Get more FiveThirtyEight
- Terms of Use
- Privacy Policy
- Your California Privacy Rights
- Children's Online Privacy Policy
- Interest-Based Ads
© 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. All rights reserved.
The Angels are done for the season.
Team rating
Starting pitchers
| Pitcher score | Adjustment to team ratingAdj. to team rating | ||
|---|---|---|---|
 | Garrett Richards | 54.2 | +24 |
 | Parker Bridwell | 50.2 | +5 |
 | Tyler Skaggs | 49.2 | +0 |
 | Bud Norris | 48.1 | -4 |
 | Ricky Nolasco | 47.4 | -8 |
Completed games
W, 6-2
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1510 | 1509 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +1 | +32 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1535 | 1541 |
L, 6-4
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1512 | 1507 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -7 | -10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1529 | 1497 |
W, 6-5
57%
43%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1511 | 1508 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +3 | -22 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +20 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1534 | 1486 |
L, 5-4
57%
43%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1513 | 1462 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -5 | -30 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1508 | 1456 |
L, 6-4
59%
41%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1515 | 1460 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +28 | -3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1543 | 1481 |
W, 9-3
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1512 | 1463 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +1 | +1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1513 | 1488 |
L, 4-2
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1514 | 1461 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -7 | -12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1504 | 1473 |
W, 7-5
40%
60%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1512 | 1554 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +4 | +4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1516 | 1582 |
L, 6-2
40%
60%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1514 | 1553 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -7 | +2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1507 | 1579 |
L, 3-0
39%
61%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1515 | 1551 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +23 | +41 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1535 | 1616 |
L, 4-1
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1517 | 1600 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +4 | -23 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1545 | 1577 |
L, 6-5
45%
55%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1518 | 1599 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -7 | -28 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1535 | 1571 |
L, 6-3
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1520 | 1597 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +6 | -14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +26 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1552 | 1581 |
L, 4-2
59%
41%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1523 | 1508 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +22 | 0 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1569 | 1508 |
W, 2-0
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1521 | 1510 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | 0 | +21 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1545 | 1531 |
W, 7-6
58%
42%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1520 | 1511 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -7 | -29 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1537 | 1479 |
L, 5-2
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1522 | 1544 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -8 | +5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1538 | 1549 |
W, 9-1
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1518 | 1548 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +3 | -19 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1545 | 1529 |
L, 1-0
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1519 | 1547 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +24 | +34 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +23 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1566 | 1581 |
W, 5-3
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1517 | 1509 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +2 | +10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1519 | 1543 |
L, 8-1
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1521 | 1506 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -5 | -12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1516 | 1518 |
L, 4-3
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1522 | 1504 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -4 | -3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +26 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1517 | 1527 |
L, 3-1
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1524 | 1461 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +1 | +12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1525 | 1497 |
W, 8-7
58%
42%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1523 | 1462 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +24 | +7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1547 | 1493 |
W, 11-9
58%
42%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1522 | 1464 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +7 | -15 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -4 | +21 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1525 | 1470 |
L, 7-6
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1523 | 1519 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -2 | -7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1521 | 1536 |
W, 7-4
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1521 | 1521 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -7 | -12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1514 | 1533 |
L, 10-9
45%
55%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1522 | 1520 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +5 | +21 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +22 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1526 | 1563 |
W, 10-8
62%
38%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1521 | 1470 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +16 | +8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1561 | 1478 |
W, 8-2
60%
40%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1518 | 1473 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -8 | -9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1534 | 1464 |
W, 3-1
60%
40%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1517 | 1474 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -9 | -8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1532 | 1464 |
L, 7-5
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1519 | 1560 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -9 | 0 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1534 | 1560 |
W, 7-6
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1517 | 1562 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +5 | -5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1546 | 1557 |
L, 2-1
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1518 | 1560 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +12 | +8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1554 | 1565 |
L, 3-0
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1521 | 1518 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -7 | -14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1538 | 1504 |
L, 7-5
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1523 | 1516 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -6 | +2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1541 | 1518 |
W, 10-1
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1519 | 1520 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -12 | -10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1531 | 1510 |
L, 5-3
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1521 | 1518 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +6 | +27 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +20 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1547 | 1542 |
W, 5-4
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1520 | 1496 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +15 | -15 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1535 | 1505 |
W, 5-1
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1517 | 1499 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -5 | +19 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1512 | 1542 |
L, 9-7
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1519 | 1497 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -3 | +12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +1 | +22 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1517 | 1531 |
W, 3-2
42%
58%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1517 | 1558 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -14 | -21 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1503 | 1561 |
L, 3-1
40%
60%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1518 | 1556 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +7 | +13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +26 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1523 | 1595 |
W, 4-2
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1516 | 1511 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +11 | +4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1527 | 1539 |
W, 6-3
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1514 | 1514 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -3 | +1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1511 | 1539 |
W, 6-5
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1512 | 1515 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -11 | -15 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1501 | 1524 |
W, 6-3
40%
60%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1509 | 1518 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +4 | +45 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +21 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1510 | 1584 |
W, 5-1
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1507 | 1497 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -14 | +19 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1517 | 1516 |
W, 3-2
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1506 | 1498 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +5 | +14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1535 | 1512 |
L, 6-2
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1508 | 1495 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | 0 | +19 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -4 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1532 | 1510 |
L, 11-10
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1510 | 1472 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -5 | +17 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1529 | 1489 |
L, 5-0
60%
40%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1514 | 1469 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +6 | +7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1544 | 1476 |
W, 8-6
60%
40%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1512 | 1470 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -11 | -11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1525 | 1457 |
W, 5-4
62%
38%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1511 | 1452 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +8 | +4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1543 | 1456 |
W, 7-0
62%
38%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1509 | 1455 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -6 | -14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1527 | 1441 |
W, 7-1
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1506 | 1457 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -8 | +24 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +22 | -4 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1520 | 1477 |
L, 11-10
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1507 | 1489 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -20 | -4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1487 | 1509 |
W, 6-5
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1506 | 1490 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -9 | -13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1497 | 1501 |
W, 7-2
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1503 | 1493 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +2 | +13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1503 | 1530 |
L, 2-1
42%
58%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1504 | 1552 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -6 | -22 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1498 | 1554 |
L, 10-4
39%
61%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1506 | 1550 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -7 | +5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1499 | 1579 |
L, 11-7
40%
60%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1508 | 1548 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -12 | -5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1494 | 1567 |
W, 3-2
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1507 | 1542 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -3 | -9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1528 | 1533 |
W, 7-3
45%
55%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1504 | 1545 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -8 | +12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1520 | 1557 |
L, 6-2
41%
59%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1506 | 1543 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -4 | +51 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +26 | -4 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1528 | 1590 |
W, 7-0
45%
55%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1501 | 1559 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +1 | +2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1526 | 1561 |
L, 4-3
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1503 | 1558 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -12 | -63 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +26 | -4 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1517 | 1491 |
W, 4-3
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1502 | 1515 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -6 | +16 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1520 | 1531 |
L, 6-3
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1504 | 1513 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -7 | +9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1521 | 1522 |
L, 2-1
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1505 | 1512 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -7 | +11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +30 | +5 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1528 | 1528 |
W, 3-0
37%
63%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1502 | 1525 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -10 | +33 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1492 | 1582 |
L, 5-2
42%
58%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1504 | 1523 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -10 | +2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1494 | 1549 |
L, 10-0
43%
57%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1508 | 1520 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +2 | +14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -1 | +26 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1509 | 1560 |
W, 2-1
44%
56%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1506 | 1479 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -14 | +32 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1492 | 1535 |
L, 5-4
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1508 | 1477 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -10 | -12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1498 | 1489 |
L, 9-5
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1510 | 1474 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +5 | +4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -4 | +22 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1511 | 1500 |
L, 5-3
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1512 | 1517 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -14 | +20 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1522 | 1537 |
W, 4-0
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1509 | 1519 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -6 | 0 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1527 | 1519 |
L, 10-0
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1514 | 1515 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -6 | +10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1532 | 1524 |
L, 6-2
37%
63%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1516 | 1584 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -5 | +42 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1535 | 1626 |
W, 3-2
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1514 | 1586 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +1 | -32 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +23 | -1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1538 | 1553 |
L, 4-0
37%
63%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1516 | 1584 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -15 | -13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1501 | 1595 |
W, 4-0
34%
66%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1512 | 1588 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -10 | +1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -4 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1498 | 1613 |
W, 4-2
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1510 | 1536 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -7 | -29 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1503 | 1531 |
W, 6-3
41%
59%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1508 | 1538 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -9 | +3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1499 | 1565 |
L, 9-4
45%
55%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1510 | 1536 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +8 | -11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +23 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1516 | 1548 |
W, 10-5
40%
60%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1507 | 1540 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -12 | +5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1495 | 1569 |
L, 8-4
42%
58%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1509 | 1538 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -8 | -3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1501 | 1559 |
W, 8-3
39%
61%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1505 | 1542 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -10 | +4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +22 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1493 | 1568 |
L, 7-3
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1508 | 1485 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -5 | +20 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1527 | 1505 |
W, 9-0
59%
41%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1504 | 1488 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -1 | -27 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1527 | 1461 |
L, 3-1
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1506 | 1486 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -13 | -1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1517 | 1485 |
L, 7-2
59%
41%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1510 | 1483 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -3 | -14 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1531 | 1467 |
W, 7-5
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1508 | 1551 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +12 | +5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1544 | 1556 |
W, 3-2
45%
55%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1507 | 1552 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -9 | +7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1522 | 1559 |
L, 5-3
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1508 | 1551 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -2 | -7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +21 | -4 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1527 | 1540 |
W, 12-6
38%
62%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1504 | 1581 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -11 | -26 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1493 | 1579 |
L, 3-1
39%
61%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1505 | 1579 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -6 | -23 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1499 | 1580 |
W, 9-4
39%
61%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1502 | 1583 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +12 | -17 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +21 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1511 | 1587 |
W, 11-4
39%
61%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1497 | 1507 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -6 | +36 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1491 | 1567 |
L, 4-0
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1500 | 1505 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -10 | -25 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1490 | 1504 |
W, 5-3
44%
56%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1498 | 1507 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -11 | -5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +26 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1485 | 1528 |
L, 3-2
57%
43%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1499 | 1480 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -6 | -9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1517 | 1471 |
W, 7-2
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1496 | 1483 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +12 | +48 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1532 | 1531 |
L, 11-5
60%
40%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1500 | 1479 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +7 | -21 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1531 | 1458 |
L, 4-2
57%
43%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1503 | 1476 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -14 | -8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -4 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1513 | 1464 |
W, 2-1
55%
45%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1501 | 1467 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -16 | +9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1509 | 1476 |
W, 9-3
57%
43%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1499 | 1470 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -13 | -7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1510 | 1463 |
L, 6-3
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1501 | 1467 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -2 | +15 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +20 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1519 | 1480 |
L, 9-2
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1505 | 1475 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +14 | 0 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1519 | 1499 |
W, 5-2
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1503 | 1478 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +2 | +3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1505 | 1505 |
L, 8-5
45%
55%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1505 | 1476 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -12 | +27 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +22 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1491 | 1525 |
L, 4-0
44%
56%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1507 | 1512 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -17 | -8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1490 | 1528 |
L, 5-2
45%
55%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1509 | 1510 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -1 | +6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1508 | 1540 |
W, 4-0
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1506 | 1513 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +9 | +4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1515 | 1541 |
W, 3-2
43%
57%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1504 | 1515 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -1 | +12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1500 | 1551 |
W, 12-5
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1501 | 1506 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -10 | -24 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1491 | 1506 |
L, 7-5
44%
56%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1502 | 1505 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -16 | 0 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1486 | 1529 |
L, 3-0
44%
56%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1504 | 1503 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -2 | +17 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +22 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1500 | 1542 |
W, 12-8
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1502 | 1478 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +10 | +13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1536 | 1491 |
W, 7-6
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1501 | 1479 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -4 | +3 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1521 | 1482 |
W, 5-3
59%
41%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1499 | 1480 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -11 | -24 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | -4 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1512 | 1452 |
W, 4-1
43%
57%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1497 | 1506 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -25 | +37 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1496 | 1543 |
L, 4-3
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1498 | 1504 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +1 | -10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1523 | 1494 |
W, 7-0
57%
43%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1495 | 1507 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +7 | -29 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1526 | 1478 |
L, 7-1
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1498 | 1504 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +1 | +31 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +22 | -2 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1521 | 1533 |
L, 3-1
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1500 | 1477 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -11 | +15 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1489 | 1516 |
W, 7-3
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1497 | 1479 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -22 | -4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1475 | 1499 |
L, 3-2
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1498 | 1478 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -1 | +5 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1495 | 1507 |
L, 5-3
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1500 | 1553 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +9 | -19 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1533 | 1534 |
W, 2-1
44%
56%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1499 | 1555 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | 0 | +10 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1523 | 1565 |
L, 7-6
40%
60%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1500 | 1554 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -13 | +31 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +21 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1508 | 1582 |
L, 11-3
42%
58%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1503 | 1522 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -16 | -2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1487 | 1544 |
L, 8-7
45%
55%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1504 | 1521 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +1 | -2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1505 | 1543 |
W, 6-4
41%
59%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1502 | 1523 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +9 | +29 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +22 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1509 | 1574 |
W, 5-2
46%
54%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1499 | 1510 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -6 | -12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1493 | 1522 |
L, 6-3
39%
61%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1501 | 1509 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -14 | +31 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1487 | 1564 |
W, 6-3
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1499 | 1511 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -5 | -35 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +26 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1491 | 1502 |
W, 2-1
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1498 | 1483 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | 0 | +8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1522 | 1491 |
W, 8-5
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1496 | 1485 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +11 | +18 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1531 | 1503 |
W, 2-1
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1494 | 1487 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -15 | -11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1503 | 1476 |
W, 2-1
52%
48%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1493 | 1507 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -13 | -15 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1504 | 1492 |
L, 6-2
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1496 | 1504 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -21 | -2 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1499 | 1502 |
W, 5-4
56%
44%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1494 | 1505 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -4 | -31 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1514 | 1474 |
L, 8-7
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1496 | 1504 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -13 | -27 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +21 | -4 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1504 | 1473 |
L, 2-1
40%
60%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1497 | 1549 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +12 | +8 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1509 | 1581 |
L, 5-1
34%
66%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1498 | 1547 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -17 | +25 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1481 | 1596 |
W, 5-2
41%
59%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1496 | 1550 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +3 | -13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1499 | 1561 |
L, 3-0
40%
60%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1497 | 1548 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -14 | -18 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +22 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1480 | 1552 |
L, 1-0
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1499 | 1476 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -8 | +9 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1491 | 1509 |
L, 3-2
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1500 | 1474 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +14 | -7 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1514 | 1491 |
L, 7-1
47%
53%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1503 | 1471 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -13 | +12 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -3 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1487 | 1507 |
L, 8-3
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1506 | 1510 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +7 | +30 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1537 | 1540 |
L, 8-3
54%
46%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1509 | 1507 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -11 | -16 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1522 | 1491 |
W, 6-5
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1508 | 1508 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -7 | +13 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +26 | -1 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1527 | 1520 |
W, 10-9
53%
47%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1507 | 1523 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +16 | +1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1547 | 1524 |
W, 5-4
51%
49%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1505 | 1524 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +3 | 0 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +24 | 0 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1532 | 1524 |
W, 5-1
49%
51%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1503 | 1527 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -16 | -11 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | +22 | -3 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1509 | 1513 |
L, 5-1
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1505 | 1485 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | -5 | +4 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1500 | 1513 |
W, 5-0
50%
50%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1502 | 1488 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +9 | +1 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1511 | 1513 |
W, 7-6
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1501 | 1489 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +19 | +20 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | 0 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1520 | 1533 |
L, 4-2
48%
52%
Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating
| Team rating | 1503 | 1487 | ||
| Pitcher adjustment | Adjust for pitcher quality | +6 | +6 | |
| Home field, travel and rest | Adjust for home field, travel and rest | -2 | +24 | |
| Adjusted team rating | 1507 | 1517 |
AL West standings
| Games back | Chance to make playoffs | Make playoffs | Chance to win division | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | AstrosAstros101-61 | — | ✓ | ✓ | ||
 | AngelsAngels80-82 | 21.0 | — | — | ||
 | RangersRangers78-84 | 23.0 | — | — | ||
 | MarinersMariners78-84 | 23.0 | — | — | ||
 | AthleticsAthletics75-87 | 26.0 | — | — |
This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game. Methodology »
For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB »
Design and development by Jay Boice and Gus Wezerek. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.
Comments