Updated Sep. 24, 2017 at 12:05 AM

2017 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Twins have a 96% chance of making the playoffs.twitter bird

Their team rating is 1509, up 7 points from last week.

AL Central standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
IndiansIndians97-58
TwinsTwins81-7416.096%
RoyalsRoyals76-7820.5<1%
TigersTigers62-9335.0
White SoxWhite Sox62-9234.5

Upcoming games

Berrios vs. Farmer

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091446
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6-22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15151448

Colon vs. Tomlin

34%

66%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091602
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-28-28
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+1+22
Adjusted team rating14821596

Mejia vs. Salazar

37%

63%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091602
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2-24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15111602

Gibson vs. Bauer

37%

63%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091602
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15151608

vs. Tigers

Santana vs. Boyd

65%

35%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091446
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+27+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-2
Adjusted team rating15571447

Berrios vs. Farmer

66%

34%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091446
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6-22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15391424

Colon vs. Sanchez

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091446
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-28-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15051434

Team rating

Starting pitchers

Pitcher score Adjustment to team ratingAdj. to
team rating
Ervin Santana
Ervin Santana53.6+27
Kyle Gibson
Kyle Gibson49.0+6
Jose Berrios
Jose Berrios49.0+6
Adalberto Mejia
Adalberto Mejia48.2+2
Bartolo Colon
Bartolo Colon41.8-28

Completed games

W, 10-4

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061449
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+27-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15331472

W, 7-3

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041451
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15101473

W, 12-1

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15001455
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1-20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating14991459

L, 11-3

32%

68%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021559
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-23+25
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14791608

L, 5-2

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041558
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15121578

L, 2-1

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051556
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+27-27
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15291553

W, 13-7

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021494
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6-17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15321477

L, 7-2

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061491
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15311496

L, 4-3

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071490
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-24+16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15071506

W, 3-2

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061491
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6-29
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15361459

vs. Padres

W, 3-1

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051458
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+23+28
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15521486

W, 16-0

62%

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15011462
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3-22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-1
Adjusted team rating15281439

L, 11-3

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041482
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-18-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14861501

L, 5-2

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061480
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7+14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15131518

W, 8-5

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041482
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+26-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15301500

W, 4-2

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15031484
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+21
Adjusted team rating15001490

at Rays

W, 10-6

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15001506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15041531

L, 2-1

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15011505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-21-20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14801509

L, 11-4

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041502
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+9+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+21
Adjusted team rating15101531

vs. Royals

L, 5-4

62%

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061481
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+27-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15571473

W, 17-0

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15011486
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15201481

L, 7-6

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021485
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-16+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15101493

W, 5-4

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15011449
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-24+24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15011473

W, 11-1

64%

36%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14981452
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3-25
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15251427

W, 6-4

66%

34%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14971453
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+28-16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+230
Adjusted team rating15481437

W, 7-2

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14941492
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14881498

L, 10-9

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14951491
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14841520

W, 6-1

40%

60%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14921494
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-24+19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+21
Adjusted team rating14661534

L, 5-1

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14951448
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-27
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14991445

L, 4-3

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14961446
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+26-17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15221453

W, 4-1

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14941448
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14841470

W, 10-2

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14901452
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14771481

L, 7-6

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14921451
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7+31
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+21
Adjusted team rating14831503

W, 12-5

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14881517
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-21-20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14911497

W, 5-0

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14851520
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+27
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15081547

W, 10-3

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14811523
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+29+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15341526

W, 4-2

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14791561
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3-28
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15061533

L, 9-3

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14821559
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26+2
Adjusted team rating15001557

L, 8-1

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14851556
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-17-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+23-3
Adjusted team rating14911544

W, 6-4

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14831491
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+31-16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15141499

L, 12-11

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14841490
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14871502

W, 9-4

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14811493
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10-20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating14691497

W, 7-2

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14781495
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14791524

W, 4-0

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14741498
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-25-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+22
Adjusted team rating14471512

W, 11-4

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14711501
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15021490

W, 5-4

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14701502
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+31-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15251497

W, 6-5

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14691507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5-27
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14981480

L, 4-1

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14701505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10+21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14841526

W, 8-4

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14681508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-29-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14631493

L, 4-1

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14701505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+20-3
Adjusted team rating15001488

W, 5-2

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14681453
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+27-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14951475

L, 3-0

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14701451
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3+20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+26
Adjusted team rating14731497

L, 6-5

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14711472
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-28-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14431486

L, 5-4

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14721471
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+14-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14861490

W, 6-3

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14701473
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+20
Adjusted team rating14761475

L, 6-5

38%

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14711597
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+29-35
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15001586

L, 6-2

33%

67%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14731595
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5-16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14781603

L, 6-4

30%

70%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14741594
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-28-32
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-4+24
Adjusted team rating14421586

vs. Tigers

L, 9-6

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14761493
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+12-19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15121474

W, 6-5

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14751495
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13-20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14861475

L, 6-3

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14771492
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+34-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-2
Adjusted team rating15371481

W, 6-1

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14741531
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14991529

L, 6-3

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14761529
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-27-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14731516

W, 4-2

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14741531
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-3
Adjusted team rating15031521

L, 5-3

30%

70%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14751591
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-14-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14611612

W, 4-2

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14731593
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+37-29
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15101588

L, 10-5

33%

67%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14741592
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+6+30
Adjusted team rating14871612

L, 11-5

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14781475
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-9-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14931474

L, 5-1

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14811472
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15101465

W, 9-6

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14791474
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3+14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15001488

W, 6-4

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14771476
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4+19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15051493

vs. Angels

L, 2-1

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14791506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+32-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15351492

W, 5-4

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14771508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14891498

W, 9-5

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14741510
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-4
Adjusted team rating15001511

L, 6-2

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14771492
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14751505

W, 10-5

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14731495
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14731517

L, 11-6

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14761492
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14861503

L, 8-1

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14791489
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+37+19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+21
Adjusted team rating15131529

L, 6-3

37%

63%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14811535
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-14+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14671562

W, 4-1

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14781538
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14731550

L, 9-2

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14811535
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14771556

L, 4-1

34%

66%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14821534
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+9+48
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating14881606

W, 4-0

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14791548
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+35-26
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15141546

W, 4-2

30%

70%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14761550
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13+40
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14631614

W, 5-0

35%

65%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14721554
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+22
Adjusted team rating14591564

L, 9-0

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14761482
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-18+21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14821503

W, 4-2

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14741484
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15021488

W, 9-7

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14731485
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+42-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-1
Adjusted team rating15411478

L, 5-2

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14751546
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14861532

L, 6-2

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14771544
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11-16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14901528

L, 9-3

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14801541
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-17-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14871526

L, 8-1

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14831538
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10+21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating14971556

W, 6-2

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14801521
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5+16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14991537

L, 6-4

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14821519
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+450
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15511519

W, 20-7

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14761525
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14871510

L, 14-3

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14811520
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5-19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+20-3
Adjusted team rating14961498

L, 13-8

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14841492
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7-36
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14771480

W, 3-2

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14821493
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14741526

W, 4-0

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14791496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+39-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+20
Adjusted team rating15151503

W, 2-1

40%

60%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14781526
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-17-16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14611534

L, 6-5

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14791525
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3-21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14761528

L, 12-3

35%

65%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14811522
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4+35
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+26
Adjusted team rating14761583

W, 3-2

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14801499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-9-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14711517

L, 7-2

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14831496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+48+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15311532

W, 11-5

40%

60%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14791500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-21+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14581531

W, 4-2

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14761503
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-4+24
Adjusted team rating14641513

vs. Astros

L, 17-6

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14801574
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1-25
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15031549

L, 7-2

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14831572
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11-26
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14961546

L, 16-8

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14871567
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+47-20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15581544

vs. Rays

L, 8-6

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14881514
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-230
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14891514

W, 5-3

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14871516
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14991526

L, 5-2

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14891514
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+23-3
Adjusted team rating15111526

W, 4-3

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14871506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14761541

W, 2-0

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14851508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+43+17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15281549

W, 14-7

40%

60%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14801512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-18-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating14591528

vs. Royals

W, 8-4

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14781468
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11+13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14911481

L, 6-4

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14801466
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11-19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26+2
Adjusted team rating14951449

W, 4-3

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14791467
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15041465

W, 2-0

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14771504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-230
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14781504

L, 5-1

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14801501
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+45-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26+2
Adjusted team rating15511501

L, 7-3

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14831499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+23-1
Adjusted team rating14981491

L, 8-3

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14851545
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10-23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14951546

W, 4-1

36%

64%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14821548
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-35-24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14471548

W, 1-0

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14801549
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+42-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15201555

W, 7-6

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14791481
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+2+26
Adjusted team rating14761514

W, 7-2

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14761484
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10-28
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+23
Adjusted team rating14861479

L, 17-6

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14801534
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+48+46
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15521580

L, 11-1

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14841530
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15001534

W, 4-3

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14831531
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating14971526

L, 8-5

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14851475
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-18-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14911468

W, 7-4

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14831477
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15151486

W, 9-1

62%

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14801480
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+45-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-1
Adjusted team rating15491466

W, 7-5

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14791461
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+2+26
Adjusted team rating14731474

W, 6-4

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14771463
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-17+17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14601504

L, 14-3

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14801507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7+13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14871544

W, 8-1

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14771510
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+43-31
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15201503

W, 3-2

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14751512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating14621523

vs. Tigers

L, 13-4

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14791500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10+28
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14931528

L, 5-4

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14811499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10-20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating14951479

W, 6-3

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14781501
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6+37
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15081535

L, 6-2

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14811548
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+41-16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26+2
Adjusted team rating15481534

L, 11-4

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14841545
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7-23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15011522

L, 3-1

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14861543
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-100
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15001540

L, 3-1

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14881478
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1-26
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15131452

W, 6-0

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14851480
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+34+22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15431502

L, 2-1

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14861479
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-3
Adjusted team rating14961462

W, 11-5

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14831510
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3-22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14801512

L, 5-3

38%

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14841509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7+27
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14771560

L, 2-1

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14851507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1-32
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14861499

W, 4-1

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14831476
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+32+22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15151522

L, 6-2

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14851474
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7+14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14781512

W, 3-1

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14841476
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating14771497

vs. Royals

W, 5-3

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14821470
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15021462

W, 9-1

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14781473
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26+2
Adjusted team rating15041487

W, 7-1

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14761476
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+30+13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15301487

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game. Methodology »

For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB »

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