Updated Sep. 24, 2017 at 12:05 AM

2017 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Nationals have a 100% chance of making the playoffs.twitter bird

Their team rating is 1557, up 4 points from last week.

NL East standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
NationalsNationals93-61
BravesBraves70-8322.5
MetsMets66-8827.0
MarlinsMarlins73-8120.0
PhilliesPhillies61-9432.5

Upcoming games

at Mets

Scherzer vs. deGrom

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15571464
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+35+39
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15921527

Cole vs. Nola

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15571460
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-30+32
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+21
Adjusted team rating15261513

Gonzalez vs. Thompson

64%

36%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15571460
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15681471

Roark vs. Leiter Jr.

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15571460
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15491475

Jackson vs. Brault

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15571474
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-62-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-2
Adjusted team rating15171470

Strasburg vs. Nova

69%

31%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15571474
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+30-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating16111470

Scherzer vs. Cole

68%

32%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15571474
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+35+14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating16161488

Gonzalez vs. Taillon

66%

34%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15571474
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+110
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15921474

Team rating

Starting pitchers

Pitcher score Adjustment to team ratingAdj. to
team rating
Max Scherzer
Max Scherzer60.8+35
Stephen Strasburg
Stephen Strasburg59.8+30
Gio Gonzalez
Gio Gonzalez55.8+11
Tanner Roark
Tanner Roark51.6-8
A.J. Cole
A.J. Cole47.1-30
Edwin Jackson
Edwin Jackson40.3-62

Completed games

at Mets

W, 4-3

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15561465
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+33+55
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15891544

L, 7-6

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15571464
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-59-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+23
Adjusted team rating14951477

L, 3-2

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15591470
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-12+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15471495

W, 7-3

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15571472
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+9-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15661490

W, 4-2

62%

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15561473
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+34+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+26
Adjusted team rating15891501

W, 7-1

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15531568
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+32-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating16091553

L, 3-2

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15551567
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-29+13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15501580

L, 7-0

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15581563
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-52+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating15301562

vs. Braves

W, 5-2

62%

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15561480
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15651483

L, 8-2

71%

29%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15611474
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+38-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating16231471

L, 8-0

67%

33%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15671469
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+10+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-1
Adjusted team rating16031479

W, 3-2

71%

29%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15661450
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+23+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating16131455

L, 5-4

65%

35%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15681448
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-48-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15441436

W, 11-10

76%

24%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15681449
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+42-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating16341436

W, 4-3

64%

36%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15671450
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-16+27
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-2
Adjusted team rating15721475

W, 8-1

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15641491
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8+14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15721529

W, 2-1

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15631492
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+190
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15821516

W, 7-2

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15601495
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-33+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15241525

L, 7-2

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15631501
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-49-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15141515

W, 3-2

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15621502
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+420
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating16041526

L, 1-0

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15631501
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-19+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15441533

L, 6-3

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15661498
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+12+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15751534

W, 4-0

63%

37%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15641503
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+14+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating16021510

W, 8-3

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15611505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-48-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15371503

W, 11-2

66%

34%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15591508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+43+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating16261514

vs. Mets

W, 5-4

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15581485
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-200
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15621485

L, 6-5

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15601484
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-47-20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15371464

W, 9-4

68%

32%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15581485
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+14-17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15961468

L, 4-2

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15601483
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-38+38
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-2
Adjusted team rating15431519

W, 5-4

45%

55%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15581562
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11+22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15691608

L, 6-1

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15611560
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-48-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15131574

W, 4-3

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15591561
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-22+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+26
Adjusted team rating15361590

W, 4-1

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15571450
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+14+21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15711495

L, 3-1

65%

35%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15601447
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+12-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15721463

W, 7-1

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15571450
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-29-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15281469

W, 2-1

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15561451
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-50+19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-4+24
Adjusted team rating15021494

vs. Angels

L, 3-2

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15581517
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-21-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15611503

W, 3-1

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15561518
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+13+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-2
Adjusted team rating15951523

vs. Giants

W, 6-2

72%

28%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15551476
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+45-18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating16241458

L, 4-2

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15581473
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-38-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15441463

W, 3-1

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15561475
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-52-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26+1
Adjusted team rating15301463

W, 3-2

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15551497
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-21+17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15581514

W, 10-1

62%

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15521500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15871505

L, 7-3

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15551497
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-37+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15421500

W, 3-2

68%

32%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15541498
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+45-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-3
Adjusted team rating16201491

at Cubs

W, 9-4

40%

60%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15511545
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-39+13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15121582

L, 7-4

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15521544
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-55-8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14971560

W, 4-2

41%

59%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15501546
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-22+19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+24
Adjusted team rating15271589

L, 7-0

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15541496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-32-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15221518

L, 7-6

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15561495
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+46+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating16021528

W, 1-0

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15541496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15551523

W, 3-1

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15521515
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-61+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15151520

L, 10-6

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15551512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-300
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15491512

L, 4-2

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15581510
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-22+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26+2
Adjusted team rating15621523

W, 15-2

69%

31%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15551502
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+46-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating16251488

W, 8-5

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15531504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15781512

L, 8-0

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15571499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-58-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+220
Adjusted team rating15211493

W, 6-2

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15551524
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+12+10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15671558

W, 4-3

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15531525
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-28-20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15251529

L, 6-5

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15551524
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+53-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+20
Adjusted team rating16081541

L, 7-0

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15591501
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+2+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15611526

W, 4-3

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15581503
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-63-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-4+26
Adjusted team rating14911517

at Reds

W, 6-1

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15551459
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+8+27
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15631510

W, 14-4

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15511463
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-31+14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15201501

W, 10-7

63%

37%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15501464
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+53+22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating16031510

W, 5-0

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15471467
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+7+29
Adjusted team rating15531505

vs. Braves

W, 10-5

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15451477
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-24+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15451480

L, 13-0

66%

34%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15531470
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+16+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15931474

W, 5-4

71%

29%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15521470
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+54+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating16301477

L, 5-2

64%

36%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15551467
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-3
Adjusted team rating15801476

vs. Mets

W, 11-4

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15521503
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-26+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15501504

W, 3-2

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15511504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+12+23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+21-2
Adjusted team rating15841525

W, 7-2

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15481505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+52+34
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating16001563

L, 2-1

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15501504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3-21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15471507

L, 8-1

50%

50%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15531500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-26+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+21
Adjusted team rating15241526

vs. Cubs

L, 5-4

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15551543
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-26+23
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15531566

W, 8-4

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15531545
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+11-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15881540

W, 6-1

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15501548
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+51+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating16251555

L, 5-4

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15521546
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-4-37
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15721506

vs. Reds

L, 6-2

62%

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15561455
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-21+21
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15591476

W, 18-3

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15511460
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-28+27
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15471487

W, 6-5

66%

34%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15501461
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+23-1
Adjusted team rating15901471

L, 2-1

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15521495
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+48+26
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating16001545

W, 12-3

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15481499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15431527

L, 8-7

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15491497
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15-14
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+21
Adjusted team rating15311504

at Mets

L, 5-1

48%

52%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15521498
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-28+16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15241538

W, 7-4

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15501500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15671533

W, 7-2

56%

44%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15471503
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+44+22
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15911549

W, 8-3

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15451506
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15351515

vs. Braves

L, 13-2

63%

37%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15511463
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-9+9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15661472

W, 10-5

62%

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15491465
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-25-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15481463

L, 11-10

67%

33%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15511463
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+21+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15961471

L, 5-1

67%

33%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15551511
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+41-17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating16201494

L, 6-3

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15581508
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15671499

L, 5-2

63%

37%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15611505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-5-15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-1
Adjusted team rating15801489

W, 6-1

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15581504
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-32+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+20-1
Adjusted team rating15461509

L, 2-1

42%

58%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15591564
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+22+48
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15811636

W, 2-1

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15581565
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+39-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15971580

W, 4-2

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15561567
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15-27
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+20
Adjusted team rating15391560

W, 11-10

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15551475
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-3-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15521493

L, 10-4

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15591471
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-25-27
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15341468

W, 13-3

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15561474
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+22+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+1+20
Adjusted team rating15791502

W, 3-1

65%

35%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15541494
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+35-34
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15891484

W, 6-3

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15521496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15371524

W, 3-0

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15501498
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-6-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-4+24
Adjusted team rating15401510

vs. Padres

L, 5-3

67%

33%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15531430
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-18+6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15591436

W, 3-0

72%

28%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15521431
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18+1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15941432

W, 5-1

73%

27%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15511432
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+32-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-2
Adjusted team rating16071429

L, 4-2

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15531505
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-15+4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15621509

W, 5-1

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15511507
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-80
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15671507

W, 10-1

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15481511
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-19-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+23-2
Adjusted team rating15521499

W, 3-2

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15471474
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18-3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15651495

L, 5-2

64%

36%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15501471
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+38-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15881491

L, 7-4

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15521469
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-10+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+24
Adjusted team rating15401495

L, 10-4

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15561489
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1-36
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15551477

L, 6-1

46%

54%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15591487
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-59+20
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15001531

W, 8-4

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15571489
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+16-9
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+22
Adjusted team rating15731502

W, 6-5

70%

30%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15561464
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+37+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating16171466

L, 4-3

63%

37%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15581462
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-14+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15681474

W, 6-4

69%

31%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15571463
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1-19
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+29+3
Adjusted team rating15871447

W, 7-6

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15561518
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18+2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+23-1
Adjusted team rating15971519

L, 5-4

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15581516
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+35-10
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15931530

L, 6-4

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15601514
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-9-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+24
Adjusted team rating15501536

L, 6-5

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15621465
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-2+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15601501

W, 6-2

55%

45%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15591468
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-35-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15241491

W, 4-2

64%

36%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15581469
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18-17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+21
Adjusted team rating15741473

W, 4-2

68%

32%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15571502
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+31-17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating16121485

W, 2-1

59%

41%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15561503
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-8+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15721508

L, 6-3

62%

38%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15591500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26-2
Adjusted team rating15861503

vs. Mets

W, 23-5

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15531514
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-19+29
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15581543

L, 5-3

64%

36%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15551512
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18-13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15971499

L, 7-5

63%

37%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15581509
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+35+13
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+20-2
Adjusted team rating16131520

W, 16-5

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15531491
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-11+8
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15421523

W, 11-4

53%

47%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15501494
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-1+7
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15491525

W, 15-12

54%

46%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15481496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-17-16
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15311504

L, 8-4

43%

57%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15501494
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-67+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-4+24
Adjusted team rating14791530

at Mets

W, 6-3

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15491517
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+35-17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15841524

W, 3-1

47%

53%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15471519
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-14+12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15331555

W, 4-3

51%

49%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15451520
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-3+24
Adjusted team rating15431538

W, 3-2

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15441471
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17-1
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15611494

W, 14-4

49%

51%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15401475
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-17+30
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15231529

W, 3-1

61%

39%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15381476
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+34-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-1+24
Adjusted team rating15711495

W, 6-4

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15371459
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-13+18
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15481477

L, 4-2

63%

37%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15391456
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+15
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15641471

W, 3-2

68%

32%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15391457
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+18-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+260
Adjusted team rating15831453

L, 6-1

65%

35%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15431494
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+35-2
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating16021492

W, 8-3

57%

43%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15401496
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-14+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15501499

W, 14-6

60%

40%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15371499
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+4-4
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+22-3
Adjusted team rating15631492

L, 4-3

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15391462
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+17+11
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating15561497

L, 17-3

52%

48%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15451456
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-57-6
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest0+24
Adjusted team rating14881474

W, 7-6

63%

37%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15441457
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+32+3
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest-2+22
Adjusted team rating15741482

L, 4-3

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15461497
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality-19-5
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+240
Adjusted team rating15511492

W, 6-4

58%

42%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15441498
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+1+17
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+26+2
Adjusted team rating15711517

W, 4-2

64%

36%

Chance of winning calculated from adjusted team rating

Team rating15431500
Pitcher adjustmentAdjust for pitcher quality+15-12
Home field, travel and restAdjust for home field, travel and rest+24-3
Adjusted team rating15821485

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game. Methodology »

For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB »

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