Updated Nov. 2, 2017 at 12:02 AM

2017 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Red Sox are done for the season.twitter bird

Team rating

Starting pitchers

Pitcher score Adjustment to team ratingAdj. to
team rating
Chris Sale
Chris Sale58.9+32
Eduardo Rodriguez
Eduardo Rodriguez52.4+1
Drew Pomeranz
Drew Pomeranz52.2+1
Rick Porcello
Rick Porcello48.3-18
Doug Fister
Doug Fister48.1-19
Hector Velazquez
Hector Velazquez46.9-24

Completed games

vs. Astros

L, 5-4

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15521570
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-18+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15581576

W, 10-3

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15461576
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-17+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-2
Adjusted team rating15511575

L, 8-2

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15491572
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5+15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15541611

L, 8-2

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15531569
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+37+42
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+3+27
Adjusted team rating15931638

vs. Astros

L, 4-3

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15551567
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-34+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15451570

W, 6-3

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15521569
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15771570

L, 3-2

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15541568
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-19+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15591572

L, 12-2

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15591563
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-4
Adjusted team rating15871561

W, 10-7

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15571499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-20+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15611511

L, 9-4

66%

34%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15611495
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+44+19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating16291514

L, 6-4

68%

32%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15641492
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-35
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-2
Adjusted team rating15891455

at Reds

W, 5-4

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15621453
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-25-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15371476

W, 5-0

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15601456
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15561491

W, 5-4

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15591457
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-19+17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15401498

W, 9-0

62%

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15561491
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+38-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15941507

W, 1-0

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15551492
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4+21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15591537

W, 10-8

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15531494
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-18+31
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+22
Adjusted team rating15321547

at Rays

L, 3-2

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15551494
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15521506

W, 3-1

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15531496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-22+15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15311535

W, 13-6

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15501499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+42-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+26
Adjusted team rating15891513

W, 6-2

63%

37%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15481480
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality00
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15721480

L, 7-3

63%

37%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15521477
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15611465

W, 11-1

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15491480
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7+14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-2
Adjusted team rating15681492

vs. Rays

L, 4-1

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15511498
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-23+13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15521511

W, 9-0

66%

34%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15491501
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+41-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating16141496

W, 9-3

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15461503
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-1
Adjusted team rating15711518

W, 6-1

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15441490
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-17-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15511476

W, 3-2

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15431491
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-60
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15611491

L, 10-4

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15471487
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15+18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-2
Adjusted team rating15541503

L, 9-2

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15511539
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+47+13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15981576

L, 5-1

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15531536
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15541572

W, 4-1

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15501539
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-25+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15251569

L, 6-2

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15531536
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15471563

W, 7-1

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15501486
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-19+18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15311528

W, 3-0

66%

34%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15481488
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+43-35
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15911477

W, 6-5

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15471489
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4+21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15491534

L, 2-1

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15491507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-29-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15441503

L, 7-0

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15531502
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2+13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15751515

L, 16-3

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15591496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+210
Adjusted team rating15691503

L, 13-6

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15641555
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+49-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating16131565

W, 6-1

40%

60%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15601559
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2+48
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15581631

W, 9-1

40%

60%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15551564
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-390
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15161588

L, 5-4

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15561562
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3-17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+21
Adjusted team rating15501566

W, 5-1

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15541539
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15661544

L, 4-3

64%

36%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15561537
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+550
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating16351537

W, 9-6

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15541539
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-2
Adjusted team rating15791540

W, 5-4

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15531524
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15751535

W, 10-4

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15501527
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-1
Adjusted team rating15611515

L, 7-3

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15531553
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-36-16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-3
Adjusted team rating15391534

W, 3-2

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15521534
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+52+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating16041559

W, 10-5

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15481537
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0+22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15481583

L, 5-4

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15501536
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6-20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+22
Adjusted team rating15431538

at Rays

W, 8-2

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15471507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15341520

W, 2-0

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15451508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+49-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+26
Adjusted team rating15931528

W, 6-3

63%

37%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15441447
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-35-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15331438

W, 4-1

70%

30%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15431448
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1-24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15681424

W, 3-2

62%

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15421449
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6+25
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15601474

W, 9-5

63%

37%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15401451
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8+18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-3
Adjusted team rating15581466

W, 12-10

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15391552
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+56+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating16191557

W, 6-2

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15361555
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-41-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15191539

vs. Royals

L, 5-3

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15381509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15611510

W, 9-8

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15371510
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15581495

L, 4-2

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15391508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-9+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-1
Adjusted team rating15521514

W, 4-0

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15371516
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+53-16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15901524

L, 6-5

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15381515
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15391545

L, 4-0

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15411513
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0+34
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15381571

L, 3-2

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15421507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-9-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15331528

L, 7-3

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15451504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+12-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15571520

W, 6-2

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15431506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+51-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-4+26
Adjusted team rating15901528

L, 8-6

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15451491
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-38-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15311477

W, 5-1

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15431493
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3+16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15641509

W, 5-4

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15421495
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-30+19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15361514

L, 4-3

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15431493
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15661512

W, 3-0

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15411533
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15711535

L, 3-0

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15441531
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15581538

L, 4-1

62%

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15471528
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+47+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating16181535

W, 5-4

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15451529
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+30+7
Adjusted team rating15741539

at Rays

L, 5-3

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15471510
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7+18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15541552

L, 1-0

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15491508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15361536

W, 8-3

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15461511
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15461530

L, 4-1

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15491508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+50+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+21
Adjusted team rating15961539

L, 8-2

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15521517
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-32-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15201526

W, 11-4

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15481521
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4+42
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15521587

W, 7-5

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15461522
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-14-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+21
Adjusted team rating15291533

W, 15-1

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15411501
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15401507

W, 7-1

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15391503
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+47-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15861513

W, 7-4

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15361506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-30+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15041535

vs. Twins

W, 6-3

63%

37%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15351481
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15621467

L, 4-1

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15381478
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15501473

W, 9-2

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15351481
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15561477

W, 4-1

66%

34%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15341482
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+48+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating16061488

vs. Angels

L, 4-2

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15361510
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-29-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15311503

L, 6-3

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15381508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15651499

W, 9-4

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15361510
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+23-2
Adjusted team rating15481516

L, 6-4

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15381488
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15351515

W, 8-3

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15361490
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+48-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15841504

L, 4-2

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15371488
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-33-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+21
Adjusted team rating15011502

W, 6-5

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15361576
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8-23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15441577

L, 7-1

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15391573
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6-32
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15331565

W, 2-1

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15371574
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+26
Adjusted team rating15281582

L, 1-0

69%

31%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15391432
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+44-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15831446

W, 7-3

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15371434
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-19+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+22
Adjusted team rating15161461

W, 4-3

68%

32%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15361435
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15681436

W, 6-5

66%

34%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15361436
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15561441

vs. Tigers

L, 8-3

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15391499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15611493

W, 11-3

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15361501
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+41+25
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating16011526

W, 5-3

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15351503
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-16-30
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-3
Adjusted team rating15411470

L, 9-1

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15391536
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+12+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15511563

L, 8-0

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15421533
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15391561

W, 5-4

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15411534
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-50
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15361558

W, 7-3

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15391503
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+39+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15781529

W, 5-2

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15361505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+9+21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15451550

L, 3-2

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15381503
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15371528

L, 7-5

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15401502
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15441529

W, 4-1

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15381488
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8-17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15301495

W, 13-7

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15351491
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+45+23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15801538

L, 5-4

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15371489
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15421504

L, 5-0

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15401503
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2-21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15621482

W, 6-0

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15371506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-34-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15271501

W, 3-0

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15361508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15661493

W, 6-2

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15341515
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10-33
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15481482

W, 9-4

63%

37%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15321517
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+50-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating16061512

W, 11-6

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15301520
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2-20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-1
Adjusted team rating15541499

W, 12-3

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15261481
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6+17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15321522

L, 8-3

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15291478
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10+14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15191516

L, 3-2

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15301476
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+50+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15801504

L, 8-3

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15341473
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-27-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-4+21
Adjusted team rating15031483

W, 5-4

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15321517
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15371547

W, 6-3

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15301519
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+26
Adjusted team rating15321548

vs. Rays

L, 11-2

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15351504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15481497

W, 6-3

66%

34%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15331505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+47-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating16041490

L, 5-4

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15351503
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-3
Adjusted team rating15631499

W, 4-1

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15331489
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15331498

L, 7-4

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15351487
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-37+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14981519

L, 11-7

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15381484
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15331501

W, 17-6

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15341480
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+46+48
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15801552

W, 11-1

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15301484
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15341500

L, 4-3

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15311483
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15261497

L, 8-3

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15351506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-30-19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15291487

W, 4-2

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15331508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15501506

W, 5-2

62%

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15321509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+43+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15991513

L, 5-2

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15341507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2+18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15601523

vs. Cubs

W, 6-2

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15311571
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4+20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15511591

L, 7-4

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15331569
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-24-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15331568

W, 5-4

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15321571
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6+15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15501586

L, 3-0

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15341521
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+43+17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating16011538

L, 3-1

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15361519
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+27+3
Adjusted team rating15661504

W, 6-2

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15341511
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15271539

L, 4-2

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15361509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-19-17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15171516

L, 2-0

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15371508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+22
Adjusted team rating15291541

W, 4-1

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15351506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+38+15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15731545

L, 3-0

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15381503
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3-19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15411508

W, 8-7

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15361505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-29+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+26
Adjusted team rating15051533

vs. Rays

W, 4-3

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15351507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-18-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15411503

W, 7-5

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15341508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15551511

W, 2-1

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15331509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+34+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15911519

L, 10-5

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15361506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18+24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15781528

W, 4-3

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15351492
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15481487

L, 12-5

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15391497
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-120
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15511497

W, 8-1

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15361500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+210
Adjusted team rating15461509

L, 2-1

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15371506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+27+46
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15641576

W, 7-5

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15361507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+20-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15561522

L, 4-1

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15381505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11-23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15271506

L, 6-5

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15391504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10+28
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+22
Adjusted team rating15281554

W, 3-0

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15381501
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+22+21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26+2
Adjusted team rating15861524

W, 5-3

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15361503
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+20+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15801507

AL East standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
Red SoxRed Sox93-69
YankeesYankees91-712.0
RaysRays80-8213.0
Blue JaysBlue Jays76-8617.0
OriolesOrioles75-8718.0

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game. Methodology »

For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB »

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