Updated Jul. 31, 2021, at 11:56 PM

2021 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Nationals have a 4% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1507, down 2 points from last week.

NL East standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
MetsMets55-4857%55%
BravesBraves52-534.030%27%
PhilliesPhillies51-534.515%14%
NationalsNationals48-567.54%4%
MarlinsMarlins44-6011.5<1%<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/1Sunday, Aug. 11:05 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Alzolay, Adbert
Alzolay
1491+4+0=149548%
WSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
150720+24=151152%
8/2Monday, Aug. 27 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Moore, Matt
Moore
1500402=145841%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+24=152259%
8/3Tuesday, Aug. 37:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1500+46+0=154655%
WSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
150718+24=151345%
8/4Wednesday, Aug. 47:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Velasquez, Vince
Velasquez
150027+0=147342%
WSHWSHNationals
Espino, Paolo
Espino
15074+24=152758%
8/5Thursday, Aug. 54:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1500+19+0=151948%
WSHWSHNationals
Ross, Joe
Ross
1507+3+24=153452%
8/6Friday, Aug. 67:20 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
1507203=148440%
ATLATLBraves
Muller, Kyle
Muller
15344+22=155260%
8/7Saturday, Aug. 77:20 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+0=149839%
ATLATLBraves
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1534+17+24=157561%
8/8Sunday, Aug. 81:20 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
150718+0=148940%
ATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
15342+24=155660%
8/10Tuesday, Aug. 107:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Espino, Paolo
Espino
150741=150241%
NYMNYMMets
Carrasco, Carlos
Carrasco
1530+11+25=156659%
8/11Wednesday, Aug. 117:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Ross, Joe
Ross
1507+3+0=151044%
NYMNYMMets
Hill, Rich
Hill
15304+24=155056%
8/12Thursday, Aug. 1212:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+0=149842%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15301+24=155358%
8/13Friday, Aug. 137:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
153453=152651%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+22=152049%
8/14Saturday, Aug. 146:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
15345+0=152951%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+24=152249%
8/15Sunday, Aug. 151:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
15345+0=152951%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+24=152249%
8/17Tuesday, Aug. 177:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1535+82=154153%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+26=152447%
8/18Wednesday, Aug. 184:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1535+8+0=154353%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+24=152247%
8/20Friday, Aug. 208:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
150791=149741%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1539+2+22=156359%
8/21Saturday, Aug. 214:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+0=149840%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1539+2+24=156560%
8/22Sunday, Aug. 222:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+0=149840%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1539+2+24=156560%
8/24Tuesday, Aug. 247:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
150791=149750%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1476+1+23=150050%
8/25Wednesday, Aug. 257:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+0=149850%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1476+1+24=150150%
8/26Thursday, Aug. 267:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+0=149850%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1476+1+24=150150%
8/27Friday, Aug. 277:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
150793=149542%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15301+24=155358%
8/28Saturday, Aug. 287:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+0=149842%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15301+24=155358%
8/29Sunday, Aug. 291:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+0=149842%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15301+24=155358%
8/30Monday, Aug. 307:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1500+12=149947%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+22=152053%
8/31Tuesday, Aug. 317:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1500+1+0=150147%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+24=152253%
9/1Wednesday, Sept. 17:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1500+1+0=150147%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+24=152253%
9/3Friday, Sept. 37:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
153012=152750%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+26=152450%
9/4Saturday, Sept. 41:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15301+0=152951%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+24=152249%
9/4Saturday, Sept. 46:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15301+0=152951%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+24=152249%
9/5Sunday, Sept. 51:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15301+0=152951%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+24=152249%
9/6Monday, Sept. 61:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15301+0=152951%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+24=152249%
9/7Tuesday, Sept. 77:20 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
150793=149542%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
15345+23=155258%
9/8Wednesday, Sept. 87:20 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+0=149842%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
15345+24=155358%
9/9Thursday, Sept. 97:20 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+0=149842%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
15345+24=155358%
9/10Friday, Sept. 106:35 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
150792=149655%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
14321+26=145745%
9/11Saturday, Sept. 116:35 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+0=149856%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
14321+24=145544%
9/12Sunday, Sept. 121:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+0=149856%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
14321+24=145544%
9/13Monday, Sept. 137:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1476+13=147443%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+22=152057%
9/14Tuesday, Sept. 147:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1476+1+0=147743%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+24=152257%
9/15Wednesday, Sept. 151:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1476+1+0=147743%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+24=152257%
9/17Friday, Sept. 177:05 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1459+03=145640%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+26=152460%
9/18Saturday, Sept. 184:05 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1459+0+0=145941%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+24=152259%
9/19Sunday, Sept. 191:05 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1459+0+0=145941%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+24=152259%
9/20Monday, Sept. 206:40 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
150793=149549%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1476+1+24=150151%
9/21Tuesday, Sept. 216:40 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+0=149850%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1476+1+24=150150%
9/22Wednesday, Sept. 226:40 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+0=149850%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1476+1+24=150150%
9/23Thursday, Sept. 236:40 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
150793=149545%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+24=153155%
9/24Friday, Sept. 247:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+0=149845%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+24=153155%
9/25Saturday, Sept. 257:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+0=149845%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+24=153155%
9/26Sunday, Sept. 261:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+0=149845%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+24=153155%
9/27Monday, Sept. 278:40 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
150793=149552%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1459+0+24=148348%
9/28Tuesday, Sept. 288:40 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+0=149852%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1459+0+24=148348%
9/29Wednesday, Sept. 293:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+0=149852%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1459+0+24=148348%
10/1Friday, Oct. 17:05 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
1527+31=152951%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+22=152049%
10/2Saturday, Oct. 24:05 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
1527+3+0=153051%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+24=152249%
10/3Sunday, Oct. 31:05 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
1527+3+0=153051%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+24=152249%

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
7/31Saturday, July 317:05 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1489+22+0=151146%6
WSHWSHNationals
Ross, Joe
Ross
1509+7+24=154054%3
7/30Friday, July 307:05 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
1490283=145941%3
WSHWSHNationals
Espino, Paolo
Espino
150810+22=152059%4
7/29Thursday, July 292:50 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
150915+0=149448%8
PHIPHIPhillies
Sanchez, Cristopher
Sanchez
150322+24=150552%11
7/29Thursday, July 2912:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1508+40+2=155046%3
PHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1504+45+26=157554%1
7/27Tuesday, July 277:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
150619+0=148749%6
PHIPHIPhillies
Moore, Matt
Moore
150638+24=149251%4
7/26Monday, July 267:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Ross, Joe
Ross
1508+41=151150%5
PHIPHIPhillies
Howard, Spencer
Howard
150518+24=151150%6
7/25Sunday, July 251:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Espino, Paolo
Espino
15098+0=150150%4
BALBALOrioles
Means, John
Means
1434+43+24=150150%5
7/24Saturday, July 246:35 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Lester, Jon
Lester
151033+0=147755%3
BALBALOrioles
Harvey, Matt
Harvey
143215+24=144145%5
7/23Friday, July 237:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
151314+1=150057%1
BALBALOrioles
Lopez, Jorge
Lopez
14304+23=144943%6
7/21Wednesday, July 217:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Neidert, Nick
Neidert
147327+0=144640%3
WSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
151422+24=151660%1
7/20Tuesday, July 207:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Rogers, Trevor
Rogers
1474+25+0=149946%3
WSHWSHNationals
Espino, Paolo
Espino
151313+24=152454%6
7/19Monday, July 197:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Detwiler, Ross
Detwiler
1478312=144543%1
WSHWSHNationals
Lester, Jon
Lester
150939+24=149457%18
7/18Sunday, July 183:05 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1561+12+0=157350%7
WSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1508+43+24=157550%8
7/17Saturday, July 177:05 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Snell, Blake
Snell
1559+0+0=155955%10
WSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
15109+24=152545%4
7/16Friday, July 167:05 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
155523+3=153552%24
WSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
151417+27=152448%8
7/11Sunday, July 114:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
151516+0=149938%1
SFSFGiants
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
1529+34+24=158762%3
7/10Saturday, July 104:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Lester, Jon
Lester
151736+0=148139%4
SFSFGiants
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
1528+10+24=156261%10
7/9Friday, July 99:45 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Espino, Paolo
Espino
1518132=150345%3
SFSFGiants
Webb, Logan
Webb
152611+26=154155%5
7/8Thursday, July 89:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1519+44+0=156342%8
SDSDPadres
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1558+37+24=161958%9
7/7Wednesday, July 710:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
151514+0=150140%15
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
156217+24=156960%5
7/6Tuesday, July 610:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
151616+0=150040%4
SDSDPadres
Weathers, Ryan
Weathers
156117+24=156860%7
7/5Monday, July 510:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Lester, Jon
Lester
1514354=147534%7
SDSDPadres
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1563+11+20=159466%5
7/4Sunday, July 411:05 a.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Cleavinger, Garrett
Cleavinger
159838+0=156054%5
WSHWSHNationals
Ross, Joe
Ross
15167+24=153346%1
7/3Saturday, July 37:15 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1597+11+0=160862%5
WSHWSHNationals
Espino, Paolo
Espino
151717+24=152438%3
7/2Friday, July 27:05 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
159517+0=157849%10
WSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1519+41+24=158451%5
7/1Thursday, July 17:05 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Gonzalez, Victor
Gonzalez
1593382=155353%6
WSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
152111+24=153447%2
6/30Wednesday, June 304:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Rasmussen, Drew
Rasmussen
155323+0=153053%6
WSHWSHNationals
Lester, Jon
Lester
151833+24=150947%15
6/29Tuesday, June 297:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Hill, Rich
Hill
1554+131=156655%3
WSHWSHNationals
Ross, Joe
Ross
15179+24=153245%4
6/28Monday, June 287:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Eickhoff, Jerad
Eickhoff
1538392=149748%4
WSHWSHNationals
Espino, Paolo
Espino
151524+21=151252%8
6/27Sunday, June 271:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1513+40+0=155355%5
MIAMIAMarlins
Alcantara, Sandy
Alcantara
1476+19+24=151945%1
6/26Saturday, June 264:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
151412+0=150252%2
MIAMIAMarlins
Thompson, Zach
Thompson
14759+24=149048%3
6/25Friday, June 257:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Lester, Jon
Lester
151725+0=149248%2
MIAMIAMarlins
Lopez, Pablo
Lopez
1472+13+24=150952%11
6/24Thursday, June 247:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Ross, Joe
Ross
1515143=149852%7
MIAMIAMarlins
Poteet, Cody
Poteet
147417+24=148148%3
6/23Wednesday, June 231:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
151413+0=150149%13
PHIPHIPhillies
Velasquez, Vince
Velasquez
150318+24=150951%12
6/22Tuesday, June 227:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1513+38+0=155147%3
PHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1504+47+22=157353%2
6/20Sunday, June 201:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Walker, Taijuan
Walker
1542+0+0=154253%2
WSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
151115+24=152047%5
6/19Saturday, June 196:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Gsellman, Robert
Gsellman
154462+0=148247%2
WSHWSHNationals
Lester, Jon
Lester
150927+24=150653%6
6/19Saturday, June 191:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Peterson, David
Peterson
154234+0=150848%5
WSHWSHNationals
Ross, Joe
Ross
151113+24=152252%1
6/18Friday, June 187:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
1543322=150949%0
WSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
151018+26=151851%1
6/16Wednesday, June 164:05 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
De Jong, Chase
De Jong
142417+0=140737%1
WSHWSHNationals
Espino, Paolo
Espino
151031+24=150363%3
6/15Tuesday, June 157:05 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1426+11+0=143739%1
WSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
150819+24=151361%8
6/14Monday, June 147:05 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1427+173=144141%2
WSHWSHNationals
Lester, Jon
Lester
150726+24=150559%3
6/13Sunday, June 131:05 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
151713+0=150449%0
WSHWSHNationals
Ross, Joe
Ross
150518+24=151151%5
6/12Saturday, June 127:15 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Menez, Conner
Menez
151629+0=148748%2
WSHWSHNationals
Rodriguez, Jefry
Rodriguez
150630+24=150052%1
6/12Saturday, June 122:05 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
1517+34+0=155156%0
WSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
150420+24=150844%2
6/11Friday, June 117:05 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
151641=151141%1
WSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1505+45+23=157359%0
6/9Wednesday, June 97:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
150416+0=148839%9
TBTBRays
McClanahan, Shane
McClanahan
155914+24=156961%7
6/8Tuesday, June 87:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Lester, Jon
Lester
1504221=148133%1
TBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
1558+22+23=160367%3
6/6Sunday, June 61:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Voth, Austin
Voth
150725+0=148247%6
PHIPHIPhillies
Velasquez, Vince
Velasquez
150018+24=150653%12
6/5Saturday, June 54:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Ross, Joe
Ross
150818+0=149049%2
PHIPHIPhillies
Howard, Spencer
Howard
149825+24=149751%5
6/4Friday, June 47:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1507+423=154647%2
PHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1499+39+27=156553%1
6/3Thursday, June 312:20 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
150914+0=149547%1
ATLATLBraves
Davidson, Tucker
Davidson
152032+24=151253%5
6/2Wednesday, June 27:20 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Lester, Jon
Lester
150723+0=148444%5
ATLATLBraves
Smyly, Drew
Smyly
152222+24=152456%3
6/1Tuesday, June 17:20 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Strasburg, Stephen
Strasburg
1505+24+0=152947%11
ATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
15241+24=154753%6
5/31Monday, May 315:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Ross, Joe
Ross
1506183=148539%3
ATLATLBraves
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1523+14+23=156061%5
5/30Sunday, May 301:05 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1513+45+0=155848%3
WSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1508+41+24=157352%0
5/29Saturday, May 297:15 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
151122+0=148947%6
WSHWSHNationals
Lester, Jon
Lester
151025+24=150953%2
5/29Saturday, May 292:05 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Peralta, Freddy
Peralta
1510+01=150948%4
WSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
151213+26=152552%1
5/27Thursday, May 277:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1488+23+0=151142%3
WSHWSHNationals
Strasburg, Stephen
Strasburg
1514+26+24=156458%0
5/26Wednesday, May 267:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Hoffman, Jeff
Hoffman
148916+0=147344%3
WSHWSHNationals
Ross, Joe
Ross
151320+24=151756%5
5/25Tuesday, May 257:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1488+2+0=149037%2
WSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1514+41+26=158163%1
5/23Sunday, May 231:05 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Harvey, Matt
Harvey
143520+0=141534%5
WSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
151310+24=152766%6
5/22Saturday, May 224:05 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Zimmermann, Bruce
Zimmermann
143615+0=142137%9
WSHWSHNationals
Lester, Jon
Lester
151222+24=151463%12
5/21Friday, May 217:05 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Lopez, Jorge
Lopez
1437141=142231%2
WSHWSHNationals
Strasburg, Stephen
Strasburg
1511+24+21=155669%4
5/20Thursday, May 202:20 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Ross, Joe
Ross
151319+0=149448%2
CHCCHCCubs
Williams, Trevor
Williams
150623+24=150752%5
5/19Wednesday, May 197:40 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1512+41+0=155354%4
CHCCHCCubs
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
15062+24=152846%3
5/18Tuesday, May 187:40 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
151410+0=150446%3
CHCCHCCubs
Davies, Zach
Davies
1505+2+24=153154%6
5/17Monday, May 177:40 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Lester, Jon
Lester
1515194=149244%3
CHCCHCCubs
Alzolay, Adbert
Alzolay
1503+12+22=153756%7
5/16Sunday, May 164:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
151327+0=148647%3
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
14843+24=150553%0
5/15Saturday, May 158:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Ross, Joe
Ross
151614+0=150251%4
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Frankoff, Seth
Frankoff
148112+24=149349%11
5/14Friday, May 149:40 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1513+384=154757%17
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Smith, Riley
Smith
148514+24=149543%2
5/13Thursday, May 131:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Eflin, Zach
Eflin
1509+0+0=150949%1
WSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
151116+24=151951%5
5/12Wednesday, May 127:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1507+28+0=153553%5
WSHWSHNationals
Lester, Jon
Lester
151220+24=151647%2
5/11Tuesday, May 117:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Anderson, Chase
Anderson
1505181=148646%6
WSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
151526+24=151354%2
5/9Sunday, May 91:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Ross, Joe
Ross
151513+0=150241%2
NYYNYYYankees
German, Domingo
German
156222+24=156459%3
5/8Saturday, May 81:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1516+34+0=155046%3
NYYNYYYankees
Kluber, Corey
Kluber
15615+24=158054%4
5/7Friday, May 77:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
1513152=149638%11
NYYNYYYankees
Taillon, Jameson
Taillon
15647+24=158162%4
5/6Thursday, May 64:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Smyly, Drew
Smyly
152726+0=150148%3
WSHWSHNationals
Lester, Jon
Lester
151420+24=151852%2
5/5Wednesday, May 57:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
152610+0=151650%5
WSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
151522+24=151750%3
5/4Tuesday, May 47:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Ynoa, Huascar
Ynoa
15239+0=151448%6
WSHWSHNationals
Ross, Joe
Ross
151813+26=153152%1
5/2Sunday, May 21:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Rogers, Trevor
Rogers
1469+12+0=148137%1
WSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1517+30+24=157163%3
5/1Saturday, May 11:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Campbell, Paul
Campbell
147116+0=145540%2
WSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
151516+24=152360%7
4/30Friday, April 307:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Lopez, Pablo
Lopez
1472+111=148245%1
WSHWSHNationals
Lester, Jon
Lester
151421+24=151755%2
4/28Wednesday, April 287:07 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
151125+0=148642%8
TORTORBlue Jays
Matz, Steven
Matz
15233+24=154458%2
4/27Tuesday, April 277:07 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1513+38+0=155152%5
TORTORBlue Jays
Thornton, Trent
Thornton
15215+23=153948%9
4/25Sunday, April 251:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
151512+0=150345%0
NYMNYMMets
Walker, Taijuan
Walker
153216+24=154055%4
4/24Saturday, April 244:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Ross, Joe
Ross
151215+0=149741%7
NYMNYMMets
Stroman, Marcus
Stroman
1535+0+24=155959%1
4/23Friday, April 237:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
151328+0=148534%0
NYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1533+43+21=159766%6
4/21Wednesday, April 214:05 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Martinez, Carlos
Martinez
150217+0=148538%0
WSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1513+35+24=157262%1
4/20Tuesday, April 207:05 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
1503+3+0=150648%2
WSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
151215+24=152152%3
4/19Monday, April 197:05 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1500+342=153250%12
WSHWSHNationals
Ross, Joe
Ross
15144+24=153450%5
4/18Sunday, April 181:05 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
148410+0=147444%5
WSHWSHNationals
Espino, Paolo
Espino
151626+24=151456%2
4/17Saturday, April 171:05 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
1485+7+0=149248%2
WSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
151432+24=150652%6
4/16Friday, April 167:05 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Widener, Taylor
Widener
14864+0=148238%0
WSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1514+29+24=156762%1
4/15Thursday, April 157:05 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Kelly, Merrill
Kelly
1484+72=148944%11
WSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
15165+21=153256%6
4/14Wednesday, April 141:15 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Ross, Joe
Ross
15149+0=150546%6
STLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
1504+4+24=153254%0
4/13Tuesday, April 137:45 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Strasburg, Stephen
Strasburg
1517+35+0=155249%3
STLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1501+31+24=155651%14
4/12Monday, April 127:45 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
1515384=147343%5
STLSTLCardinals
Gant, John
Gant
15034+24=152357%2
4/11Sunday, April 114:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1516+24+0=154037%0
LADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1603+7+24=163463%3
4/10Saturday, April 109:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
15182+0=151637%5
LADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
160216+24=161063%9
4/9Friday, April 94:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Ross, Joe
Ross
1518142=150232%0
LADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1601+7+24=163268%1
4/7Wednesday, April 73:45 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Ynoa, Huascar
Ynoa
153035+0=149538%2
WSHWSHNationals
Strasburg, Stephen
Strasburg
1520+33+24=157762%0
4/7Wednesday, April 712:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1529+0+0=152952%7
WSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
152132+24=151348%6
4/6Tuesday, April 64:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Smyly, Drew
Smyly
153018+0=151242%5
WSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1520+26+24=157058%6

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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