Updated Sep. 24, 2017 at 12:05 AM

2017 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Rays have a <1% chance of making the playoffs.twitter bird

Their team rating is 1502, up 8 points from last week.

AL East standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
YankeesYankees86-684.03%
Red SoxRed Sox90-6497%
RaysRays76-7914.5<1%
Blue JaysBlue Jays72-8318.5
OriolesOrioles74-8217.0

Upcoming games

Archer vs. Bundy

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021484
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7+27
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15091535

Snell vs. Severino

36%

64%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021559
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6+24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15081607

Andriese vs. Tanaka

37%

63%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021559
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-130
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14891583

Cobb vs. Gray

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021559
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15121587

Odorizzi vs. Ynoa

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021484
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6+15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-1
Adjusted team rating15171498

Archer vs. Hellickson

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021484
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15331480

Snell vs. Jimenez

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021484
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15321471

Team rating

Starting pitchers

Pitcher score Adjustment to team ratingAdj. to
team rating
Alex Cobb
Alex Cobb52.6+10
Chris Archer
Chris Archer52.1+7
Blake Snell
Blake Snell51.8+6
Jake Odorizzi
Jake Odorizzi49.3-6
Matt Andriese
Matt Andriese47.7-13

Completed games

W, 9-6

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15001487
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14901506

W, 8-3

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14971490
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+12-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15091506

L, 3-1

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14991488
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-14+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating14821519

vs. Cubs

W, 8-1

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14951552
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15211548

L, 2-1

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14961550
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8-16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-1
Adjusted team rating15301533

W, 3-2

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14941555
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15061552

L, 3-1

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14961553
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15-22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15351531

L, 13-6

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14991550
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12+42
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-3
Adjusted team rating15131589

L, 3-2

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15001550
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10-26
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest00
Adjusted team rating15101524

W, 2-1

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14991552
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest00
Adjusted team rating15001559

L, 5-1

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15011550
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3-3
Adjusted team rating14881546

W, 4-1

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14981551
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+13-23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15111552

L, 9-0

34%

66%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15011549
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5+41
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14961614

L, 9-3

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15031546
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+16-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+26
Adjusted team rating15181571

vs. Twins

L, 10-6

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15311504

W, 2-1

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051501
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-20-21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15091480

W, 11-4

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-3
Adjusted team rating15311510

L, 6-2

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041447
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15011475

L, 5-4

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061446
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+22+27
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15281497

W, 3-1

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041447
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+22
Adjusted team rating15041465

W, 5-3

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021487
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-20+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14821515

L, 6-2

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051484
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15121512

W, 12-0

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14991490
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-22-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+21
Adjusted team rating14751508

W, 3-2

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14981516
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+21+14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15191554

L, 6-4

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14991514
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14971520

W, 7-3

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14961517
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-17-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating14761535

W, 2-0

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14951496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8-36
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15271460

L, 7-6

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14961494
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10+26
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15101520

W, 6-5

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14951496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+19-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-1
Adjusted team rating15401489

W, 3-0

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14931513
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-9-21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15081492

L, 7-6

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14941512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-9+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15091515

L, 7-1

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14981508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-2
Adjusted team rating15171512

L, 5-3

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15001497
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15171515

L, 3-2

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15011496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5+24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15061544

W, 6-4

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14991498
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14881531

L, 2-1

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15001497
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12-22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating14851499

L, 4-3

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15011552
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3+51
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15221603

L, 3-0

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15031550
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17-22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15441528

L, 5-0

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061547
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15381539

W, 4-1

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041549
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15131539

L, 8-2

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071547
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15201534

L, 2-0

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081545
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6+49
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-1
Adjusted team rating15281593

W, 2-1

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+16+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15471516

L, 3-0

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101501
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+40
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15381501

L, 2-0

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-3
Adjusted team rating15381483

W, 5-3

34%

66%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091576
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14971610

W, 3-0

31%

69%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061580
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12+28
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14941632

W, 6-4

38%

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041582
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+19+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15231607

L, 14-7

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061579
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+14-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+21
Adjusted team rating15171593

W, 5-3

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041541
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15101564

L, 5-4

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051539
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13-25
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14921538

L, 6-1

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071537
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14961563

L, 6-5

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091536
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15231569

W, 5-1

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071485
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15421478

W, 5-4

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051486
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15351474

L, 5-0

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091483
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-14+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15191490

L, 6-5

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101514
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15261509

L, 4-3

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121513
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+16-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15521502

L, 4-3

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131511
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10+36
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-3
Adjusted team rating15451544

L, 7-2

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15161478
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15271514

W, 4-3

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15151480
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15021496

W, 3-2

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141481
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12-22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15001483

L, 4-3

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15151502
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+16-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15311520

W, 6-3

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+9-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15221521

W, 2-1

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+5+30
Adjusted team rating15281528

W, 5-3

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101547
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15521554

W, 1-0

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081549
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15361536

L, 8-3

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111546
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-50
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15301546

W, 4-1

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081549
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10+50
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-3
Adjusted team rating15391596

at Cubs

L, 7-3

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111540
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-14-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14971553

W, 6-5

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091542
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+20+25
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+24
Adjusted team rating15281591

L, 7-1

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121480
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15191510

W, 10-3

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081484
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4+23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15041531

W, 6-4

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071486
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+22
Adjusted team rating15111497

L, 4-0

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091493
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+21+22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15301539

L, 6-2

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111491
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12+19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14991534

W, 4-2

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101493
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+23
Adjusted team rating15101513

L, 8-5

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121481
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15351475

L, 8-3

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15161478
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7+24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15471502

W, 15-5

62%

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131481
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+25+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-3
Adjusted team rating15641480

vs. Reds

W, 8-3

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101463
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-9+20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15251483

W, 6-5

63%

37%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091464
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2-22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15311442

L, 7-3

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121461
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0+17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-3
Adjusted team rating15331475

W, 9-1

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1-25
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15081503

W, 3-2

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+25+31
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15321560

L, 13-4

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111501
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15111520

L, 5-3

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3+24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15081548

L, 7-6

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141513
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15171519

W, 8-1

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101518
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-9+17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+22
Adjusted team rating15001557

W, 5-4

62%

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091475
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+26-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15591472

L, 7-2

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121472
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2+28
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15341500

W, 6-5

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111473
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15361472

W, 13-4

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071476
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15251475

W, 7-5

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061478
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15331477

W, 3-1

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041479
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-16-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15121469

L, 4-2

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071477
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+25+17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-1
Adjusted team rating15541493

L, 7-1

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091519
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15141550

L, 9-2

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131516
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15171534

L, 12-4

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15171512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15251521

W, 7-5

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15151513
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+20-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15351519

L, 9-5

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15181511
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4-32
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15141503

W, 10-8

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15161512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+21
Adjusted team rating15181530

W, 8-6

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141488
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0-23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15141489

L, 5-3

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15161487
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15261499

W, 5-2

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141489
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+23
Adjusted team rating15261511

vs. Angels

W, 4-0

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8-17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15281490

W, 5-2

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15401508

L, 4-0

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15411515

L, 3-2

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15151504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+12-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15511500

L, 3-2

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15161529
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15551531

W, 9-5

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131532
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15321543

W, 5-4

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121533
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+23-3
Adjusted team rating15401519

W, 7-4

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101546
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15111559

W, 6-4

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081548
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+14-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15221563

L, 8-7

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091547
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+21+30
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15271601

W, 11-2

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041535
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14971548

L, 6-3

34%

66%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051533
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15+47
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14901604

W, 5-4

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15031535
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+21
Adjusted team rating14991563

vs. Royals

L, 6-0

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071460
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+13+15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15441475

W, 12-1

63%

37%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041463
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+16-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15441449

L, 7-6

64%

36%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061461
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5-33
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15251428

L, 7-3

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091458
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15231449

L, 2-1

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3-26
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15321479

W, 6-1

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11+27
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15431535

L, 8-4

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-1
Adjusted team rating15501492

W, 5-1

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8+20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15251519

L, 10-6

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-2
Adjusted team rating15271499

W, 3-1

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101498
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15061511

W, 4-2

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+12+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15171531

L, 3-1

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101503
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+14+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15241537

L, 4-1

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121501
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15051510

W, 7-4

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091503
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+21
Adjusted team rating15041526

L, 5-4

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15101548

W, 2-0

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081511
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-17+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14911539

L, 6-3

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15261531

vs. Astros

L, 6-4

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121550
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15301532

W, 6-3

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101552
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5-16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15291536

L, 6-3

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121550
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15341536

vs. Tigers

W, 8-1

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15371500

W, 8-7

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+19-23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15511482

W, 5-1

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8+29
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-1
Adjusted team rating15181536

L, 4-3

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071535
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15031541

L, 7-5

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081534
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15111555

L, 2-1

40%

60%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091533
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10+34
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15191591

W, 10-5

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061536
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+24+18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15281578

L, 3-2

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071511
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12-26
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14951509

L, 8-4

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+2+26
Adjusted team rating15051516

L, 8-1

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+22
Adjusted team rating15121534

W, 7-2

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101518
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8+17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15421535

W, 3-2

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091519
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+23+13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15561532

W, 10-8

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071521
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15231503

L, 5-2

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091519
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15281512

W, 4-1

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15321517

L, 5-0

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26+2
Adjusted team rating15471517

W, 7-3

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+21+31
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15531534

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game. Methodology »

For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB »

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