Updated Sep. 24, 2017 at 12:05 AM

2017 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Mariners have a <1% chance of making the playoffs.twitter bird

Their team rating is 1505, down 9 points from last week.

AL West standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
AstrosAstros95-59
AngelsAngels76-7819.01%
RangersRangers76-7819.01%
MarinersMariners75-8020.5<1%
AthleticsAthletics71-8324.0

Upcoming games

Leake vs. Kluber

33%

67%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051602
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5+53
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15341655

Hernandez vs. Gossett

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051490
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15061505

Paxton vs. Mengden

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051490
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+34+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15391520

Ramirez vs. Graveman

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051490
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+13+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15181522

Moore vs. Skaggs

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+20
Adjusted team rating14951536

Leake vs. Nolasco

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15101529

Hernandez vs. Bridwell

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15091537

Team rating

Starting pitchers

Pitcher score Adjustment to team ratingAdj. to
team rating
James Paxton
James Paxton54.9+34
Erasmo Ramirez
Erasmo Ramirez50.4+13
Mike Leake
Mike Leake48.7+5
Felix Hernandez
Felix Hernandez48.5+5
Andrew Moore
Andrew Moore45.5-10

Completed games

L, 11-4

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081600
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15221603

W, 3-1

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061602
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7-20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15371579

L, 4-2

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081515
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+37+20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15691535

L, 8-6

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101513
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15421524

L, 3-1

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121510
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-1
Adjusted team rating15371504

L, 7-1

35%

65%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141550
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7+39
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15071613

L, 8-6

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15161548
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11+17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15271589

L, 5-2

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15181546
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+42+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+21
Adjusted team rating15581570

W, 10-4

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141515
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5+16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15191555

W, 8-1

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101519
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15081538

W, 10-3

40%

60%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061523
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-24+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14821552

L, 5-3

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071522
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2+19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-4+24
Adjusted team rating15051565

vs. Angels

L, 5-3

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091517
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15431519

W, 8-1

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061521
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15181516

W, 4-3

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041522
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-1
Adjusted team rating15271517

vs. Astros

L, 5-3

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061562
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15191571

L, 3-1

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071561
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+33
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15321594

L, 6-2

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091558
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+12+21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-4
Adjusted team rating15451575

W, 10-2

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061467
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-16-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15141465

W, 7-6

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051468
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-18-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15111464

W, 3-2

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041469
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-1
Adjusted team rating15221477

L, 8-7

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15121525

L, 4-0

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11+24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15181557

L, 7-6

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-18-19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+22
Adjusted team rating14891511

L, 10-1

40%

60%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121540
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15001572

L, 6-3

40%

60%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131538
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-20+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14931565

W, 2-1

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121540
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+22
Adjusted team rating15141564

W, 9-6

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101471
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15201506

L, 4-0

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121468
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-18+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14941493

W, 6-5

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111470
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-100
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating14991494

at Rays

L, 3-0

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131493
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-21-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14921508

W, 7-6

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121494
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15151509

W, 7-1

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081498
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+21
Adjusted team rating15121517

W, 7-6

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15181496

W, 3-1

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15171492

L, 11-3

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15+15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15181508

vs. Angels

L, 4-2

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111516
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15391527

L, 6-3

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141514
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15391511

L, 6-5

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15151512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15241501

L, 6-3

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15181509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+45+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-3
Adjusted team rating15841510

W, 6-3

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15161473
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-14-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15021486

W, 7-6

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15151474
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15201503

L, 9-1

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15191502
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-26
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15231500

W, 8-7

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15171503
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13+25
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+2+26
Adjusted team rating15061554

W, 5-2

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15151505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+41+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15561532

L, 6-4

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15171503
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15-20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+21
Adjusted team rating15001504

L, 5-1

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15201503
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15281525

W, 8-7

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15181504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15221505

W, 6-4

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15161506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3+19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-4+24
Adjusted team rating15151549

vs. Mets

W, 9-1

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141497
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+38+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15761501

W, 3-2

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-18+39
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15181538

L, 7-5

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-3
Adjusted team rating15481475

L, 4-0

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15161537
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-16+53
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15241590

W, 6-5

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15151538
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15451539

W, 4-0

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131541
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+340
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15711538

L, 6-4

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15151531
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15-19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15241512

W, 6-5

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131533
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15451537

L, 5-1

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15161530
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15291540

L, 4-1

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15181528
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+20-3
Adjusted team rating15401536

W, 4-1

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15151591
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+31-16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15461599

L, 6-2

36%

64%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15171589
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15071606

W, 9-7

34%

66%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15151592
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10+19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15221635

W, 7-6

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131467
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15131481

W, 4-3

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121468
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15141481

W, 4-2

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111469
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+27-20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+5+30
Adjusted team rating15431479

W, 4-0

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091474
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1-20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15321454

L, 4-3

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111472
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15401465

W, 7-2

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081475
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+25+27
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15571502

L, 7-4

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111472
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15361469

vs. Royals

L, 9-6

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+14+23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15521522

L, 7-3

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15161496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15411513

L, 3-1

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15191494
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-4
Adjusted team rating15411496

W, 5-3

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15171512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+20-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15371522

L, 4-0

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15191509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15191527

W, 10-0

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15151514
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+24
Adjusted team rating15241532

L, 5-4

65%

35%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15171434
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15451437

L, 8-2

69%

31%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15221429
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+20+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-3
Adjusted team rating15681434

vs. Astros

L, 8-2

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15251579
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11-20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15601559

L, 5-2

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15271577
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15521600

W, 13-3

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15221582
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5-24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15511555

vs. Tigers

W, 9-6

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15211495
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15451492

W, 7-5

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15191497
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+23+26
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15661523

W, 5-4

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15181498
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10-20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15521478

W, 6-2

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15161500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+20-4
Adjusted team rating15371482

W, 7-3

37%

63%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131523
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-18+39
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14951586

L, 10-4

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15151520
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15021535

L, 10-4

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15191517
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+30+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15461546

L, 6-2

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15211480
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+16-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15371499

W, 6-4

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15191482
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0+45
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15191551

L, 20-7

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15251476
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15101487

W, 14-3

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15201481
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-19-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+20
Adjusted team rating14981496

L, 4-0

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15241514
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+32+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15801523

L, 4-2

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15261512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+13+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15631521

W, 4-2

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15241514
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-1
Adjusted team rating15451505

vs. Twins

L, 2-1

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15261478
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-16-17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15341461

W, 6-5

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15251479
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-21-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15281476

W, 12-3

65%

35%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15221481
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+35-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-1
Adjusted team rating15831476

vs. Rays

W, 7-1

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15191509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15501514

W, 9-2

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15161513
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15341517

W, 12-4

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121517
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15211525

L, 6-3

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15231497

W, 5-0

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+34+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-3
Adjusted team rating15671515

W, 10-4

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081515
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15131550

W, 6-5

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071517
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-4+24
Adjusted team rating15001542

W, 5-0

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15031540
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-21-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14821562

L, 6-0

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061537
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5-34
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15011527

L, 3-0

40%

60%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081536
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating14931566

W, 4-2

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051553
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15091562

L, 5-1

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071551
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15071567

L, 10-1

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111548
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10-19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+23
Adjusted team rating14991552

L, 8-1

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15151484
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-9+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15301486

L, 16-1

62%

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15231476
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-9-26
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15381450

L, 2-1

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15241474
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6+25
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15421499

W, 5-4

64%

36%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15241475
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10-33
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15381439

W, 4-0

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15211475
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-20-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15251473

L, 9-6

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15241473
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-24+16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15241489

W, 6-5

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15231474
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7+16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+20-4
Adjusted team rating15361486

L, 3-2

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15241515
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8+13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15161552

L, 7-2

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15271512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-25+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15021538

L, 4-0

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15291510
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-19-20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15101514

L, 7-2

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15321507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-17+24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15131555

W, 11-6

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15291466
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15221487

W, 10-9

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15281467
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+26
Adjusted team rating15251509

W, 4-3

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15261506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-38-28
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15121478

W, 8-2

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15231509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-24-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15231496

L, 3-1

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15251507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11+35
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-4
Adjusted team rating15381538

vs. Angels

W, 11-3

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15221503
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2-16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15441487

W, 8-7

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15211504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15431505

L, 6-4

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15231502
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+29+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-2
Adjusted team rating15741509

L, 12-4

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15271551
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-14-23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15131552

L, 4-3

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15281550
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15151570

W, 3-1

38%

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15251552
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-9+21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+24
Adjusted team rating15151597

W, 2-1

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15241505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6+35
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15181564

W, 8-0

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15201508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+24-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15441526

L, 19-9

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15251504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1-23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+23
Adjusted team rating15221504

W, 11-1

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15201492
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15+13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15051529

L, 4-3

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15211490
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15211511

L, 3-1

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15231488
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4+18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15191530

L, 9-6

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15261486
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+26-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15491495

W, 10-5

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15231508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15481499

L, 5-0

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15271505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-17+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15341508

W, 6-1

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15241508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-4
Adjusted team rating15371499

W, 8-7

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15231510
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0+14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15471524

W, 5-0

62%

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15211512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+19-33
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15641479

W, 2-1

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15191513
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-3
Adjusted team rating15441504

vs. Astros

L, 10-5

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15221540
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15331532

L, 7-5

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15241538
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15411525

W, 6-0

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15221541
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15-20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-4
Adjusted team rating15581517

L, 10-9

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15231507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15241547

L, 5-4

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15241505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15241532

L, 5-1

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15271503
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11-16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+22
Adjusted team rating15131509

W, 4-2

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15251550
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15211562

L, 5-3

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15261548
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11-21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15371551

L, 2-1

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15281547
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15301581

L, 3-0

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15291545
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0+15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-4+24
Adjusted team rating15251584

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game. Methodology »

For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB »

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