Updated Sep. 24, 2017 at 12:05 AM

2017 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Yankees have a 100% chance of making the playoffs.twitter bird

Their team rating is 1559, the same as last week.

AL East standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
YankeesYankees86-684.03%
Red SoxRed Sox90-6497%
RaysRays76-7914.5<1%
Blue JaysBlue Jays72-8318.5
OriolesOrioles74-8217.0

Upcoming games

Garcia vs. Stroman

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15591490
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-20+21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15391535

vs. Royals

Sabathia vs. Junis

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15591485
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-3
Adjusted team rating15801499

vs. Rays

Severino vs. Snell

64%

36%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15591502
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+24+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating16071508

Tanaka vs. Andriese

63%

37%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15591502
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15831489

Gray vs. Cobb

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15591502
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15871512

Garcia vs. Biagini

64%

36%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15591490
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-20-23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15631467

Sabathia vs. Stroman

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15591490
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15821511

Severino vs. Anderson

71%

29%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15591490
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+24-35
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating16071455

Team rating

Starting pitchers

Pitcher score Adjustment to team ratingAdj. to
team rating
Luis Severino
Luis Severino57.8+24
Sonny Gray
Sonny Gray53.6+4
Masahiro Tanaka
Masahiro Tanaka52.8+0
CC Sabathia
CC Sabathia52.4-1
Jaime Garcia
Jaime Garcia48.5-20

Completed games

W, 5-1

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15571492
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15611492

L, 8-1

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15611487
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15671521

vs. Twins

W, 11-3

68%

32%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15591502
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+25-23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating16081479

W, 5-2

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15581504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15781512

W, 2-1

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15561505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-27+27
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15531529

L, 6-4

65%

35%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15591492
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15901481

W, 9-3

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15571494
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-90
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15721494

W, 8-2

64%

36%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15541496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+24+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating16021502

W, 13-5

62%

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15521499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-2
Adjusted team rating15811496

at Rays

W, 3-2

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15501500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-26+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest00
Adjusted team rating15241510

L, 2-1

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15521499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest00
Adjusted team rating15591500

W, 5-1

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15501501
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3-3
Adjusted team rating15461488

W, 16-7

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15461526
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15391541

W, 3-1

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15441527
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+19+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15631561

L, 11-5

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15481524
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+13-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+23
Adjusted team rating15581542

W, 9-1

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15441508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6+22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+2+26
Adjusted team rating15521556

L, 7-6

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15451507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15481533

W, 7-4

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15431509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5+32
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15361565

W, 9-2

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15391551
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+13+47
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15761598

W, 5-1

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15361553
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+12+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15721554

L, 4-1

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15391550
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6-25
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15691525

W, 6-2

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15361553
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15631547

L, 9-4

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15401570
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1-24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15631546

L, 2-1

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15411569
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-26-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26+2
Adjusted team rating15411553

L, 6-2

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15431567
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15+48
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15821613

W, 10-1

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15401512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15721500

W, 6-3

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15381513
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3-20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15651493

L, 2-1

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15401512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-1
Adjusted team rating15641514

L, 10-6

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15421476
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-22+32
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15201532

W, 10-2

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15401479
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15551485

W, 13-4

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15361482
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+9-17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+26
Adjusted team rating15441491

L, 5-1

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15391554
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15441566

W, 4-3

36%

64%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15371556
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0+55
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15371635

L, 9-6

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15391554
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+26
Adjusted team rating15401579

at Mets

W, 7-5

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15371488
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+13+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15501520

W, 5-3

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15351490
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-19-21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+23
Adjusted team rating15151492

vs. Mets

W, 5-4

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15341491
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5+43
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15631534

W, 4-2

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15331492
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-17-21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-1
Adjusted team rating15401470

L, 3-2

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15341552
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+52
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15591604

L, 10-5

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15371548
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+220
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15831548

W, 5-4

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15361550
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-20-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-1
Adjusted team rating15381543

L, 4-0

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15381490
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15411522

W, 11-5

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15361493
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15471502

L, 4-2

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15381491
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2+17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+23
Adjusted team rating15401531

W, 8-1

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15341553
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+16-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15501572

W, 2-1

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15321555
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15281570

L, 7-2

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15351552
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-18-17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15171559

L, 5-1

38%

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15361551
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2+48
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+23
Adjusted team rating15361622

vs. Tigers

L, 2-0

64%

36%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15391494
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+9-21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15721473

L, 4-3

63%

37%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15411492
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15711480

W, 7-3

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15391494
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15+29
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15781521

vs. Rays

L, 5-3

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15411504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15641510

W, 5-4

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15391505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-25-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15381492

W, 6-1

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15371507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15631496

W, 6-5

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15361509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+9+17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15691523

vs. Reds

W, 9-5

66%

34%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15351446
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+13+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15721456

W, 4-2

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15331447
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4+27
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-2
Adjusted team rating15511472

W, 6-4

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15311515
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-19-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15121524

L, 6-5

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15331513
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15371545

W, 5-1

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15301516
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15401529

W, 4-1

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15281518
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+20
Adjusted team rating15361540

L, 6-1

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15311474
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15291499

W, 6-3

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15291476
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13-27
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15161473

L, 4-2

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15311474
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+21
Adjusted team rating15211503

L, 3-0

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15331541
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15351571

W, 3-0

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15311544
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15381558

W, 4-1

38%

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15281547
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7+47
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15351618

L, 5-4

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15291545
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+7+30
Adjusted team rating15391574

L, 5-3

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15311508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15611517

W, 5-3

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15301509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15581499

L, 9-4

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15331506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-3
Adjusted team rating15621508

L, 7-6

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15351497
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15571502

L, 4-1

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15381494
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+9+21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15711515

W, 6-3

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15361496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0+14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-2
Adjusted team rating15571508

L, 8-1

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15391578
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15451595

L, 7-6

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15401577
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2-21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15421580

W, 13-4

35%

65%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15341583
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4+26
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15271633

L, 4-3

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15361473
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10-20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15261477

W, 12-3

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15321478
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2+22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15301524

L, 4-3

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15331476
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+28
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15341528

W, 6-5

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15321477
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15271500

L, 7-6

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15331525
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-28
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15611497

L, 8-1

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15381521
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15501508

W, 2-1

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15361522
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8+37
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15521556

vs. Angels

L, 10-5

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15401507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15691495

W, 8-4

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15381509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15591501

L, 8-3

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15421505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-2
Adjusted team rating15681493

L, 4-3

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15431475
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15371486

L, 5-2

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15461472
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-40
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15421496

L, 7-6

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15471470
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4+31
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15511525

L, 8-7

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15491469
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+20
Adjusted team rating15471490

L, 7-5

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15511508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15561544

L, 3-2

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15521507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15591522

W, 5-3

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15511508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-4+21
Adjusted team rating15401527

W, 14-3

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15471494
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-28+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15431497

W, 16-3

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15431498
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15661500

W, 8-2

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15401501
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5+23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15591522

W, 9-1

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15361539
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15631551

W, 8-0

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15331542
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15611539

L, 5-4

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15341541
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15581536

L, 3-2

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15351515
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15341546

W, 7-0

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15321519
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-9-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15231528

L, 7-5

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15341517
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15451523

W, 12-2

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15281522
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0+28
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15261574

L, 10-4

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15321498
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15371524

W, 8-3

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15291501
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15241535

L, 3-2

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15301500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8+20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+21
Adjusted team rating15201541

W, 9-5

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15281479
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15621489

W, 3-2

62%

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15271480
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1-16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15501464

L, 4-1

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15301477
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0+14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-2
Adjusted team rating15561489

vs. Royals

W, 3-0

64%

36%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15281467
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8-20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15441447

L, 6-2

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15321464
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13+18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15431482

W, 4-2

63%

37%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15301465
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+14+14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-3
Adjusted team rating15651476

at Rays

W, 3-2

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15291516
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2+15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15311555

L, 9-5

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15321513
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15431532

L, 5-4

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15331512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+23
Adjusted team rating15191540

L, 5-1

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15361464
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15261500

W, 11-7

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15331466
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15+19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15481509

W, 7-1

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15311469
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+26
Adjusted team rating15271477

vs. Astros

L, 10-7

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15331559
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+21-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15781546

W, 11-6

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15301562
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11-23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26+2
Adjusted team rating15451541

L, 5-1

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15331559
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13+13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15441572

L, 3-2

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15341558
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11+28
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+23-3
Adjusted team rating15681583

at Reds

L, 5-3

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15361480
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15311510

W, 10-4

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15331483
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+21-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15521489

at Cubs

W, 5-4

37%

63%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15311561
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-16+24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15151609

W, 11-6

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15281565
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15-51
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15131538

W, 3-2

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15261566
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11+24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+24
Adjusted team rating15361614

W, 8-6

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15251506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15501511

W, 11-5

63%

37%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15231508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+25-26
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15721482

L, 7-1

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15261505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-14+21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15361524

L, 7-4

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15281505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-20+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15321513

W, 12-4

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15251508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15561504

W, 14-11

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15231510
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+50
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+220
Adjusted team rating15501510

W, 3-0

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15211534
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17+43
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15381601

W, 3-1

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15191536
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-18+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+3+27
Adjusted team rating15041566

L, 2-1

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15201495
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-20+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15001529

W, 11-5

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15161499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11+26
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15271549

L, 6-3

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15191496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+12-28
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+23
Adjusted team rating15311491

W, 9-1

62%

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15161480
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+16-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15561469

L, 4-1

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15191478
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-23+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15201488

W, 7-4

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15171480
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-20+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15211480

W, 9-3

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141495
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15481487

W, 3-2

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131497
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10+23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15471520

W, 4-3

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121498
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15541490

vs. Rays

W, 3-2

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-26-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15091495

W, 8-4

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-18-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26+2
Adjusted team rating15161505

W, 8-1

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051513
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-3
Adjusted team rating15341512

W, 7-3

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021503
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+13-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15151521

L, 5-4

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041502
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+22+20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15261546

L, 6-5

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051501
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-25+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+26
Adjusted team rating14791530

at Rays

L, 4-1

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15171532

W, 5-0

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041510
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+2+26
Adjusted team rating15171547

L, 7-3

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+31+21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15341553

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game. Methodology »

For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB »

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