:08 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Moore	1509	–36	+0	=1473	40%	7
4/11Sunday, April 117:08 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Smyly	1535	–16	+24	=1543	60%	6
4/10Saturday, April 107:20 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Eflin	1510	–4	+0	=1506	42%	4
4/10Saturday, April 107:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1534	+7	+24	=1565	58%	5
4/9Friday, April 97:20 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1512	+27	–1	=1538	45%	1
4/9Friday, April 97:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1532	+15	+23	=1570	55%	8
4/7Wednesday, April 74:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Peterson	1540	–20	+0	=1520	45%	2
4/7Wednesday, April 74:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1510	+24	+24	=1558	55%	8
4/6Tuesday, April 67:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Stroman	1538	–9	+0	=1529	51%	8
4/6Tuesday, April 67:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Anderson	1512	–14	+24	=1522	49%	4
4/5Monday, April 57:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	deGrom	1540	+38	–1	=1577	61%	3
4/5Monday, April 57:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Moore	1510	–37	+24	=1497	39%	5
4/4Sunday, April 41:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1531	+5	+0	=1536	52%	1
4/4Sunday, April 41:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Eflin	1509	–9	+24	=1524	48%	2
4/3Saturday, April 34:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1533	+16	+2	=1551	49%	0
4/3Saturday, April 34:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1507	+22	+26	=1555	51%	4
4/1Thursday, April 13:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1534	–1	–3	=1530	46%	2
4/1Thursday, April 13:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1506	+26	+24	=1556	54%	3

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

2021 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

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Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

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2021 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

NL East standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Team rating

Completed games

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