Updated Nov. 2, 2017 at 12:02 AM

2017 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Rays are done for the season.twitter bird

Team rating

Starting pitchers

Pitcher score Adjustment to team ratingAdj. to
team rating
Alex Cobb
Alex Cobb52.6+10
Blake Snell
Blake Snell52.1+8
Chris Archer
Chris Archer51.5+5
Jacob Faria
Jacob Faria50.2-2
Jake Odorizzi
Jake Odorizzi49.9-3
Matt Andriese
Matt Andriese47.7-13

Completed games

W, 6-0

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15031477
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+26
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15281503

W, 4-3

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15011478
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15291484

W, 7-0

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14981481
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-1
Adjusted team rating15161471

W, 9-6

37%

63%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14951563
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15011591

L, 6-1

33%

67%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14971561
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11+25
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14861610

L, 6-1

40%

60%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14991559
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15061580

L, 9-4

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021484
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7-22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15091486

W, 9-6

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15001487
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14901506

W, 8-3

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14971490
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+12-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15091506

L, 3-1

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14991488
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-14+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating14821519

vs. Cubs

W, 8-1

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14951552
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15211548

L, 2-1

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14961550
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8-16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-1
Adjusted team rating15301533

W, 3-2

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14941555
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15061552

L, 3-1

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14961553
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15-22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15351531

L, 13-6

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14991550
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12+42
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-3
Adjusted team rating15131589

L, 3-2

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15001550
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10-26
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest00
Adjusted team rating15101524

W, 2-1

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14991552
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest00
Adjusted team rating15001559

L, 5-1

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15011550
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3-3
Adjusted team rating14881546

W, 4-1

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14981551
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+13-23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15111552

L, 9-0

34%

66%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15011549
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5+41
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14961614

L, 9-3

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15031546
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+16-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+26
Adjusted team rating15181571

vs. Twins

L, 10-6

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15311504

W, 2-1

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051501
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-20-21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15091480

W, 11-4

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-3
Adjusted team rating15311510

L, 6-2

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041447
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15011475

L, 5-4

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061446
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+22+27
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15281497

W, 3-1

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041447
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+22
Adjusted team rating15041465

W, 5-3

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15021487
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-20+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14821515

L, 6-2

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051484
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15121512

W, 12-0

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14991490
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-22-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+21
Adjusted team rating14751508

W, 3-2

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14981516
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+21+14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15191554

L, 6-4

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14991514
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14971520

W, 7-3

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14961517
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-17-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating14761535

W, 2-0

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14951496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8-36
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15271460

L, 7-6

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14961494
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10+26
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15101520

W, 6-5

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14951496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+19-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-1
Adjusted team rating15401489

W, 3-0

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14931513
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-9-21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15081492

L, 7-6

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14941512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-9+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15091515

L, 7-1

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14981508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-2
Adjusted team rating15171512

L, 5-3

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15001497
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15171515

L, 3-2

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15011496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5+24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15061544

W, 6-4

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating14991498
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14881531

L, 2-1

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15001497
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12-22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating14851499

L, 4-3

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15011552
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3+51
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15221603

L, 3-0

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15031550
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17-22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15441528

L, 5-0

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061547
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15381539

W, 4-1

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041549
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15131539

L, 8-2

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071547
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15201534

L, 2-0

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081545
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6+49
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-1
Adjusted team rating15281593

W, 2-1

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+16+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15471516

L, 3-0

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101501
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+40
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15381501

L, 2-0

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-3
Adjusted team rating15381483

W, 5-3

34%

66%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091576
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14971610

W, 3-0

31%

69%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061580
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12+28
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14941632

W, 6-4

38%

62%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041582
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+19+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15231607

L, 14-7

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061579
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+14-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+21
Adjusted team rating15171593

W, 5-3

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041541
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15101564

L, 5-4

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051539
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13-25
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14921538

L, 6-1

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071537
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14961563

L, 6-5

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091536
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15231569

W, 5-1

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071485
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15421478

W, 5-4

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051486
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15351474

L, 5-0

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091483
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-14+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15191490

L, 6-5

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101514
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15261509

L, 4-3

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121513
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+16-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15521502

L, 4-3

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131511
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10+36
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-3
Adjusted team rating15451544

L, 7-2

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15161478
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15271514

W, 4-3

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15151480
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15021496

W, 3-2

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141481
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12-22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15001483

L, 4-3

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15151502
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+16-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15311520

W, 6-3

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+9-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15221521

W, 2-1

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11-7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+5+30
Adjusted team rating15281528

W, 5-3

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101547
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15521554

W, 1-0

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081549
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15361536

L, 8-3

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111546
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-50
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15301546

W, 4-1

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081549
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10+50
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-3
Adjusted team rating15391596

at Cubs

L, 7-3

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111540
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-14-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14971553

W, 6-5

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091542
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+20+25
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+24
Adjusted team rating15281591

L, 7-1

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121480
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15191510

W, 10-3

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081484
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4+23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15041531

W, 6-4

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071486
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+22
Adjusted team rating15111497

L, 4-0

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091493
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+21+22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15301539

L, 6-2

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111491
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12+19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14991534

W, 4-2

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101493
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+23
Adjusted team rating15101513

L, 8-5

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121481
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15351475

L, 8-3

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15161478
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+7+24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15471502

W, 15-5

62%

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131481
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+25+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-3
Adjusted team rating15641480

vs. Reds

W, 8-3

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101463
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-9+20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15251483

W, 6-5

63%

37%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091464
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2-22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15311442

L, 7-3

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121461
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0+17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-3
Adjusted team rating15331475

W, 9-1

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1-25
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15081503

W, 3-2

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+25+31
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15321560

L, 13-4

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111501
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15111520

L, 5-3

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3+24
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15081548

L, 7-6

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141513
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15171519

W, 8-1

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101518
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-9+17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+22
Adjusted team rating15001557

W, 5-4

62%

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091475
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+26-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15591472

L, 7-2

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121472
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2+28
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15341500

W, 6-5

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111473
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15361472

W, 13-4

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071476
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15251475

W, 7-5

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061478
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15331477

W, 3-1

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041479
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-16-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15121469

L, 4-2

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071477
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+25+17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-1
Adjusted team rating15541493

L, 7-1

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091519
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15141550

L, 9-2

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131516
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15171534

L, 12-4

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15171512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15251521

W, 7-5

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15151513
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+20-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15351519

L, 9-5

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15181511
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4-32
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15141503

W, 10-8

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15161512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+21
Adjusted team rating15181530

W, 8-6

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141488
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality0-23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15141489

L, 5-3

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15161487
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15261499

W, 5-2

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15141489
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+23
Adjusted team rating15261511

vs. Angels

W, 4-0

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8-17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15281490

W, 5-2

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+6-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15401508

L, 4-0

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15411515

L, 3-2

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15151504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+12-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15511500

L, 3-2

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15161529
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15551531

W, 9-5

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131532
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15321543

W, 5-4

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121533
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+5-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+23-3
Adjusted team rating15401519

W, 7-4

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101546
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15111559

W, 6-4

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081548
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+14-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15221563

L, 8-7

39%

61%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091547
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+21+30
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15271601

W, 11-2

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041535
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14971548

L, 6-3

34%

66%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051533
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15+47
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14901604

W, 5-4

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15031535
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+21
Adjusted team rating14991563

vs. Royals

L, 6-0

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071460
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+13+15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15441475

W, 12-1

63%

37%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15041463
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+16-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15441449

L, 7-6

64%

36%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061461
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5-33
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15251428

L, 7-3

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091458
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15231449

L, 2-1

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3-26
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15321479

W, 6-1

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11+27
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15431535

L, 8-4

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-1
Adjusted team rating15501492

W, 5-1

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8+20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15251519

L, 10-6

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-2
Adjusted team rating15271499

W, 3-1

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101498
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15061511

W, 4-2

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+12+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15171531

L, 3-1

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101503
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+14+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15241537

L, 4-1

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121501
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-7-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15051510

W, 7-4

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091503
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+21
Adjusted team rating15041526

L, 5-4

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15101548

W, 2-0

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081511
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-17+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14911539

L, 6-3

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15111508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15261531

vs. Astros

L, 6-4

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121550
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15301532

W, 6-3

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101552
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5-16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15291536

L, 6-3

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15121550
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2-11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15341536

vs. Tigers

W, 8-1

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15371500

W, 8-7

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+19-23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15511482

W, 5-1

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15051508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8+29
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-1
Adjusted team rating15181536

L, 4-3

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071535
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15031541

L, 7-5

44%

56%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081534
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+3-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15111555

L, 2-1

40%

60%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091533
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10+34
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15191591

W, 10-5

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15061536
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+24+18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15281578

L, 3-2

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071511
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12-26
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14951509

L, 8-4

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+2+26
Adjusted team rating15051516

L, 8-1

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15131505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+22
Adjusted team rating15121534

W, 7-2

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101518
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8+17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15421535

W, 3-2

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091519
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+23+13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15561532

W, 10-8

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071521
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15231503

L, 5-2

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15091519
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15281512

W, 4-1

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15071507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15321517

L, 5-0

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15101504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26+2
Adjusted team rating15471517

W, 7-3

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15081506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+21+31
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15531534

AL East standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
Red SoxRed Sox93-69
YankeesYankees91-712.0
RaysRays80-8213.0
Blue JaysBlue Jays76-8617.0
OriolesOrioles75-8718.0

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game. Methodology »

For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB »

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